Floods From up to 20 Inches of Rain Create State of Emergency in Louisiana

By: Jeff Masters , 4:22 PM GMT on March 11, 2016

A state of emergency has been declared by Governor John Bel Edwards for the entire state of Louisiana after a four-day deluge of rain dumped up to 20" of rain over northern portions of the state. The resulting record flooding has forced a call-up of the National Guard to help evacuate thousands of people from their homes. Five storm-related deaths have been reported since Monday--three in Louisiana and one each in Oklahoma and Texas. Hundreds of roads have been closed, including portions of two major interstate highways. One bridge collapsed on Louisiana Highway 557 in Ouchita Parish.


Figure 1. A bridge collapsed on Louisiana Highway 557 in Ouchita Parish, Louisiana, on March 10, 2016. Image credit: Louisiana DOTD.


Figure 2. Satellite-derived Integrated Water Vapor (the total amount of rain, in centimeters, that would result from condensing all water vapor in a column of air) as of 7 am EST March 11, 2016. Two "atmospheric rivers" of water vapor are seen affecting the U.S.--one from the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean flowing across Mexico into the Southern U.S., and one extending from the tropics south of Hawaii to the coast of California. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.


Figure 3. Observed 72-hour precipitation for the period ending at 10 am EST Friday, March 11, 2016. Portions of northern Louisiana received over 20" of rain, and a large area of 8+" fell over portions of Eastern Texas, Northern Louisiana, Southeast Arkansas and Northwest Mississippi. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

An upper-level low tapping an atmospheric river of moisture was responsible
The upper low over Mexico responsible for the deluge was able to tap into an atmospheric river of moisture from both the Western Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific, and was still bringing record amounts of water vapor to the Gulf Coast on Friday morning. The 7 am EST Friday March 11, 2016 upper-air balloon sounding from Jackson, MS set a new record for most precipitable water on record for any day during the December - March period: 1.97". New Orleans, LA set a record on Friday morning for most precipitable water of any astronomical winter date: 2.14". The record atmospheric moisture this week has led to rainfall amounts one would expect to occur only once every 200 years (a 0.5% chance of occurrence in a given year) over portions of northern Louisiana. According to the latest NOAA Storm Summary, as of 9 am EST Friday, a rain gauge two miles from the city of Monroe, Louisiana had received 20.90" of rain since Monday, and Shreveport, Louisiana had picked up 19.00" at Barksdale Air Force Base. Over a foot of rain was recorded at several locations in Southern Arkansas.


Figure 4. Total Precipitable Water over Jackson, Mississippi from 1948 - 2016, with the record amount from 7 am EST Friday March 11, 2016 shown. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.


Figure 5. The Sabine River near Burkeville, Louisiana reached its highest water level on record Friday morning, beating the previous record set in February 1999 by over five feet. Water levels for this gauge go back to 1884. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 6. VIIRS satellite imagery from Thursday afternoon, March 10, 2016, shows the record-strength upper-level low centered over central Mexico that brought torrential rains and record flooding to Louisiana. Image credit: NASA.

Record warmth continues across the Northeast
As if Wednesday’s high of 77°F left any doubt that spring had sprung early in New York City, Thursday doubled up with a high of 79°F.  This broke the previous day’s record as the warmest temperature ever notched so early in the year in 145 years of record-keeping at Central Park. Even more impressive was Thursday’s “low” temperature: a ridiculous 63°F! That’s the warmest daily minimum Central Park has seen during any winter--or for that matter, on any date falling between November 10 and March 28--since measurements began in 1871. For maximum shock value, we can employ Thursday’s average temperature of 71°F [calculated by adding the daily high and low and dividing by 2]. A reading like this would be most likely to occur in New York during late June or late August. The latest such reading in Central Park annals is 71°F on November 2, 1971; the record-earliest value this warm was 71.5°F on March 28, 1998. Many other record highs were again set across the Northeast on Thursday, just a day after dozens of cities set records for the hottest temperatures on record for so early in the year. A weak front will push temperatures back near normal this weekend, but only briefly, before another spell of warmth kicks in next week across most of the central and eastern U.S.

