- Day Three
acus02 kwns 131722
Storm Prediction Center ac 131721
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019
Valid 141200z - 151200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
a few thunderstorms are possible Monday morning across the eastern
Carolinas. Other isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
Monday primarily from eastern Texas into a portion of the
southeastern states. Isolated storms are possible over the middle
Mississippi Valley late Monday night. No severe weather is expected.
A northern-stream shortwave trough will move through the northern
plains accompanied by a cold front, reaching the upper MS valley
later Monday night. Positive-tilt southern-stream shortwave trough
now off the California coast will move slowly through the southwestern
states. Western extension of a quasi-stationary front expected to be
situated from the Carolinas to along the Gulf Coast early Monday
will advance inland as a warm front.
A plume of moisture and weak impulses emanating from a tropical
disturbance now over southern baja will spread east and interact
with zone of weak isentropic ascent north of a warm front that will
move inland along the Texas and la coasts. Deep, moist-adiabatic
thermodynamic profiles will result in weak instability, but the
environment will support numerous showers and widely-scattered to
scattered thunderstorms mainly from East Texas into the lower MS valley
region during the period.
A corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will spread eastward
within base of the northern-stream upper trough into the Central
Plains and middle MS valley pre-frontal warm sector Monday night.
Advection of modifying Continental-polar air beneath this
elevated-mixed layer (eml) will contribute to 500-1000 j/kg MUCAPE.
It appears much of this region will likely remain capped, but a few
storms might develop later Monday night especially from MO into Illinois
along eastern periphery of the eml and within an evolving warm
..maximum risk by hazard...
Tornado: <2% - none
wind: <5% - none
hail: <5% - none