NOAA Agrees: February 2016 Was Earth's Warmest Month in Recorded History

By: Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on March 17, 2016

February 2016 was by far the planet's warmest February since record keeping began in 1880, and was also the warmest month relative to average of any month in the historical record, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Thursday. As discussed here on Sunday, NASA also rated February 2016 as the warmest February as well as the warmest month in recorded history (measured as a departure from average.) In the NOAA database, February 2016 came in a full 0.32°C (0.58°F) warmer than the previous record-holder, February 2015--a truly astounding margin to break an all-time monthly global temperature record by (these records are typically broken by just a few hundredths of a degree.) The five warmest months since 1880 (as measured by departure from average in both the NOAA and NASA databases) were the past five months. The impressive global warmth in recent months is due to the steady build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases due to human activities, plus a spike due to a large amount of heat being released from waters in the Eastern Pacific due to the strong El Niño event there.


Figure 1. Departure from average for the global February temperature for the years 1880 - 2016. This year had by far the warmest February temperatures on record. Image credit: NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

February 2016 also marked the tenth consecutive month that the monthly temperature record has been broken and the fifteenth consecutive month (since December 2014) that the monthly global temperature ranked among the three warmest for its respective month in the NOAA database. Global ocean temperatures during February 2016 were the warmest on record, and global land temperatures were the second warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in February 2016 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest in the 38-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). This is the fifth consecutive month the UAH database has registered a record monthly high.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for February 2016, the warmest February for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed across portions of South America, much of southern Africa, southern and eastern Europe, around the Urals of Russia, most of Southeast Asia stretching to northern Australia, and portions of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

Strong El Niño quickly weakening
February 2016 still featured strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) 1.8°C above average on March 12 in the so-called Niño3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 1.5°C above average to be considered a strong El Niño. El Niño is weakening quickly--the event peaked in strength in late November 2015, when the weekly Niño3.4 temperature anomaly hit a record 3.1°C. NOAA expects a transition to neutral conditions during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with a 50% chance of a transition to La Niña conditions during the fall.

Arctic sea ice falls to lowest February extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during February 2016 was the lowest in the 38-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This is the second consecutive month with a record-low sea ice extent.

Four billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2016
According to the February 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, four billion-dollar weather-related disasters have hit Earth so far in 2016:

1) Drought, Vietnam, 1/1 - 2/29, $6.7 billion, 0 killed
2) Winter Weather, Eastern U.S., 1/16 - 1/18, $2.0 billion, 58 killed
3) Winter Weather, East Asia, 1/20 - 1/25, $2.0 billion, 116 killed
4) Drought, Zimbabwe, 1/1 - 2/29, $1.6 billion, 0 killed

Notable global heat and cold marks set for February 2016
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 45.0°C (113.0°F) at Nguigmi, Niger, February 29: ties highest recorded temperature in February in the Northern Hemisphere
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -61.3°C (-78.3°F) at Summit, Greenland, February 11
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 47.8°C (118.0°F) at Mardie, Australia on February 12 and at Emu Creek, Australia on February 13
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -59.4°C (-74.9°F) at Dome Fuji, Antarctica, February 17
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

