U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus03 kwns 230713 
swody3 
Storm Prediction Center ac 230712 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0212 am CDT sun Apr 23 2017 


Valid 251200z - 261200z 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms outside of the 
slight risk area across parts of northeast Oklahoma...southeast 
Kansas and southwest Missouri... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
eastern North Carolina... 


... 
Thunderstorms associated with large hail and isolated wind damage 
are expected to develop across parts of northeast Oklahoma, 
southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri late Tuesday afternoon into 
the evening. Other marginally severe storms with strong wind gusts 
may occur across eastern North Carolina. 


..Oklahoma/southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri... 
An upper-level trough is forecast to move east-southeastward across 
the southern and central rockies into the High Plains on Tuesday. At 
the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward 
across the Central Plains during the day reaching northern Oklahoma 
and western Missouri by early evening. A capping inversion should 
prevent convective initiation along the front during the afternoon. 
The cap should weaken by early evening allowing for thunderstorm 
development to take place in southwest Missouri and southeast 
Kansas. This convection is expected to develop southwestward into 
northeastern Oklahoma during by mid evening. 


GFS forecast soundings along this corridor at 03z/Wednesday from 
Springfield to Tulsa show moderate instability (mlcape near 2000 
j/kg), 0-6 km shear around 50 kt and steep lapse rates from 700 to 
500 mb. This should support supercell development with large hail. 
An isolated wind-damage threat should also accompany supercells and 
with the stronger multicell line-segments that organize along the 
front. 


..eastern North Carolina... 
An upper-level low is forecast to move northeastward, offshore but 
parallel to the North Carolina coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a 
corridor of low-level moisture is forecast in eastern North Carolina 
where convection may develop during the morning into early 
afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, moderate 
deep-layer shear and the moist boundary layer could be enough for 
marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells. 


.Broyles.. 04/23/2017 


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