U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 240113 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0713 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019 


Valid 240100z - 241200z 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of 
Alabama... 


... 
Risk for locally damaging winds and a tornado persists across the 
Tennessee Valley vicinity. 


..Tennessee Valley vicinity into the central Gulf Coast region... 
Convective intensity continues to gradually wane across the risk 
area, as diurnal cooling continues to yield a slow decrease in cape 
across the region. With favorable shear still in place across the 
warm sector, some risk for a few severe storms will linger. 
However, with a pronounced wedge front as far west as middle 
Tennessee/northwest Alabama and the northern 2/3 of Georgia, the 
zone where surface-based severe risk persists continues to shrink, 
as the cold front advances. 


Greatest risk for a tornado or two appears to linger over 
north-central Alabama, with lesser risk south/southwest across a 
larger portion of Mississippi and Alabama -- over the next couple of 
hours. 


.Goss.. 02/24/2019 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 240151 
alz000-tnz000-msz000-240345- 


Mesoscale discussion 0130 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0751 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019 


Areas affected...southeast MS into northern Alabama and south-central Tennessee 


Concerning...Tornado Watch 5...6... 


Valid 240151z - 240345z 


The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5, 6 continues. 


Summary...an isolated severe threat will continue from central MS 
into central/northern Alabama and far south-central Tennessee the next few 
hours. 


Discussion...the severe threat has largely diminished across the 
region given cooling boundary layer temperatures and working over of 
the airmass by widespread precipitation associated with weakening 
line/storm clusters. Occasional moderate rotation has been noted, 
most recently in a cell in Walker County Alabama over the last 30 minutes 
or so. Deep layer shear remains favorable for rotating updrafts, but 
any organized, intense cell will likely be short-lived as forcing 
for ascent continues to weaken with eastward extent. In the short 
term, a low-end severe/tornado threat will continue for another 
couple of hours across Tornado Watch 6. 


Further west, storms have intensified ahead of the approaching cold 
front across central MS. These storms could pose a damaging wind 
threat given some weak surface based instability and fast storm 
motion. This threat should remain limited in time and space however 
as line of storms tracks across an increasingly stabilizing boundary 
layer through the evening. As such, a new watch is not expected 
across this area and the remainder of Tornado Watch 5 will be 
allowed to expire as scheduled at 02z. 


.Leitman.. 02/24/2019 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...ohx...bmx...hun...mob...Meg...Jan... 


Latitude...Lon 31579036 31899042 32429011 33508928 34108868 35348739 
35508705 35538670 35458637 35168613 34668613 33628630 
33168652 32788684 32138766 31938800 31528891 31408967 
31408994 31459021 31579036