Major weather stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in February 2016
El Bolson (Argentina) max. 37.5°C, 1 February
Niuafoou (Tonga) max. 35.5°C, 1 February: New National Record High for Tonga
Bauerfield Airport (Vanuatu) max. 35.7°C, 7 February: New National Record High for Vanuatu
Tanna White Grass Airport (Vanuatu) max. 35.2°C, 7 February
Saratata (Vanuatu) Max. 35.3°C, 7 February
Ouloup (New Caledonia, France) max. 35.3°C, 7 February
Ouanamham (New Caledonia, France) max. 34.6°C, 7 February
Lamap Malekula (Vanuatu) max. 36.2°C, 8 February: New National Record High for Vanuatu
Fuaamotu Airport (Tonga) max. 34.4°C, 8 February
Pekoa Airport Santo (Vanuatu) max. 35.0°C, 9 February
Ambon (Indonesia) max. 36.1°C, 10 February
Cilaos (Reunion Islands, France) max. 30.4°C, 11 February
Aneityum (Vanuatu) max. 34.3°C, 11 February
Hanan Airport (Niue, New Zealand) max. 33.9°C, 11 February
Udu Point (Fiji) max. 34.0°C, 14 February
Sola Vanua Lava (Vanuatu) max. 35.0°C, 16 February
Low Isles Lighthouse (Australia) max. 38.8°C, 16 February
Bello (Colombia) max. 36.4°C, 16 February
Bondoukou (Cote d' Ivoire) max. 40.6°C, 16 February
Mangalore City (India) max. 38.4°C, 18 February
Kozhikode (India) max. 37.6°C, 19 February
Kannur (India) max. 38.8°C, 19 February
Dimbokro (Cote d' Ivoire) max. 41.2°C, 20 February
Gagnoa (Cote d' Ivoire) max. 38.9°C, 21 February
Port Harcourt (Nigeria) max. 38.0°C, 21 February
Nabouwalu(Fiji) max. 35.2°C, 23 February
Suva Airport (Fiji) max. 34.9°C, 24 February
Piura (Peru) max. 38.4°C, 24 February
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

Four all-time national heat records and one all-time cold record set through mid-March 2016
So far in 2016, four nations or territories have tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history, and one (Hong Kong) has set an all-time cold temperature record. "All-time" record here refers to the warmest or coldest temperature ever reliably reported in a nation or territory. The period of record varies from country to country and station to station, but it is typically a few decades to a century or more. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. I use as my source for international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of these national heat and cold records for 235 nations and territories on wunderground.com's extremes page. Here are 2016's all-time heat and cold records so far:

Botswana set its all-time hottest record on January 7, 2016, when the mercury hit 43.8°C (110.8°F) at Maun. The old record was set just the previous day  (January 6, 2016) with 43.5°C (110.3°F) at Tsabong. The record heat in Botswana during the first week of January was part of a remarkable heat wave that affected much of southern Africa, causing at least $250 million in drought-related damages to South Africa in the month. Mr. Herrera noted in an email to me that temperatures in South Africa at elevations between 1000 and 1600 meters were higher than any previous temperatures ever recorded at those altitudes anywhere in the world. The national heat records of Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, and Swaziland might all have fallen were it not for the lack of observing stations in the hottest areas. Lesotho has no weather stations anymore that issue the standard "synoptic" weather observations every six hours; Mozambique and Swaziland have closed all their stations in the hottest areas; and Namibia just closed its Noordower station, which was its hottest station.

Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.8°C (96.4°F) on January 10, 2016 at Futuna Airport. This is the second year in a row that Wallis and Futuna has beaten its all-time heat mark; the previous record was a 35.5°C (95.9°F) reading on January 19, 2015 at the Futuna Airport.

Tonga set its all-time hottest record on February 1, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Niuafoou.

Vanuatu in the South Pacific set its all-time national heat record on February 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 36.2°C (97.2°F) at Lamap Malekula. The previous record was a 35.7°C (96.3°F) reading just the previous day (February 7, 2016) at the Bauerfield Efate Airport. All seven major weather reporting stations in Vanuatu beat or tied their all-time heat records February 7 - 8, 2016.

Hong Kong Territory (China) set its all-time coldest mark on January 24, 2016, when the mercury dipped to -5.7°C (21.7°F) at Tai Mo Shan.

