Nell, Dudley and Snidely: Uncertainty

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 7:07 AM GMT on February 17, 2015

Nell, Dudley and Snidely: Uncertainty

In last week’s article I wrote:

Probability and likelihood are notoriously difficult ways to communicate in quiet consultation, and even more difficult in newspapers, on the radio, television and online. Probability and risk are just made for conflicting headlines. The conclusions are, therefore, by definition, uncertain, and uncertainty can always fuel both sides of a rhetorical or a political argument.

I got a very nice comment from Scott Sabol of WJW FOX 8 about the “uphill battle attempting to communicate uncertainty both in day-to-day weather forecasts and the describing of the components of extreme weather events/climate change influence without alienating the audience.” I have seen several blogs since the blizzard forecasts of January 23 – 26 that focus on the need to better quantify and describe the uncertainty associated with winter storms. Uncertainty is subject of this article.

Here’s a still growing record of the Northeast blizzard news cycle on my Tumblr site. This record includes some of the blogs referenced in the previous paragraph that discuss the need for better communication of uncertainty.

In the fall of 2014, I taught a small course on uncertainty, and specifically, on placing uncertainty of climate change in context with other sources of uncertainty in applying climate knowledge to planning and policy. My starting point in many uncertainty discussions is from the uncertainty fallacy; namely, that the quantification and reduction of uncertainty is the primary barrier that hinders the use of scientific knowledge in decision making. During the 1990s, many proposals and measurement missions were sold on the promise of “reducing uncertainty.” If you consider all of the complex processes that make up the climate system and their simplified representation in models, then casual statements that uncertainty will be reduced by any one investigation are not likely to hold up. Uncertainty might be better understood and be better described, but reduction is unlikely. Further, reduction does not assure better usability of knowledge, and in most cases it is not required.

One of my favorite classroom experiences is when the business students in class describe to the scientists and engineers that they are always making decisions in the face of great uncertainty. They want to know how climate uncertainty stacks up against other sources of uncertainty. They also what evidence that changes in the uncertainty descriptions will be incremental; that is, for example, from one assessment to the next, the description is largely the same.

If you listen to the NPR series on Risk and Reason, you will get a feeling of the difficulty of communicating uncertainty and the difficulty that people have in using information about uncertainty. In that series, there are those who advocate never using numbers describing uncertainty in policy contexts, and then there are those thinking of clever and effective ways to communicate numbers to individuals making important decisions. One take away is that how people use information about uncertainty is highly personal. There are often strong elements of fear and want.

Also, in many cases people have an agenda of how they want to use uncertainty – to make something happen or to keep something from happening ( a Rood blog, an ancient Rood blog, and yet another Rood blog, enough).

The quest for uncertainty quantification and highly quantified descriptions of uncertainty to assist in decision making is a mistake often made by scientists. In the cohort of clients I work with, the vast majority is simply not prepared to work with highly quantitative descriptions of uncertainty. Even more to the point, when climate uncertainty is placed into context with other sources of uncertainty, the quantification is overkill. There are studies that suggest, for instance Tang and Dessai (2012), that highly quantified descriptions of uncertainty can, on average, reduce the usability of climate information.

All of these factors together lead to at least one robust conclusion, there is no way to communicate uncertainty in a usable way to everyone. Therefore, you need have several strategies for communicating uncertainty, and you need to frame those strategies for different audiences. In the work that I have done with experts in public health, there is always the discussion about how to communicate a risk, for example, heat waves to the public. There is also the discussion of how to communicate information to first responders and to emergency health providers so that they will be on the lookout for heat-related afflictions. I am not aware that there is any discussion to communicate to anyone the numbers from epidemiological statisticians that one type of heat index has some fractional advantage in predicting heat-related afflictions.

An important point is the need to make a special effort to communicate to those who are trained professionals and have a framework in which to interpret and use uncertainty information. In the case of a weather emergency, one imagines that large cities might have such professionals. One of the most interesting responses that I saw in the Northeast blizzard news cycle was one where funding for experts, interpreters, in providing guidance on the use of forecasts had been eliminated. I don’t know the complete knowledge chain from weather forecast to shutting down a city, but this type of expertise is critical at some place in that knowledge chain.

