U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 200550 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1150 PM CST sun Nov 19 2017 


Valid 211200z - 221200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
a few thunderstorms are expected over a portion of the Florida 
Peninsula into south Georgia and possibly as well as the southeast 
Texas coast Tuesday, but no severe weather is anticipated. 


... 


Tuesday's synoptic pattern will remain dominated by a mean ridge 
over the western states with a downstream trough in the east. The 
southern-stream branch of the upper trough will amplify over the 
western Gulf in wake of a lead shortwave trough forecast to move 
through the Florida Peninsula during the day. Surface response will be 
reflected by evolving area of weak low pressure over the northeast 
Gulf that will redevelop over the Gulf Stream during the evening in 
association with the progression of the lead shortwave trough. A 
quasi-stationary front should persist across the central Florida 
Peninsula. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected, 
mainly over the northern half of Florida into southern Georgia within weak 
warm advection regime maximized in advance of the leading shortwave 
trough. 


..southeast Texas... 


Partially modified Gulf air with near 60 f dewpoints will advect 
through pre-frontal warm sector over the southeast Texas coastal area 
during the day contributing to marginal instability. Though most 
activity will probably remain offshore, a few showers and 
thunderstorms may over the southeast Texas coastal area within weak 
warm-advection regime and in association with deeper ascent 
accompanying a southeast-advancing shortwave trough. 


.Dial.. 11/20/2017 


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