The forecast: more flooding in the South
Thankfully, the stalled-out record-strength upper-level low pressure system responsible for the historic flooding is finally on the move, headed northwards across Texas. The low will still be tapping into the atmospheric river of moisture responsible for this week's heavy rains, and will bring additional widespread heavy rains of 2 - 5" over the Central Gulf Coast states through Saturday, with a few areas up to 10" possible. By Sunday, the heavy rains should end as the upper-level low weakens and the flow of moisture from the Gulf gets cut off.


Figure 7. Predicted precipitation for the 2-day period ending 7 am EST Sunday, March 13, 2016. Heavy rains in excess of 5" are expected over coastal Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana, including New Orleans. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Heavy rains and high winds hit U.S. West Coast
Meanwhile, another storm system with its own atmospheric river of moisture has been hitting the U.S. West Coast, bringing flooding rains and heavy mountain snows to California. Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph swept across much of Washington State on Thursday, causing some impressive damage and knocking out power to 100,000 customers. According to the NWS in Seattle, the top wind gust was 109 mph on top of Mt. Baker.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a post on how the upper-level low over Mexico was not truly a "cut-off" low like we called it in previous posts, but rather a "closed low."

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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352. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
7:47 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
350. HurricaneFan
7:37 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 348. Andrebrooks:

cfs is crazy.

I agree. CFS is showing well below normal SSTs in the equatorial Atlantic at initialization, which is not the case at all. In addition, there simply is no warm water to fuel El Niño underneath. Sorry CFS followers and El Nino fans.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
349. tiggerhurricanes2001
7:34 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 347. Llamaluvr:

Not so sure on the dissipation. The CFS that Scott posted seems to indicate that El Nino continuing is a strong possibility.

I don't agree with the CFS , or Scott Very unlikely for another el nino to develop. It clearly has initialization problems. It's your opinion, not mine.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
348. Andrebrooks
7:33 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 347. Llamaluvr:

Not so sure on the dissipation. The CFS that Scott posted seems to indicate that El Nino continuing is a strong possibility.
cfs is crazy.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
347. Llamaluvr
7:32 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 320. tiggerhurricanes2001:


This seems very possible. This el nino's dissipation rate has started to increase. I think a good analog for numbers would be 2008, or 2004.
Not so sure on the dissipation. The CFS that Scott posted seems to indicate that El Nino continuing is a strong possibility.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
346. Andrebrooks
7:20 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 345. tiggerhurricanes2001:


What's your numbers again Malik.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
345. tiggerhurricanes2001
7:14 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
344. Andrebrooks
7:08 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Me and Kori thinks that the MJO will come in during May or June and bring a TS OR CAT Q hurricane to the gulf coast.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
343. bwi
6:52 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Thanks for posting the SST anomaly maps. Doesn't that just imply an explosive potential for heat transfer from the equator toward the temperate zones and poles? You know, the sort of things that huge storms that build up in the tropics and turn poleward do? I hope we don't have a bad hurricane season in the
Atlantic, but I fear our time is coming.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
342. KoritheMan
6:46 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Do I need to pull out the Cape Verde hurricane recurvature book again? :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
341. Climate175
6:42 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
This is the current Atlantic Satellite, not much going on yet obviously, considering it is only March.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
340. Climate175
6:39 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 339. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Wow, robust waves already.
This is from August 16th of last year, although I believe the waves will be just about as robust as last year.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
339. tiggerhurricanes2001
6:35 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 337. Climate175:

If we get these very robust waves coming across the MDR , then it will be interesting with how things are shaping up. Caribbean still has relatively low wind shear, so it could be in play this year.

Wow, robust waves already.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
338. Tazmanian
6:32 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 334. Bucsboltsfan:



Except for those that might be living inside that tornado box.


So ture
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
337. Climate175
6:30 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
If we get these very robust waves coming across the MDR , then it will be interesting with how things are shaping up. Caribbean still has relatively low wind shear, so it could be in play this year.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
336. tiggerhurricanes2001
6:26 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 332. CybrTeddy:

This is to be expected with an a fairly strong El Nino still in place, but this is what killed the Cape Verde seasons the last three seasons. If 2016 is to be active, vertical instability must be at least near climatological norms as we approach the meat of the season.




Hopefully SAL will be outta the way as well.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
335. Patrap
6:25 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
I rarely pay attention to any Groups "Hurricane Forecast".

Number one, they cant say when nor where.

The best and only hedge bet is preparation.

Having a Hurricane Plan,Evac destination and supplies if staying is critical for anyone in Cane prone areas.

