U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Storm Prediction Center ac 170657 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1257 am CST Fri Jan 17 2020 


Valid 181200z - 191200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
thunderstorms will be possible from the Texas coastal plain and 
south Texas, east across the Gulf Coast states and southeast on 
Saturday. No severe threat is expected. 


... 
A positively tilted short-wave trough is progged to move rapidly 
across the Midwest through early portions of Saturday, but will 
quickly deamplify with time as it shifts into the northeast/New 
England. In the wake of this feature, the pattern will revert to a 
longer-wavelength and lower-amplitude western ridge/eastern trough 
configuration. 


At the surface, a deep low will move across the Great Lakes region, 
as a trailing cold front shifts out of Missouri/Arkansas/Texas and 
across that portion of the U.S. East of the Mississippi River. By 
the end of the period, the front should extend from southern New 
England and the mid Atlantic coastal vicinity, southwestward across 
the East Coast states and into the northeast and central Gulf of 
Mexico. 


Ahead of this front, showers and a few thunderstorms are expected, 
though very weak instability in the warm sector will preclude severe 
storm development. Elsewhere, cold/polar high pressure will prevail 
-- hindering prospects for deep moist convection over the remainder 
of the U.S. West of the eastern cold front. 


..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: <5% - none 
hail: <5% - none 


.Goss.. 01/17/2020 


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