Fire and Ice on the Plains: Intense Snow, Raging Blazes

By: Bob Henson , 3:09 PM GMT on March 24, 2016

A tightly wrapped storm system produced a wild array of weather-related impacts over the Great Plains and Midwest on Wednesday, including paralyzing snowfall, severe thunderstorms, and a massive prairie fire. The most widespread problems occurred with late-season snowfall that stretched along a frontal zone from the Colorado Rockies northeast more than 1,000 miles to Michigan. Dubbed Winter Storm Selene by the Weather Channel, the heavy snow and high winds knocked out power to thousands of residents. Snow totals of a foot or more were reported in Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Wyoming, according to TWC, with 31.6” falling near the mountain town of Pinecliff, CO.


Figure 1. A lone pedestrian trudges along the westbound lanes of Speer Boulevard in downtown Denver as a spring storm packing high winds and wet, heavy snow blankets the city early Wednesday, March 23, 2016. Image credit: AP Photo/David Zalubowski.


Figure 2. An unidentified exotic creature took shape on the railing of my deck at the height of the snowstorm on Wednesday, March 23, 2016. Image credit: Bob Henson.

Snowstruck: A first-hand report
One of the hardest-hit areas was my own neck of the woods, the Denver-Boulder area. As late as Monday night, most computer forecast models had been distinctly lukewarm about the chance of major snow in the populous Front Range corridor, adjoining the Rockies. The classic scenario for big snow here is for an upper-level storm to move slowly from the Four Corners region across southern Colorado, forcing strong, deep upslope flow against the Front Range mountains. Models were on target in projecting that Wednesday’s storm would crank up just east of the Front Range, a setup that often produces blizzard conditions east of the Denver area. As it happened, the storm intensified just close enough to the Front Range to push blizzard conditions into much of the urban corridor, along with extremely heavy snowfall rates that peaked as high as 4”/hour. High-resolution short-range models fell into agreement on this trend Tuesday evening, just a few hours before the storm hit full force.

Roads and yards were still wet at my place in Louisville (just east of Boulder) when the snow began around 2 AM Wednesday. By 9 AM, there was almost a foot of snow on the ground. By the time the storm was wrapping up, around 1 PM, I measured a phenomenal 21” accumulation—all of it having fallen in just 10 hours! Similar readings between 20” and 25” were observed in a swath from just east of Boulder across the north and east Denver suburbs, as well as in many of the often-hard-hit foothills locations to our west. Interstates were closed throughout the region for hours, as was Denver International Airport.

El Niño gives big snow a boost in northeast Colorado
The odds of a big winter storm go up considerably in the Boulder area during El Niño events. An informal study by Boulder cooperative observer Matt Kelsch (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) found that, since 1950, nearly half of the Boulder snowstorms measuring at least 15” occurred during El Niño. Less than 20% happened during La Niña.


Figure 3. A old train trestle bridge burns near Lake City, KS, on Wednesday, March 23, 2016. The bridge was set afire by a large grass fire burning in Barber County, KS. Lake City is about 15 miles northwest of Medicine Lodge, where at least two homes were destroyed by fire. Image credit: Travis Morisse/The Hutchinson News via AP.


Figure 4. The hourly Air Quality Index briefly reached the “unhealthy for sensitive groups” level (orange) across part of south-central Kansas at 8:00 pm CDT Wednesday, March 23, 2016, as particulate matter from a massive grass fire blew into the area. Image credit: AirNow.gov, data courtesy of Kansas Department of Health and Environment.


Fierce fire spreads from Oklahoma to Kansas
To the south of the big snow, warm, bone-dry air and powerful southwest winds gusting above 60 mph kicked off a number of grass fires, including one gargantuan fire that crossed the Oklahoma-Kansas border. In less than 48 hours, this fire tore across a swath estimated by the Oklahoma Forestry Service as spanning an immense 400,000 acres (625 square miles). The fire sent a pall of smoke over much of southern Kansas, including the Wichita area (see Figure 4). At least two homes were destroyed in Medicine Lodge, KS, and the town of 2000 residents was under a voluntary evacuation. With the fire still out of control late Wednesday, Kansas governor Sam Brownback declared a state of disaster. Hundreds of firefighters were reportedly working on Thursday morning along a 30- to 40-mile-long fire line. The fire’s cause is under investigation. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) had warned of extreme fire risk from southeast New Mexico to eastern Kansas on Wednesday. A WU station at Medicine Lodge reported wind gusts of 51 mph on Wednesday afternoon as the relative humidity dipped below 10%.


Figure 5. VIIRS view of the state of Kansas (outlined) at 1946Z (2:46 pm CDT) on Wednesday, March 23, 2016. Thick cloudiness in northwest Kansas is associated with heavy snow, while the streaks of smoke at center are being produced by major grass fires near the KS/OK border. Image credit: USDA Forest Service/Remote Sensing Applications Center.


Figure 6. A MODIS view of the western two-thirds of Kansas at 1948Z (2:48 pm CDT) on Wednesday, March 23, 2016. False color is used to highlight areas of cold cloud tops (top left) and wildfire (bottom center). Image credit: USDA Forest Service/Remote Sensing Applications Center.

Severe weather possible across South on Thursday
A line of severe thunderstorms erupted Wednesday evening ahead of a dry line, with some of the most intense storms extending roughly from Tulsa, OK, to Dallas-Fort Worth, TX. No tornadoes were reported, and there were only a few reports of thunderstorm-related high wind, but large hail up to golf-ball size was widespread. (Update: Storm surveys on Thursday confirmed three tornadoes from Wednesday, one each in Arkansas, Texas, and Missouri.) Another round of severe storms is possible on Thursday from central Kentucky and Tennessee into parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, where NOAA/SPC outlined a slight risk of severe weather in its initial Day 1 outlook for Thursday. Wind damage is a particular concern with any squall lines or line segments that emerge. Instability could be somewhat higher across the mid-South late this weekend as another upper-level storm approaches the region. SPC’s long-range convective outlook is calling for a potential risk of severe weather on Sunday, centered on western Kentucky and Tennessee.

We’ll be back with our next post on Friday.

Bob Henson



вlízzαrd αrrívєѕ (mssteffrae)
єdgєwαtєr cσ hαѕ hєαvч ѕnσw mσvíng thrσugh nσw.
вlízzαrd αrrívєѕ
Smoke covered sun (JMN4)
Fire! As I'm posting this the smoke is so bad can't tell where in the sky the sun is. Anyway, here you see the smoke covered sun in the background.
Smoke covered sun
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The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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249. vis0
5:06 PM GMT on March 25, 2016

Quoting 216. NativeSun:

From what little I know of him, he does state on WB, that this is only a temporary cycle of a warming climate, that when the AMO, PDO, turn cold, and the ENSO state turns more toward Nina conditions the planet temps will return to more normal temps. He also says this is the time for the global warming group to enjoy it while it last. According to his theory, this will happen in the next 30 yrs. or so. I for one don't believe man is the sole cause of climate change, and we need to spend all the time and money we are spending on CO2 research, on trying to eliminate air and water pollution, along with finding a way to get population control in check. Their are way to many people in a lot of the 3rd world countries that can't afford one child, much less 3 or 4. Until we fix these 3 problems, their will be no way to control what effect CO2 will have on this planet. Their is a cure for Air, Water and Over Population, and we can actually do something about it, but it will affect the profits of a lot of large and small corporations, and the economy of a lot of countries.
ah i see Mr. JB has changed the wording from a few years ago.  "will return to more normal temps." 
It use to be a few years ago (i even was following JB till 2011...not believing all JB stated but paying attention) that Mr. JB would say
"~will return to normal temps
~"
now its
"to more normal"

a bit of high quality grammar that really means "nearer".


Again sure they'll be some cooling, its part of even the ebb & flow BUT when in THESE LAST DECADES as to the warming, LOOK CLOSELY the cooling is not true cooling as in the planet is cooler as a whole or cooler as in cooler than it was 20+ years ago, its cooling as in the pot of water was boiling LITERALLY 15 seconds ago and now that i've turned off the stove 15 seconds ago that boiling water is "cooler" so let me stick my (DO NOT TRY THIS DAKSTER)  pinky in there ...ARE YA NUTS!!!!!!!!

...yes i am nuts, but still know enough that if something is cooler i think COOLER THAN what?;

the sun as opposed to the bucket of smelted iron?

the lighting flash versus the butane torch?


When Mr JB says, return MORE to normal Mr. JB is admitting that there is no such thing in the past several years by changing the wording.

 

(to him its several years, to science its more like decades)

 

If JB used "Normal" when comparing this warming to the warming weather of our great grandparents Mr. JB would be even more incorrect and would have to change not only the words but invent a new language, watch Mr. JB will formulate a "new" formulas and say it showing the Planet is cooling.

 

If you take today's temperature Ωx* (where * is my skeptic$' imagination) and reselect the satellites µ-nometer to only look for ONLY LAYERS of cooler air you'll find that the planet is actually leaning more towards becoming cooler for the period that skeptic$ can Θ (Θ, representing milk)  the companies that can afford their salaries. Then it'll be comparing a cooler planet that goes to extreme heat and cold and say see look the moon has a colder and hotter side and that's is what Earth is going through just at a longer time as its controlled by the sun cycles(pssst don't tell Mr. JB the moon is not a planet)


sure
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
248. MahFL
5:04 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 230. Xyrus2000:



...Not being concerned by this is sort of like not being concerned about a fire in your house because it's down in your basement.


I did not mean to infer that I was unconcerned.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
247. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:28 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
246. civEngineer
4:27 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 239. Patrap:



Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices.
In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.




Great opine, and exactly why we need to embrace the truest form of green energy, nuclear power, if you beleive that we are in as dire straights as you espouse.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/nuclear -power-is-the-greenest-option-say-top-scientists-9 955997.html
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
245. Patrap
4:25 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Joe Bastardi works at weatherbell.com.

Weatherbell Analytics
www.weatherbell.com


He left accuweather some years ago.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
244. LuckySD
4:24 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 236. TheBigBanana:

Here you go LuckySD. Take the 's' out of https when you put in the image address.

Thank you! Never had that happen before so I was very confused lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
243. Patrap
4:24 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Take time to Remember those who have received the Nations Highest Military Honor
March 25th National Medal of Honor Day 2016

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
242. hydrus
4:22 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Current rate of carbon release is ten times higher than at any time in the past 66 million years
March 24, 2016....From AccuWeather...Where JB worked for decades.

New research recently published in the journal Nature Geoscience looked at changes in Earth's temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide CO2 since the end of the age of the dinosaurs and found that the current rate of human-induced carbon release is unprecedented in the past 66 million years.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
241. Patrap
4:19 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI  
415 AM HST FRI MAR 25 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
THE ISLAND OF KAUAI IN KAUAI COUNTY  
 
* UNTIL 715 AM HST  
 
* AT 413 AM HST...RADAR AND RAIN GAGES INDICATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO PERSIST OVER THE ENTIRE ISLAND. THESE  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVER THE ISLAND AND  
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. THE HANALEI BRIDGE  
REMAINS CLOSED. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL  
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  
 
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...  
ALL OF THE ISLAND OF KAUAI.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN  
STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.  
 
DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.  
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.  
 
 
 
THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 715 AM HST IF HEAVY RAIN  
PERSISTS.  
 
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
240. Patrap
4:04 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
What any single Human believes as to AGW is moot as it matters not one iota.

Science is above the din of Human beliefs,..always has, and it always will.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
239. Patrap
4:02 PM GMT on March 25, 2016


Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices.
In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
238. Climate175
4:01 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
This certainly seems like it could be a hot-spot this Hurricane Season.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
237. Patrap
3:59 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 225. cRRKampen:


It's all caused by man. All 110 to 120% of it. All.

Because naturally it would have cooled one or two tenths, see.


Some folks, if they don't wanna know, you can't tell them.

How do we know humans are the primary cause of the warming ?

A large body of evidence supports the conclusion that human activity is the primary driver of recent warming. This evidence has accumulated over several decades, and from hundreds of studies. The first line of evidence is our basic physical understanding of how greenhouse gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in greenhouse gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate. The second line of evidence is from indirect estimates of climate changes over the last 1,000 to 2,000 years. These estimates are often obtained from living things and their remains (like tree rings and corals) which provide a natural archive of climate variations. These indicators show that the recent temperature rise is clearly unusual in at least the last 1,000 years. The third line of evidence is based on comparisons of actual climate with computer models of how we expect climate to behave under certain human influences.

