U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 131722 
Storm Prediction Center ac 131721 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1221 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019 

Valid 141200z - 151200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

a few thunderstorms are possible Monday morning across the eastern 
Carolinas. Other isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected 
Monday primarily from eastern Texas into a portion of the 
southeastern states. Isolated storms are possible over the middle 
Mississippi Valley late Monday night. No severe weather is expected. 


A northern-stream shortwave trough will move through the northern 
plains accompanied by a cold front, reaching the upper MS valley 
later Monday night. Positive-tilt southern-stream shortwave trough 
now off the California coast will move slowly through the southwestern 
states. Western extension of a quasi-stationary front expected to be 
situated from the Carolinas to along the Gulf Coast early Monday 
will advance inland as a warm front. 

A plume of moisture and weak impulses emanating from a tropical 
disturbance now over southern baja will spread east and interact 
with zone of weak isentropic ascent north of a warm front that will 
move inland along the Texas and la coasts. Deep, moist-adiabatic 
thermodynamic profiles will result in weak instability, but the 
environment will support numerous showers and widely-scattered to 
scattered thunderstorms mainly from East Texas into the lower MS valley 
region during the period. 

A corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will spread eastward 
within base of the northern-stream upper trough into the Central 
Plains and middle MS valley pre-frontal warm sector Monday night. 
Advection of modifying Continental-polar air beneath this 
elevated-mixed layer (eml) will contribute to 500-1000 j/kg MUCAPE. 
It appears much of this region will likely remain capped, but a few 
storms might develop later Monday night especially from MO into Illinois 
along eastern periphery of the eml and within an evolving warm 
advection regime. 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: <5% - none 
hail: <5% - none 

.Dial.. 10/13/2019