My whole raison d’être these days is training interpreters on how to use climate knowledge in problem solving. Many of the same principles apply in how to use weather forecasts and how to use science-based knowledge in general. The Northeast blizzard news cycle has been and continues to be a real-world example for both climate and weather. The continued snow storms in Boston, for example, are a wonderful example of relentless patterns of weather that demonstrate that weather is not “random.” However, the biggest lessons are on uncertainty, communication and exaggeration for the benefit of telling a story.

I stated, above, that how we use uncertainty is highly personal. I have used climate knowledge and weather uncertainty to choose the location of a house on the Chesapeake Bay as well as to decide whether of not to take a kayak out into a hurricane. In neither case did I feel I was taking on large risk. This weekend, I (over)heard what seemed to be a discussion of two people deciding not to vaccinate their son because they had determined that their son had exceptional natural immunity. A relevant weather-related example of personal choice and, perhaps, the subconscious is the evidence that people take hurricanes named after women less seriously than hurricanes named after men. It made me think of naming winter storms and what Venus or Vesta might suggest compared to Jupiter or Mars. That, of course, led to Nell, Dudley and Snidely.

One thing that I count on from scientific organizations is a dispassionate description of events and uncertainty. Winter storms, especially if we are going to personify them, need a dispassionate, standard scale to describe them. The weather service has several scales that are effective for hurricanes, tornadoes and storms at sea. Winter storms offer a difficult detail, namely, the rain-ice-snow line, whose boundaries are tricky and important. Climate change offers the additional difficulty that characteristics of storms are changing and expected to change more. Therefore, placing storms within recent and historic context seems like a potentially usable piece of information. We need qualifiers, not number-heavy quantifiers. We don’t need to explain numerical dispersion errors in models to the masses. We don’t need to break down all of the pieces – to speak loudly and more slowly.

From the point of view of the climate scientist and the roles that climate change plays in a particular storm – it is always true that public communication is walking into a maelstrom where people have many agendas of how they want to use uncertainty – to make something happen or to keep something from happening. I have had colleagues tell me that there is an imperative to participate in ever loudening ways to convey the knowledge of climate change. This does not appeal or seem effective to me. Those conversations of deliberate disruption and doubt need to be identified for what they are and left in their stewing pool. We need to persistently differentiate the important aspects of climate change, isolate the deliberate disruption, and more effectively expose that which is important about climate change in the many conversations that are emerging.

r


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 214 - 164

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

One of the new methane blowholes that experts are interested in is one dubbed B2. Satellite images show that it is a big lake that is surrounded by over 20 small water-filled craters. Analysis of the satellite images show that there were originally no craters and lakes but then the craters started to emerge. Scientists think that the water-filled craters merged and eventually become one large lake.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
The Siberian blow outs, have blow-up on the Google news feed -



Dozens of Methane Blowholes Spotted In Siberia: Why Experts Worry

Months after conducting investigations of a big black hole that mysteriously appeared in Siberia, researchers from Russia revealed that they have discovered more of these craters, with one of the recently discovered being found to be a big lake surrounded by over 20 baby craters that are filled with water.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
211. RevElvis

One more for that list -

The Eiffel Tower Just Got A Wind Turbine Makeover

As part of its first major retrofit in 30 years, two custom-designed wind turbines have started generating power for the Eiffel Tower. Located above the World Heritage Site’s second level, about 400 feet off the ground, the sculptural wind turbines are now producing 10,000 kWh of electricity annually, equivalent to the power used by the commercial areas of the Eiffel Tower’s first floor. The vertical axis turbines, which are capable of harnessing wind from any direction, were also given a custom paint job to further incorporate them into the iconic monument’s 1,000-foot frame. At the same time they bring the image of the 1889 tower firmly into the 21st Century.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Renewable Energy Is Skyrocketing, From Solar Mosques to Wave-Powered Naval Bases

Article at TruthDig.com

1. China put in a massive 21 gigawatts of new wind power in 2014

2. Turkey has announced that it will try to add 20 gigawatts of wind energy

3. Australia has just opened the world’s first large-scale wave power facility

4. The Jordanian government has announced its determination to install solar panels on the roofs of all 6,000 of the country’s mosques.