For example, when climate models are run with historical increases in greenhouse gases, they show gradual warming of the Earth and ocean surface, increases in ocean heat content, a rise in global sea level, and general retreat of sea ice and snow cover.

These and other aspects of modeled climate change are in agreement with observations.



Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
236. TheBigBanana
3:52 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Here you go LuckySD. Take the 's' out of https when you put in the image address.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
235. LuckySD
3:34 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
About to get very wet in Tampa.



*edit* Hmm, tried posting the radar map but every time I do, it just gets deleted from my post.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
234. NativeSun
2:56 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 228. frank727:



If you knew near term extinction for all life is inevitable on a time frame of 10 years what would you do. If you knew that there is a remote chance to save some life if drastic measures were taken immediately, what do you think will happen. I look at my grandchildren and all innocent life that will end because of mankind and the greed for ones self. I can't hide from reality and think that the ones in charge are there to protect me. I always believe in hope but all our time is rapidly approaching.
If this is truly the way you feel, you should start a doomsday prepper's show, and show everyone one you can, how to survive this calamity.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
233. Xyrus2000
2:47 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 206. NativeSun:
What is the matter with JB's statement? If you understand what he is saying it makes perfect sense.


Oh, he makes perfect sense to anyone who doesn't understand the fundamental principles of thermodynamics. To anyone else with even a modicum of physics knowledge, he sounds like a complete moron.

I don't know how many times this needs to be explained to you. Conservation of energy. Ocean currents don't magically make heat disappear. The THERMAL EXPANSION of the oceans should be evidence enough to indicate that the extra heat isn't vanishing. It's just being moved around. And when the the cycle switches again, that extra heat will come back to the surface. Until conditions arise that allow the oceans to emit more energy than they receive, the oceans will continue to warm (and globe along with them).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
232. georgevandenberghe
2:40 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 230. Xyrus2000:



The frequency and intensity of droughts have been on a long term increasing trend. Globally. A global change in long term trends and intensities requires a global change in climate, regardless of whether man is causing it or not.

Not being concerned by this is sort of like not being concerned about a fire in your house because it's down in your basement.


Naah. Fires have always happened. Why worry???
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
231. hydrus
2:39 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 228. frank727:



If you knew near term extinction for all life is inevitable on a time frame of 10 years what would you do. If you knew that there is a remote chance to save some life if drastic measures were taken immediately, what do you think will happen. I look at my grandchildren and all innocent life that will end because of mankind and the greed for ones self. I can't hide from reality and think that the ones in charge are there to protect me. I always believe in hope but all our time is rapidly approaching.
I feel the same way, but 10 years is extreme. If the end is right at the door, there is nothing we can do to stop it. Best thing in my opinion is to step in the right direction as a race of people that wants to live and enjoy what Earth and the Universe has to offer us. We are not powerless, but we are now subject to what we have done. Sad thing is as you say, the innocent are going to end up suffering from this more than the folks responsible. Many people have already taken measures to lower carbon footprint and recycle. Water conservation will likely be managed better around the world because they will be forced by necessity to do so.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
230. Xyrus2000
2:31 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 195. MahFL:



Droughts are not necessarily caused by climate change, they have always occurred.


The frequency and intensity of droughts have been on a long term increasing trend. Globally. A global change in long term trends and intensities requires a global change in climate, regardless of whether man is causing it or not.

Not being concerned by this is sort of like not being concerned about a fire in your house because it's down in your basement.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
229. Grothar
2:24 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 223. Tazmanian:



bonnie is that you?


No, It's me, Grothar.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
228. frank727
2:22 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 191. hydrus:

No one really knows, but conditions around the world are changing rapidly. Population is increasing, food , water, and resources are being used in a non efficient manner.


If you knew near term extinction for all life is inevitable on a time frame of 10 years what would you do. If you knew that there is a remote chance to save some life if drastic measures were taken immediately, what do you think will happen. I look at my grandchildren and all innocent life that will end because of mankind and the greed for ones self. I can't hide from reality and think that the ones in charge are there to protect me. I always believe in hope but all our time is rapidly approaching.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
227. hydrus
2:10 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 224. HurricaneFan:


I'm still thinking 2016 will be an active season in the Atlantic, because the equatorial Atlantic remains very warm. Most forecasts called for 5-7 storms in 2015, but we got nearly twice that because of the MDR warming in August/September. This "Cold AMO" stuff is likely all caused by a busted model initialization.