We'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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188. cRRKampen
5:13 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Apparently energy has to be expensive and polluting, both as much as possible.
I've seen a lot of these debates - where protagonists of nuclear chime in.
The strangest thing, that - in those debates it suddenly seems that wind and solar don't exist at all anymore.
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187. CTSkywatcher
5:02 PM GMT on March 18, 2016

Quoting 173. civEngineer:


You forgot Three Mile Island. Fukishima is an example of poor fail safes; Three Mile Island and Chernobyl are examples from the pioneering age of nuclear power and poor design. In the 60 odd years of nuclear power the three are the biggest events. Of which I will add only Chernobyl has resulted in anyone dying (so far). Other than these three, the world including the US has been successfully and safely using nuclear power. Take a look at France's pollution output where they use nuclear to produce 80% of their power, and tell me why we shouldn't emulate that.
The pink gorilla in the room with nuclear power in the USA is the age of all of the reactors.  Most are, to my knowledge, operating beyond their designed life span.  The price tag to decommission the old reactors is enough to make heads spin.  Add in the long term storage of spent fuel and you can forget building new reactors(each 1B plus plus).  It's cost prohibitive, plus there are huge environmental impacts - even without a spill or disaster like Fukushima.  Fusion reactors are not the answer either.  I think this road is a dead end.  The dirty reactors (cheaper GE design - plutonium fuel) will burn for 20K years.  Japan(and the world for that matter) is lucky the reactors have bored their way into the earth.  If that burns on the surface (spent rods), we are all in trouble as we do not have the technology to put the plutonium fire out or contain it.  In my opinion, the risks outweigh everything in every category.  I think we have been damned lucky so far here, and so has France.  Disclaimer:  I'm not a nuclear scientist, but I did stay at a holiday in express once or twice.....
Just had some pea sized hail here in NW CT.  Holding steady in the low 40's.  Forecast now shows only 1-3 inches of snow....models have shifted again I guess.
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186. MrNatural
4:53 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 161. civEngineer:


Can you give a informed support for the "causes lots of problems in the real world" statement?


Three Mile Island, Fukushima and Chernobyl are all nuclear power plants that have caused real world problems.
Indian Point outside of NYC continues to leak radioactive matter

On the otherhand, nuclear waste from plants that are operating properly continues to be a major and expensive problem.
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185. slavicthunder
4:52 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
I still like the trifecta of natural gas-solar-hydro...at least up here in Canada. Natural gas is cheap and abundant, the plants can be constructed relatively quickly, and you can fire up the gas turbines when the sun is down. Plenty of undeveloped hydro potential in BC, Manitoba and Quebec...but the environmental concerns grow larger as you increase nameplate capacity of these hydro plants. Also there are friction-loss issues with transporting power from remote hydro sites to population centers...even with HVDC technology. Also worth mentioning...the same subsurface technology applied to natural gas extraction can apply to geothermal development as well. A quadrifecta?
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184. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:48 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
183. civEngineer
4:46 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 179. hydrus:

Good morning Civ..Fusion reactors are likely going to be more of a reality sooner than some people realize...Nuclear plants that exist now could be made much safer than the designs of the past, but fusion should be here before they start building multi billion dollar conventional nuclear power plants...jmo

If cold fusion can be perfected that would be the ultimate solution, best of all worlds!
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182. Sfloridacat5
4:44 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 174. PedleyCA:


No fog in Central Valley ..... this image will change .... know any decent image hosting sites to use?



I remember in Corpus Chrisit on hot early Spring days (90 degrees outside and sunny) we'd head out to the beach (usually around this time of the year). But when we got out to the beach it would be about 70 degrees with thick fog.
It happened a lot when it would be about 90 degrees outside (just inland) while the Gulf of Mexico was still chilly (around 65 degrees or so).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
181. Patrap
4:43 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 174. PedleyCA:


No fog in Central Valley ..... this image will change .... know any decent image hosting sites to use?



free image hosting
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180. wunderkidcayman
4:43 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 167. JRRP7:

Oh!



Nah
LDEO is high
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179. hydrus
4:40 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 173. civEngineer:


You forgot Three Mile Island. Fukishima is an example of poor fail safes; Three Mile Island and Chernobyl are examples from the pioneering age of nuclear power and poor design. In the 60 odd years of nuclear power the three are the biggest events. Of which I will add only Chernobyl has resulted in anyone dying (so far). Other than these three, the world including the US has been successfully and safely using nuclear power. Take a look at France's pollution output where they use nuclear to produce 80% of their power, and tell me why we shouldn't emulate that.
Good morning Civ..Fusion reactors are likely going to be more of a reality sooner than some people realize...Nuclear plants that exist now could be made much safer than the designs of the past, but fusion should be here before they start building multi billion dollar conventional nuclear power plants...jmo
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178. civEngineer
4:38 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 177. justmehouston:



I grew up around David Besse and was always wary of it. There have been cancer clusters and there has also been an uptick in MS. Have you seen pictures of the freakish fruit and vegetables in the Fukishima plant area?
Nuclear power shouldnt be just placed everywhere - same reason my company has our data center in Arizona, to offset chances of weather related events.

And I do agree, we should research what France does and see if similar measures can be taken here


yeah do a little more research on those pictures, they seem to be a hoax
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177. justmehouston
4:31 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 173. civEngineer:


You forgot Three Mile Island. Fukishima is an example of poor fail safes; Three Mile Island and Chernobyl are examples from the pioneering age of nuclear power and poor design. In the 60 odd years of nuclear power the three are the biggest events. Of which I will add only Chernobyl has resulted in anyone dying (so far). Other than these three, the world including the US has been successfully and safely using nuclear power. Take a look at France's pollution output where they use nuclear to produce 80% of their power, and tell me why we shouldn't emulate that.


I grew up around David Besse and was always wary of it. There have been cancer clusters and there has also been an uptick in MS. Have you seen pictures of the freakish fruit and vegetables in the Fukishima plant area?
Nuclear power shouldnt be just placed everywhere - same reason my company has our data center in Arizona, to offset chances of weather related events.

And I do agree, we should research what France does and see if similar measures can be taken here
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176. PedleyCA
4:30 PM GMT on March 18, 2016

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175. Geoclimat
4:26 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Lamap Malekula (Vanuatu): max. 37.2C, 10 February = New National Record High for Vanuatu
Aneityum (Vanuatu): max 34.8C, 9 February

www.facebook.com/geoclimat.org/
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174. PedleyCA
4:25 PM GMT on March 18, 2016

No fog in Central Valley ..... this image will change .... know any decent image hosting sites to use?
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173. civEngineer
4:23 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 166. justmehouston:



Fukishima? Chernobyl?

You forgot Three Mile Island. Fukishima is an example of poor fail safes; Three Mile Island and Chernobyl are examples from the pioneering age of nuclear power and poor design. In the 60 odd years of nuclear power the three are the biggest events. Of which I will add only Chernobyl has resulted in anyone dying (so far). Other than these three, the world including the US has been successfully and safely using nuclear power. Take a look at France's pollution output where they use nuclear to produce 80% of their power, and tell me why we shouldn't emulate that.
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172. Naga5000
4:20 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 154. civEngineer:


Not specific to anyone but an observation of the general theme of point to the problem and ignoring or even disparaging the most practical solutions. In the interest of spurning debate, I'd love to get your take on both of those forms of energy though.


I think both hydroelectric and nuclear are valid options to speed up the transition to renewables as soon as possible. They both come with their own concerns and issues. Spent fuel disposal being a major for nuclear as well as the current issues like FPL's nuclear plant canal leaking into Biscaine Bay, the environmental concerns of uranium mining, nuclear proliferation, nuclear terrorism, etc. These make nuclear a questionable long term solution. The main concern of man made CO2 is of course greatly lessened, but there is still major concerns for localized environmental impacts which bring their own set of challenges. Hydroelectric alos hast a host of environmental concerns at the local level, including wildlife threats and land use changes.
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171. cRRKampen
4:19 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 150. civEngineer:



Funny how the guardians of undenied science are often the first to deny the science and proven record of hydroelectric and nuclear power as the cleanest and safest form of energy, both of which coincidentally don't require fiscal suicide or authoritarian control.

Really. Corporations/corporate states will kill for hydro and have done so. Missed this one, I guess, as just one of the latest examples: Fellow Honduran activist Nelson García murdered days after Berta Cáceres
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
170. Sfloridacat5
4:18 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 159. PedleyCA:


Foggy here this morning, just starting to clear now....   this image will change



Pretty cool image showing hundreds of miles of coastal fog, in addition to the fog that formed in the central valley. That's a very large scale setup.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
169. justmehouston
4:14 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 160. MahFL:

Who is collating the hurricane forecast numbers ?


That would be our very own "Mad Max", and we love him for all his efforts in putting the list together.
He'll be posting his site once he gets ready to do it
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168. ChiThom
4:14 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 161. civEngineer:


Can you give a informed support for the "causes lots of problems in the real world" statement?

Sorry, civ. I could if I had time. Someone else will chime-in for your edification, I'm quite certain.
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167. JRRP7
4:12 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Oh!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
166. justmehouston
4:09 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 161. civEngineer:


Can you give a informed support for the "causes lots of problems in the real world" statement?


Fukishima? Chernobyl?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
165. Naga5000
4:08 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 129. Sandy82579:

NOAA also says - "The %u201Cpause%u201D in global warming observed since 2000 followed a period of rapid acceleration in the late 20th century. Starting in the mid-1970s, global temperatures rose 0.5 C over a period of 25 years. Since the turn of the century, however, the change in Earth%u2019s global mean surface temperature has been close to zero. Yet despite the halt in acceleration, each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth%u2019s surface than any preceding decade since 1850."

It's here:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/ why-did-earth%E2%80%99s-surface-temperature-stop-r ising-past-decade

So once again, short term weather variations do not make a case for global warming.


Surface temperature is a poor metric of measuring global warming in it's entirety considering most of the warming goes into the oceans which showed no pause over that same time period, and continued an unabated increase, don't you think? A temporary pause in the increase of surface warming over such a short time period is indicative of very little. Since 1997, global temps have been rising at the rate of:


GISS 1.55C/Cen
HADCRUT 4 1.07C/Cen
NOAA 1.36C/Cen

That's no pause, that's no hiatus, that was called too short of a time period to get a discernible trend. That's called impatience and bad statistics. We don't need short term weather to make the case for global warming, we have empirical evidence and measurements that confirm the effect of CO2 as a greenhouse gas.
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164. Patrap
4:07 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
nuclear power dangers facts



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163. justmehouston
4:06 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 154. civEngineer:


Not specific to anyone but an observation of the general theme of point to the problem and ignoring or even disparaging the most practical solutions. In the interest of spurning debate, I'd love to get your take on both of those forms of energy though.


I'm kind of on-board with this comment, I love to see discussion about solutions. I get excited when I run across an article about people attempting to find a way to "use" this extra carbon (responsibly). It's here, we need to find ways to use it without doing further damage to our environment. I get nervous when I hear about throwing money at the problem, like the US saying that they will contribute millions/billions of dollars. If we are going to spend that type of money then I would like to see what that money will be used for. Love to see the business plan including ROI. We constantly throw money at issues and not getting much of a return. War on drugs? Common core? No child left behind? I'm all for spending money, but we need to spend it conscientiously.
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162. Patrap
4:05 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Upon us all, a lil rain must fall, jus a lil rain..

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161. civEngineer
4:04 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 158. ChiThom:


The most practical solutions seem to be wind and photovoltaics. Hydro is excellent, but not available everywhere. Nuclear causes lots of problems in the real world. Just my informed opinion. :-p

Can you give a informed support for the "causes lots of problems in the real world" statement?
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160. MahFL
4:02 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Who is collating the hurricane forecast numbers ?
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159. PedleyCA
3:59 PM GMT on March 18, 2016

Foggy here this morning, just starting to clear now....   this image will change
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158. ChiThom
3:54 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 154. civEngineer:


Not specific to anyone but an observation of the general theme of point to the problem and ignoring or even disparaging the most practical solutions. In the interest of spurning debate, I'd love to get your take on both of those forms of energy though.

The most practical solutions seem to be wind and photovoltaics. Hydro is excellent, but not available everywhere. Nuclear causes lots of problems in the real world. Just my informed opinion. :-p
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
157. OKsky
3:51 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 129. Sandy82579:

NOAA also says - "The “pause” in global warming observed since 2000 followed a period of rapid acceleration in the late 20th century. Starting in the mid-1970s, global temperatures rose 0.5 °C over a period of 25 years. Since the turn of the century, however, the change in Earth’s global mean surface temperature has been close to zero. Yet despite the halt in acceleration, each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850."

It's here:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/ why-did-earth%E2%80%99s-surface-temperature-stop-r ising-past-decade

So once again, short term weather variations do not make a case for global warming.


How many times do you have to make this point each year? Would you say making this "point" over and over again has been a trend you have observed?

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156. ACSeattle
3:39 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 140. NativeSun:

Why is everyone on the climate change bandwagon using such a very, very short time scale to cry the sky is falling. These cycles have happened in the past with higher CO2 levels, so why will it not happen again, it's just this time the humans are present to record it, and not tree rings or ice cores. Also we have not been using satellites to record the temps for the last 165 yrs. These warming and cooling cycles the Earth has experienced in the past are caused by other factors, then just CO2. Man has contributed to increasing the CO2 levels in the atmosphere , but how much of the temp changes are caused solely by man made CO2? If you want to tax someone, tax the people and companies that are pouring all their pollutants into our waters and air, at least that is something we can control, and would also greatly benefit the environment, thus helping everyone out, except the polluters.

One hallmark of good science is that it is quite conservative, in the sense that hypotheses are based on solid observation and the validity of these hypotheses is determined by subsequent observation. Solid data about the temperature of the Earth's surface is available only from the latter part of the 19th century forward. Prior to this, direct measurement of temperature was either non-existant or, at best, regional. Proxy data, whether from tree rings or ice cores or estimates of surface temperatures derived from satellite measurements, is clearly less reliable than direct measurement. Therefore, theories based on proxy data must be viewed with a degree of suspicion.
Measurements made before 1900 showed that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was increasing. In the 1950s, regular measurements of atmospheric CO2 began on Mauna Loa, and we all know the record of these measurements. By the 1980s, atmospheric scientists began saying that because of the way CO2 interacts with solar radiation, the increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere would result in increasing temperatures at the Earth's surface.
Since then, direct measurements of temperatures at the Earth's surface have shown an increase in these temperatures.
So, we are confronted with a theory, based on atmospheric physics, that is supported by 30 years of observation. The conservative bias of science requires that this theory be accepted.
It is inescapable that the conclusions of this theory, with respect to the future of the human race, are grim. It is inescapable that our present economic, social, and political systems are totally incapable of dealing effectively with the challenges of AGW. To argue that if AGW were true, then our societies would have to be radically restructured, therefore AGW is false, is not helpful.
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155. MahFL
3:34 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Lake Shasta, CA continues to fill :

86% of Total Capacity
110% of Historical Avg. For This Date
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154. civEngineer
3:34 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 151. Naga5000:



I don't think that was meant to be directed at me. That is a big assumption about myself personally, and a large overgeneralization of the positions of many advocates of science and scientists. While there is certainly a debate and concern about the use of nuclear, that broad notion of denial is very incorrect.

Not specific to anyone but an observation of the general theme of point to the problem and ignoring or even disparaging the most practical solutions. In the interest of spurning debate, I'd love to get your take on both of those forms of energy though.
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153. RobertWC
3:32 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 150. civEngineer:



Funny how the guardians of undenied science are often the first to deny the science and proven record of hydroelectric and nuclear power as the cleanest and safest form of energy, both of which coincidentally don't require fiscal suicide or authoritarian control.


authoritarian control.

Who exactly moved all those Chinese peasants to build the Three Gorges Dam ?

nuclear power as the cleanest and safest form of energy,

See the 3 melted reactors in Japan

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152. hydrus
3:24 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Today is the 81st anniversary of the Great Tri State Tornado.. Deadliest tornado ever in the U.S...Link

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
151. Naga5000
3:22 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 150. civEngineer:



Funny how the guardians of undenied science are often the first to deny the science and proven record of hydroelectric and nuclear power as the cleanest and safest form of energy, both of which coincidentally don't require fiscal suicide or authoritarian control.


I don't think that was meant to be directed at me. That is a big assumption about myself personally, and a large overgeneralization of the positions of many advocates of science and scientists. While there is certainly a debate and concern about the use of nuclear, that broad notion of denial is very incorrect.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
150. civEngineer
3:16 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 141. Naga5000:



Gibberish and nonsense. We have repeatedly linked you to the science that answers these concerns. The real issue here is economic motivated reasoning which allows you the convenience of denying science.


Funny how the guardians of undenied science are often the first to deny the science and proven record of hydroelectric and nuclear power as the cleanest and safest form of energy, both of which coincidentally don't require fiscal suicide or authoritarian control.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
149. RobertWC
3:15 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Seabird die-off takes twist with carcasses in Alaska lake

Murres occasionally land in fresh water, Piatt said.

"You figure it's a misguided individual. To have 6,000, 8,000 birds in the lake is pretty mind-blowing, really," he said. "I've never heard of any such a thing anywhere in the world."

Abnormal numbers of dead common murres, all apparently starved, began washing ashore on Alaska beaches in March 2015. After late-December storms, 8,000 were found at the Prince William Sound community of Whittier. The confirmed carcass count is now up to 36,000, but most don't wash ashore. Also, Alaska has more coastline than the rest of the United States put together and relatively few beaches have been surveyed.


Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
148. Grothar
3:06 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 131. rmbjoe1954:

Hi Gro-

David Dilley of Global Weather oscillations says the US will get 11 tropical cyclone hits in 2016/2017 - the most since 2004/2005. There are 4 hot spots. I wonder where Florida/Louisiana/Texas/Carolinas fit in these?

What say you?


Above average season. And hot!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
147. RobertWC
3:05 PM GMT on March 18, 2016


The PMD rainfall statement shows unprecedented rainfall so far in March this year.

During the sixteen days from March 1 to March 16, Islamabad received 149mm against the normal 87.7mm; Faisalabad 126.1mm against 92.4mm; Jhelum 98.3mm against 65.9mm; Sialkot 87.1mm against 52.8mm; Sargodha 133.1mm against 32.4mm and Mandi Bahauddin 122mm against 33.9mm.

Bannu has received 59mm against 29.8mm; Kotli (AJK) 130mm against 128.5mm; Rawalakot 230.1mm against 165.8mm; Cherat 185mm against 90.5mm and Malam Jabba 284mm against 76.4mm.


Link
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146. RobertWC
3:04 PM GMT on March 18, 2016


Drought Doubles South African Potato Prices to Record High

The nation last year suffered its lowest rainfall since records began in 1904, cutting output of crops such as grains, wine grapes and peanuts. Farmers in potato-producing provinces such as Limpopo, which has the biggest output, the Free State and the North West need rain to fill boreholes and dams.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
145. ChiThom
3:01 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Welcome to the anthropocene era.
It has been a very warm February, and now I know that we are not alone; it's the whole world!
After a much warmer than average winter, we are returning to average temperatures here today in Chicagoland. We might even get a little wet snow on top of the muddy ground in the next couple of days. It's 41° F. at 10:00 a.m. and the solar collectors are heating that side of the house up to 75° already. Free heat.
The lilacs are leafing-out. The daffodils are twelve inches high and ready to flower. The magnolia buds are swelling. I don't think the freezing temperatures will hurt them this year, if it gets down to 27° or so.
Palm Sunday is this weekend, on the first day of spring.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
144. CTSkywatcher
2:48 PM GMT on March 18, 2016

Quoting 143. cRRKampen:


Between 110 and 120%.
Naturally it should be cooling, you see. But oh well, you talk magic cycles without knowing what you are talking about at all.


Indeed, for all of the "knowledge" of earth cycles, it's puzzling that this fact - that we are headed towards a "glacial maximum" instead of away from it, is omitted.  
Looks like snow for southern New England, possibly the largest amount this "winter".  Gotta love March!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
143. cRRKampen
2:21 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 140. NativeSun:

Man has contributed to increasing the CO2 levels in the atmosphere , but how much of the temp changes are caused solely by man made CO2?

Between 110 and 120%.
Naturally it should be cooling, you see. But oh well, you talk magic cycles without knowing what you are talking about at all.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
142. NativeSun
2:00 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 135. ariot:



Yeah. I won't accept the facts either, until we all burst into flame.
No need to worry about that for a few billion years or when the sun turns into a Red Giant, and destroys the inner planets, or if their is a large meteor strike, or nuclear war.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
141. Naga5000
1:59 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 140. NativeSun:

why is everyone on the climate change bandwagon using such a very, very short time scale to cry the sky is falling. These cycles have happened in the past with higher CO2 levels, so why will it not happen again, it's just this time the humans are present to record it, and not tree rings or ice cores. Also we have not been using satellites to record the temps for the last 165 yrs. These warming and cooling cycles the Earth has experienced in the past are caused by other factors, then just CO2. Man has contributed to increasing the CO2 levels in the atmosphere , but how much of the temp changes are caused solely by man made CO2? If you want to tax someone, tax the people and companies that are pouring all their pollutants into our waters and air, at least that is something we can control, and would also greatly benefit the environment, thus helping everyone out, except the polluters.


Gibberish and nonsense. We have repeatedly linked you to the science that answers these concerns. The real issue here is economic motivated reasoning which allows you the convenience of denying science.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
140. NativeSun
1:54 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 128. weathermanwannabe:



But one single event (or non-event) does not show the complete picture.........................

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/global-temps.sh tml


Earth%u2019s 2015 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880, according to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), as reported onNASA%u2019s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) website. The record-breaking year continues a long-term warming trend %u2014 15 of the 16 warmest years on record have now occurred since 2001.


2015 global temperature anomaly
Why is everyone on the climate change bandwagon using such a very, very short time scale to cry the sky is falling. These cycles have happened in the past with higher CO2 levels, so why will it not happen again, it's just this time the humans are present to record it, and not tree rings or ice cores. Also we have not been using satellites to record the temps for the last 165 yrs. These warming and cooling cycles the Earth has experienced in the past are caused by other factors, then just CO2. Man has contributed to increasing the CO2 levels in the atmosphere , but how much of the temp changes are caused solely by man made CO2? If you want to tax someone, tax the people and companies that are pouring all their pollutants into our waters and air, at least that is something we can control, and would also greatly benefit the environment, thus helping everyone out, except the polluters.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
139. rmbjoe1954
1:53 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 136. ricderr:



LOL...is this the same david dilley that said global cooling started in 2008.....

and i also remember that years ago....when someone brought up his claims of being 100 percent right the year before of tropical predictions....actual research showed he was almost completely wrong....

anyways...he would make an excellent blogger


Hi Ric-

Dilley would clearly spark life on this blog. I wouldn't think he'd last one month into hurricane season though. lol.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
138. JRRP7
1:34 PM GMT on March 18, 2016
Quoting 133. ricderr:



Hey paul...nice first post.....i wanted to address some of the things you've said in your first post.......

i don't think anyone without being tongue in cheek expects a strong la nina...i think some might hope for it......but i've seen no one pose any evidence for a strong event.....

as for the pdo in a positive phase...we've had three strong la nina's...and they have all transpired when the pdo is negative....so the chance of a strong event by climatology would be negligible......

now while i also agree that there is a lag in atmospheric response time as to the affects of el nino/la nina.....if you trust the model consensus...we may very well see neutral conditions in the april/may time frame.....that means that during the peak of the season the atmospheric conditions will be more conducive to hurricane development and if some models are again to be trusted...the end of the season may very well be affected (slight chance) by la nina conditions..

i would also say...that last year with conditions of moderate and strong el nino we still managed to eek out an average season of named storms...even though the intensity was below average.....

+1
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather