March Rainfall Records Doused; Damaging Freeze Possible in Northeast

By: Bob Henson , 6:03 PM GMT on March 31, 2016

More severe weather is in store for Thursday and Friday after tornadoes hopscotched near and east of Tulsa on Wednesday and flooding rains inundated other areas. A damage survey was underway in northeast Oklahoma on Thursday morning in the wake of the tornadoes, which caused at least seven injuries and damaged a number of structures. One of the twisters was visible from Tulsa International Airport (see video here, from Twitter user Brandyn). In its roundup of severe weather reports from Wednesday, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) listed four preliminary tornado reports from the storm near Tulsa, along with two other reports from southeast Kansas and southeast Arkansas.

The greatest threat for severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening is across northern Mississippi, northwest Alabama, and western Tennessee, where the 11:30 am CDT outlook from SPC is calling for an enhanced risk of severe weather (Figure 1). An outflow boundary from previous storms is stretched east-west across northern MS and AL. As upper-level energy approaches, this boundary will serve to enhance vertical wind shear, and a strong tornado or two could develop in supercells that form near the boundary. The upper-level trough and associated cold front will slide across the central Gulf Coast on Friday, leading to a continued risk of severe weather in that area--primarily high winds and large hail, together with heavy rain. Severe storms are also possible northward along the cold front to the mid-Atlantic, particularly in the Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina if temperatures warm enough there on Friday.


Figure 1. The convective outlooks issued by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center late Wednesday morning, March 30, 2016, included an enhanced risk area for Wednesday centered on northern Mississippi and a slight risk for Thursday near the central Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. A tornado touches down in the vicinity of Tulsa, OK, on Wednesday, March 30, 2016. Image credit: AP Photo/Larry Papke.

Wettest March on record for Memphis, Little Rock
Today’s rains will serve as a capstone to a March that already ranks among the wettest on record for states bordering the lower Mississippi River. As of midnight Wednesday night, Memphis, TN, was sitting at 13.78” for the month. This already beats the previous March record of 13.04” from the region’s devastating spring of 1927, which brought the worst river flood in our nation’s history. Memphis records go back to 1872. In Little Rock, AR, an even 4.00” on Wednesday led to widespread flooding across the area. Little Rock has now racked up its wettest March by far since records began in 1875, with 12.22” this month beating out 10.43” (1897). Both Memphis and Little Rock will have added to their March totals before the day and month are done; Memphis will go up by at least 2.00” based on rains that had already fallen by midday Thursday.


Figure 3. Temperatures projected from this morning’s 12Z Thursday run of the GFS model for 12Z (7:00 am CDT) Tuesday, April 5, 2016. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.

Widespread freeze damage possible next week across East
Early April may bring a cruel surprise to many trees and shrubs that popped into premature bloom over the last several weeks across the Northeast. It finally dipped below freezing on Wednesday morning in Baltimore and in areas just west of I-95. However, from New York southward, it’s still been nearly a month since most of the urban corridor has seen a hard freeze. In New York and Philadelphia, the last temperature below 32°F was back on March 5, although Central Park touched 32° on March 20 and 21. During the 1981-2010 climatological period, the average date for the final reading of 31°F or colder in Central Park was on March 13. Making matters worse--though it seemed pleasant enough at the time--was the spell of record-smashing mid-March warmth that sent temperatures into the low 80s in parts of New York and New England.

The lack of snow cover over the Northeast has allowed soil temperatures to warm as well, which hastens the budding and blooming of trees. The mildness has advanced New Jersey’s growing season by several weeks, state climatologist David Robinson (Rutgers University) told AgWeb. Plum and peach trees in the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania were already in bloom this week. In Washington, D.C., the famed yoshino cherry blossoms of the Tidal Basin hit peak bloom on March 25, almost two weeks before the April 4 average and earlier than in all recent years, with the notable exceptions of 2012 (March 20) and 1990 (March 15).


Figure 4. Temperatures across the entire nation except for the Pacific Northwest coast were well above average for the period March 1 – 29, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/CPC.


Several rounds of cold weather are on tap for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast over the next few days. Temperatures may dip to near freezing from D.C. northward on Sunday morning, with colder readings well into the 20s possible across much of the area by midweek (see Figure 3 above), and perhaps again by next weekend. Although these readings are 20°F to 30°F below average, they’re unlikely to set very many record lows: the latest 32°F temperatures on record are April 29 in Washington, May 11 in Baltimore and Philadelphia, and May 6 in Central Park. However, the impacts of the coming cooldown may be more akin to getting a freeze in mid- to late April, given the advanced state of plant growth over the region. The situation brings to mind the disastrous freeze of April 11-12, 2012, which followed the unprecedented Great Warm Wave of March. That freeze, together with frosts later that month, devastated already-blooming fruit trees across the Midwest and Northeast. In Michigan, the apple crop was virtually wiped out.