Although the North Atlantic is still below average in SSTs, it didn't play much of an inhibiting factor in the 2015 season that I know of. It is also expected to warm up a bit from last year. If the MDR is as warm as it was last year, and the El Nino dissipates by June, we will likely get a season with about 14-16 storms 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 major hurricanes.
Very reasonable prediction..If there are no extra large SAL outbreaks, it will be an active year. To early to determine possible path patterns...2004 comes to mind.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
226. HurricaneFan
2:09 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
The CFS is all messed up now. It shows a weak La Nina briefly forming in June/July, before eventually it dissipates in October and Strong El Nino returns. Not to mention the Atlantic La Nina error.

July 2016


December 2016

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cf s-mon/2016032418/cfs-mon_01_ssta_global_9.png

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
225. cRRKampen
2:08 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 210. Sfloridacat5:



No one believes "it's all caused by man." Everyone knows some of the warming is naturally caused. I don't know where people get that statement from.

It's all caused by man. All 110 to 120% of it. All.

Because naturally it would have cooled one or two tenths, see.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
224. HurricaneFan
2:04 PM GMT on March 25, 2016

I'm still thinking 2016 will be an active season in the Atlantic, because the equatorial Atlantic remains very warm. Most forecasts called for 5-7 storms in 2015, but we got nearly twice that because of the MDR warming in August/September. This "Cold AMO" stuff is likely all caused by a busted model initialization.

Although the North Atlantic is still below average in SSTs, it didn't play much of an inhibiting factor in the 2015 season that I know of. It is also expected to warm up a bit from last year. If the MDR is as warm as it was last year, and the El Nino dissipates by June, we will likely get a season with about 14-16 storms 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 major hurricanes.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
223. Tazmanian
2:02 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 219. Grothar:




bonnie is that you?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
222. Neapolitan
1:54 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 216. NativeSun:

From what little I know of him, he does state on WB, that this is only a temporary cycle of a warming climate, that when the AMO, PDO, turn cold, and the ENSO state turns more toward Nina conditions the planet temps will return to more normal temps. He also says this is the time for the global warming group to enjoy it while it last. According to his theory, this will happen in the next 30 yrs. or so
Oh, poor little Joe. Several times a year he climbs upon his soapbox and proclaims, in an increasingly shrill voice, that the planet is about to turn cooler any day now, just you wait. The problem, and what he knows people like you will fail to remember, is that he's been making the very same prediction for the last decade or longer, and the atmosphere has so far entirely refused to adhere to his, er, "theory". You'd think a guy who attended Penn State would have learned, for instance, that cycles such as the AMO, the PDO, and ENSO don't create heat, but rather move around heat that's already in the system. But then, a self-proclaimed "atmospheric expert" who doesn't quite grasp the fundamentals of chemistry and fluid dynamics (see: "CO2...doesn't mix well with the atmosphere ") should never be expected to utter anything of import on the subject anyway. So there's that...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
221. Naga5000
1:44 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 220. hydrus:

Good morning N.S. J.B. is popular, and part of the reason is his stance on global warming. He gets as much attention from his anti AGW rants as he does with his forecasts. His popularity goes, so does his job. He does get forecasts correct and he should with decades of experience, but the truth is already apparent, and it will not matter what anyone speaks on the subject. The Earth is warming at a alarming rate, and humans are causing part of it. Time to cut whatever fossil fuels we can out of the energy grid, and plan for the future with cleaner alternatives. I have said here many times before that the U.S. should keep drilling until the economy improves.


He panders to AGW deniers as a money making scheme. He is a grifter.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
220. hydrus
1:42 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 216. NativeSun:

