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acus01 kwns 240114
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 240113
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019
Valid 240100z - 241200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
Alabama...
...
Risk for locally damaging winds and a tornado persists across the
Tennessee Valley vicinity.
..Tennessee Valley vicinity into the central Gulf Coast region...
Convective intensity continues to gradually wane across the risk
area, as diurnal cooling continues to yield a slow decrease in cape
across the region. With favorable shear still in place across the
warm sector, some risk for a few severe storms will linger.
However, with a pronounced wedge front as far west as middle
Tennessee/northwest Alabama and the northern 2/3 of Georgia, the
zone where surface-based severe risk persists continues to shrink,
as the cold front advances.
Greatest risk for a tornado or two appears to linger over
north-central Alabama, with lesser risk south/southwest across a
larger portion of Mississippi and Alabama -- over the next couple of
hours.
.Goss.. 02/24/2019
$$
Mesoscale Discussion
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acus11 kwns 240151
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 240151
alz000-tnz000-msz000-240345-
Mesoscale discussion 0130
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019
Areas affected...southeast MS into northern Alabama and south-central Tennessee
Concerning...Tornado Watch 5...6...
Valid 240151z - 240345z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5, 6 continues.
Summary...an isolated severe threat will continue from central MS
into central/northern Alabama and far south-central Tennessee the next few
hours.
Discussion...the severe threat has largely diminished across the
region given cooling boundary layer temperatures and working over of
the airmass by widespread precipitation associated with weakening
line/storm clusters. Occasional moderate rotation has been noted,
most recently in a cell in Walker County Alabama over the last 30 minutes
or so. Deep layer shear remains favorable for rotating updrafts, but
any organized, intense cell will likely be short-lived as forcing
for ascent continues to weaken with eastward extent. In the short
term, a low-end severe/tornado threat will continue for another
couple of hours across Tornado Watch 6.
Further west, storms have intensified ahead of the approaching cold
front across central MS. These storms could pose a damaging wind
threat given some weak surface based instability and fast storm
motion. This threat should remain limited in time and space however
as line of storms tracks across an increasingly stabilizing boundary
layer through the evening. As such, a new watch is not expected
across this area and the remainder of Tornado Watch 5 will be
allowed to expire as scheduled at 02z.
.Leitman.. 02/24/2019
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...ohx...bmx...hun...mob...Meg...Jan...
Latitude...Lon 31579036 31899042 32429011 33508928 34108868 35348739
35508705 35538670 35458637 35168613 34668613 33628630
33168652 32788684 32138766 31938800 31528891 31408967
31408994 31459021 31579036