Every year brings the chance of a Major.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
333. tiggerhurricanes2001
6:19 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 330. MAweatherboy1:

I've been working on my hurricane season forecast write-up. It's pretty early to be doing such but I've got some extra time this week (spring break), and in my head I've got a pretty good feel for how I think the season will go down, although it's a much harder forecast than the past 2 years. Gotta take a shot at it though at least.

Wow, i agree. So many factors at play, especially this el nino dissipation. In addition, wether we are still in a warm AMO phase. Will you post it on your blog?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
332. CybrTeddy
6:14 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
This is to be expected with an a fairly strong El Nino still in place, but this is what killed the Cape Verde seasons the last three seasons. If 2016 is to be active, vertical instability must be at least near climatological norms as we approach the meat of the season.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
331. 62901IL
6:11 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
@329-Tazmanian--I think it is. You are entitled to your own opinion. And no, I will not stop it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
330. MAweatherboy1
6:09 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
I've been working on my hurricane season forecast write-up. It's pretty early to be doing such but I've got some extra time this week (spring break), and in my head I've got a pretty good feel for how I think the season will go down, although it's a much harder forecast than the past 2 years. Gotta take a shot at it though at least.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
329. Tazmanian
6:08 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 327. 62901IL:

YYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 41
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST OK
ALONG A WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POTEAU OKLAHOMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.




Ok you can stop with that there nothing really too get excited about for a tornado watch
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
328. CybrTeddy
6:08 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 306. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Yea, CSU had to find more money for research funds after that big of a bust. Actual Activity was 13,2,0, and everyone predicted nearly 20 storms. This was mainly due in part toa significant weakening of the AMO, and a persistent positive NAO.


I found memories of that season. Namely they all involve napping but...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
327. 62901IL
6:05 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
YYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 41
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST OK
ALONG A WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POTEAU OKLAHOMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
326. 62901IL
6:03 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
YEAH!



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE TX...CNTRL/SRN AR...NE/N-CNTRL LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131801Z - 131930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...FAST-MOVING SUPERCELL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
20-21Z. ALL SVR THREATS ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL
/GREATER THAN 2 INCHES/ AND A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. TORNADO WATCH
LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...INCREASING CU FIELD ACROSS NE TX IS INDICATIVE OF
INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AMIDST THE DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
CNTRL OK. AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXPECTED BEFORE 20Z.

ONCE INITIATION OCCURS...STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR LIKELY ABOVE 50 KT/ AND MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND
1000 J PER KG/ WILL SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SVR
THREATS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES AND/OR
STRONG TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL SVR THREAT.

..MOSIER/HART.. 03/13/2016


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33279128 32869203 32759271 32639372 32589423 32599452
32649475 33019482 33359459 33779417 34789249 34739158
33979120 33279128

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
325. tiggerhurricanes2001
6:00 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Current March SOI VALUES. Current daily value for March 13, 2016 is 4.80.
1 Mar 2016 1005.30 1011.00 -46.90 -19.99 -17.00
2 Mar 2016 1007.02 1010.60 -36.80 -21.08 -16.88
3 Mar 2016 1010.38 1011.55 -25.20
-22.15 -16.83
4 Mar 2016 1012.10 1010.05 -9.80 -22.77 -16.72
5 Mar 2016 1011.86 1009.00 -5.90 -22.97 -16.64
6 Mar 2016 1012.14 1008.75 -3.40 -23.00 -16.54
7 Mar 2016 1012.85 1008.70 0.10 -22.94 -16.39
8 Mar 2016 1013.60 1008.15 6.40 -22.84 -16.15
9 Mar 2016 1014.15 1008.05 9.50 -22.33 -15.80
10 Mar 2016 1014.01 1010.00 -0.40 -22.12 -15.59
11 Mar 2016 1013.81 1009.65 0.20 -22.13 -15.45
12 Mar 2016 1013.24 1008.60 2.50 -22.35 -15.37
13 Mar 2016 1012.88 1007.75 4.80 -22.28 -15.26
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
324. 62901IL
5:56 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
And so it begins!!!!!!!!!!!



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131735Z - 131830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON ACROSS
ECNTRL/SERN OK. LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON.

DISCUSSION...EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS SHIFTING ACROSS OK TOWARD
WRN AR. COMPACT CYCLONE WITH WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT HAS DEVELOPED
OVER SCNTRL OK. BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING ACROSS
SCNTRL OK WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM. CU
FIELD IS EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW
OVER PONTOTOC COUNTY AND ROBUST VERTICAL UPDRAFTS SHOULD MATURE INTO
TSTMS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED AND LARGE
HAIL IS LIKELY. IN ADDITION...A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.

..DARROW/HART.. 03/13/2016


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 33929503 34569636 35369615 35389472 34859378 34129358
33669401 33929503
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
323. Qazulight
5:50 PM GMT on March 13, 2016


We got another 6 feet to go. We will not see the peak in Deweyville until Tuesday. By the way, I am in Sioux Falls, I just have relatives in Buna that are helping in Deweyville.

Qazulight
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
322. KoritheMan
5:49 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Also, gonna make a longer-range climatological forecast and say that there are above-average odds of getting a June storm in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico. This is based on the idea that as El Nino gradually weakens, it'll exert enough influence to keep the southern stream trough active, with the main longwave possibly shifting northwest of where it is now by the start of the hurricane season as the jet stream begins its annual northward retreat. This will keep rising heights (high pressure) over the East, which is a favorable configuration for tropical cyclogenesis in the western Atlantic.

All climatological. Don't blame if something doesn't go right. ;)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
321. Qazulight
5:44 PM GMT on March 13, 2016



Ok, it might be an exaggeration. But hey! It's Texas!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
320. tiggerhurricanes2001
5:44 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 318. KoritheMan:

On the subject of hurricane season predictions, it depends on the state of the AMO. In either event I think we'll have a decent season, at least average and possibly quite a bit above average. Right now I'm thinking something like:

Cold AMO: 11/7/3, ACE of 120
Warm AMO: 17/9/5, ACE of 170

The season's likely to start off slow due to the lingering effects of the current El Nino. It's not going to dissipate overnight.

This seems very possible. This el nino's dissipation rate has started to increase. I think a good analog for numbers would be 2008, or 2004.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
319. KoritheMan
5:41 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 315. Patrap:

A welcome sight today.

No clouds, all Sunshine and Wine.

: )




There's clouds in my backyard. Stop lying. :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
318. KoritheMan
5:40 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
On the subject of hurricane season predictions, it depends on the state of the AMO. In either event I think we'll have a decent season, at least average and possibly quite a bit above average. Right now I'm thinking something like:

Cold AMO: 11/7/3, ACE of 120
Warm AMO: 17/9/5, ACE of 170

The season's likely to start off slow due to the lingering effects of the current El Nino. It's not going to dissipate overnight.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
317. LargoFl
5:33 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Stay extra alert this afternoon/evening...be safe folks.........................................PRES ENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY BY MID AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL AR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POSE A RISK
OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z
CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF GREATER CONCERN FOR MORE INTENSE
STORMS AND TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST AR AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST MS. THIS AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE ENHANCED RISK...AND A
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED. STORMS WILL LIKELY
LOSE INTENSITY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS THEY TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN MS AND WEST TN.

..HART.. 03/13/2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
316. Qazulight
5:29 PM GMT on March 13, 2016


Hey, Look at that! First image ever!

This was Hwy 63 at the Sabine River in Texas.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
315. Patrap
5:24 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
A welcome sight today.

No clouds, all Sunshine and Wine.

: )

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
314. washingtonian115
5:24 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
lol!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
313. MAweatherboy1
5:15 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
12z GFS has a late season winter storm early next week for the East Coast. Definitely heading into more of an East Coast trough pattern for the next 1-2 weeks, but only time will tell whether anything significant comes of it. By the start of April, spring should begin in earnest (as it should I guess).

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
312. HurricaneFan
4:58 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 309. FirstCoastMan:

What did 2004 sst anomaly map look like for this time of year,not saying that we are going to have a season like that,or at least I hope not?

The North Atlantic was warmer but the MDR was slightly cooler I think.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
311. Gearsts
4:58 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
310. tiggerhurricanes2001
4:58 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 309. FirstCoastMan:

What did 2004 sst anomaly map look like for this time of year,not saying that we are going to have a season like that,or at least I hope not?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
309. FirstCoastMan
4:55 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
What did 2004 sst anomaly map look like for this time of year,not saying that we are going to have a season like that,or at least I hope not?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
308. Seattleite
4:52 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
It's still raining. I mean, don't get me wrong, I live in Seattle. I like rain. However, if I wanted to live somewhere that gets heavy rain I'd move somewhere with thunder storms. Seriously, even our news outlets are getting rain weary. Given that the National Weather Service declared it Washington's wettest El Nino when we crossed the 37inch last week, you can begin to understand just how odd this is. The last time we had this much rain in March the Oso Landslide occurred during our last wettest winter on record in 2014.

Here are some stats:

Month to date: 3.60 inches of rain, normal is 1.5.
Since Oct 1 (start of water year here) - 41.41 normal is 25.97
Since Jan 1 (arbitrary here but why not) - 17.02 normal is 10.57

We would normally expect measurable rain on roughly 70% of the days in March. So far this year? 100 percent. Oh and our average rainfall for the entire month of March is 3.7 inches...

With this as the set up, now it's time to face some wind.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
307. tiggerhurricanes2001
4:50 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 304. Gearsts:

The importance of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) heat transport for climate is well acknowledged. Climate models predict that the AMOC will slow down under global warming, with substantial impacts, but measurements of ocean circulation have been inadequate to evaluate these predictions. Observations over the past decade have changed that situation, providing a detailed picture of variations in the AMOC. These observations reveal a surprising degree of AMOC variability in terms of the intraannual range, the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle, the interannual changes in strength affecting the ocean heat content, and the decline of the AMOC over the decade, both of the latter two exceeding the variations seen in climate models. Totally not copied from somewhere else. ;)

OMG i was soooo thinking you copied and paste.:-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
306. tiggerhurricanes2001
4:48 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 301. Gearsts:

2013 was a huge fail for everyone.

Yea, CSU had to find more money for research funds after that big of a bust. Actual Activity was 13,2,0, and everyone predicted nearly 20 storms. This was mainly due in part toa significant weakening of the AMO, and a persistent positive NAO.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
305. StAugustineFL
4:44 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 278. HurricaneHunterJoe:


I have had a proper springing!




I work from home and log in early (6:30AM ET). First couple of days after the time change usually kick my butt so I tried a little experiment this year. I moved my clocks (aside from smart phone and laptop) up an hour on Friday afternoon. I've been on DST for 48 hours now. Hopefully no difference in feeling come 6:30AM tomorrow.

In weather news, 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms later. Most recent HRRR precip estimates put around .33 - .75" down in my area. Fingers crossed as it's been quite dry for the past 30 days.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
304. Gearsts
4:44 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 297. tiggerhurricanes2001:


2016 0.247 0.172 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.99 AMO is actually right around where it's supposed to be if you compare it to years like 2005, and 2010. It's supposed to be weakly positive around this time off year. February value is 0.172.
The importance of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) heat transport for climate is well acknowledged. Climate models predict that the AMOC will slow down under global warming, with substantial impacts, but measurements of ocean circulation have been inadequate to evaluate these predictions. Observations over the past decade have changed that situation, providing a detailed picture of variations in the AMOC. These observations reveal a surprising degree of AMOC variability in terms of the intraannual range, the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle, the interannual changes in strength affecting the ocean heat content, and the decline of the AMOC over the decade, both of the latter two exceeding the variations seen in climate models. Totally not copied from somewhere else. ;)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
303. tiggerhurricanes2001
4:42 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 296. Sfloridacat5:



I'm busy doing a group assignment for my online class so I'm to lazy to go check, but didn't CSU's forecast for last year end up being a major bust?
Some times I have to scratch my head and wonder. All that forecasting research time and money that goes into a very bad season prediction.
I predicted 12 storms for last season so I did pretty well.

In 2014, in april they predicted 9,3,1, then in August they predicted 10,4,1, and actual activity was 8,6,2. In April 2015, they predicted 7,3,1, and then in June 8,3,1. Actual activity ended up at 11,4,2. Let's not forget the MDR warmed substantially to record values in 2015. Not that good pf a forecast for both years for me.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
302. 62901IL
4:39 PM GMT on March 13, 2016
Quoting 293. islander101010:

could this be the yr rubio is forced to ask for federal aid for his hurricane thrashed s florida? remember he voted against aid for sandys devastation.


Rubio just needs to drop out of the race. He's not gonna win anything big.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather