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acus01 kwns 131934
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 131933
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019
Valid 132000z - 141200z
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from central
South Carolina through eastern North Carolina...
...
Thunderstorms might produce strong to marginally severe gusts over
parts of the Carolinas later this afternoon into this evening.
...
No significant changes have been made to previous forecast. Weak
destabilization of the boundary layer continues this afternoon with
temperatures rising to the low 80s f supporting up to 500 j/kg
MLCAPE in warm sector over the central and eastern Carolinas. Rap
analysis and satellite imagery indicate a mid-level jet streak
spreading through the Gulf coastal states. This feature should
contribute to an increase in thunderstorm development along and
just ahead of the stationary front across the Carolinas this
afternoon, coincident with peak destabilization. While vertical wind
profiles accompanying the upper jet with 40-45 kt effective bulk
shear support the potential for a few organized storms, the very
weak thermodynamic environment will continue to be a limiting factor
for a more robust severe threat. Nevertheless, a few of the storms
might produce locally strong wind gusts through early evening.
.Dial.. 10/13/2019
Previous discussion... /issued 1118 am CDT sun Oct 13 2019/
...
A large upper low is present today over the Great Lakes region, with
fast southwesterly flow aloft extending from the lower MS valley
into the mid Atlantic region. The primary surface baroclinic zone
lies from central Georgia into parts of SC/NC. Widespread clouds and
pockets of rain in vicinity of the boundary are limiting daytime
heating and destabilization, and should preclude a more organized
severe thunderstorm risk today. Nevertheless, forecast soundings
along the southern fringe of the cloud cover show sufficient
steering flow and cape for a few strong storms capable of gusty
winds. The period with the greatest threat for localized
gusty/damaging winds will be from 22-03z.
$$
Mesoscale Discussion
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acus11 kwns 110222
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 110221
txz000-okz000-110415-
Mesoscale discussion 2067
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0921 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019
Areas affected...parts of North Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674...
Valid 110221z - 110415z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674
continues.
Summary...the threat of large hail and localized wind damage
continues over the watch area.
Discussion...storms have increased in coverage this evening, now
lining up along and just behind the cold front. Several storms are
producing large hail, with a few cores long-lived. With time, storms
may merge into more of a linear structure with a threat of localized
wind damage. The 00z forward sounding shows ample instability with a
favorable hodograph to sustained severe storms. The only mitigating
factor to a more substantial supercell threat will continue to be
the cold front undercutting the storms. Relatively stable air
remains over far eastern Texas which may affect/weaken northeastern
parts of the line first.
.Jewell.. 10/11/2019
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...shv...tsa...fwd...oun...sjt...
Latitude...Lon 31879906 32629787 33489658 33879596 33889529 33419509
32549551 31939606 31659700 31509773 31529834 31879906
