Avoiding a Soylent Green Future by 2040; First Severe Outbreak of Spring Coming

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 12:51 PM GMT on March 23, 2016

If you want a sobering look at a potential global apocalyptic food shortage scenario, you don’t need to rent a copy of the 1973 sci-fi classic, “Soylent Green”. A non-sci-fi computer model being developed by the Global Sustainability Institute at the UK's Anglia Ruskin University predicts that catastrophic food shortages, triggered by a combination of climate change, water scarcity, energy crisis, and political instability might lead to a virtual collapse of industrial civilization by 2040. The model explores short-term scenarios of policy decisions by simulating social-economical-environmental systems, including the impact of climate-induced drought on crop failures and food prices. The model was successfully used to simulate the multiple factors--including the great Russian drought of 2010--that made the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings more likely. These uprisings caused major unrest in at least twelve nations, and forced rulers from power in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen. Dr. Aled Jones, director of the Global Sustainability Institute, said this in a June 2015 interview with Insurge Intelligence about their model:

"We ran the model forward to the year 2040, along a business-as-usual trajectory based on ‘do-nothing’ trends—that is, without any feedback loops that would change the underlying trend. The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots. In this scenario, global society essentially collapses as food production falls permanently short of consumption."


Figure 1. Food riot from the sci-fi classic, “Soylent Green”.


Figure 2. Tunisians carrying loaves of bread protest high food prices and confront riot police during a demonstration against the country's new government in Tunis on January 18, 2011. Riot police fired tear gas and dispersed the rally. Global food prices spiked in late 2010 and early 2011, leading to widespread unrest and the "Arab Spring" in northern Africa and the Middle East, toppling the governments of four nations. The high food prices were primarily due to Russia's great heat wave and drought in the summer of 2010, which decimated the Russian wheat crop. Image credit: MARTIN BUREAU/AFP/Getty Images.

The good news
The good news is this is a short-term model, and was not designed to run for a period of decades. With the world now committed to de-carbonize its economy as a result of the December 2015 Paris Accord, long-term changes to the global food system are in store, making a “Soylent Green” world less likely than the model might suggest (although there is no telling what the future holds for the trendy, lab-concocted Soylent beverage). According to an October 2015 report by the World Bank, Future of Food: Shaping A Climate-Smart Global Food System, a growing and diverse spectrum of practices called "Climate Smart Agriculture" are showing it is possible to simultaneously deliver higher agricultural productivity, greater climate resilience, and lower greenhouse gas emissions. Important among these are silvo-pastoral livestock systems (blending forests and pastures; "silva" is Latin for forest), agroforestry, intercropping, diversification of production systems toward less water- and emission-intensive crops, improved pasture management, better fertilizer use, minimum tillage, alternative wetting and drying of rice, biogas production from agricultural waste products/livestock manure, improved irrigation and drainage efficiency that includes lowering emissions by reducing energy consumption of pumping stations, and reducing food loss and waste. For example, Uruguay has quadrupled its agricultural production within a decade while significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions per unit of food production by using some of these techniques. Of course, making these changes will cost money, but the report notes that rates of return to public investment in agricultural research and extension have been very high, averaging at least 40 percent in recent decades. We really have no choice but to make massive changes and investments in the global food system if we want to avoid the fate of the many civilizations and nations that have collapsed because of drought.



Springtime's first severe weather episode is brewing
The nation's first multi-day round of severe weather since the spring equinox will take shape from late Wednesday into Thursday (see Figure 3). A seasonably strong upper-level trough will move across the south-central and southeastern states, pulling up modest amounts of Gulf moisture. The richest moisture has been scoured out of the Gulf by earlier fronts, so instability will be less than impressive, and wind shear in the lowest levels will also be on the weak side. Still, enough total vertical wind shear will be on hand to support a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from northeast Texas to western Illinois by Wednesday evening. Storms will redevelop across the South on Thursday, perhaps extending northward into the Ohio Valley. Damaging winds and hail are the main threat on both days, but a few tornadoes are possible.


Figure 3. Severe weather outlooks for Wednesday, March 23, 2016 (left) and Thursday, March 24 (right), issued by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center late Tuesday night.

As of Monday, March 21, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center had received 202 preliminary tornado reports for the year to date, slightly above the 11-year average (2005-2015) of 184 preliminary tornado reports for the period Jan 1 - Mar 21. Tornado activity and high-wind reports surged last month with the deadly mid-Atlantic outbreak of February 24. The main story in March has been hail--in particular, a destructive hailstorm that pounded the Fort Worth, TX, area on Thursday morning, March 17. The Insurance Council of Texas estimates that insured damages from this storm will top $600 million. That would make it one of the top-20 costliest weather disasters in Texas history. The heavy weather struck the Dallas-Fort Worth region just before and after sunrise, which is one of the least common times of day to get damaging hail in this region.

Jeff Masters (food shock); Bob Henson (severe weather)





The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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118. Patrap
10:39 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
I remember well watching this scene in the theater.

It was powerful

And sad too.





Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
117. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:37 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
116. 882MB
10:36 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Storms are just starting to get going in Texas and Oklahoma.



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
115. Grothar
10:17 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 94. washingtonian115:

I should fire the grill up this afternoon.Its very nice outside but unfortunately the steaks are frozen solid so we'll have to wait until Thursday.



"The secret is in the sauce"
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
114. Jedkins01
10:08 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 110. Skyepony:


Do you have a source other than Monsanto for that?

GMO mostly focused on making money on chemicals and not so much water efficacy. Much GMO was directed at crops being able to live through a spraying of Round-Up, which has greatly increased the use of Round Up across the world as these seeds are already being sold to any country that hasn't outlawed them. They have also caused a mutation in the Weed Kingdom known as Super Weeds that too have become immune to Round Up. Some GMO was also directed toward getting plants to produce or replicate human made pesticides so they wouldn't need to be applied, these are now being outlawed in Europe for killing the bees and preserving biodiversity. If the bees die, most of us will too.




Link

This is a good article from Penn State on the science of GMO's that looks at the issue from purely a science prospective. It clearly discusses that there are potential benefits, but also risks in regard to the use of stronger pesticides potentially being a health risk to humans, other plants, and other organisms, as well as the issue of weds becoming more resistant to the pesticides used.

Ultimately, I don't think banning GMO's is a wise idea, as the article even mentions, the EU itself conducted comprehensive research that found no harm in using them. However, having caution as to how they are used, when they are used, and why is wise. While GMO's are not found to be harmful, the issue of them being engineered specifically for handling stronger pesticides is cause for concern.

Though, GMO's can and are used in different ways as well, not just for the purpose of handling new and more powerful pesticides.

A note from the final paragraph is a great final word in regard to handling GMO's, and any science issue:

"When the Pew Research Center published its survey results about the beliefs of the public versus scientists, Alan Leschner, CEO of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, told the Associated Press that “science is about facts; science is not about values.” He meant that science is a powerful tool that can lead us to understanding, but it can only take us so far. Only we, as thoughtful, ethical beings, can decide what science to do and what to do with the results of science. With GMOs, as with many technologies, science allows us to evaluate the risks and benefits."
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
113. OKsky
9:50 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 110. Skyepony:


Do you have a source other than Monsanto for that?

GMO mostly focused on making money on chemicals and not so much water efficacy. Much GMO was directed at crops being able to live through a spraying of Round-Up, which has greatly increased the use of Round Up across the world as these seeds are already being sold to any country that hasn't outlawed them. They have also caused a mutation in the Weed Kingdom known as Super Weeds that too have become immune to Round Up. Some GMO was also directed toward getting plants to produce or replicate human made pesticides so they wouldn't need to be applied, these are now being outlawed in Europe for killing the bees and preserving biodiversity. If the bees die, most of us will too.




Here is one

"This study examines the extent to which adopting herbicide-tolerant (HT) soybeans affects conservation tillage practices and herbicide use. The model is estimated using a state-level panel dataset extending across 12 major soybean-producing states from 1996 to 2006. The results of our analysis suggest that HT adoption induces farmers to adopt conservation tillage practices. Our results also show that HT adoption leads to a decrease in quality-adjusted herbicide use."

The gmo controversy seems to only exist within the realm of journalism and not so much in published science.... its almost the left's version of climate change denial.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
112. vis0
9:42 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
CREDIT:: NOAA, University of Washington (Final product NOT an official product of either, do not use coulorkey as if 100% correct)
D&T:: 201603231500u_232030_COnUS+s
SAT imgry:: Blend of 3 Satellite Imagery.


WYS 628x428 or @Youtube via https://youtu.be/htmnuzxGxIE (org 922x605)

unrelated to Wx NOTE:: oops corrected an incorrect dimension in the embed code (odds are i had it in that incorrect manner for the last 6 VIDs...i think even posted it on a BBrian blogbyte embed example comment (didn't want to go edit it as it will become worse). Make sure both pairs of dimension entries match. i had 628x428 then 628x488 corrected the 488 to 428.)

Check NOAA radios have them ON.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
111. Jedkins01
9:36 PM GMT on March 23, 2016


Guidance has been trending wetter in North and Central Florida where rainfall deficits are highest, which is good news. We are half of average for the month, and about 5 inches below average YTD.

After this bout of late season cold, dry weather is now ending, I'm happy to see spring returning with warmth and rainfall.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
110. Skyepony (Mod)
9:30 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 92. Greg01:


On the contrary - the advantage of GMO crops is that they have been modified incrementally to require less fertilizer, less water, (drought resistant) less pesticides, etc. etc. A lot of research has been done in this area and efficiencies are still being realized. These gains have been largely realized in the U.S. There's no reason why these gains can't be replicated elsewhere.

Do you have a source other than Monsanto for that?

GMO mostly focused on making money on chemicals and not so much water efficacy. Much GMO was directed at crops being able to live through a spraying of Round-Up, which has greatly increased the use of Round Up across the world as these seeds are already being sold to any country that hasn't outlawed them. They have also caused a mutation in the Weed Kingdom known as Super Weeds that too have become immune to Round Up. Some GMO was also directed toward getting plants to produce or replicate human made pesticides so they wouldn't need to be applied, these are now being outlawed in Europe for killing the bees and preserving biodiversity. If the bees die, most of us will too.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
109. Loduck
9:26 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
I'm glad to finally see the issue of over population being addressed....After reading so many post here regarding aGW, our use and misuse of earth's valuable resources, and how we are basically destroying the planet the discussion of over population should rank as oh, I don't know, the first or second most important topic? I'm just going to say what no one wants to say or feels that it would be inappropriate to say. Stop over populating. Many of the problems we are facing or will face in the not to distant future are self-inflicted. I don't know what the answer to this dilemma is but, if this very delicate topic is not addressed I am afraid that the earth and humankind are in deep ****.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
107. georgevandenberghe
8:58 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 94. washingtonian115:

I should fire the grill up this afternoon.Its very nice outside but unfortunately the steaks are frozen solid so we'll have to wait until Thursday.




I thaw frozen meat and fish in a half hour by putting it in lukewarm water in plastic bags. I prefer to cook fish
from this initial state because it takes less time to cook and cooks more evenly when it starts out warm in the center. My cooking goal with 1" thick Mahi fillets is rock hard to on the plate in 45 minutes.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
106. wunderkidcayman
8:53 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Hey Jeff and Bob looking forwards to that blog on the ENSO very soon
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
105. weathermanwannabe
8:42 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Everyone have a safe weather evening and see Yall in the am:

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
103. Neapolitan
8:22 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 95. SLU:

Ryan Maue added,




Andrew Freedman @afreedma

Climate change poses a risk to Donald Trump's properties, but he denies it exists

_________________________________________________ ________

Ryan Maue %u200F@RyanMaue 5h5 hours ago

Warren Buffet isn't a "big believer" in climate risk to his portfolio either.

That's a cute piece of equivalence, but someone may wish to remind Maue that there's a bit of a difference between Buffet and Trump: the former is an investor, while the latter is seeking the most powerful office on the planet.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
102. weathermanwannabe
8:20 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
101. hurricanehunter27
8:15 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Vance Air Force Base radar is showing some incredible smoke from the wildfires. Currently under Critical fire conditions here in Norman, hope nothing like what's going on in KS happens in the OKC area.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
100. weathermanwannabe
8:12 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
There's a "Whole Lotta SAL" off of Africa getting caught up in the flow of Gaby as noted by Barbamz below: 




Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
99. Sfloridacat5
8:10 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Current global food production trajectory won't meet 2050 needs
Link
Link to the published article.
Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
98. barbamz
8:00 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Hi folks. As I don't have much time currently, here just a short dusty hello as the Sahara is reaching out for southern Europe thanks to powerful low "Gaby" in the Mediterranean:


This morning in Greek Corfu/Ionian Sea/Mediterranean. Photo from Giannis Gasteratos at Severe Weather Greece.

Many more pics and videos from Italy and Greece at Severe Weather Europe and Meteo Europe.


Southern Italy in the dust.


Outbreak of SAL to the north. Source.


Stormy and dusty low "Gaby" over central and eastern Mediterranean. And the surface map for tomorrow here. You see, high "Joachim" which has been hovering over western Europe already for weeks (causing quite chilly and dry weather for me in Germany), is still around but now moving towards Spain.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
97. Patrap
7:55 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Best part of the wet late Winter and early Spring here..

Huge and cheap crawfish to burl' !

Saltines still win over Soylent green, or yellow for that matter.




Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
96. Gearsts
7:53 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
95. SLU
7:43 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Ryan Maue added,




Andrew Freedman @afreedma

Climate change poses a risk to Donald Trump's properties, but he denies it exists

_________________________________________________ ________

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 5h5 hours ago

Warren Buffet isn't a "big believer" in climate risk to his portfolio either.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
94. washingtonian115
7:41 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
I should fire the grill up this afternoon.Its very nice outside but unfortunately the steaks are frozen solid so we'll have to wait until Thursday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
93. NttyGrtty
7:26 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 78. Xulonn:
I am muy tranquilo - blood pressure is down and I'm enjoying the day.

However, I often take the opportunity to joust with denialists - who have nothing but b.s. and blather to support their positions and statements. It is simply fun and games for me. Probably similar to the challenge and fun of a hurricane buff guessing how many storms there will be in a season.

There are many lists of AGW/CC denier tactics, and I used two of the prominent ones, but made up "ranking" numbers.

Skeptical Science, in it's "Making Sense of Climate Science Denial" MOOC, listed and defined five tactics used by denialists. Based on the information in that course, John Cook and Margaret Crane just put up a great new post at Skeptical Science today titled How to inoculate people against Donald Trump's fact bending claims.

The posts tells how a careful analysis by Politifact found that 78% of Trump’s statements were "Mostly False," "False," or “Pants on Fire” (the most extreme form of false), discusses the AGW/CC aspect of it, and why people believe such lies and b.s. It also discusses the serious difficulty of changing the minds of hard core Trump followers, but then goes into discussing the counter-tactic of "inoculating" others against the lies and propaganda that Trump spouts regularly.


Only five? Aw man, I was hoping for a whole book. I'm no Trump fan, but things could get worse than Trump. Try this possible scenario on for size: Due to the threat from some old white guys like me to not vote at all rather than vote for Trump, Sanders gets the idea that he can win as an independent so once he doesn't get the Democratic nomination, he declares as an independent. The result: neither Trump, Clinton, nor Sander get the minimum electoral votes. All three would then go to the house for a vote with each state's contingent getting a single vote. This will take years and cost hundreds of lives. Meanwhile, the top two Vice Presidential candidates go to the Senate for a vote with each Senator getting one vote. Assuming Trump's VP candidate is in the top 2 (a valid assumption, I think. Sanders would split the vote and cost Clinton the outright win, but probably not wash Trump all the way to third. As you mentioned, there are a lot of the Trumpadoodles out there). So, we end up with Trumps VP candidate as acting President while the House spins out of control trying to get both sides from each state to agree on something (which, as demonstrated, in nigh impossible). Trump is bad but there are things worse...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
92. Greg01
7:21 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 89. helmingstay:



One key problem is that, while land productivity has increased linearly (constant increase per unit time), human population has increased exponentially (proportional / % increase per unit time). To be fair, the trend in human population growth *might* be leveling out.

The other *big* problem is that modern agricultural productivity is largely predicated on oil, natural gas derived nitrogen fertilizer, mined phosphorus, and fossil ground water. As the article points out, increasing ag yields while *decreasing* emissions is a big problem that many people (and countries) are working on.

Behind those flashy graphics of rising yields lies a lot of GHG emissions and unsustainable use of scarce resources. In addition, the effect of 2-4 deg C climate change on world agricultural productivity remains to be seen.

On the contrary - the advantage of GMO crops is that they have been modified incrementally to require less fertilizer, less water, (drought resistant) less pesticides, etc. etc. A lot of research has been done in this area and efficiencies are still being realized. These gains have been largely realized in the U.S. There's no reason why these gains can't be replicated elsewhere.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
91. JohnLonergan
7:20 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 6. Guysgal:

Thanks for the update Bob and Jeff. What have we wrought from overpopulation and burning fossil fuels?




Conquest, War, Famine & Death
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
90. hydrus
7:17 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
89. helmingstay
7:13 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 83. Greg01:


Thanks for posting this. If you were to plot the yields going back to the 1930s and 40s, you would see truly amazing gains in land productivity. Those yields are still going up BTW, I just don't buy that we will not have enough to feed ourselves and the world. But the doomsayers have been singing the same tune since the 60s and have been wrong again and again.


One key problem is that, while land productivity has increased linearly (constant increase per unit time), human population has increased exponentially (proportional / % increase per unit time). To be fair, the trend in human population growth *might* be leveling out.

The other *big* problem is that modern agricultural productivity is largely predicated on oil, natural gas derived nitrogen fertilizer, mined phosphorus, and fossil ground water. As the article points out, increasing ag yields while *decreasing* emissions is a big problem that many people (and countries) are working on.

Behind those flashy graphics of rising yields lies a lot of GHG emissions and unsustainable use of scarce resources. In addition, the effect of 2-4 deg C climate change on world agricultural productivity remains to be seen.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
88. pottery
7:11 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 77. RitaEvac:





LOLOL, looks exactly like my tree.
Thanks !
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
87. Misanthroptimist
7:09 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 83. Greg01:


Thanks for posting this. If you were to plot the yields going back to the 1930s and 40s, you would see truly amazing gains in land productivity. Those yields are still going up BTW, I just don't buy that we will not have enough to feed ourselves and the world. But the doomsayers have been singing the same tune since the 60s and have been wrong again and again.

Over the same time period in those graphs human population has gone from around 3 billion to over 7 billion. See the problem now?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
86. RitaEvac
7:03 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Winds are gusting over 50 mph in W TX right now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
85. helmingstay
6:56 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 35. hydrus:

Yep.. Bottom line, my grocery bill has increased 50% since 2000..Inflation certainly factors in, but not as much as the increase in some of the food prices..Remember that I live sorta in the boonies, so the stores can use the location to there advantage...:)


From 2000 to 2016, compounded inflation alone gives a 38% price increase (ref).
A 12% increase *above* inflation over 15 years isn't that bad (less than 1% per year), especially compared to heathcare costs (more than 10% per year increases)!

Of course, even modest annual price increases add up quickly if you're on a fixed income. Inflation is one reason why wage stagnation is such a big deal.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
84. slavicthunder
6:55 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
As a former Colorado resident, I know the importance of water conservation...so this weather event is a blessing for many in that beautiful state. Not so much for motorists.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
83. Greg01
6:53 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 72. canyonboy:

US grain yields and production at record levels (improved strains and GMOs since the 1980s).




40% of the US corn crop is used for ethanol production. Almost all of the remaining corn is used for livestock feed.

Thanks for posting this. If you were to plot the yields going back to the 1930s and 40s, you would see truly amazing gains in land productivity. Those yields are still going up BTW, I just don't buy that we will not have enough to feed ourselves and the world. But the doomsayers have been singing the same tune since the 60s and have been wrong again and again.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
82. weathermanwannabe
6:53 PM GMT on March 23, 2016

Quoting 80. 62901IL:



I think you're seeing wildfire smoke in Kansas.
Great catch...................Forgot about the fires there and how the smoke shows up on radar but I think the streak is from fires in North OK or North TX. Thank You.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
81. Gearsts
6:50 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
80. 62901IL
6:49 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 79. weathermanwannabe:

Only a sliver of convection now over OK and no storm/wind reports so far in the last 3 hours; while this evening might bring some t-storms so far so good:


Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

last3hours Reports Graphic





I think you're seeing wildfire smoke in Kansas.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
79. weathermanwannabe
6:48 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Only a sliver of convection now over OK and no storm/wind reports so far in the last 3 hours; while this evening might bring some t-storms so far so good:


Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

last3hours Reports Graphic


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
78. Xulonn
6:47 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 64. NttyGrtty:


Relax. You got system glitched while in mid attack on someone's vocabulary. That's funny. No tactics involved, just a outward chuckle typed the way I saw it. I was unaware there was a complete set of numbered climate denier tactics. Please send a link. I would love to buy the book...
I am muy tranquilo - blood pressure is down and I'm enjoying the day.

However, I often take the opportunity to joust with denialists - who have nothing but b.s. and blather to support their positions and statements. It is simply fun and games for me. Probably similar to the challenge and fun of a hurricane buff guessing how many storms there will be in a season.

There are many lists of AGW/CC denier tactics, and I used two of the prominent ones, but made up "ranking" numbers.

Skeptical Science, in it's "Making Sense of Climate Science Denial" MOOC, listed and defined five tactics used by denialists. Based on the information in that course, John Cook and Margaret Crane just put up a great new post at Skeptical Science today titled How to inoculate people against Donald Trump's fact bending claims.

The posts tells how a careful analysis by Politifact found that 78% of Trump’s statements were "Mostly False," "False," or “Pants on Fire” (the most extreme form of false), discusses the AGW/CC aspect of it, and why people believe such lies and b.s. It also discusses the serious difficulty of changing the minds of hard core Trump followers, but then goes into discussing the counter-tactic of "inoculating" others against the lies and propaganda that Trump spouts regularly.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
77. RitaEvac
6:46 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 74. pottery:

Greetings !

Hot and very Dry here at 11n 61W, Trinidad.
Water restrictions in force and reservoirs are low after a shortfall in rains during Jun-Dec rainy season.
Bush and forest fires in many areas and Helicopters dropping water near houses where needed.

But the really Bad news, is that my Calabash Tree still has plenty leaves on.
And as Everyone knows, that means the Dry Season is not really here yet !!

This is going to be a Long, Hard one.....


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
76. JRRP7
6:33 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 71. ACSeattle:


Answering that question is beyond the pay grade of those of us who comment on this blog. You'll have to take that up with management, i.e., Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

ok but... what do you think about this ?...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
74. pottery
6:29 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Greetings !

Hot and very Dry here at 11n 61W, Trinidad.
Water restrictions in force and reservoirs are low after a shortfall in rains during Jun-Dec rainy season.
Bush and forest fires in many areas and Helicopters dropping water near houses where needed.

But the really Bad news, is that my Calabash Tree still has plenty leaves on.
And as Everyone knows, that means the Dry Season is not really here yet !!

This is going to be a Long, Hard one.....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
73. 62901IL
6:28 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
That doesn't look remotely like a wedge.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB / SWRN IA / NWRN MO / EXTREME NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231807Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND ISSUED DURING
THE 20-21Z PERIOD. THE RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE CONFINED TO
A WEDGE-SHAPED AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE E OF
AN ARCING DRYLINE AND BOUNDED TO THE N BY A STATIONARY FRONT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING CU FIELD
FROM SERN NEB SEWD TO THE GREATER KANSAS CITY AREA. 17Z SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS WITH
AN ARCING DRYLINE EXTENDING E AND SEWD INTO ERN KS WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING E OF THE SURFACE LOW. COLD AIR N OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENTRENCHED AND LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. A WARM/MOIST SECTOR
FEATURES THE MOIST AXIS WITH LOW TO MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IMMEDIATELY E OF THE ARCING DRYLINE AND TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 70S CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.

AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSE 100 KT H5 JET STREAK OVER OK/KS
NOSES TOWARDS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY COINCIDENT WITH A WEAKENING IN
THE CAPPING INVERSION. ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AROUND
21Z. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /40-50 KT/ WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION AND A COUPLE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY MATURE INTO
SUPERCELLS. BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WITH THE NERN
EXTENSION OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES /8 DEG C OR HIGHER/ WILL FOSTER
STRONG LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS OF PARCELS WITH ANY
SUPERCELL RESIDING IN THE RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
AS A RESULT...THE RISK FOR MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES
WILL PROBABLY MAXIMIZE DURING THE 22-00Z PERIOD. LARGE HAIL AND
DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

..SMITH/GRAMS.. 03/23/2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
72. canyonboy
6:26 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
US grain yields and production at record levels (improved strains and GMOs since the 1980s).




40% of the US corn crop is used for ethanol production. Almost all of the remaining corn is used for livestock feed.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
71. ACSeattle
6:20 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 50. JRRP7:

God lord almighty .....could we please have a moratorium on the global warming topic until after, oh, I dunno, say Doomsday?

Answering that question is beyond the pay grade of those of us who comment on this blog. You'll have to take that up with management, i.e., Jeff Masters and Bob Henson
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
70. Xulonn
6:17 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 49. hydrus:
Without limit means infinite. No one has an infinite vocabulary - and if one had an infinite vocabulary, it could not be expressed on one comment.


Indeed...Finite vocab was a problem for me cause I couldnt explain how I felt about world and life events...This is why I turned to math and music...I communicate much better now...:)
Obviously, math & music - which are related - worked for you. I read almost all of your comments, Hydrus, and and I plus many of them. I appreciate your contributions to this forum.

With regard to vocabulary, I hope you realized that I was being snarky - most people know the difference between "caused" and "influenced" but choose to misquote or misuse the word "caused, because in AGW/CC attribution science, scientists don't use that word. Also, since you are into math, I'm sure you realize that "proofs" are used in math and philosophy, but seldom if ever in science.

Often, an AGW/CC denialist will use (or misuse) words such as "caused" in a feeble attempt to ridicule Dr. Masters and the rest of the world's climate scientists. They ignore the actual word "influence," and seem to pretend that it doesn't exist - hence my snarky response. Deniers will also use phrases such as "their is no proof" to counter the revelation of "overwhelming or strong evidence." In such cases, they are indicating either that they are buying into denialist propaganda and likely in denial, or perhaps choosing to remain purposefully ignorant of the truth.

I have watched many regulars here come to accept the reality of AGW/CC and it's likely consequences over the past five or six years, and signed up and joined the anti-denialist battles in 2012, mainly at Dr.Rood's blog.

There are a few hard-core deniers left, but most of them are weather buffs who do not appear to be well-versed in science. Those few get slapped down with science and reality -based information regularly, but the huge battles and mass bannings that we saw even a couple of years ago seem to be gone.

Now, most regulars and old-timers seem to respect the science-based postings of Dr. Masters and Bob Henson, as well as comments related to AGW/CC and its consequences by the many knowledgeable people who participate here. The discussions these days are more often about the science, and less about countering denialist b.s.and blather. I like the way this blog/forum is evolving!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
69. Patrap
6:09 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 67. gr8lakebreeze:



Indeed, I took advantage of the drying conditions today (a couple of inches of rain are forecast for tomorrow) and began dividing and separating my overgrown strawberry patch into more manageable narrow elevated rows. I was very pleased by the abundant activity of earth worms in my soil.


When ˆI turned everything over a few weeks back and elevated the Mater and Bell Pepper Rows ,,I also had beaucoup Earthworms.

Good to know as City Park has fishing close by.


Good luck and happy Hours for ya too.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
68. hydrus
6:05 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 65. JRRP7:


I put that because days ago someone while we were talk about hurricane season said this---
For the love of......could we please, please have a moratorium on the characterizations of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season until after, oh, I dunno, say Thanksgiving?---- and now when you are talking about global warming I said what I said... so do not take seriously
Its alright. Typing a thought is not easy sometimes...I try and fail regularly..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather