Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 110600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/110600z-120600zdec2018//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/110051zdec2018//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone formation alert//
rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 99c) previously located
near 4.0n 180.0e is now located near 5.0n 174.0e, approximately 443
nm east-southeast of kwajalein. Animated infrared satellite imagery
and a 110424z 89ghz mhs NOAA-19 microwave image depict broad
fragmented banding struggling to establish a LLCC. Upper level
analysis is favorable with low (5-15 knots) vws and poleward
diffluence. SSTs remain very favorable (30-32c) in the equatorial
Pacific. Global models generally agree on a northwest track with
possible rapid development past 48 hours. Maximum sustained surface
winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is
estimated to be near 1005 mb. The potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (rmnts 05p) previously located near
16.1s 144.0e is now located near 15.0s 139.3e, approximately 95 nm
north of Mornington Island, Australia. Animated infrared satellite
imagery, a 102350z 89ghz AMSU microwave image and recent radar
imagery depict an elongated but consolidating low level circulation
center with well-defined shallow rain bands. The upper level
environment is overall marginal, with moderate (20-25 knots)
vertical wind shear and weak upper level divergence. SSTs are
favorably warm (30-32c) in the Gulf of Carpentaria. Global models
are in good agreement that the system will continue on a westward
track with possible rapid development before turning back east as it
consolidates further over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level
pressure is estimated to be near 1000 mb. The potential for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours remains high. See ref a (wtps21 pgtw 110100) for further
details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//
Nnnn

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