From what little I know of him, he does state on WB, that this is only a temporary cycle of a warming climate, that when the AMO, PDO, turn cold, and the ENSO state turns more toward Nina conditions the planet temps will return to more normal temps. He also says this is the time for the global warming group to enjoy it while it last. According to his theory, this will happen in the next 30 yrs. or so. I for one don't believe man is the sole cause of climate change, and we need to spend all the time and money we are spending on CO2 research, on trying to eliminate air and water pollution, along with finding a way to get population control in check. Their are way to many people in a lot of the 3rd world countries that can't afford one child, much less 3 or 4. Until we fix these 3 problems, their will be no way to control what effect CO2 will have on this planet. Their is a cure for Air, Water and Over Population, and we can actually do something about it, but it will affect the profits of a lot of large and small corporations, and the economy of a lot of countries.
Good morning N.S. J.B. is popular, and part of the reason is his stance on global warming. He gets as much attention from his anti AGW rants as he does with his forecasts. His popularity goes, so does his job. He does get forecasts correct and he should with decades of experience, but the truth is already apparent, and it will not matter what anyone speaks on the subject. The Earth is warming at a alarming rate, and humans are causing part of it. Time to cut whatever fossil fuels we can out of the energy grid, and plan for the future with cleaner alternatives. I have said here many times before that the U.S. should keep drilling until the economy improves.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
219. Grothar
1:36 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
218. Naga5000
1:36 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 216. NativeSun:

From what little I know of him, he does state on WB, that this is only a temporary cycle of a warming climate, that when the AMO, PDO, turn cold, and the ENSO state turns more toward Nina conditions the planet temps will return to more normal temps. He also says this is the time for the global warming group to enjoy it while it last. According to his theory, this will happen in the next 30 yrs. or so. I for one don't believe man is the sole cause of climate change, and we need to spend all the time and money we are spending on CO2 research, on trying to eliminate air and water pollution, along with finding a way to get population control in check. Their are way to many people in a lot of the 3rd world countries that can't afford one child, much less 3 or 4. Until we fix these 3 problems, their will be no way to control what effect CO2 will have on this planet. Their is a cure for Air, Water and Over Population, and we can actually do something about it, but it will affect the profits of a lot of large and small corporations, and the economy of a lot of countries.


Again, I implore both you and Joe to read the science. I know there is a lot of it, but it does cover this bout of nonsensical claims. This is exactly why the term "denier" is used. You refuse to acknowledge any science that addresses those issues.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
217. georgevandenberghe
1:28 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 206. NativeSun:

What is the matter with JB's statement? If you understand what he is saying it makes perfect sense.


He's generally correct on the cyclicity but wrong on magnitudes. We are in a warming burst right now with El Nino.. La Nina will reverse that short term. We are in a few decades long period of more rapid warming because of positive PDO which has significant two decade periodicity. When the PDO turns negative warming rates will be reduced.

He's wrong that a PDO reversal will induce cooling. Those decades are gone, the last such were the early 50s to the mid 70s. The last negative PDO resulted in SLOW warming from the mid 90s to the early teens. The next negative PDO will be accompanied by warming faster than the last cool PDO period but slower than the next ten years or so.

Much will be made of the cooling in 2017 from reversal of El Nino. That will only last a few years before baseline warming counters it. The slower warming in the 2030s remains to be remarked on.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
216. NativeSun
1:19 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 209. Sfloridacat5:

http://i403.photobucket.com/albums/pp114/SGOS/WUNI D S_map%205_zpsykvnkstx.gif

When all is said and done, JB will look like a fool. He will some how pretend like he always supported AGW, but we will all know better. I don't know if he is just seeking attention or if he really believes what he says.
From what little I know of him, he does state on WB, that this is only a temporary cycle of a warming climate, that when the AMO, PDO, turn cold, and the ENSO state turns more toward Nina conditions the planet temps will return to more normal temps. He also says this is the time for the global warming group to enjoy it while it last. According to his theory, this will happen in the next 30 yrs. or so. I for one don't believe man is the sole cause of climate change, and we need to spend all the time and money we are spending on CO2 research, on trying to eliminate air and water pollution, along with finding a way to get population control in check. Their are way to many people in a lot of the 3rd world countries that can't afford one child, much less 3 or 4. Until we fix these 3 problems, their will be no way to control what effect CO2 will have on this planet. Their is a cure for Air, Water and Over Population, and we can actually do something about it, but it will affect the profits of a lot of large and small corporations, and the economy of a lot of countries.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
215. ariot
1:15 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 210. Sfloridacat5:



No one believes "it's all caused by man." Everyone knows some of the warming is naturally caused. I don't know where people get that statement from.


Actually, most of the available data and published work indicates to me that man's activity is the significant contributor to the observed warming that is outside what are the established climate norms. I don't believe anything, but I do think that without human activity, the climate of the 21st and 22nd centuries (on our version of the clock) would be significantly different.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
214. MahFL
1:12 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 201. StormTrackerScott:

Picked up 1.33" last Night. Orlando International received 3.61" which is more than what is normal for the whole month of March. Even some reports of 6" of rain down in Kissimmee.


We got 0.54in, and some blustery winds.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
213. wishingSCsnow
1:11 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
The creature on Mr. Henson's back patio is a Snow Nessie. We will have to track other sightings and make sure the legend continues. (Apologies if someone else already proposed this solution; I haven't read every word of every comment yet this morning.)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
212. StormTrackerScott
1:00 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 210. Sfloridacat5:



No one believes "it's all caused by man." Everyone knows some of the warming is naturally caused. I don't know where people get that statement from.


Stay safe buddy as those storms as the west coast of FL look nasty. We got clobbered across the Orlando area last night. I had some small had winds maybe 45 to 50mph but was enough to cause the power to go out. Some storm spotters south of Orlando recorded close to 6" last night.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
211. NativeSun
12:59 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 190. Kenfa03:

How long do we have?
Doom, I say, oh the horror. The big problem is too many people, mother nature will take care of it, as she does with every other species on the planet.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
210. Sfloridacat5
12:57 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 208. NativeSun:

I don't think that it's, that so many people deny climate change, it's the fact that so many people and scientist don't truly believe it's all caused by man.


No one believes "it's all caused by man." Everyone knows some of the warming is naturally caused. I don't know where people get that statement from.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
209. Sfloridacat5
12:55 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
http://i403.photobucket.com/albums/pp114/SGOS/WUNID S_map%205_zpsykvnkstx.gif
Quoting 206. NativeSun:

What is the matter with JB's statement? If you understand what he is saying it makes perfect sense.


When all is said and done, JB will look like a fool. He will some how pretend like he always supported AGW, but we will all know better. I don't know if he is just seeking attention or if he really believes what he says.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
208. NativeSun
12:49 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 125. Sfloridacat5:



Many people "deny" that AGW is a serious problem that threatens the extinction of many species on Earth.

Many people "refuse to accept" that AGW is a serious problem that threatens the extinction of many species on Earth.


I don't think that it's, that so many people deny climate change, it's the fact that so many people and scientist don't truly believe it's all caused by man.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
207. Sfloridacat5
12:48 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Moving into the Naples area.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
206. NativeSun
12:46 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 125. Sfloridacat5:



Many people "deny" that AGW is a serious problem that threatens the extinction of many species on Earth.

Many people "refuse to accept" that AGW is a serious problem that threatens the extinction of many species on Earth.


What is the matter with JB's statement? If you understand what he is saying it makes perfect sense.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
205. hydrus
12:29 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 199. RobertWC:



I'm sure that'll make the rice farmers in the Mekong delta feel much better as their fresh water supplies turn brackish.
Then famine, disease that spreads like the common cold, and no fresh water...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
204. cRRKampen
12:15 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 200. islander101010:

smart car owners? with the price of fuel and these smart cars getting older maybe the owners are not so smart afterall.

So modernize to 1960 cars with eight cilinders, eight liters leaded gasoline. Much smarter and it gets some money rolling and some votes for trump (is wat the Pb does).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
203. Sfloridacat5
12:10 PM GMT on March 25, 2016
I can hear the rumble of thunder off in the distance. I'm hoping this cell holds together.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
202. StormTrackerScott
11:56 AM GMT on March 25, 2016
With 3" to 6" last night in the Orlando area and looking @ the GFS I would say we are in for a lot of rain going forward.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
201. StormTrackerScott
11:47 AM GMT on March 25, 2016
Picked up 1.33" last Night. Orlando International received 3.61" which is more than what is normal for the whole month of March. Even some reports of 6" of rain down in Kissimmee.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
200. islander101010
11:46 AM GMT on March 25, 2016
smart car owners? with the price of fuel and these smart cars getting older maybe the owners are not so smart afterall.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
199. RobertWC
11:43 AM GMT on March 25, 2016
Quoting 195. MahFL:



Droughts are not necessarily caused by climate change, they have always occurred.


I'm sure that'll make the rice farmers in the Mekong delta feel much better as their fresh water supplies turn brackish.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather