Tropical Weather Discussion

000 
axpz20 knhc 190908
twdep 

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Mar 19 2019

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...Special features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: a ridge across east and 
southeast Mexico will support strong offshore gap winds across 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu night, pulsing to minimal 
gale force in early morning hours. Strong to near gale force 
winds will continue to spill across the Tehuantepec region for 
the next few days to maintain the strong winds on the Pacific 
side of The Isthmus. Seas will build to around 12 ft during peak 
winds, and spread large seas 8 ft or more downstream to near 
12n97w each night. 

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers fzpn03 knhc/hsfep2 or 
at website https://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/text/miahsfep2.Shtml for 
further details.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...

A trough extends from 09n85w to 05n93w. The ITCZ continues from 
05n93w to 01.5n105w to 01n140w. Scattered moderate showers are 
within 30 nm of the ITCZ axis between 95w and 100w.

...Discussion...

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...  

Please see the special features section above for more details 
about the developing Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Gulf of california: light to gentle winds prevail across the 
Gulf as a weak pressure gradient dominates the region. A weak 
cold front will approach the northern Gulf late tonight into 
Wed. This will enhance moderate to fresh S to SW gap winds north 
of 29n that will continue into Wed night. Otherwise, light to 
moderate winds will prevail across the region through Fri night. 

Elsewhere, high pressure centered west of Baja California is
supporting moderate N to NW winds over the northern waters that 
will persist through tonight. NW swell associated with a dying 
cold front will spread across the area tonight through Wed night 
with seas building to 11 ft off Baja California norte. NW swell 
will reach the revillagigedo islands Thu, then gradually decay 
through late week.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Gulf of papagayo: the pressure gradient across Central America 
has begun to weaken but continues to support occasional strong 
offshore gap winds across the Gulf of papagayo, with downstream 
seas to 8 ft. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across 
the Gulf through Fri night, maximizing each night. 

Gulf of panama: fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama 
today will diminish to moderate to fresh tonight Tue through 
midweek.

Between Ecuador and the galapagos islands, 5-7 ft seas in SW 
swell will persist through early Wed. Elsewhere, generally light 
to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas will prevail for the next 
several days. 

Remainder of the area... 

A cold front extends from 30n128w to 19n138w this morning. Fresh 
to strong southerly winds will continue along and within 60 nm 
east of the front this morning north of 25n as the front moves 
eastward. Large NW swell behind the front is producing seas to 
18 ft across the far NW waters, and will propagate across the 
region with 8 ft seas reaching to near 120w by Tue night. 

Elsewhere, weak high pressure centered near 26n119w anchors a 
broad ridge axis that extends southeast toward the revillagigedo 
islands. The gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ supports 
moderate to fresh trade winds mainly S of 18n and west of 116w 
to the ITCZ. Seas across this region are 7-8 ft with NW and SW 
swell combining with NE wind waves. High pressure will build 
across the far northwest waters Wed and move eastward through 
Fri night behind a cold front. The stronger pressure gradient 
will increase trade winds S of 20n to the ITCZ with seas to 11 
ft on Wed in mixed NW and NE swell. Another cold front will 
approach from the northwest toward the end of the week with more 
large long period NW swell.

$$
Mundell


		
		

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