U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus03 kwns 220720 
Storm Prediction Center ac 220719 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0119 am CST Mon Jan 22 2018 

Valid 241200z - 251200z 

..no thunderstorm areas forecast... 

thunderstorms are not expected across the lower 48 on Wednesday. 

Low-amplitude shortwave trough will move quickly through the mid MS 
and Tennessee valleys during the day before moving off the mid-Atlantic 
coast overnight. In its wake, upper ridging will translate eastward 
from the intermountain west into the plains while a southern-stream 
shortwave trough moves slowly across northern Mexico. Farther west, 
a series of shortwave troughs will contribute to eastward 
progression and modest amplification of troughing over the western 
Continental U.S.. 

Sensible weather across the Southern Plains and southeast will be 
dominated by surface high pressure while modest Lee troughing 
develops over the High Plains. A cold front will push through the 
Pacific northwest and adjacent northern California early in the period, 
continuing eastward into the northern rockies/Great Basin. Shallow 
convection is possible along the front but warm temperatures aloft 
will likely prevent updrafts from becoming deep enough to produce 
lightning. Shallow convection is also possible within the 
Post-frontal environment but cool surface temperatures and modest 
moisture will temper instability and preclude lightning production. 

.Mosier.. 01/22/2018