Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 140600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
South Pacific oceans/140600z-150600zdec2017//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/140151zdec2017//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 140000z, tropical depression 32w (thirtytwo) was 
located near 11.2n 127.3e, approximately 421 nm east-southeast of 
Manila, Philippines, and had tracked west-northwestward at 03 knots 
over the past six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were 
estimated at 30 knots gusting to 40 knots. See ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 
140300) for further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection (invest 97w) has persisted near 2.0n 
153.5e, approximately 335 nm south-southeast of Chuuk. Animated 
multispectral satellite imagery and a 132337z AMSU-b 89ghz microwave 
image depict a broad low level circulation center with flaring, 
disorganized convection. A 132336z metop-b ascat pass shows a 
defined but elongated circulation with primarily 10 to 15 knot winds 
wrapping into the center and 15-20 knot winds located around the 
eastern and northern periphery. The disturbance is currently located 
in an area of good divergence aloft, low (10-15 knots) vertical wind 
shear, and very warm (30-31 celsius) sea surface temperatures. 
Global models are in good agreement that the disturbance will track 
to the west-northwest over the next several days with navgem 
intensifying the system over the next few days and the other models 
indicating weaker development. Maximum sustained surface winds are 
estimated at 12 to 18 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated 
to be near 1004 mb. The potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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