U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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acus01 kwns 131934 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 131933 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0233 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019 


Valid 132000z - 141200z 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from central 
South Carolina through eastern North Carolina... 


... 
Thunderstorms might produce strong to marginally severe gusts over 
parts of the Carolinas later this afternoon into this evening. 


... 


No significant changes have been made to previous forecast. Weak 
destabilization of the boundary layer continues this afternoon with 
temperatures rising to the low 80s f supporting up to 500 j/kg 
MLCAPE in warm sector over the central and eastern Carolinas. Rap 
analysis and satellite imagery indicate a mid-level jet streak 
spreading through the Gulf coastal states. This feature should 
contribute to an increase in thunderstorm development along and 
just ahead of the stationary front across the Carolinas this 
afternoon, coincident with peak destabilization. While vertical wind 
profiles accompanying the upper jet with 40-45 kt effective bulk 
shear support the potential for a few organized storms, the very 
weak thermodynamic environment will continue to be a limiting factor 
for a more robust severe threat. Nevertheless, a few of the storms 
might produce locally strong wind gusts through early evening. 


.Dial.. 10/13/2019 


Previous discussion... /issued 1118 am CDT sun Oct 13 2019/ 


... 
A large upper low is present today over the Great Lakes region, with 
fast southwesterly flow aloft extending from the lower MS valley 
into the mid Atlantic region. The primary surface baroclinic zone 
lies from central Georgia into parts of SC/NC. Widespread clouds and 
pockets of rain in vicinity of the boundary are limiting daytime 
heating and destabilization, and should preclude a more organized 
severe thunderstorm risk today. Nevertheless, forecast soundings 
along the southern fringe of the cloud cover show sufficient 
steering flow and cape for a few strong storms capable of gusty 
winds. The period with the greatest threat for localized 
gusty/damaging winds will be from 22-03z. 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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acus11 kwns 110222 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 110221 
txz000-okz000-110415- 


Mesoscale discussion 2067 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0921 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 


Areas affected...parts of North Texas 


Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674... 


Valid 110221z - 110415z 


The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674 
continues. 


Summary...the threat of large hail and localized wind damage 
continues over the watch area. 


Discussion...storms have increased in coverage this evening, now 
lining up along and just behind the cold front. Several storms are 
producing large hail, with a few cores long-lived. With time, storms 
may merge into more of a linear structure with a threat of localized 
wind damage. The 00z forward sounding shows ample instability with a 
favorable hodograph to sustained severe storms. The only mitigating 
factor to a more substantial supercell threat will continue to be 
the cold front undercutting the storms. Relatively stable air 
remains over far eastern Texas which may affect/weaken northeastern 
parts of the line first. 


.Jewell.. 10/11/2019 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...shv...tsa...fwd...oun...sjt... 


Latitude...Lon 31879906 32629787 33489658 33879596 33889529 33419509 
32549551 31939606 31659700 31509773 31529834 31879906