U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus03 kwns 220713 
Storm Prediction Center ac 220712 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0212 am CDT Mon Apr 22 2019 

Valid 241200z - 251200z 

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
south-central and southeast Texas... 

Thunderstorms associated with a wind damage and large hail threat 
are expected to develop across parts of south-central and southeast 
Texas on Wednesday. 

..Southern Plains... 
An upper-level low is forecast to move from northern Mexico into 
West Texas on Wednesday. West-southwesterly mid-level flow will 
remain across much of the eastern half of Texas. At the surface, a 
cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across central and 
southwest Texas. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass should be in 
place with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s f. In response, 
moderate instability appears likely to develop by Wednesday 
afternoon from the lower Rio Grande River east-northeastward across 
south-central Texas. The NAM and European model (ecmwf) are somewhat in agreement, 
showing convective potential along this corridor along and just 
ahead of the front. In addition to moderate instability, NAM 
forecast soundings at 21z Wednesday for San Antonio show 0-6 km 
shear in the 50-60 kt range. This combined with steep low to 
mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for large hail and isolated 
damaging wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to develop in the 
early afternoon and persist into early evening. 

.Broyles.. 04/22/2019