Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abio10 pgtw 230000
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian Ocean
reissued/230000z-231800zjan2019//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/222221zjan2019//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cylone formation alert.//
Rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 93s) previously located 
near 18.6s 42.6e, is now located near 20.5s 40.5e, approximately 
11.7 nm east-southeast of Europa island. Animated enhanced infrared 
satellite imagery and a 221604z 91ghz ssmis microwave image show a 
consolidating low level circulation center partially covered by deep 
convection, with low level banding wrapping into the center. The 
system is currently located in an area of favorable poleward and 
equatorward outflow, low vertical wind shear (10-15 knots), and warm 
sea surface temperatures (26-28 celsius). Global models are in good 
agreement with the system tracking to the south and rounding the 
southern tip of Madagascar and intensifying before taking an 
eastward track. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 
to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 
mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical 
cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high. See ref a 
(wtxs21 pgtw 222230) for further details.
      (2) the area of convection (invest 94s) previously located 
near 11.1s 127.0e, is now located near 11.4s 126.6e, approximately 
470 nm north-northeast of Broome, Australia. Animated enhanced 
infrared satellite imagery and a 221327z mhs 89ghz microwave image 
show an elongated circulation with flaring convection located 
primarily to the west. A 221327z ascat partial pass shows a slightly 
elongated circulation with 10-25 knot winds. The disturbance is 
currently located in an area of good poleward upper level outflow, 
low vertical wind shear (5-15 knots), and warm sea surface 
temperatures (28-30 knots). Global models indicate a west or west-
southwest track over the next several days and show intensification 
to warning status. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 
15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 
1007 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical 
cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.
      (3) the area of convection (invest 90s) has persisted near 
11.5s 93.7e, approximately 200 nm west of Cocos Island. Animated 
enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a 221510z mhs 89ghz 
microwave image depict a slightly elongated low level circulation 
with persistent flaring convection located to the west and 
southwest. The disturbance is currently located in an area of good 
poleward and equatorward outflow, low vertical wind shear (5-15 
knots), and warm sea surface temperatures (28-30 knots). Models are 
indicating an initial westward track before some models show a 
quasistationary or slightly eastward track. Most global models 
currently show a trend towards intensification to warning criteria 
over the next few days. Maximum sustained surface winds are 
estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated 
to be near 1007 mb. The potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
      (4) no other suspect areas.
3. Justification for reissue: upgraded area in para 2.B.(1) to high 
and added area in para 2.B.(3) as low.//
Nnnn

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