Spring Outlook for U.S. Drought and Flood: Dry to the Southwest, Wet to the Southeast

By: Bob Henson , 4:48 PM GMT on March 18, 2016

An unexpectedly dry Southwest has put a twist on this spring’s prospects for drought evolution and flood risk, according to dual outlooks issued by NOAA on Thursday (see Figures 1 and 2). Mild weather has limited the winter snowpack over the Midwest, but saturated soils and near- to above-average streamflows will heighten the risk of moderate flooding this spring over the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the far Southeast and recently hard-hit east Texas and north Louisiana (Figure 1). Meanwhile, drought conditions are projected to improve near the intersection of California, Oregon, and Nevada, while holding steady over southern California and southwest Nevada and developing over most of Arizona and southwest New Mexico (Figure 2).


Figure 1. NOAA’s spring flood outlook for 2016, issued on Thursday, March 17. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.


Figure 2. NOAA’s outlook for drought risk through June, issued on Thursday, March 17, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/CPC.


The trickster El Niño of 2015-16
Normally during a strong El Niño, winters tend to be wetter than average from California across the southern Rockies to the Gulf Coast. One of the strongest El Niños on record has been in play this winter. Every El Niño has its quirks, but this one has gone against the grain in several ways, most notably in U.S. precipitation (Figures 3 and 4). Instead of slathering the southern tier of the U.S. with moisture (Figure 4), this El Niño has aimed its firehose in two distinct paths, as shown in Figure 3. One extends from central California north to Washington, and the other stretches from Texas and the Gulf Coast north and east into the Midwest and Southeast (plus south Florida). At times, these swaths have featured atmospheric rivers often referred to as the Pineapple Express (flowing from the central tropical Pacific to the West Coast) and the Maya Express (streaming from the Gulf of Mexico into the eastern U.S.).


Figure 3. Observed precipitation as a percentage of normal for the 90 days ending at 8:00 am EST Thursday, March 17, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/AHPS.


Figure 4 (at right). Enhancements in the risk of wet extremes (green) and dry extremes (red) when El Niño is present in the January-to-March period. These estimates are based on more than 120 years of U.S. climate data and the Multivariate ENSO Index, which has been extended back to 1871. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL/PSD.


A puzzling drought threatens to expand

Seasonal prediction is not for the faint of heart. Over much of the country, the rainfall patterns of the past three months (Figure 3) have been directly counter to what’s most likely during El Niño (Figure 4). The unexpectedly soggy Midwest and parched Southwest are especially striking. No major storms are in the immediate forecast for the Southwest, and Pacific storms become much less frequent from late March onward across southern California into Arizona and New Mexico.

At the NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center, climate scientist Michelle L’Heureux put together a comparison of anomalies (departures from average) in the 500-mb wind (about four miles above sea level) for the Dec-Jan-Feb period (see Figure 5, below). “What is pretty clear to me is that the Pacific jet is shifted north of its normal position,” L’Heureux told me. “The typical wintertime Aleutian low is weaker than it is normally during an El Nino event. The El Niño wave train is there; it is just not *exactly* where it is located typically. But as we’ve been saying for the past year, no single year perfectly matches the ‘typical’ pattern. These sort of shifts are not unexpected to us, which is why our forecasts are probabilistic.  A strong El Nino doesn't negate the fact there is uncertainty and it is intrinsic to the climate system.”


Figure 5. A comparison of 500-mb height and wind anomalies for the December-January-February period in a typical El Niño (left) and during 2015-16 (right). Blue colors indicate lower-than-average heights (corresponding to upper-level troughiness); red colors indicate above-average heights. Image credit: Courtesy Michelle L’Heureux, NOAA/NWS/CPC.


It sometimes rains in Southern California
I asked Alex Tardy, warning and coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego, to weigh in on how things look from where he sits. “We never told anyone there would be flooding or 100-year storms (though they told us that!),” said Tardy, “but with high confidence, we expected at least average precipitation, with the more likely scenario of 125% of average in our region. While most people expected flooding and torrential rains, we only had small doses of it in early January. In fact, we've had more impact in our region from squall lines and high wind (Jan. 5-6, Jan. 31, Mar. 7, and Mar. 11).”

