Tropical Weather Discussion

000 
axnt20 knhc 181806
twdat

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 PM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...Special features...

A cold front extends from N Florida near 29n81w to 29n88w. A 
stationary front continues from 28n88w to the NW Gulf of Mexico
near 27n96w to S Mexico near 18n94w. A gale is W of front and S 
of 21n. Seas are 08-14 ft. Expect the gale to continue until 
19/0000 UTC.

...Tropical waves...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 14n37w to 08n40w to
04n42w, moving W at 15 kt. The position is based on a recent ascat 
imagery that depicts the wave axis tilt. SSMI tpw imagery shows a
distinct maximum in moisture around the wave axis. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05n-11n between 
36w-48w.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70w from 05n-21n, moving 
west at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is associated with the wave, and
there is a local maximum in SSMI tpw. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 12n-15n between 68w-72w. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88w from 07n-21n, moving W
at 15 kt. SSMI tpw imagery shows a distinct maximum in moisture 
around the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 17n- 
21n between 81w-85w, and from 09n-15n between 82w-89w. 

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10n13w 
to 06n17w. The ITCZ extends from 06n17w to 06n29w to 08n39w. The 
ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 08n42w to 08n53w to the 
coast of South America near 09n61w. Scattered moderate convection
is along the coast of W Africa from 01n-08n between 10w-27w. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near Trinidad 
from 08n-13n between 56w-63w. 

Gulf of Mexico...

A front is over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico. A gale 
is in the cold sector S of 21w. See the special features section 
above. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Gulf from
24n-29n between 92w-97w. Isolated moderate convection is over the
SW Gulf from 18n-23n between 94w-98w. Scattered showers are over 
the se Gulf from 22n-25n between 87w-90w. The remainder of the 
Gulf has mainly 10-20 kt E surface winds, and fair weather. The 
front is expected to weaken Fri. A second cold front will enter 
the Gulf waters on Sat. This front will stall from central 
Florida to southern Texas on Sunday night, then will lift N 
through early next week. 

Caribbean Sea...

Two tropical waves are in the Caribbean Sea. See above.

An upper level low is centered S of Haiti near 18n74w producing  
scattered showers over E Cuba and Jamaica. 

Moderate to fresh trades will prevail the next several days, 
except locally strong breeze near the Gulf of Honduras, the 
approach to Windward Passage, and over the Mona Passage. 

Atlantic Ocean...

A cold front enters the W Atlantic near 31n65w and extends to N
Florida near 29n81w. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 30n49w
to 21n51w. The position is based on a recent ascat imagery that 
depicts the trough axis. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of
the trough axis. 

Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered N of
the Leeward Islands near 23n56w. Upper level diffluence is E of
the center. 

For additional information please visit
http://www.Hurricanes.Gov/marine

$$
Formosa


		
		

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