5. Germany cut its carbon dioxide emissions by 5 percent in 2014

6. In the UK in January, wind turbines generated an impressive 14% of all the electricity used in the isles.

7. Denmark produced almost 40% of its electricity from wind in 2014
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Nell, Dudley and Snidely: Uncertainty

Wynken, Blynken, and Nod (1889)

Wynken, Blynken, and Nod one night
Sailed off in a wooden shoe
Sailed on a river of crystal light,
Into a sea of dew.
"Where are you going, and what do you wish?"
The old moon asked the three.
"We have come to fish for the herring fish
That live in this beautiful sea;
Nets of silver and gold have we!"
Said Wynken, Blynken, and Nod.

The old moon laughed and sang a song,
As they rocked in the wooden shoe,
And the wind that sped them all night long
Ruffled the waves of dew.
The little stars were the herring fish
That lived in that beautiful sea
"Now cast your nets wherever you wish
Never afeard are we";
So cried the stars to the fishermen three:
Wynken, Blynken, and Nod.

All night long their nets they threw
To the stars in the twinkling foam
Then down from the skies came the wooden shoe,
Bringing the fishermen home;
'Twas all so pretty a sail it seemed
As if it could not be,
And some folks thought 'twas a dream they'd dreamed
Of sailing that beautiful sea
But I shall name you the fishermen three:
Wynken, Blynken, and Nod.

Wynken and Blynken are two little eyes,
And Nod is a little head,
And the wooden shoe that sailed the skies
Is a wee one's trundle-bed.
So shut your eyes while mother sings
Of wonderful sights that be,
And you shall see the beautiful things
As you rock in the misty sea,
Where the old shoe rocked the fishermen three:
Wynken, Blynken, and Nod

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Ocean circulation change: Sea level spiked for two years along Northeastern North America

img src="">

Sea levels from New York to Newfoundland jumped up about four inches in 2009 and 2010 because ocean circulation changed. The unusual spike in sea level caused flooding along the northeast coast of North America and was independent of any hurricanes or winter storms. A new article documents that the extreme increase in sea level rise lasted two years, not just a few months.

ScienceDaily.com
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Most French Nuclear Plants 'Should Be Shut Down' Over Drone Threat



“You don’t need massive amounts of force to allow a nuclear plant to go into instability. The plant has enough energy to destroy itself. Drones can be used to tickle the plant into instability.”

With devastating simplicity, John Large explains how drones could be used to coordinate a terror attack on a nuclear power station. First, one drone hits the distribution grid serving the plant, depriving the facility of off-site power, making it dependent on its diesel generators to cool the reactor, which generates up to 1,000 megawatts of power – enough to light up half of Paris. Then the generators are easily taken out by an unmanned drone with a relatively small payload. Without power to cool the radioactive fuel, Large estimates it would take approximately 30 seconds before the fuel begins to melt, leading to potential leakages of nuclear waste.

It’s the same cause behind the meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan after it was hit by a tsunami in March 2011. But potential terrorists wouldn’t need to trigger an earthquake, just be able to accurately pilot a pair of readily-available commercial drones carrying small payloads of explosive. Last year, unmanned drones were spotted flying over at least 13 nuclear power stations in France. The last widely-reported sighting was on 3 January, when two aircraft were seen flying over a nuclear facility in Nogent-sur-Seine, in northern-central France.

Read more >>
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Ocean acidification slows algae growth in the southern ocean

Summary:
Scientists demonstrate for the first time that ocean acidification could have negative impacts on diatoms in the Southern Ocean. In laboratory tests they were able to observe that under changing light conditions, diatoms grow more slowly in acidic water.


Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


Coral disease linked to a warming Atlantic


Summary:
Over the last four decades, the iconic elkhorn and staghorn corals that dominated Caribbean reefs for millions of years have all but disappeared. According to a new study, ocean warming has played a significant role in this dramatic decline.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
President Obama has vetoed the Keystone XL pipeline. As a Canadian all I can say is well done Mr. President, well done. You are 10 times the leader that we have in Ottawa...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 194. Cochise111:
Are climate modelers really scientists? They don't follow the scientific method, and aren't bound by the same restraints as physical scientists. They seem to make it up as they go along:

So you are saying that Dr. Ricky Rood, climate scientist, climate modeling expert, and the owner of this blog makes thing up as he goes along?

Are you smarter than Ricky?

In response to chemist Patrick Frank's 2008 article in Skeptic Magazine, NASA/GISS Director climatologist, and climate modeler Gavin Schmidt says:

"Try judging who sounds credible. Frank's estimate is naive beyond belief - how can it possibly be that the uncertainty is that large when you look at the stability of the control runs or the spread in the different models as shown above?"
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 194. Cochise111:

Are climate modelers really scientists? They don't follow the scientific method, and aren't bound by the same restraints as physical scientists. They seem to make it up as they go along:

Link

The models are bound by the restraints of the known laws of physics as they work in the atmosphere and on the earth.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Tokelau's low-lying Nukunonu Atoll, is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. UN Photo/Ariane Rummery (file photo)

2015 pivotal for finalizing universal climate change agreement, Ban tells Member States

23 February 2015 – This year is pivotal for global action on climate change, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said today in New York, emphasising that all the major advances of 2014 have set the stage for success in 2015.

“Our challenge now is clear: to finalize a meaningful, universal agreement on climate change,” Mr. Ban told Member States at a briefing on relevant progress as momentum builds towards a meeting to be held in Paris this December, when leaders are expected to reach a landmark treaty.

“Addressing climate change is essential for realizing sustainable development. If we fail to adequately address climate change, we will be unable to build a world that supports a life of dignity for all,” the Secretary-General warned.

Joining Mr. Ban at the briefing was President of the UN General Assembly, Sam Kutesa, as well as the Permanent Representatives of Peru and France, who organized the gathering.

Today's briefing follows the 20th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), held in Lima, last December where Member States reached the “Lima Call for Climate Action”, paving the way for a new, ambitious and universally-binding climate agreement to be adopted in Paris (COP21) this December.

Talks in Lima are also said to have contributed to furthering negotiations during last week's Geneva Climate Change Conference, where Parties also delivered a comprehensive and balanced text.

“Recent months have seen strong progress on climate change. At the Climate Summit I convened last September, I said we needed 'all hands on deck.' I am pleased to say that this is indeed what happened: Governments, along with leaders of finance, business and civil society, came together to announce significant new actions that can reduce emissions and strengthen resilience,” said Mr. Ban.

The Secretary-General's September Summit also catalyzed “much-needed momentum” on climate finance. Public and private sector leaders pledged to mobilize over $200 billion by the end of 2015 to finance low-carbon, climate-resilient growth. And in Lima, in December, Parties built on earlier announcements by the European Union, China and the United States to reduce their emissions. They also launched the Lima Paris Action Agenda and pledged the $10 billion needed for the initial capitalization of the Green Climate Fund.

The Secretary-General underscored that 2015 is particularly crucial for several landmark meetings: COP21 in Paris in December to adopt a universal text on climate change; UN special summit in September to adopt a global development agenda; financing for development conference in July in Addis Ababa, to renew commitment to global development; and next month's gathering in Sendai, Japan, to strengthen framework on disaster risk reduction.

To that end, Mr. Ban urged all pledging countries to deliver their contributions as soon as possible. “Climate finance is critical, not only for catalyzing action, but for building the political trust needed to reach a universal agreement in Paris,” he said, emphasizing that developed countries need to set out a clear trajectory for achieving the goal of mobilizing $100 billion per year by 2020. And resilience must be strengthened, especially in the small island states and least developed countries.

“We have no time to waste, and much to gain by moving quickly down a lower-carbon pathway. All countries must be part of the solution if we are to stay below the 2 degrees Celsius temperature rise threshold,” the Secretary-General said.