Mountain snowpack in the Sierra Nevada is running near the seasonal average (Figure 6). By itself, that’s not enough to fully alleviate the impact of four-plus years of drought, but it should help keep the tap flowing at least modestly this year over southern California, which imports a good share of its water from the Sierra. Additional water comes into SoCal from the Colorado River basin, where the snowpack has been reasonably close to average, although powerhouse early storms over this region segued into a largely dry late winter. Meanwhile, the landscape of Southern California has received only a few moistening storms this winter. In its weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, the National Drought Mitigation Center kept 35% of California in exceptional long-term drought (the most dire category). This area now extends roughly south and west of a line from San Francisco to Reno to Los Angeles.


Figure 6. The amount of water held in snowpack (snow water equivalent) across the western U.S. on Wednesday, March 16, 2016, as a percentage of the median value for the date. Much of the mountain West has near- or above-normal snow water equivalent, but values below 25% are widespread across New Mexico, Arizona, and southern Utah. Image credit: USDA/NRCS.

“Most of our region [far southern California] is going to end up with from 40% to 70% of normal precipitation for the water year, unless we get a couple of April or May anomalies,” Tardy told me. “Given the significant green-up that we saw from the winter rains we did receive, there definitely is a lot more small fuel available for wildfires.” Although San Diego and Los Angeles haven’t gotten the El Niño onslaught they expected, they may get more sultriness than usual again this summer, according to Tardy, as sea-surface temperatures remain unusually warm west of Baja California for the third straight year. Hot temperatures may add to the discomfort: San Diego just notched the warmest February in its 142-year climate record, only the latest in a series of heat records set over the last two years.

What the year 1992 tells us about today
The weird effects of this El Niño on U.S. precipitation don’t resemble the other two “super” events in recent times (1982-83 and 1997-98). However, there is something of an analog, according to Michael Ventrice (The Weather Company). Ventrice has analyzed the location and strength of the semi-permanent equatorial trough, or standing wave, in the Pacific that corresponds to each strong El Niño of recent decades. In a prototypical El Niño, the most unusually warm water and most concentrated convection (showers and thunderstorms) are in the far eastern tropical Pacific, which tends to bring the subtropical jet stream directly into the California coast. This winter, the most anomalous warm water and convection has been in the central Pacific, close to the Date Line. The associated subtropical jet has occasionally punched into the Southwest but more often headed toward northern California, Oregon, and Washington. This was also the case in April 1992, toward the tail end of the strong El Niño event of 1991-92. Then, as now, the focus of El Niño’s oceanic warming was near the Date Line. “The enhanced precipitation signal in April 1992 looked to have set up further north than what you'd expect in El Nino base states,” Ventrice told me. “The Northwest and northern California saw the bulk of enhanced rainfall. Southern California was fairly dry.”

Ventrice added: “We probably won’t see a repeat of April 1992 for the western U.S. pattern in April, as other external forcing mechanisms [including a recent strong split in the stratospheric polar vortex] are expected to overpower the El Nino base state and drive the pattern across the Northern Hemisphere during April. Long-range sub-seasonal models are indicating highly anomalous warmth and dry weather across the entire western U.S. during the first two weeks of April.”

A parting swipe from winter across the Northeast
A nor’easter developing off the East Coast late this weekend could bring a strip of moderate to heavy snow over or near the major coastal cities from Washington, D.C., to Boston, although much uncertainty remains. Total snowfall could end up as high as 3-6” in D.C. and 10” or more in Boston. There’s been plenty of conflict in the model guidance on the timing, strength, and positioning of this storm, which will make a big difference in snowfall potential. Given the lack of intensely cold air, a nighttime snowfall would be more likely to produce accumulations in the D.C. area, mostly on grassy surfaces. Capital Weather Gang will be tracking the storm closely. Steve Gregory examined the prospects of significant snow, and the longer-range U.S. outlook, in a post on Thursday.


Figure 7. Infrared image of Cyclone Emeraude at peak strength (Category 4, with 145 mph winds), collected by the VIIRS instrument aboard the NOAA/NASA Suomi NPP satellite. Image credit: NOAA.

