Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 010300
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian Ocean
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/010151may2017//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone formation alert cancellation.//
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 98s) previously located 
near 10.8s 100.5e, is now located near 10.4s 98.1e, approximately 
125 nm northeast of Cocos Island. Animated multispectral satellite 
imagery shows a fully exposed low level circulation. A 302106z ssmis 
91ghz microwave image shows convection fully displaced to the east 
of an elongated low level circulation center with no convection 
wrapping into it. The disturbance is still located in an area of 
moderate divergence and warm sea surface temperatures (29-30 
celsius), however the upper-level jet is creating significant shear 
preventing the system from developing further. Global models show 
that the system will continue to track to the west over the next 1-2 
days and show the disturbance weakening during that time. Maximum 
sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea 
level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb. The potential for 
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 
hours is downgraded to low. See ref a (wtxs21 pgtw 010200) for 
further details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
3. Justification for reissue: cancelled tcfa and downgraded area in 
para 2.B.(1) to low.//

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