Also delivering remarks today, Assembly President Kutesa called on Member States to build on the “constructive spirit” that prevailed in Lima and Geneva to reach consensus on both the content and the legal nature of the final agreement.

“To successfully reach this objective, strong and sustained political will is of vital necessity,” he added, reiterating that climate change is one of the key priorities of his 69th General Assembly: a session which is striving to shape the post-2015 development agenda, financing for development, as well as a new global framework on disaster reduction.

Negotiations for all these pertinent issues must be “mutually reinforcing,” Mr. Kutesa explained, noting that his high-level event on climate change to be held on 29 June is an opportunity to ensure the necessary focus and momentum are maintained. “I encourage Member States to participate in this event at the highest political level to convey a strong message on the critical importance of the negotiation process.”

The international community must demonstrate its commitment toward delivering a final agreement in Paris that improves lives, promotes achievement of sustainable development, protects the environment and preserves our planet's integrity, he added.

“As we make the final push toward Paris, it is abundantly clear that expectations are high. The world is watching with great anticipation to see how we respond to this historic opportunity to shape the future of our planet,” Mr. Kutesa emphasized.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


Pacific Science Center helps visualize climate change since 1880 – in seconds
BY FRANK CATALANO on February 24, 2015 at 6:39 am


Understanding how climate change is reflected in global temperatures can make one’s head spin. So the Pacific Science Center is helping spur that understanding by projecting climate change’s effects on something that normally does spin — a globe.

Using a newly updated data set from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that covers global temperatures from 1880 through 2014, the Seattle-based science center will display the data as animation on a huge globe in its Science on a Sphere exhibit. As each year flashes by, the sphere shows where Earth’s surface temperatures were warmer (red) or colder (blue) than the 20th century average, culminating in 2014, the warmest year since record-keeping began in 1880.

The impressive visualization is part of Pacific Science Center’s tenth annual Polar Science Weekend. Starting Friday and running through Sunday, March 1, the activities and explanations also include scientists’ research from the University of Washington on Arctic ice melt, a model of a narwhal tusk, and an explanation of why penguins and polar bears never meet socially in their native habitats.

The global temperature data will be presented in the Polar Regions Demo show scheduled up to twice each day. Polar Science Weekend activities are included in regular Pacific Science Center admission.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Ocean circulation change: Sea level spiked for two years along Northeastern North America

Summary:
Sea levels from New York to Newfoundland jumped up about four inches in 2009 and 2010 because ocean circulation changed. The unusual spike in sea level caused flooding along the northeast coast of North America and was independent of any hurricanes or winter storms. A new article documents that the extreme increase in sea level rise lasted two years, not just a few months.


Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
#194 So I finally read that article. The guy's paper is rejected by 9/10 reviewers and he's angry. That means his paper is crap. And it turns out, his argument is that his paper is so brilliant that no one understands how brilliant it is. And you guys actually believe this stuff, huh? Amazing.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Oh, poor guys are back to being enraged about models, that's quaint. Weren't you the same people all excited about Soon and Monckton's paper about their "new climate model" until it turned out the model was really just plagiarized and Soon was an ethics violator? I say...which is it, at some point you are going to have to come up with a single position instead of any position that isn't the scientific one.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

194.

Keep digging in that manure pile, you're bound to find a pony under it someday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
The Soon fallacy

However, a valid question is whether the science that arose from these funds is any good? It’s certainly conceivable that Soon’s work was too radical for standard federal research programs and that these energy companies were really taking a chance on blue-sky high risk research that might have the potential to shake things up. In such a case, someone might be tempted to overlook the ethical lapses and conflicts of interest for the sake of scientific advancement (though far too many similar post-hoc justifications have been used to excuse horrific unethical practices for this to be remotely defendable).

Unfortunately, the evidence from the emails and the work itself completely undermines that argument because the work and the motivation behind it are based on a scientific fallacy.


