New Orleans Weather Blog

IS 94L A BIG THREAT?

By: SevereHurricane, 5:47 PM GMT on July 27, 2009

Current Activity


Courtesy of The National Hurricane Center.
____________________________________________________________

My Tropical Activity Analysis:


94L

94l is looking healthier this morning with a semi-concentrated area of convection with evidence of some Upper Level Outflow occurring on the western side of the system and if this organization trend continues 94L could become the 6th Tropical Depression of the 2009 hurricane Season sometime tonight or tomorrow morning and eventually become Erika. Looking at High-Resolution Visible satellite imagery the center of 94L is located near 11.5N 47.5W and is moving to the West-Northwest at around 15mph. This motion should continue for the next 48-72 Hours and 94L could have an impact on the Northern Leeward Islands in a few days as a Tropical Storm, however, I am leaning towards 94L passing just north of the Islands in a similar fashion to the 00Z ECMWF and UKMET. Beyond that is rather problematic and there are 2 scenario's that could occur. If 94L maintains its motion or speed up and becomes strong quick as some of the models are indicating the trough over the Central Atlantic would likely pick it up and bring it out to sea passing to the North-East of the Leeward Islands with an eventual impact on Bermuda not out of the question OR if 94 slows down and stays somewhat weaker until it passes close to the northern Leeward Islands there is risk that the trough could miss the Cyclone and ride under the ridge and move to the west towards the southern Bahamas. Beyond that, well, we will cross that bridge when we get there.

Thanks for reading and have a wonderful day,

SevereHurricane
____________________________________________________________
My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast:

10-12 Named Storms
3-5 Hurricanes
2-3 Major Hurricanes

"It only take's one..."

*This forecast is subject to change.
____________________________________________________________
So Far This Year:
Named Storms:4
Hurricanes:1
Major Hurricanes:1
____________________________________________________________
2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Names:
Ana-
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

____________________________________________________________
National Hurricane Center Daily Product's

NHC Tropical Weather Outlook---------------> HERE

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion--------------->HERE


___________________________________________________________
Atlantic Basin Hurricane Maps/Data:

















MORE SATELLITE IMAGES
____________________________________________________________
Numerical and Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models

Numerical Models
GFS MODEL
NAM MODEL
GEFS MODEL
WW3 MODEL
NGM MODEL


Tropical Models

GFDL MODEL
HWRF MODEL

____________________________________________________________
Web Cam/Current Condition's


____________________________________________________________



Thank You For Reading My Blog Please Comment!!!

NE GALE, TWO NEW AOI'S

By: SevereHurricane, 12:20 PM GMT on July 24, 2009

Current Activity


Courtesy of The National Hurricane Center.
____________________________________________________________

My Tropical Activity Analysis:

Ex-98L
Ex-98L sure proved to be a rainmaker dropping a swath of 2-4 inches of rain just west of Boston,MA. The result is that a large area of New England is under a flood advisory. Ex-98L also caused a decent Gale in the waters off shore of New England with gust's over 40 Knot's at times and seas were reported as high as 8 feet high. Condition's should slowly begin to improve by tomorrow as The Extra-Tropical Low that was 98L pulls away from New England.


Bahamas Surface Trough

A Surface Trough off the South East Coastline extending from 27N -77W to 32N -71W is producing scattered shower's and thunderstorm's. This surface trough need's to be watched for slow development because climatology show's past development in this area and condition's may become slightly more favorable in a few days.

East Atlantic Wave
A nice Tropical Wave came off the African Coast yesterday is passing the Cape Verde Islands this morning is moving west at 15-20MPH. This wave is carrying a large area of moisture and is producing a little convection on the southern end of the axis. This wave also need's to be watched for slow development in a couple of days once it is father west.

This wrap's up my Tropical Update for Today.

Thanks for reading and have a wonderful day,

SevereHurricane

*PS... Today is my 15th Birthday. :D
____________________________________________________________
My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast:

10-12 Named Storms
3-5 Hurricanes
2-3 Major Hurricanes

"It only take's one..."

*This forecast is subject to change.
____________________________________________________________
So Far This Year:
Named Storms:0
Hurricanes:0
Major Hurricanes:0
____________________________________________________________
2009 Names and What Happened:
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

____________________________________________________________
National Hurricane Center Daily Product's

NHC Tropical Weather Outlook---------------> HERE

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion--------------->HERE


___________________________________________________________
Atlantic Basin Hurricane Maps/Data:

















MORE SATELLITE IMAGES
____________________________________________________________
Numerical and Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models

Numerical Models
GFS MODEL
NAM MODEL
GEFS MODEL
WW3 MODEL
NGM MODEL


Tropical Models

GFDL MODEL
HWRF MODEL

____________________________________________________________
Web Cam/Current Condition's


____________________________________________________________



Thank You For Reading My Blog Please Comment!!!

Gale in New England, 2 new AOI's

By: SevereHurricane, 12:19 PM GMT on July 24, 2009

Current Activity


Courtesy of The National Hurricane Center.
____________________________________________________________

My Tropical Activity Analysis:

Ex-98L
The Extra-Tropical Low that was 98L sure proved to be a rainmaker dropping a swath of 2-4 inches of rain just west of Boston,MA. The result is that a large area of New England is under a flood advisory. Ex-98L also caused a decent Gale in the waters off shore of New England with gust's over 40 Knot's at times and seas were reported as high as 8 feet high. Condition's should slowly begin to improve by tomorrow as The Extra-Tropical Low that was 98L pulls away from New England.

Bahamas Surface Trough

A Surface Trough off the South East Coastline extending from 27N -77W to 32N -71W is producing scattered shower's and thunderstorm's. This surface trough need's to be watched for slow development because climatology show's past development in this area and condition's may become slightly more favorable in a few days.

East Atlantic Wave
A nice Tropical Wave came off the African Coast yesterday is passing the Cape Verde Islands this morning is moving west at 15-20MPH. This wave is carrying a large area of moisture and is producing a little convection on the southern end of the axis. This wave also need's to be watched for slow development in a couple of days once it is father west.

This wrap's up my Tropical Update for Today.

Thanks for reading and have a wonderful day,

SevereHurricane

*PS... Today is my 15th Birthday. :D
____________________________________________________________
My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast:

10-12 Named Storms
3-5 Hurricanes
2-3 Major Hurricanes

"It only take's one..."

*This forecast is subject to change.
____________________________________________________________
So Far This Year:
Named Storms:0
Hurricanes:0
Major Hurricanes:0
____________________________________________________________
2009 Names and What Happened:
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

____________________________________________________________
National Hurricane Center Daily Product's

NHC Tropical Weather Outlook---------------> HERE

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion--------------->HERE


___________________________________________________________
Atlantic Basin Hurricane Maps/Data:

















MORE SATELLITE IMAGES
____________________________________________________________
Numerical and Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models

Numerical Models
GFS MODEL
NAM MODEL
GEFS MODEL
WW3 MODEL
NGM MODEL


Tropical Models

GFDL MODEL
HWRF MODEL


____________________________________________________________



Thank You For Reading My Blog Please Comment!!!


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

New Orleans Weather Blog

About SevereHurricane

Dylan's the name and I am from New Orleans.I'm 15 Year's old and have a passion in Meteorology. I will try to update my blog daily.

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