U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 220727 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0227 am CDT sun Apr 22 2018 


Valid 241200z - 251200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southern Plains as 
well as the mid-Atlantic states and Florida Peninsula. 


... 
A shortwave trough is expected to progress southeastward from the 
Central High plains into the central/Southern Plains. The movement 
of this shortwave will encourage a southward surge of a cold 
Continental airmass into the Southern Plains. Airmass ahead of the 
front isn't expected to be particularly moist but enough instability 
will likely exist to support thunderstorms. The stronger flow aloft 
will lag behind the front and the current prospects for severe 
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening are low. Elevated 
thunderstorms may develop overnight in response to an strengthening 
low-level jet with the increased mid-level flow contributing to some 
severe potential. However, current guidance is inconsistent on the 
development of these storms and, even if they do develop, 
instability will likely be quite limited. 


Farther east, a mature cyclone is expected to move from central 
Kentucky/middle Tennessee northeastward through the central Appalachians. At the 
sane time, an attendant surface low will track northeastward through 
the mid-Atlantic states. Warm sector associated with this low will 
be confined to the coastal areas of the Carolinas. A strong storm or 
two is possible in this area as well as along and just north of the 
warm front. However, anticipated low coverage and numerous 
uncertainties inherent to forecasts at this range preclude 
introducing any severe probabilities with this outlook. 


Lastly, thunderstorms are anticipated across the central and 
southern Florida Peninsula as modest ascent, provided by both the 
eastward progression of the cyclone mentioned above and a surface 
trough traversing the region, interacts with the unstable airmass 
over the area. A strong storm or two is possible during the 
afternoon and severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent 
outlooks if confidence in sufficient severe coverage increases. 


.Mosier.. 04/22/2018 


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