Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 281430
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/281430z-290600zjun2017//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection (invest 98w) has persisted near 4.4n 
139.3e, approximately 335 nm east-southeast of Palau. Animated 
enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts disorganized, flaring 
deep convection over the west quadrant of a broad low-level 
circulation center (LLCC). A 280922z AMSU 89ghz image shows 
fragmented banding wrapping into the broad LLCC. A recent partial 
ascat image indicates 10 to 15 knot winds over the eastern semi-
Circle. Upper-level conditions are favorable for development with 
good poleward outflow associated with a TUTT cell positioned to the 
north, near 14n 140e, and low vertical wind shear. Dynamic model 
guidance depicts a northwestward track with navgem indicating 
gradual development (gfs shows weak development). Maximum sustained 
surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea level 
pressure is estimated to be near 1008 mb. The potential for the 
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 
hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: added low area in paragraph 1.B.(1).//

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