U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Storm Prediction Center ac 220625 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1225 am CST Mon Jan 22 2018 


Valid 231200z - 241200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
thunderstorms are possible from portions of the mid-Atlantic into 
southern New England Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon and 
across the southern Florida Peninsula Tuesday afternoon. 


... 
Mature cyclone will eject northeastward through the northeast with 
accompanying strong flow aloft stretching from the southeast states 
into the Canadian Maritimes. At the surface, occluded low will drift 
northeastward across southern Ontario/Quebec ahead of the parent 
upper trough while another low develops over New England. Related 
cold front will sweep quickly eastward from its initial position 
along the Piedmont across the mid-Atlantic states. 


Across the central and western conus, a shortwave trough will 
progress from the northern/Central Plains into the mid MS valley 
while another shortwave trough approaches the Pacific northwest 
coast late in the period. 


... 
Airmass ahead of the approaching front will likely be characterized 
by temperatures in the upper 50s/low 60s, dewpoints in the upper 
50s, and southerly/southwesterly winds. Given that the better lift 
and cooler mid-level temperatures will be displaced north of the 
region, instability will be tempered by the generally moist profiles 
and relatively warm mid-level temperatures. Best overlap of lift and 
low-level moisture will likely exist across northern portions of the 
mid-Atlantic region. In this area, a narrow line of convection is 
anticipated along the front. Some elevated warm-air advection 
showers and thunderstorms are possible as well. 


Strong wind fields will support fast storm motion and the strongly 
sheared environment may result in a few more organized updrafts. As 
a result, the potential for a few damaging wind gusts exists. 
However, limited instability will temper updraft strength and 
persistence, resulting in low severe storm coverage, precluding the 
need to delineate any threat areas. 


.Mosier.. 01/22/2018 


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