New Orleans Weather Blog

93l Prediction

By: SevereHurricane, 1:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2008

As we all know 93l is a threat to the Northeast USA. It is having a rough go right now with 10-15 knot wind sheer and Land interaction. However when this disturbance gets north of the Islands it will encounter less sheer, warm waters and room to grow. 93l will have time to organize with the time-frame of a 2-3 day period. Looking at The latest satellite images 93l is trying to get better organized with better rotation and a more compact cloud structure when the NHC decides to upgrade it its should become Tropical Storm Kyle. I expect if 93l becomes Kyle it will grow larger because of the coriolis effect. Kyle however should not be at its peak intensity at lanfall because it will encounter higher sheer and waters in the Mid 70's instead of the warm 80 degrees it needs. Im not throwing out the possibility that kyle could make the Transition to Extra-Tropical Before Possibly Reaching the Northeast Coast.If I were in the Northeast I would prepare 50-65mph winds with higher gusts. If Kyle becomes into existance which seems likley.



Figure 1. (93l on AVN Satellite).



Figure 2. (Tropical Forecast Model Plots Supporting My Prediction).



Figure 3. (GFDL Model Forecast showing a Large Tropical Storm Kyle with winds around 65mph over Long Island)


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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About SevereHurricane

Dylan's the name and I am from New Orleans.I'm 15 Year's old and have a passion in Meteorology. I will try to update my blog daily.

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