Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Weather Discussion
000abio10 pgtw 010300 msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi// subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian Ocean reissued/010300z-011800zmay2017// ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/010151may2017// ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone formation alert cancellation.// Rmks/ 1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa): a. Tropical cyclone summary: none. B. Tropical disturbance summary: none. 2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa): a. Tropical cyclone summary: none. B. Tropical disturbance summary: (1) the area of convection (invest 98s) previously located near 10.8s 100.5e, is now located near 10.4s 98.1e, approximately 125 nm northeast of Cocos Island. Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows a fully exposed low level circulation. A 302106z ssmis 91ghz microwave image shows convection fully displaced to the east of an elongated low level circulation center with no convection wrapping into it. The disturbance is still located in an area of moderate divergence and warm sea surface temperatures (29-30 celsius), however the upper-level jet is creating significant shear preventing the system from developing further. Global models show that the system will continue to track to the west over the next 1-2 days and show the disturbance weakening during that time. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low. See ref a (wtxs21 pgtw 010200) for further details. (2) no other suspect areas. 3. Justification for reissue: cancelled tcfa and downgraded area in para 2.B.(1) to low.// Nnnn
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