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Storm Prediction Center ac 130048
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CST Mon Nov 12 2018
Valid 130100z - 131200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
far eastern North Carolina...
...
A few severe storms remain possible tonight through early Tuesday
morning over the coastal Carolinas.
..01z update...
..Gulf Coast...
severe threat continues to diminish across southern Alabama/Georgia and the
Florida Panhandle as the composite outflow/cold front progresses eastward
into the somewhat more stable air mass downstream. 00z tlh sounding
shows a lack of surface-based instability, providing further
evidence for a continued downward trend in the severe weather
threat. The sounding does show some elevated instability, supporting
a continued potential for thunderstorms. More information about this
region can be found in mesoscale discussion 1640.
..eastern Carolinas...
Overall forecast outlined in previous outlooks remains valid for
this region. Surface cyclogenesis is still expected later tonight
with the warm-air advection ahead of it contributing to low-level
moisture advection and the development of surface-based instability
within the warm sector. Inland penetration of the warm sector will
be limited but surface-based thunderstorms appear likely across the
coastal portions of the eastern Carolinas. Large, looping low-level
hodographs suggest the potential for a few rotating storms, with a
resultant threat for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two.
.Mosier.. 11/13/2018
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Mesoscale Discussion
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Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 130026
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Mesoscale discussion 1640
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CST Mon Nov 12 2018
Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle...far southeastern
Alabama...and southwestern Georgia
Concerning...Tornado Watch 427...
Valid 130026z - 130100z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 427 continues.
Summary...severe threat should continue to diminish this evening.
Additional downstream watch issuance is not expected.
Discussion...a broken line of thunderstorms will continue eastward
across southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle this evening. 00z
sounding from Tallahassee, Florida shows a sharp inversion around 900 mb
with only weak (less than 500 j/kg) MLCAPE. As the low-level flow
across this region weakens and veers, convergence along/ahead of a
surface front should likewise diminish. With the loss of daytime
heating and the ongoing line of storms becoming increasingly
oriented parallel to southwesterly mid-level flow, the overall
severe threat will likely continue to diminish this evening.
Therefore, downstream watch issuance is not expected, and ww 427
will be allowed to expire as scheduled at 01z.
.Gleason.. 11/13/2018
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...ffc...tae...
Latitude...Lon 30218579 31908441 31858399 29988421 29608485 29548514
29748542 29928548 30048565 30218579