- See more at: Real Climate
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Acceleration and spatial rheology of Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

Article first published online: 13 MAY 2011

Abstract

[1] The disintegration of several Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves has focused attention on the state of the Larsen C Ice Shelf. Here, we use satellite observations to map ice shelf speed from the years 2000, 2006 and 2008 and apply inverse modeling to examine the spatial pattern of ice-shelf stiffness. Results show that the northern half of the ice shelf has been accelerating since 2000, speeding up by 15% between 2000 and 2006 alone. The distribution of ice stiffness exhibits large spatial variations that we link to tributary glacier flow and fractures. Our results reveal that ice down-flow from promontories is consistently softer, with the exception of Churchill Peninsula where we infer a stabilizing role for marine ice. We conclude that although Larsen C is not facing imminent collapse, it is undergoing significant change in the form of flow acceleration that is spatially related to thinning and fracture.


Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
The imbalance of glaciers after disintegration of Larsen-B ice shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

Abstract. The outlet glaciers to the embayment of the Larsen-B Ice Shelf started to accelerate soon after the ice shelf disintegrated in March 2002. We analyse high resolution radar images of the TerraSAR-X satellite, launched in June 2007, to map the motion of outlet glaciers in detail. The frontal velocities are used to estimate the calving fluxes for 2008/2009. As reference for pre-collapse conditions, when the glaciers were in balanced state, the ice fluxes through the same gates are computed using ice motion maps derived from interferometric data of the ERS-1/ERS-2 satellites in 1995 and 1999. Profiles of satellite laser altimetry from ICESat, crossing the terminus of several glaciers, indicate considerable glacier thinning between 2003 and 2007/2008. This is taken into account for defining the calving cross sections. The difference between the pre- and post-collapse fluxes provides an estimate on the mass imbalance. For the Larsen-B embayment the 2008 mass deficit is estimated at 4.34 ± 1.64 Gt a−1, significantly lower than previously published values. The ice flow acceleration follows a similar pattern on the various glaciers, gradually decreasing in magnitude with distance upstream from the calving front. This suggests stress perturbation at the glacier front being the main factor for acceleration. So far there are no signs of slow-down indicating that dynamic thinning and frontal retreat will go on.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Another Blow to Antarctic Glacial Stability as Larsen C Ice Shelf Cracks Up

(Northern edge of Larsen C Ice Shelf is at significant risk of breaking off as a massive rift continues to open within it. The above image shows the rate of rift propagation since November of 2010. Image source: Cryosphere Discussions.)

There’s a 30 kilometer long and hundreds foot deep crack running through West Antarctica’s massive Larsen C ice shelf.

It’s a rift that now stretches from the Weddell Sea — where winds and currents have driven human-warmed ocean waters to up-well along the ocean-contacting faces of the great Antarctic ice sheets — and deep into the interior of this 49,000 square kilometer and 600 to 700 foot tall block of ancient, floating ice.

Over the past few years this rift has been rapidly advancing at a rate of about 2.5 kilometers each year. Given that the rift has already traversed more than half of the Larsen C ice shelf calving face, a very large break-up could now occur at almost any time.


Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 187. JohnLonergan:



You left out many are little more than bots spewing the BS that they receive thru the antennae in their tin foil hats.


If you use high quality tin foil you can pick up AM radio from anywhere.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 164. Naga5000:



Is it a prerequisite for science denialists to not be able to understand scientific journal articles? Do you guys all sit around and find the most agreed upon misinterpretation, followed by the most agreed upon leap of logic to then pester people with? Or do you really just not understand the words in front of your faces?


You left out many are little more than bots spewing the BS that they receive thru the antennae in their tin foil hats.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
We can run saltwater thru them all to make a lot of taffy when the oil runs dry.

And it will.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
167 - wonder how many of those pipelines were built with earthquakes in mind ?



New Madrid Fault wiki

With all the political "shenanigans" going on - seems like a better idea would be to take a serious look at re-designing & fixing our crumbling infrastructure (bridges, road, rail & energy) -
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Well thats gonna require a tad mo tabasco seems....,sadly.




MON FEB 23, 2015 AT 10:34 AM PST
After pipeline spill, petroleum confirmed in the fish of the Yellowstone River


In January, 50,000 barrels of oil spilled into the Yellowstone River from a pipeline near Glendive, Montana. At the time, officials said they were "unaware of threats to public safety or health."
Now, more than a month later, officials are offering a sad warning:

Detectable levels of petroleum were found in tests of fish pulled from the Yellowstone River downstream from a broken petroleum pipeline near Glendive last month.
This week, Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks advised fishermen to use caution when deciding whether to eat fish caught in the area affected by the oil spill.

Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks biologist Trevor Selch said testing was hampered by ice and would continue.
Until all of the tests are complete and the data is analyzed, Selch advised anglers to continue to use caution when deciding whether to eat fish.
This seems like a pretty good indication you should avoid eating any fish caught downstream from the pipeline spill for the foreseeable future.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Losing Ground: Louisiana is drowning, quickly.



In just 80 years, some 2,000 square miles of its coastal landscape have turned to open water, wiping places off maps, bringing the Gulf of Mexico to the back door of New Orleans and posing a lethal threat to an energy and shipping corridor vital to the nation’s economy.

ProPublica.org
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Study: Effects of climate change on wheat will be dire



MANHATTAN — A study of wheat yields by 53 researchers on six continents, including a Kansas State University professor, has found the effects of climate change on Kansas’ top crop will be far more disastrous, and begin much sooner, than previous thought.

Each time the average global temperature increases by one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), global wheat grain production is reduced by about 6 percent, according to the study published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change.

According to the researchers, the 6 percent decline would equate to 42 megatons, or 42 million tons, of wheat each time the global temperature rises by a single degree Celsius.

“To put this in perspective, the amount is equal to a quarter of global wheat trade, which reached 147 (megatons) in 2013,” the researchers wrote. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported last September that the Earth had warmed .85 degrees Celsius between 1880 and 2012.

Among the 53 researchers is Dr. Vara Prasad, a professor of crop ecophysiology at Kansas State.


Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
MORE PIPELINE !
/s




Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

How global warming could turn Siberia into a giant crater %u2018time bomb%u2019
By Anna Liesowska & Derek Lambie
25 December 2014

Scientists say there is growing evidence that rising temperatures were catalyst for massive unexplained holes in ground.

Link



Dr Leibman told the Siberian Times: %u2018We have agreed that in the area of Bovanenkovo there was an emission of gas and gas hydrates caused by the heating of the earth%u2019s surface and geological features of the site. These phenomena caused the formation of crater.

%u2018In the last 14 years, the overall temperature in the depths of the Yamal has increased by at least two degrees Celsius.

%u2018In some areas of the region seasonal thawing of permafrost may affect the upper layers of ice and, under certain circumstances, cause thawing and dissociation of gas hydrates.%u2019

She added: %u2018I would argue this is a new process, which was not observed previously. It can be seen as a reaction to changes in the temperature, which releases gas, possibly hidden in the form of relic hydrate, from the upper layers of permafrost.%u2019
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Only in Cochise's world. .....................

Black ice causes cars wrecks , therefore all car wrecks are caused by black ice.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 167. Xulonn:

Really? Do you actually think that it would be safe and cost effective to build pipelines to every gas station in the U.S.? (The story was about a gasoline tank truck.)

Yet another example of you not being able to think things trough and come up with a rational idea.



Major (not all) oil, gas and hazardous material pipelines in the U.S.



Well...that explains Kansas.

I kid. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Dozens of new craters suspected in northern Russia

By Anna Liesowska
23 February 2015

Satellites show giant hole ringed by 20 ‘baby craters’.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 164. Naga5000:



Is it a prerequisite for science denialists to not be able to understand scientific journal articles? Do you guys all sit around and find the most agreed upon misinterpretation, followed by the most agreed upon leap of logic to then pester people with? Or do you really just not understand the words in front of your faces?


I asked many fourth grade son to read the abstract and tell me what he thought it said. He admitted he didn't understand everything they were talking about, but it seemed to him that they were comparing what was happening now to what happened in the past and showing how bad things get when these "tipping points" are reached.

