Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 241027

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 am EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...Tropical waves...

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa with an axis near 23w 
S of 11n moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are seen near
the wave extending from 04n-06n between 21w-24w.

A tropical wave is located over the central Atlantic with an axis
near 43w S of 10n moving W around 10-15 kt. No significant 
convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is located to the east of the Lesser Antilles with
an axis near 60w S of 18n moving W around 10-15 kt. This feature
is apparent in the tpw and with a wind shift apparent in the
latest ascat pass. 

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea near 70w S of 16n
moving W around 10-15 kt. Associated convection is confined to 
inland areas over northwest Venezuela with scattered showers 
elsewhere near the wave axis between 14n-16n.

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Guinea near 10n13w and
continues to 06n22w to 05n32w. The ITCZ begins near 05n32w and 
continues to 06n42w, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 
06n44w to near the coast of French Guiana near 05n53w. Aside from 
the convection described near the tropical waves, scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near the monsoon
trough from 04n-06n between 09w-16w in addition to an area from
05n-07n between 25w-31w. Showers are also seen near the ITCZ from
03n-07n between 45w-54w. 

Gulf of Mexico...

Ridging continues to dominate the basin with a 1018 mb high 
pressure near 25n83w in the eastern Gulf. No significant 
convection is occurring over the Gulf at this time. However, there
is an approaching squall line stretching across most of Louisiana
and into East Texas pressing southward toward the NW Gulf. The
Yucatan trough is analyzed from 27n58w to 25n59w. Winds under the
ridging are light to moderate across the eastern half of the 
Gulf. Moderate to fresh east- southeasterly winds are across the 
western half of the Gulf.

A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce 
fresh to strong winds each night through Wednesday night as it 
moves west-northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, high pressure 
will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region 
during the next several days. 

Caribbean Sea...

Refer to the tropical waves section above for details on a 
tropical wave moving across the basin.

Very dry air is noted N of 11n and W of Haiti with a mid to upper
level trough in place across the region. Meanwhile, tropical
moisture continues to progress from northern South America to  
the eastern Caribbean under a mid to upper level ridge. Isolated 
showers are seen over the eastern Caribbean E of 75w with
thunderstorms seen from 23n-24n between 44w-45w.

Fresh to strong easterly winds are in the south-Central Basin
while also pulsing in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate
winds are seen in the eastern and northern basin.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the south-central 
Caribbean through Wednesday, increasing once again to near gale 
force Wednesday night through Friday night. Fresh to strong winds
are expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras tonight. 
Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trade winds are expected. 

Atlantic Ocean...

Refer to the tropical waves section above for details on the 
tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

A cold front enters the waters near 31n39w and stretches westward
to 30n44w. The boundary stalls from 30n44w to 30n48w and lifts 
north as a warm front from 30n48w to 31n50w. A pre-frontal trough 
is seen from 31n38w to 29n44w. Thunderstorms are seen along these 
boundaries from 29n-31n between 37w-44w. Isolated thunderstorms 
are also seen from 29n-30n between 68w-73w. Moderate southwesterly
winds are seen ahead of the boundaries. Another cold front west 
of the Cabo Verde islands enters the waters near 31n20w and 
stretches southwest to 27n26w, then stalls from 27n26w to 29n31w. 
No significant convection is associated with this boundary. A 1022
mb high pressure is near 29n40w and is ridging across the rest of
the domain. 

The weak frontal boundary will remain across the waters through 
Wednesday. Then, a through is forecast to drift westward toward 
Florida Thursday through Friday. A weak ridge will dominate the 
forecast area S of 27n. 

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