WU weather historian Christopher Burt has a new blog post summarizing where California stands in terms of snowpack and precipitation after a not-quite-miraculous March.

Bob Henson


Figure 5. Dogwood blossoms on Wednesday, March 30, 2016, in Danville, VA. Image credit: wunderphotographer WeatherWise.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 108 - 58

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108. vis0
7:42 PM GMT on April 01, 2016
Quoting 102. islander101010:

waters rising fast now its over the sea wall up on the grass. NOT. Happy April Fools
Who  knows one day you might have to "drink" those words.. (wish i was wrong.  If not the delay 'n look the other way game will eventually give-in to one of natures' law of water leveling out.  In time even the "sponge" areas of Earth will be over saturated, break apart and the eventual change to the land under you/future "yous", will be more dramatic.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
107. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:12 PM GMT on April 01, 2016
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
106. elioe
1:04 PM GMT on April 01, 2016
My guess is, that this is the first image, in which all the 12 runs are with the equatorial Atlantic SST error corrected?



Meanwhile in Finland, we may see almost summer conditions in two weeks!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
105. LargoFl
12:55 PM GMT on April 01, 2016

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 74
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
725 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 725 AM UNTIL
300 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...OFFERING OCCASIONAL DAMAGING
GUSTS AND THE RISK OF A COUPLE TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOTHAN
ALABAMA TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
104. weathermanwannabe
12:39 PM GMT on April 01, 2016
And the big picture for the US today:


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
103. weathermanwannabe
12:34 PM GMT on April 01, 2016
Good Morning. Spent the week down in South Florida tending to the aging parents and went to a concert on Wed night in Ft. Lauderdale; saw guitar wizard Robin Trower (Bridge of Sighs) who is now 71 years old and my friend-drummer set up the whole thing. 3rd row seat right in front of Mr. Trower and a meet and greet with him after the show with pictures and autographs..............A night I will always remember; he was a contemporary of Hendrix and a brilliant guitarist who has been my main influence since 75.

Weather wise, it had been raining in Tallahassee for several days when I left on Sunday, it rained in South Florida while I was there until yesterday, and raining again in Tallahassee this morning. Florida has been soaked the past several weeks with typical El Nino rains with more to come today:


%uFFFD%uFFFD%uFFFD
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
102. islander101010
12:10 PM GMT on April 01, 2016
waters rising fast now its over the sea wall up on the grass. NOT. Happy April Fools
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
101. MahFL
11:36 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Quoting 95. pureet1948:

latest HGX Disco:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 010448
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

06Z AVIATION...CF IS NEARING HOU...AFTER STALLING MUCH OF THE
EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE IMMEDIATE COAST 7Z TO 9Z. LIFR FG
WILL CONTINUE FOR 2-4 MORE HOURS AT LBX AND GLS. NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. AN AREA OF -SHRA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS FROM THE SW TO NE IN THE 12Z TO 20Z PD. COULD SEE ISO
TSRA...BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AM HOURS. DUE
TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE S TX COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL SEE STRONG N WINDS FRI EVE ...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. 33


What's this mean in English?


Read the glossary, increase your knowledge :


Glossary



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
100. vis0
9:45 AM GMT on April 01, 2016

Quoting 46. BaltimoreBrian:

Laser cloaking device could help us hide from aliens: A 22W laser used for adaptive optics on the Very Large Telescope in Chile. A suite of similar lasers could be used to alter the shape of a planet's transit for the purpose of broadcasting or cloaking the planet Do alien civilizations conceal themselves from each other--and from us? Should we conceal ourselves?


from ourselves   :- P )))))))   *_*
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
99. wartsttocs
9:35 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Quoting 94. Dakster:

Saw a Mama and Baby Moose on the side of the highway today. Spring has sprung. I'm sure baby bears are right around the corner. One was spotted a couple of weeks ago as we got a warning, but I haven't seen any bears this year, yet.

KOTG - Yeah that warm, moist air is kinda annoying. Thanks for that post.


Just saw a fisher cat up close at lunch. It was 70 degrees F then. Maybe a thunderstorm today. Looks like 20s and 30s Sunday and Monday with some light snow.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
98. Patrap
5:35 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Quoting 94. Dakster:

Saw a Mama and Baby Moose on the side of the highway today. Spring has sprung. I'm sure baby bears are right around the corner. One was spotted a couple of weeks ago as we got a warning, but I haven't seen any bears this year, yet.

KOTG - Yeah that warm, moist air is kinda annoying. Thanks for that post.


"In the middle of Winter the tree's are bare and Bear's are hibernating'...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
97. swflurker
5:25 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Going to get a little breezy with a few showers.
Also, if you got this from the NWS site, they have links to their abbreviations!

Quoting 95. pureet1948:

latest HGX Disco:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 010448
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

06Z AVIATION...CF IS NEARING HOU...AFTER STALLING MUCH OF THE
EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE IMMEDIATE COAST 7Z TO 9Z. LIFR FG
WILL CONTINUE FOR 2-4 MORE HOURS AT LBX AND GLS. NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. AN AREA OF -SHRA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS FROM THE SW TO NE IN THE 12Z TO 20Z PD. COULD SEE ISO
TSRA...BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AM HOURS. DUE
TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE S TX COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL SEE STRONG N WINDS FRI EVE ...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. 33


What's this mean in English?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
96. Jedkins01
5:24 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Tesla is recently just unveiled it's new model 3, and it sounds great, a price starting at $35 K, after government tax credit, it would come to less than 30 K.

Also, performance and features are still expected to be great despite the much cheaper price, and a range expected over 200 miles.

Link

Time for me to start setting aside money in savings after graduation. I've been really hoping for a great and practical electric car for a while, we need smarter, and better sustainable transportation. And as someone who is passionate about such, I'd like to be part of the solution if I can.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
95. pureet1948
5:05 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
latest HGX Disco:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 010448
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

06Z AVIATION...CF IS NEARING HOU...AFTER STALLING MUCH OF THE
EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE IMMEDIATE COAST 7Z TO 9Z. LIFR FG
WILL CONTINUE FOR 2-4 MORE HOURS AT LBX AND GLS. NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. AN AREA OF -SHRA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS FROM THE SW TO NE IN THE 12Z TO 20Z PD. COULD SEE ISO
TSRA...BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AM HOURS. DUE
TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE S TX COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL SEE STRONG N WINDS FRI EVE ...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. 33


What's this mean in English?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
94. Dakster
4:17 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Saw a Mama and Baby Moose on the side of the highway today. Spring has sprung. I'm sure baby bears are right around the corner. One was spotted a couple of weeks ago as we got a warning, but I haven't seen any bears this year, yet.

KOTG - Yeah that warm, moist air is kinda annoying. Thanks for that post.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
93. Patrap
4:16 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
92. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:14 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Quoting 83. Dakster:

Meanwhile Alaska broke a heat record. 71f in the state... in march....

http://www.adn.com/article/20160331/temperature-j ust-hit-71-degrees-alaska-march

Link




Alaska is getting a nice southern maritime flow off pacific
keeping things toasty all the while a flow to the south east
east of it is setting sights on the eastern north American continent
over the weekend as the flow is force se ward over mid central Canada
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
91. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:09 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Quoting 89. Mediarologist:

My posts seem to be randomly disappearing. I guess a notification would be at least courteous.
give it up
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
90. Patrap
4:00 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
89. Mediarologist
3:51 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
My posts seem to be randomly disappearing. I guess a notification would be at least courteous.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
88. Patrap
3:47 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1042 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
TORNADO WARNING     HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 1000 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 939 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
TORNADO WARNING     HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 935 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
TORNADO WARNING     HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 924 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 920 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 918 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
TORNADO WARNING     BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 917 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 906 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 905 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
TORNADO WARNING     HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 855 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 855 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
TORNADO WARNING     HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 835 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
87. BaltimoreBrian
3:01 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Dakster & DCwithunderscores, this site has monthly temperature records for the states. Unfortunately it's only updated through 2004. I'll ask Christopher Burt if there is a more current list.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
86. DCSwithunderscores
2:57 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
ALASKA - NEW RECORD EARLIEST 70 F + TEMPERATURE: A 71 F / 22 C temperature at Klawock AK today is the first time that a temperature of at least 70 F has been recorded anywhere in Alaska before April in a calendar year.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
85. BaltimoreBrian
2:55 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Quoting 83. Dakster:

Meanwhile Alaska broke a heat record. 71f in the state... in march....

http://www.adn.com/article/20160331/temperature-j ust-hit-71-degrees-alaska-march

Link


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
84. HurricaneFan
2:52 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Quoting 79. CaribBoy:



And it's boring :(

Shows most of the Atlantic as dry at peak time...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
83. Dakster
2:52 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Meanwhile Alaska broke a heat record. 71f in the state... in march....

http://www.adn.com/article/20160331/temperature-j ust-hit-71-degrees-alaska-march

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
80. JRRP7
2:38 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Quoting 79. CaribBoy:



And it's boring :(

lol...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
79. CaribBoy
2:31 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Quoting 72. JRRP7:


CanSIPS updated


And it's boring :(
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
78. Mediarologist
2:30 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Quoting 77. BaltimoreBrian:

Engraved illustration depicting wind directions, 1598. Click illustration to expand.


Guess someone had a lot of time on their hands.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
77. BaltimoreBrian
2:18 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Engraved illustration depicting wind directions, 1598. Click illustration to expand.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
72. JRRP7
1:55 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Quoting 67. Gearsts:

Is getting better but the CFS still has the Atlantic La nina and that cold water on the (CFS) spreads west. Euro doesn't show that massive cold pool.

CanSIPS updated
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
71. pureet1948
1:54 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Quoting 66. HurricaneFan:

CFS continues to show a warmer North Atlantic but a cooler tropical Atlantic...



Is that good or bad?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
70. BaltimoreBrian
1:54 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
100-Year-Old Frost Maps Show How Climate Change Has Shifted the Growing Season in the United States Click maps to expand.



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
69. RobertWC
1:46 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
There's yer problem -

Link

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
68. RobertWC
1:43 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Debate over water rights intensifies as Saudis buy up swaths of US farmland

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
67. Gearsts
1:40 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Quoting 66. HurricaneFan:

CFS continues to show a warmer North Atlantic but a cooler tropical Atlantic...

Is getting better but the CFS still has the Atlantic La nina and that cold water on the (CFS) spreads west. Euro doesn't show that massive cold pool.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
66. HurricaneFan
1:37 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
CFS continues to show a warmer North Atlantic but a cooler tropical Atlantic...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
65. Gearsts
1:35 AM GMT on April 01, 2016

VS Not Fix CFS
Strong trade winds

More shear over the MDR
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
64. RobertWC
1:26 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Here's two headlines from BB-

US faces floods of climate refugees

Debate over water rights intensifies as Saudis buy up swaths of US farmland


The "climate change scam " continues
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
63. Kenfa03
1:13 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Quoting 45. VibrantPlanet:


God has a bumper sticker on the back of his car that reads "Stop creating me in your own image!"

If you want to know what god or heaven looks like, just look around. Our planet is our heaven, or our hell. It's up to us. It's time to accept our responsibility as conscious co-creators, instead of offloading it to some white guy in space with a beard or the promise of a perfect afterlife.
Amen
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
62. pureet1948
1:03 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Quoting 59. justmehouston:

@pureet

"Any chance these "isolated thunderstorms" could be strong or severe even though SE Texas is not in SPC's risk area? Is it likely that the western plains trough and GOM moisture will actually "beef up" these weak disturbances? If so, does that account for NWS 60% rain chance for the area?"

I doubt that we will get anything severe here. Probably a bit more than we have seen in the last couple of days which hasnt amounted to much. We had 40% chance earlier today ...and yes, some drops came down ...but not even enough to measure. It would be really nice if we could get a proper thunderstorm ..not holding out on that to happen though.


Well, as I posted, they're including thunder due to the NAM soundings. Does the NAM see any strengthening of the disturbances due to the western plains trough? Why go by the NAM, anyway? GFS doesn't think this front's going to be any big deal.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
60. washingtonian115
12:53 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Okay WU just did something really weird o_0.It wouldn't allow me to sign in for a complete hour and a half.First it would have only my WU mail showing on the options list regarding my account but that was it.My username was M.I.A and it wouldn't allow access to my blog which was also M.I.A.It signed me out and then said something about user validation.Some weird bugs on this site for sure.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
59. justmehouston
12:45 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
@pureet

"Any chance these "isolated thunderstorms" could be strong or severe even though SE Texas is not in SPC's risk area? Is it likely that the western plains trough and GOM moisture will actually "beef up" these weak disturbances? If so, does that account for NWS 60% rain chance for the area?"

I doubt that we will get anything severe here. Probably a bit more than we have seen in the last couple of days which hasnt amounted to much. We had 40% chance earlier today ...and yes, some drops came down ...but not even enough to measure. It would be really nice if we could get a proper thunderstorm ..not holding out on that to happen though.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
58. Xyrus2000
12:35 AM GMT on April 01, 2016
Quoting 24. islander101010:

been here over 30 ys now. no sign of it locally. still waiting for the water to rise e cen fl.


Guess you haven't examined tidal gauge data from around the area then. Or any of the papers that have used said tidal data in their research.

Google isn't that hard to use.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather