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acus01 kwns 080526
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 080525
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2019
Valid 081200z - 091200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...
scattered thunderstorms are expected on Sunday over parts of the
southwestern states and isolated storms are possible late near the
Carolina coast.
..southwestern US...
Strong upper trough, currently located along the Pacific coast, will
dig southeast to a position from central Colorado - Southern California by 09/12z.
As this occurs, strong 500mb jet will sag southeast and vertical
profiles will cool substantially north of the jet. Latest model
guidance allows a corridor of weak instability to develop as lapse
rates steepen, especially during the day when some boundary-layer
heating is expected. Forecast soundings suggest the
strongest/deepest convection will attain heights necessary for
lightning, and for these reasons will maintain at least 10% thunder
probabilities across much of the southwestern US.
...
Weak short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the eastern Gulf
states late in the period to near the NC coast by 09/12z. This
feature should induce a surface trough off the Atlantic coast which
may be drawn inland across eastern NC during the overnight hours.
Weak warm advection and moistening profiles suggest some threat for
lighting with the strongest convection, primarily after 06z.
.Darrow/squitieri.. 12/08/2019
$$
Mesoscale Discussion
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acus11 kwns 072054
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 072054
caz000-072330-
Mesoscale discussion 2189
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2019
Areas affected...northern California
Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely
Valid 072054z - 072330z
Probability of watch issuance...5 percent
Summary...isolated strong storms remain possible this afternoon.
Discussion...surface analysis shows temperatures into the 60s f over
the valley, with gusty south winds aiding warm air advection
northward toward the midlevel temperature gradient (from Chico north
per objective analysis). Batches of precipitation exist in these
areas, which is minimizing destabilization. Shear remains strong
with 150-200 m2/s2 effective srh currently, and 200-250 m2/s2 0-1 km
srh.
With time, winds just off the surface will veer, reducing low-level
srh, but enhancing upslope east of the valley. Continued cooling
aloft along with the diurnal cycle suggest a few strong storms may
yet develop. If a substantial enough updraft can survive in the
shear (most likely where convergence is maximized), an isolated
supercell is possible, with perhaps a brief/weak tornado. Otherwise,
small hail may occur.
.Jewell/Hart.. 12/07/2019
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...sto...eka...
Latitude...Lon 39012180 39032236 39292269 39702285 40072291 40342299
40672293 40982282 41152245 41162198 40892162 40442127
39812091 39342089 39122134 39012180