You know, I'm not sure big daddy C realizes just how bad he makes himself look when he posts nonsense like this. It certainly does him no favors for credibility when e clearly doesn't understand and/or deliberately tries to misrepresent scientific research.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 174. wartsttocs:
Wait a minute, pipelines sending gasoline to gas stations? Is that a thing? I thought tanker trucks brought in all the gas.
Only in Cochise's world. He responded to news about a gasoline tanker explosion by saying we needed more pipelines.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
wait a minute, pipelines sending gasoline to gas stations? Is that a thing? I thought tanker trucks brought in all the gas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Koch's partially funded Berkeley Earth, it was disclosed properly. Berkeley Earth is one of the most robust reviews of data ever undertaken in the history of man and was done with full transparency. The same cannot be said for Soon's work as he hid his funding. There was no transparency and so the body of his work now must be questioned (and to be honest, it all ready was as his work contained heavy methodological issues).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
#169

You still don't understand the difference between accepting funding and disclosing your sources as an ethics requirement, and accepting funding and failing to disclose your sources? There is a reason ethics is part of learning how to science, bro.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 168. schwankmoe:



can't it be all three?


Ding ding ding, tell this man what he's won!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
169: Recently? Citing a blog from 2012? Old news. Have you checked your calendar "recently"?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 164. Naga5000:



Is it a prerequisite for science denialists to not be able to understand scientific journal articles? Do you guys all sit around and find the most agreed upon misinterpretation, followed by the most agreed upon leap of logic to then pester people with? Or do you really just not understand the words in front of your faces?


can't it be all three?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 162:


That's why we need more pipelines.
Really? Do you actually think that it would be safe and cost effective to build pipelines to every gas station in the U.S.? (The story was about a gasoline tank truck.)

Yet another example of you not being able to think things through and come up with a rational idea.

Since 1986, pipeline accidents have killed more than 500 people, injured over 4,000, and cost nearly seven billion dollars in property damages. Using government data, ProPublica has mapped thousands of these incidents in a new interactive news application, which provides detailed information about the cause and costs of reported incidents going back nearly three decades.


Major (not all) oil, gas and hazardous material pipelines in the U.S.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 162:
That's why we need more pipelines.
Yep, we should build one from every refinery to every terminal to every gas station.

Not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 158. riverat544:


One thing that ought to be looked in to before proceeding with something like this is how much it will affect photosynthesis and the yield of agricultural crops.
Exactly.

The NYT piece makes it sound like the NRC report is recommending research into climate modification so we can do it (modify the climate). On the contrary, the report is not in favor of climate modification methods, but says that we had better research them thoroughly because there will likely be pressure to do "something", and we need to know the consequences of doing climate modification before that pressure starts.

Following is the conclusion of the summary report. Links to the summary and the entire report (two parts) are available here

http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/publi c-release-event-climate-intervention-reports/

Climate change is a global challenge, and addressing it will require a portfolio of responses with varying degrees of risk and efficacy. There
is no substitute for dramatic reduc- tions in greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change, together with adaptation of human and natural systems to make them more resil- ient to changing climate. However,
if society ultimately decides to intervene in Earth’s climate, the Committee most strongly recom- mends any such actions be informed by a far more substantive body of scientific research—encompassing climate science and economic,
political, ethical, and other dimen- sions—than is available at present.

----------
All of which sounds to me like a polite way of saying: as soon as somebody figures out a way to make a lot of money from climate modification, the Inhofes of the world will start arguing how crucial it is that we do something right away, so we need to be ready to say "no, you can't do that, it will just make things worse". Although I'm not sure that will be enough to stop them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 163. Cochise111:

Another inconvenient study: Natural phenomena wiped out coral reefs 4100 years ago and it lasted for 2000 years. I wonder how the warmists will blame man for this. I'm sure AGW can be figured into the mix:

Link


Is it a prerequisite for science denialists to not be able to understand scientific journal articles? Do you guys all sit around and find the most agreed upon misinterpretation, followed by the most agreed upon leap of logic to then pester people with? Or do you really just not understand the words in front of your faces?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 214 - 164

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

Top of Page

Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change Blog

About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.