Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 010000
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
South Pacific oceans reissued/010000z-010600zmay2017//
rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection (invest 99p) has persisted near 
11.8s 165.4e, approximately 785 nm west-northwest of nadi, Fiji. 
Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows an elongated 
circulation with flaring convection located over the disturbance. A 
302158z AMSU-b metop-b 89ghz microwave image shows fragmented 
convection associated with a very elongated low level circulation. 
The disturbance is located in a marginal environment due to moderate 
vertical wind shear (15-20 knots), but is offset by good upper level 
outflow and warm sea surface temperatures (28-29 celsius). Global 
models are in agreement that the disturbance will track to the east 
over the next few days, but become split as to the track and 
intensity in the later Taus. Maximum sustained surface winds are 
estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated 
to be near 1008 mb. The potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
3. Justification for reissue: added area in para 2.B.(1) as a low.//
Nnnn

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