Emeraude hits Category 4 strength in South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone Emeraude has been putting on quite a show this week across the remote waters of the South Indian Ocean. Emeraude quickly spun up to Category 4 strength, rocketing from peak sustained winds of 65 mph at 06Z Wednesday to 145 mph at 06Z Thursday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Emeraude underwent an eyewall replacement cycle later on Thursday, bringing down its intensity. Weak steering currents have allowed Emeraude to linger and pull up cooler water with reduced oceanic heat content, hastening its decline. At 06Z Friday (2:00 am EDT), Emeraude’s peak winds had dropped back to 100 mph. The cyclone could get a final shot at intensification late this weekend or early next week as it begins accelerating toward the southwest. Emeraude is not posing a threat to any land areas.

We’ll be back with our next post on Monday. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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322. vis0
8:17 PM GMT on March 21, 2016

Quoting 312. weathermanwannabe:

My deep apologies Sir.............These spotty clumps of convection do not even remotely qualify for Grocon Blob status............. I stand corrected........:)
Not to worry i've posted to Grothar thinking "BL**" on things as, cotton balls which had become statically attracted to my screen, or even when Santa leaned forward and his beard passed in front of a MACY*s monitor with a map of the Atlantic. The worst was when my friend poodle jump in front of me and in seeing the poodle's 3 white puffs on its tail i jumped thinking WOW a rare 3 "BL**" sighting. i need to take 4 years of Blobology 1(@)1 and get glasses.

Back to observing weather and learning from past mistakes or weather extremes so we can give those ahead of us a better opportunity to enjoy Earth.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
321. wunderkidcayman
3:21 PM GMT on March 21, 2016
Quoting 310. Tropicsweatherpr:

Nino 3.4 continues to creep downward as the CPC 3/21/16 update is down to 1.7C.



CPC Weekly Update
Quoting 314. Tazmanian:

With today Nino 3.4 at 1.7 looks like the strong. El Nio. Has been Dowgraded from strong too mod EL Nino


Others that keep track on anomalies in Nio regions have weekly values lower some have 1.6 even BOM which has it the loses has 3.4 at 1.5 and falling CPC might be modest

I'll take the median value and say 1.6

I say no doubt El Nio is no longer strong and I'd say soon to be down to weak and maybe we might see neutral by Early mid Spring

Anyway sub surface is really cooling off the sub surface anoms chart now switched to negative

Anyway next weeks update and BOM update on the 29th March and first week of April updates should be very interesting

Also wanted to point out even though CFS is a very big outlier right now I've noticed on every update over the last few updates it has been dropping in intensity shifting bit by bit closer to neutral and La Nia I think when we start getting out of the Spring predictability barrier the CFS will follow suit with the rest of the models into La Nia

Speaking about Spring predictability barrier I say that the models are being a bit slow on transition and weak on intensity of the incoming La Nia due to us entering the Spring predictability barrier IMO
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
320. Sfloridacat5
3:18 PM GMT on March 21, 2016
Quoting 318. JNFlori30A:

Brrrrr.. woke up to upper 30's this morning. Feeling sorry for the Spring Beakers who didn't pack any jackets..


I always question why Spring Breakers go to north Florida.

It's a little cool today here in Fort Myers, but the rest of the week it will be really warm.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
319. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:15 PM GMT on March 21, 2016
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
318. JNFlori30A
3:01 PM GMT on March 21, 2016
Brrrrr.. woke up to upper 30's this morning. Feeling sorry for the Spring Beakers who didn't pack any jackets..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
317. cRRKampen
2:59 PM GMT on March 21, 2016
Quoting 313. georgevandenberghe:



Yes. This has been done several times.. I think the first was in 1958.

I know.
I was just surprised at that headline, reading 'Arctic frozen ice'. I never knew ice was frozen. Must be specific to the Arctic, not just ice, but actually frozen ice. Staggering...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
316. weathermanwannabe
2:57 PM GMT on March 21, 2016
Any flights from Orlando or South Florida to Bermuda would have a nice tail wind today and make the flight in record time due to the straight line jet winds......................................


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
315. Xandtar
2:39 PM GMT on March 21, 2016
Just looking at the main story... so many maps marked in reds, greens, yellows... sometimes the color blind like me can make out what is what in these weather maps by context, as in when fronts are coming in, though the hooks people see of contrasting colors for tornados all look the same.

But climate maps like these, impossible. I can't tell a rain deficit from a surplus.

So frustrating.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
314. Tazmanian
2:27 PM GMT on March 21, 2016
With today Nino 3.4 at 1.7 looks like the strong. El Niño. Has been Dowgraded from strong too mod EL Nino
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
313. georgevandenberghe
2:14 PM GMT on March 21, 2016
Quoting 303. cRRKampen:


Huh? Is that ice frozen?


Yes. This has been done several times.. I think the first was in 1958.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
312. weathermanwannabe
1:51 PM GMT on March 21, 2016
Quoting 311. Grothar:





G0RRRRR! Those are not blobs. They are just disorganized clumps of clouds and convection. As we all know, when you overuse your blobs, they become less special. :)


My deep apologies Sir.............These spotty clumps of convection do not even remotely qualify for Grocon Blob status............. I stand corrected........:)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
311. Grothar
1:47 PM GMT on March 21, 2016
Quoting 308. weathermanwannabe:

Also note the blobs of convection in the Atlantic off of the NE-Canadian maritimes relative to the warmer SST anomaly near the Gulf Stream:








G0RRRRR! Those are not blobs. They are just disorganized clumps of clouds and convection. As we all know, when you overuse your blobs, they become less special. :)

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
310. Tropicsweatherpr
1:46 PM GMT on March 21, 2016
Nino 3.4 continues to creep downward as the CPC 3/21/16 update is down to +1.7C.



CPC Weekly Update
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
309. LuckySD
1:33 PM GMT on March 21, 2016
Good morning everyone. Haven't been able to keep up lately as my schedule has been crazy, hope all is well and the Deep South is getting dried out. Going to be a nice spring like start to the week for me with Monday and Tuesday in the high 50's low 60's....and then I'm going to have to dig my winter coat back out for Wednesday.



I'm located on the right side of the darkest blue.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
308. weathermanwannabe
11:48 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Also note the blobs of convection in the Atlantic off of the NE-Canadian maritimes relative to the warmer SST anomaly near the Gulf Stream:



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
307. weathermanwannabe
11:39 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
And finally that that band of snow pushing across the NE corridor:
Northeast sector loop
 

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
306. weathermanwannabe
11:34 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
The current look, jet dip with the cold air pushing in from Canada, and the lows this morning:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
305. weathermanwannabe
11:31 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Good Morning All. Cold out there across Conus today and plenty of precip in the form of snow and rain across parts of the US. We always get a few shots of Old Man Winter well into March and this is a cold one.



Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EDT Mon Mar 21 2016

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 21 2016 - 12Z Wed Mar 23 2016

...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern
California...

...Heavy snow possible along the Northeast Coast...

Snow will continue for today for coastal areas spanning from Massachusetts
to eastern Maine as a low pressure system tracks northeastward over the
Atlantic Ocean. Snow will taper off by late tonight/early Tuesday morning
as the central low pressure reaches the Canadian Maritimes. Accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches is forecast along the coast, with 4 to 10 inches possible
for extreme eastern Maine.

Meanwhile, a front over northern Intermountain West/Great Basin regions
will progress eastward in the Central and Northern Plains by this evening.
Light snow is forecast for the higher elevations today. Snow will increase
in intensity, as well as, expand to lower elevations and areas east of the
front range. Central Wyoming could have accumulations reaching or
exceeding 1 foot by Wednesday morning. A cold front pushing south from
Canada into the High Plains/Upper Midwest will link up with the boundary
moving out of the Rockies by Tuesday morning. Light snow will develop
across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. This front will
stretch from the Central Plains to the Northeast by Thursday morning. Snow
will develop from Nebraska to Maine along this boundary. Snow
accumulations of 1 to 4 inches is expected, with 4 to 8 inches forecast
from northern Iowa to western Michigan and upstate New York.

The Pacific Northwest will have rain and mountain snow through Wednesday
morning as multiple system trek through from the Pacific. Coastal areas
are forecast to have 3-day totals of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated areas of
4 inches in northern California. As the front pushes further inland, snow
levels will lower by Tuesday morning for the ranges in the Northwest and
northern California.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
304. MahFL
10:31 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
So the NE storm went east of the 40 70 mark after all ?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
303. cRRKampen
9:19 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Quoting 250. RobertWC:

Ice breaker: US nuclear submarine bursts through frozen Arctic ice (VIDEO)

Link

Huh? Is that ice frozen?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
302. PedleyCA
5:15 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
   Good Night All. I am out of here too.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
301. Dakster
5:11 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Night night everyone.... Kiddos go back to school tomorrow...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
300. Dakster
5:06 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Maybe my investments in companies that develop desalinization plants wasn't a bad idea afterall.... (kidding)

For the first time I am no longer stressed out by Hurricane season... Which is a good feeling.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
299. PedleyCA
5:02 AM GMT on March 21, 2016

Quoting 298. Dakster:



Weird weather for sure... I hope it isn't icy out. I can handle snow and cold. It's the going above and below freezing with rain/snow that stinks.

Really. not much. Same old same old... Getting any? What about rain?
   All I can say is CLEAR. Been Foggy in the morning last few days. That is as close as it gets...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
298. Dakster
4:59 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Quoting 297. PedleyCA:

Ice Pellets. 40's the rest of the Week, so much for the Snow..... Other than that what is up Dakster....



Weird weather for sure... I hope it isn't icy out. I can handle snow and cold. It's the going above and below freezing with rain/snow that stinks.

Really. not much. Same old same old... Getting any rain?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
297. PedleyCA
4:55 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
  Ice Pellets. 40's the rest of the Week, so much for the Snow..... Other than that what is up Dakster....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
296. Dakster
4:49 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Quoting 283. Tazmanian:



Oh well back too the drawing board


Will you say that when cancer rates hit all time high and the ocean food chain is tainted? That was horrible news.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
295. PedleyCA
4:47 AM GMT on March 21, 2016

Quoting 293. canyonboy:



Here in SoCal darn near perfect weather; sunny, lows near 50 (which cools off the house) and highs near 80. Don't think about the weather much this time of year.
Indian Hills or just south of there was 55.1F(low) and 76.7F was the (high). very nice, just cool the house down with a fan in the morning and again at night and no AC or water cooler needed.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
294. wunderkidcayman
4:29 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Nice flare up of thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean/Yucatan channel
It odd we don't normally get that until about mid-late April

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
293. canyonboy
4:10 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Quoting 277. washingtonian115:

No one has made a comment since 7:26 pm.It has been a dull weather day up here in D.C.It seems to be the theme to have nice weather solely on Wednesday's and Thursday's and we will be following that theme this week with highs in the mid 70's Thursday.


Here in SoCal darn near perfect weather; sunny, lows near 50 (which cools off the house) and highs near 80. Don't think about the weather much this time of year.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
292. justmehouston
3:48 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Quoting 290. vis0:

justmehouston:

You've got mail (nothing specific just info)



Thanks vis, will respond.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
291. Patrap
3:33 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Hey RobertWC,

ya have some wu mail from me.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
290. vis0
3:31 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
justmehouston:

You've got mail (nothing specific just info)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
289. RobertWC
2:41 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Quoting 283. Tazmanian:



Oh well back too the drawing board


Spoken like some one who is not a fisherman in the North Pacific, or a rate payer of TEPCO, or a tax payer of Japan.

Sorry, but some of these middle school quips on the web to the deepest of problems we face, really get my hackles up.

One thing about the web, Lindsey Lohan's breasts , and the melt down of reactor # 1 at Fukushima both get the same level of comment. A short quip, and on to the next mess.

It's driving us all to have the attention span of gerbils. And as long as we aren't ripping out the dry wall in our houses it's all good.

Guano Insanity
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
288. vis0
2:38 AM GMT on March 21, 2016

Quoting 283. Tazmanian:



Oh well back too the drawing board
thank goodness they were not "atomic" powered robots...they weren't, right?

They need a there stage clean up "module" robot. First stage hoover craft to encapsulated rods.
Second stage to quickly carry the now encapsulated rods into a cemebt-nano-silcone-cement blend.
Third stage, a robot to kick vis0 a-- for giving advice on nothing vis0 knows of...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
287. vis0
2:26 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
CREDIT:: NOAA, University of Washington (final images not a product of the aforementioned)
NOTE1:: Yucatan flare up actually nudges ENSO enriched moisture feed westward near Yucatan Peninsula. Though colour key is not official those are some darn high clouds for March.
NOTE2:: Its snowing in NYC since 9pm EDT. (flurries 8:30EDT)
ImgLand.net image

ZILLY NOTE:: Maybe that flare up is the winter-Spring switch shortening out , the switch a WxU member  was looking for. earlier on this bogbyte.
Remember the 2-3 month ENSO delay so maybe at this moment we over the USofA are seeing El Niño's 1.7 to 2.2 atmospheric "inter-reactions."
 
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
286. Midworld
2:14 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Quoting 282. RobertWC:

Fukushima radiation has fried clean-up robots

It’s been reported that the robots sent in to remove the melted fuel rods have died — their wiring fried from the high levels of radiation as soon as they got close to the reactor, rendering them useless. These robots were just unveiled two months ago after two years of development.

Many other efforts have been made to clean up and contain the site. Human workers as well as robot counterparts are there everyday, but so far only 10 percent of the mess has actually been cleaned up. Reactors 2 and 3 are thought to have had partial meltdowns, but Reactor 1 is of the greatest concern. It’s believed that the fuel may have burned through the pressure vessel, fallen to the bottom of the containment vessel and into the concrete pedestal below.


Link


This is why the robots will eventually turn on us.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
285. RobertWC
2:08 AM GMT on March 21, 2016


Guano Insanity
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
284. RobertWC
2:02 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Choking smog returns to Mexico City


The haze that shrouded the second-largest city in the Western Hemisphere for four days never reached the worst periods in the 1980s and 1990s, but ultimately resulted from the fact that there are still too many cars on the crowded streets.


Despite much grumbling the government imposed a rule that forced cars more than eight years old to stay parked for at least six days each month even if they passed smog checks.

But the Supreme Court last year overturned that rule, putting an estimated additional 1.4 million vehicles back on the streets, many of them older, more-polluting models. As traffic jams increased, overall emissions were boosted even more because cars were forced to idle, experts say.




Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
283. Tazmanian
1:59 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Quoting 282. RobertWC:

Fukushima radiation has fried clean-up robots

It’s been reported that the robots sent in to remove the melted fuel rods have died — their wiring fried from the high levels of radiation as soon as they got close to the reactor, rendering them useless. These robots were just unveiled two months ago after two years of development.

Many other efforts have been made to clean up and contain the site. Human workers as well as robot counterparts are there everyday, but so far only 10 percent of the mess has actually been cleaned up. Reactors 2 and 3 are thought to have had partial meltdowns, but Reactor 1 is of the greatest concern. It’s believed that the fuel may have burned through the pressure vessel, fallen to the bottom of the containment vessel and into the concrete pedestal below.


Link


Oh well back too the drawing board
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
282. RobertWC
1:46 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Fukushima radiation has fried clean-up robots

It’s been reported that the robots sent in to remove the melted fuel rods have died — their wiring fried from the high levels of radiation as soon as they got close to the reactor, rendering them useless. These robots were just unveiled two months ago after two years of development.

Many other efforts have been made to clean up and contain the site. Human workers as well as robot counterparts are there everyday, but so far only 10 percent of the mess has actually been cleaned up. Reactors 2 and 3 are thought to have had partial meltdowns, but Reactor 1 is of the greatest concern. It’s believed that the fuel may have burned through the pressure vessel, fallen to the bottom of the containment vessel and into the concrete pedestal below.


Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
281. RobertWC
1:31 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Stunning Time-lapse Shows Beauty and Danger of Wildfires



Photographer and videographer Jeff Frost has spent the past few years chasing wildfires across California, to document their toll and make a point about their increased danger in a warming world.

"As each year gets hotter and fire season in the state continues to expand, I have become increasingly concerned about our continued existence on this planet," said Frost, 37, who is based in Los Angeles.


Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
280. Geoboy645
1:24 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Well looks like winter's not left Wisconsin yet. Wednesday its supposed to mix and then turn to snow 1-3" expected. The part that sucks though is that its on my Spring Break any other week its 50's and 60's all week,but when I have Spring Break nope it must snow. Gotta love Mother Nature.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
279. vis0
1:17 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Quoting 275. Dakster:

We broke some snowfall records yesterday:

National Weather Service meteorologist Joe Wegman said Sunday that Anchorage’ official snow tally for Saturday, from Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, was 6.4 inches -- enough to topple the previous record for March 19, 5.2 inches set in 1979. The Muldoon area saw about 9.5 inches of snow for the day, with both Eagle River and Palmer seeing 10 inches.

Source: http://www.adn.com/article/20160320/last-day-winte r-snowfall-breaks-daily-record-anchorage

a href="http://www.adn.com/article/20160320/last-day -winter-snowfall-breaks-daily-record-anchorage"
target="_blank">Link


Hey BB - How goes it?


Dakster took HHjoe's Atmospheric trickle and turned it into an Atmospheric snow-cone machine...grape flavour please.

This week begins the next 2 months WxTrend (according to only me). Watching to see if HHjoe gets out of season moisture, not saying super duper but an ~inch here or there for the start of what should be the drying season(s) is something.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
278. sanflee76
12:30 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Quoting 277. washingtonian115:

No one has made a comment since 7:26 pm.It has been a dull weather day up here in D.C.It seems to be the theme to have nice weather solely on Wednesday's and Thursday's and we will be following that theme this week with highs in the mid 70's Thursday.

i commented at 8:09pm so not sure what ur looking at
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
277. washingtonian115
12:11 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
No one has made a comment since 7:26 pm.It has been a dull weather day up here in D.C.It seems to be the theme to have nice weather solely on Wednesday's and Thursday's and we will be following that theme this week with highs in the mid 70's Thursday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
276. sanflee76
12:09 AM GMT on March 21, 2016
Quoting 273. Sfloridacat5:



On several occasions, the area north of Orlando saw pre-frontal (or pre squall line) precipitation. This really stabilized the atmosphere in those areas.
While to the south, the sun was out and the squall line was able to take advantage of the higher temperatures and dewpoints.

Another really common trend is for the squall lines to move through the Tampa area in the early part of the day. Then the squall line moves through S.W. Florida in the afternoon and eventually S.E. Florida during the late evening or overnight.
This timing happens really frequently.


Even with optimal daytime heating the storms/rain still have fallen apart so i think it's more upper atmosphere dynamics happening or lack thereof
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
275. Dakster
11:26 PM GMT on March 20, 2016
We broke some snowfall records yesterday:

National Weather Service meteorologist Joe Wegman said Sunday that Anchorage%u2019 official snow tally for Saturday, from Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, was 6.4 inches -- enough to topple the previous record for March 19, 5.2 inches set in 1979. The Muldoon area saw about 9.5 inches of snow for the day, with both Eagle River and Palmer seeing 10 inches.

Source: http://www.adn.com/article/20160320/last-day-winte r-snowfall-breaks-daily-record-anchorage



Hey BB - How goes it?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
273. Sfloridacat5
11:14 PM GMT on March 20, 2016
Quoting 272. sanflee76:


I've noticed that too Jedkins, at least since the beginning of February. All the rain seems to dissipate as it comes in to Orlando area from the northwest but it stays together and pounds the southern part of the state. I read somewhere that some of the frontal passages occurred with deep moisture coming up from the south but remaining south of the Orlando area with the passage of the fronts and impulses. What do you think?


On several occasions, the area north of Orlando saw pre-frontal (or pre squall line) precipitation. This really stabilized the atmosphere in those areas.
While to the south, the sun was out and the squall line was able to take advantage of the higher temperatures and dewpoints.

Another really common trend is for the squall lines to move through the Tampa area in the early part of the day. Then the squall line moves through S.W. Florida in the afternoon and eventually S.E. Florida during the late evening or overnight.
This timing happens really frequently.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
272. sanflee76
10:56 PM GMT on March 20, 2016
Quoting 154. Jedkins01:

I've been noticing an odd trend this spring and winter. Every single frontal system that has moved into Florida has followed the same pattern of the line of storms weakening from the Tampa Bay area north, and holding fine south of Tampa Bay, even though when the parent system is to the north, it should be the opposite, from Tampa Bay north.

Now if it was a case where the surface low was tracking just south of Tampa throughout this whole season, it would make sense, but the amount of times the northern half of these complexes collapses from Tampa to Orlando North into Jacksonville when the parent system lies to the north is frankly down right weird that it would happen consistently over an extended period.

I've noticed that too Jedkins, at least since the beginning of February. All the rain seems to dissipate as it comes in to Orlando area from the northwest but it stays together and pounds the southern part of the state. I read somewhere that some of the frontal passages occurred with deep moisture coming up from the south but remaining south of the Orlando area with the passage of the fronts and impulses. What do you think?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather