Flash Flood Emergency in Northern Lousiana: Over a Foot of Rain in 24 Hours

By: Jeff Masters , 4:26 PM GMT on March 09, 2016

A Flash Flood Emergency has been declared in Northwest Louisiana, including the city of Shreveport, where over a foot of rain fell in just 24 hours, from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. At Shreveports's Barksdale Air Force Base, 13.16" had fallen as of 10 am EST Wednesday, and over 14 inches of rain fell just to the southeast of Shreveport near Bossier City. The heavy rains have led to numerous high water rescues and flooded homes and streets. Near Shreveport, up to 80 homes were flooded and a nursing home had to be evacuated due to rising waters, according to the Associated Press, and evacuations have been ordered in Greenwood, Haughton, Homer, Minden and Rayville, Louisiana. The flooding problems extend into Eastern Texas, where multiple bridges have been washed out northeast of Marlin, Texas. Although the heaviest rains moved out of Eastern Texas and Northern Louisiana late Wednesday morning, near-record levels of atmospheric moisture for this time of year--more than 200% of average--remain in place over the region, and renewed rounds of heavy rain are likely through Friday. Extreme flooding rains were spreading into Southern Arkansas on Wednesday morning, and rainfall amounts of a foot in 24 hours are possible there, as well. Additional major flash flooding over the next few days is also possible in Houston, San Antonio, Austin, Shreveport, Little Rock, Memphis and New Orleans.


Figure 1. Flooding in Bossier Parish, Louisiana on March 9, 2016 submerged some houses up to their roofs. Numerous water rescues were made Tuesday night as high water started to pile up in parts of Louisiana after heavy rainfall. (CBS News Correspondent @DavidBegnaud) 

Although flooding is the major concern from this slow-moving storm system, severe thunderstorms and a few tornadoes are also expected through Thursday in some of the same parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. So, far, the storm had spun up three tornadoes since Monday. An EF1 tornado caused damage near Cool, Texas Monday evening, and an EF1 tornado touched down near Tolar, Texas, southwest of Ft. Worth Tuesday morning. An EF1 tornado also left a narrow path of damage in Stephenville, Texas early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms hit the Ft. Worth, Texas region, with a 66 mph gust at the Ft. Worth Meacham Airport. Baseball size hail pounded Voca, Texas Tuesday evening, while hail to the size of golf balls covered the ground in both Evant and Jonesboro, Texas. Two drowning deaths have been attributed to the storm system: a man in Broken Bow, OK that drove across a flooded bridge and got swept away, and a man in a canoe on Dickinson Bayou near Hwy 3 in Dickinson, TX where the wind blew him into the water. Thanks go to wunderground members RitaEvac and Skyepony for this info.


Figure 2. Storm damage from early Tuesday in Frisco, Texas. (@NTXStrmTrackers/Twitter.com) 

A "cut-off" low is responsible
A large low pressure system (a "cut-off" low) has separated from the jet stream, and will stay parked over the U.S./Mexico border region during the next few days. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low is bringing up plenty of warm, moisture-laden air from the tropics along the east side of the low, causing the heavy rains we've observed. By this weekend, when all of this rain has had time to flow into area rivers, expect to see several rivers crest at near-record flood levels. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are near average over the Gulf of Mexico, which will keep the amount of moisture available to this week's storms lower than would be the case if SSTs were unusually warm. However, the cut-off low has tapped into a moisture source in the deep tropics over the Eastern Pacific where SSTs are record warm. An "atmospheric river" of water vapor can be seen on satellite images extending from the record-warm El Niño-heated waters south of Mexico directly into the Southern U.S. This warm, moist air is very unstable, which will help contribute to severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes over the Southern U.S. today through Friday.


Figure 3. Observed 24-hour precipitation for the period ending at 9 am EST Wednesday, March 9, 2016. Portions of northern Louisiana received over a foot of rain, and a large area of 8+" fell over portions of Eastern Texas and Northern Louisiana. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.


Figure 4. Lots more rain on the way: predicted precipitation for the 3-day period ending 7 am EST Saturday, March 12, 2016. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Jeff Masters

Magical Mammatus Clouds (BlueSkyGrannie)
After all the thundershowers today, the evening sky was alive with mammatus clouds. What a sight to behold.
Magical Mammatus Clouds
Fence Dam (Madermade)
Fence couldn't hold back the flooding pasture. :)
Fence Dam

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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287. vis0
7:45 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
20N 60W (NNE of the top of the Lesser Antilles) not a not deal as to any TS (though for the islands recuperating from last years flood keep an eye out) but so Grothar can practice Grothar's blobetics
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
286. georgevandenberghe
4:58 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 259. washingtonian115:

The temperature has now shot to 76 degrees.I smell a 2012 coming and my car had a coat of pollen on it this morning.My allergies will not quit,so I decided to telework instead.I remember what happened the last time when my allergies were this bad and I was on the train...people stayed away from me like I had the plague.


The GFS has been consistent with a cooldown Friday NEXT week persisting through the rest of the forecast period (3/25 or so). Conditions during that period look normal with cold and mild shots but overall more march-like.

The 2012 March heat was extreme east of the Rockies and much worse in the midwest and middle Plains. DC was far from the hot core and got a lot of northwest flow cold fronts and STILL set a record warm March. This one has the core warm anomalies near us... not as bad heat nationwide by far.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
285. georgevandenberghe
4:54 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 278. VibrantPlanet:

Stu Ostro @StuOstro
Initialization (verification of earlier model fcsts) at 10 (!) standard dev below avg w/cutoff low over Mexico


To say this is an anomalous event would be a bit of an understatement. The odds are 1 in 152,400,000,000,000,000,000,000.

:p



More likely the time series is short and the statistics including standard deviation will implicitly adjust with the inclusion of rare events. This is common with atmospheric variables in time series.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
284. Patrap
4:54 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Over 500 people now being sheltered by the Red Cross in Louisiana.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
282. georgevandenberghe
4:52 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 277. Sfloridacat5:



Pollen count here in Fort Myers, Florida. I had to wash our car that sits outside because it had turned yellow and you could barely see out of the windows.
On a scale (0-12)
Thursday 9.7 (High)
Friday 10.5 (High)
Saturday 10.1 (High)
Link



Pollen problems in Spring in DC are from trees, maple in late February through Oak and various pines in April and early May. Grass starts to become a problem in June and Ragweed August-October. Then there is the winter reprieve.

I'm not allergic. My wife is.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
281. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:51 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
280. RitaEvac
4:51 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Interesting swirl hugging the TX coast just off Galveston

or my mind is playing tricks
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
279. Patrap
4:50 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
746 am CST Thursday Mar 10 2016

..sounding discussion...

The lower atmosphere continues to moisten with a record
precipitable water value for this date/time of 1.76 inches. The
moisture advection is being helped by an impressive low level jet
with a 925 mb wind of 52 knots and a 850 mb wind of 49 knots
/both record values for this date/time/. This is priming the
atmosphere for heavy rainfall.

While the lower levels are moist...there is a quite a bit of dry
air in the middle and upper levels. This has led to a downdraft cape
value of 925 j/kg...which if any stronger showers or
thunderstorms can entrain those low level winds into downdrafts would
result in severe wind gusts reaching the surface. If we get
mixing up to 925mb *outside* of rain/convection...which isn't out
of the question...we could get 50 knots gusts mixing down to the
surface as well. Directional shear exists with southeast winds
near the surface rotating around to blow from the southwest by the
upper levels. Winds increase from about 10 knots at the surface to
50 knots at 925mb as mentioned above. This has yielded very
impressive 0-1km and 0-3km srh values of 500 m2/s2. While a few 
tornadoes remain possible...lapse rates in the low and midlevels 
are not steep and there is a lack of a strong lifting or forcing
mechanism. This should help mitigate against a larger tornado
threat.

12z balloon info: a routine flight reaching a height of 21.1 miles
above the ground after ascending for 97 minutes. The balloon
burst near Carnes 50 miles downrange from the office.

Ansorge

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 402 am CST Thursday Mar 10 2016/

Short term...

The most significant change in thinking concerns the potential for
heavier rains to linger into the afternoon hours on Saturday. All
of the guidance continues to show strong forcing and high mean west
values of 14 to 15 g/kg in place from the eastern half of the
forecast area through Saturday afternoon. Given these expected
conditions...have opted to extend the duration of the Flash Flood
Watch until Saturday evening.

It still looks like there will be 
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall impacting the region beginning
later this morning and then continuing through Saturday.

Little change in the forecast thinking has occurred for today and
tomorrow. Today...the heaviest rains should generally be over the
western half of the County Warning Area...west of the I-55 corridor. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 3 inches with some higher amounts could occur over
these areas this afternoon and evening. The band of heavier rain
should then set up for tonight generally between the Atchafalaya
and Pearl rivers. This band of rain should then persist through
the day tomorrow. An additional 3 to 4 inches of rain with
locally higher amounts could impact areas west of Interstate
55...bringing rain totals ot 7 to 10 inches. For areas east of the
I-55 corridor in southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi...including
metropolitan New Orleans...heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with locally
higher amounts over 8 inches could occur tonight and tomorrow.


Outside of the heavy rain threat...there will also continue to be 
a severe threat for today...mainly due to the strong wind shear
in place across the area. This wind shear will be driven by a
strong 40 to 50 knot low level jet parked over the area. As a
result...total shear will be in excess of 50 knots and helicity
values will be around 300 m2/s2 this afternoon. The one negative
to severe thunderstorm development is weaker lapse rates and
overall lower instability across the region due to the highly
saturated airmass in place. Given the lack of colder air
aloft...damaging wind gusts and tornadoes would be the primary
concern with any severe thunderstorms that try to develop today.
The low level jet is expected to weaken heading into tonight and
tomorrow...and the threat of severe weather should also diminish
substantially.


As mentioned earlier...there has been a shift in thinking for 
Friday night and Saturday. The upper level low driving the heavy
rainfall across the area looks to lift out of Mexico slower than
originally expected. As a result...a high moisture content airmass
and strong dynamic forcing will linger over the forecast area
through Saturday afternoon. It looks like the highest probability
areas for heavy rainfall will generally be from metropolitan New Orleans
and the Northshore eastward across the Mississippi Gulf Coast. An
additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with locally higher amounts of
over 6 inches could impact metropolitan New Orleans and Northshore. The
Mississippi coast could easily see 3 to 5 inches of rain as well
with locally higher amounts over 6 inches possible. Storm total
rainfall across the area could vary from 7 to 10 inches for the
Baton Rouge area and Mississippi Gulf Coast to a bullseye of 10
to 14 inches for metropolitan New Orleans and the Northshore by the time
the event is over. All of these totals are highly dependent on
exactly where the heavy rain band develops...and if multiple areas
of heavier rain train over the same location. Significant flooding
issues could arise with this event given the high rainfall totals
expected. With high dewpoints in place...overnights lows will only
cool into the middle to upper 60s tonight and Friday night.
Daytime highs should be somewhat cooler due to the expected
rains...and only have highs in the lower 70s through Saturday.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
278. VibrantPlanet
4:49 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Stu Ostro @StuOstro
Initialization (verification of earlier model fcsts) at 10 (!) standard dev below avg w/cutoff low over Mexico


To say this is an anomalous event would be a bit of an understatement. The odds are 1 in 152,400,000,000,000,000,000,000.

:p
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
277. Sfloridacat5
4:48 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 270. georgevandenberghe:



A warmer pollen season will also be shorter.





Pollen count here in Fort Myers, Florida. I had to wash our car that sits outside because it had turned yellow and you could barely see out of the windows.
On a scale (0-12)
Thursday 9.7 (High)
Friday 10.5 (High)
Saturday 10.1 (High)
Link (at 1:06 in the video the met discusses the pollen)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
276. Patrap
4:46 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Flash Flood Emergencies Declared in Louisiana Parishes as Rising Waters Force Evacuations

Three people have been killed and roughly 3,500 homes have been evacuated as widespread flooding bears down on parts of the South.

Rivers quickly rose near record flood stages and homes were submerged in what the National Weather Service in Shreveport, Louisiana, is calling a historic flash flooding event. The rainfall is expected to persist in many areas on Thursday. More than 20 inches of rain have fallen in the hardest-hit places.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
275. RitaEvac
4:44 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
NOLA being spared as of now
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
274. Patrap
4:41 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1006 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 838 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 944 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 938 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 936 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 931 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 921 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 913 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 908 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 901 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 854 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 844 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 838 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 739 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 717 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
273. Patrap
4:38 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
272. washingtonian115
4:38 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 270. georgevandenberghe:



A warmer pollen season will also be shorter.



I rather have this short and sweet and out of the way then have it be like 2015 where it was dragged out because of cooler temperatures.I still had terrible allergies until mid May last year where the heat started to become more persistent.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
271. georgevandenberghe
4:37 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 183. dibird:



Been there. Done that. Wasn't it VPISU back then? Now, of course, it's VT.


Yep. Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
270. georgevandenberghe
4:35 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 259. washingtonian115:

The temperature has now shot to 76 degrees.I smell a 2012 coming and my car had a coat of pollen on it this morning.My allergies will not quit,so I decided to telework instead.I remember what happened the last time when my allergies were this bad and I was on the train...people stayed away from me like I had the plague.


A warmer pollen season will also be shorter.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
269. RitaEvac
4:33 PM GMT on March 10, 2016








They need to be consistent with the color scheme, it doesn't match exactly and not sure why they do that
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
268. AtHomeInTX
4:30 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 264. Seattleite:

Just a little something to keep us on our toes here in Seattle. As if the record wettest winter wasn't enough...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA- BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
756 AM PST THU MAR 10 2016

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTH WIND 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...BROKEN TREE LIMBS AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

I'm honestly a little surprised that given our nearly inch of rain yesterday, and the fact that we are over antecedent wetness conditions conducive for landslides, that there isn't a special weather statement up warning of landslides... I wonder what criteria they use?


We don't have the landslide worry here, but we had those winds Tuesday. Highest recorded gust in the area was 47. Lost power for four hours! After about 8 months of the mildest weather I can remember, it got busy in a hurry. Quiet again now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
267. vis0
4:12 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 259. washingtonian115:

The temperature has now shot to 76 degrees.I smell a 2012 coming and my car had a coat of pollen on it this morning.My allergies will not quit,so I decided to telework instead.I remember what happened the last time when my allergies were this bad and I was on the train...people stayed away from me like I had the plague.




















that terrible
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
266. weathermanwannabe
4:11 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
The US drought monitor issued this morning. California still needs more rain and the yellow (abnormally dry) for Louisiana will probably be gone when they issue the updated one next week.....................

Current U.S. Drought Monitor
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
265. ILwthrfan
4:08 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 259. washingtonian115:

The temperature has now shot to 76 degrees.I smell a 2012 coming and my car had a coat of pollen on it this morning.My allergies will not quit,so I decided to telework instead.I remember what happened the last time when my allergies were this bad and I was on the train...people stayed away from me like I had the plague.


YEP, I too know what it's like to rip off 30 sneezes in 60 seconds. End result leaves me wondering just where all the mucus comes from...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
264. Seattleite
4:06 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Just a little something to keep us on our toes here in Seattle. As if the record wettest winter wasn't enough...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA- BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
756 AM PST THU MAR 10 2016

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTH WIND 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...BROKEN TREE LIMBS AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

I'm honestly a little surprised that given our nearly inch of rain yesterday, and the fact that we are over antecedent wetness conditions conducive for landslides, that there isn't a special weather statement up warning of landslides... I wonder what criteria they use?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
263. Tornado6042008X
3:58 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 259. washingtonian115:

The temperature has now shot to 76 degrees.I smell a 2012 coming and my car had a coat of pollen on it this morning.My allergies will not quit,so I decided to telework instead.I remember what happened the last time when my allergies were this bad and I was on the train...people stayed away from me like I had the plague.
Welp more space for you ;^)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
262. weathermanwannabe
3:55 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Waning El Ninos produce the most tornadoes for tornado alley; with the peak tornado season in May and June we may see some active periods this year if the decline towards neutral starts in earnest by late April. 
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
261. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:53 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 259. washingtonian115:

The temperature has now shot to 76 degrees.I smell a 2012 coming and my car had a coat of pollen on it this morning.My allergies will not quit,so I decided to telework instead.I remember what happened the last time when my allergies were this bad and I was on the train...people stayed away from me like I had the plague.
be close 85 today wash for you
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
260. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:52 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
when they look sick I stay away too
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
259. washingtonian115
3:51 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 257. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its very warm spring like with some wet thrown in this am then a slight chill down till the rebound
The temperature has now shot to 76 degrees.I smell a 2012 coming and my car had a coat of pollen on it this morning.My allergies will not quit,so I decided to telework instead.I remember what happened the last time when my allergies were this bad and I was on the train...people stayed away from me like I had the plague.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
258. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:46 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 245. ricderr:




did you notice the wording there.....BY SUMMER
june 21 sounds about right neutral to nina for the early next winter
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
257. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:42 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 249. washingtonian115:

It's already 71 degrees and its 9:50 am in the morning! This isn't spring like at all!
its very warm spring like with some wet thrown in this am then a slight chill down till the rebound
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
256. Seattleite
3:38 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 222. Qazulight:

I have noticed that when we get some actual weather in South East Texas, Pureet disappears.




Given Pureet's (assumed) anxiety concerns, I've always assumed that Pureet is hiding in a closet somewhere under a mattress curled up in a ball whenever real weather appears...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
255. CaribBoy
3:34 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 243. ricderr:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h3 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
El Nino will collapse much faster than 1998 as OLR and SLP in Tropical Pacific favor strong pos SOI next month


Very exciting !
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
254. CaribBoy
3:28 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
"A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with close to a 50 percen chance for La Nina conditions to develop by the fall." (CPC march update)

Keep saying that El Nino will continue through 2016 is getting mildly upsetting lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
253. AtHomeInTX
3:26 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Hang in there Louisiana.

Peter Mullinax ‏@wxmvpete 58m58 minutes ago
12Z Lake Charles sounding is astonishing. 2.15" PW value. 2nd highest DJFMA on record. Highest: 2.16" Apr 19 00Z
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
252. Tropicsweatherpr
3:19 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
The March CPC update says El Nino will fade by late Spring or early Summer and La Nina may arrive by the fall.There is a 50% chance of La Nina by ASO.



EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 March 2016


ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory



Synopsis: A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with close to a 50 percen chance for La Niña conditions to develop by the fall.

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during February (Fig. 1). The latest Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 weekly values were near 2°C, while the Niño-4 and Niño-1+2 indices were 1°C and 1.4°C respectively (Fig. 2). The subsurface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific decreased substantially (Fig. 3) in association with the eastward shift of below-average temperatures at depth (Fig. 4). Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued, but were weaker relative to January. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained strongly negative. In addition, convection was much enhanced over the central and east-central tropical Pacific and suppressed over parts of Indonesia and northern Australia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these anomalies reflect the continuation of a strong El Niño.

All models indicate that El Niño will weaken, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during the late spring or early summer 2016 (Fig. 6). Thereafter, the chance of La Niña conditions increases into the fall. While there is both model and physical support for La Niña following a strong El Niño, considerable uncertainty remains. A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with close to a 50 percen chance for La Niña conditions to develop by the fall (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Link



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
251. Gearsts
3:17 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
250. AtHomeInTX
3:15 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
US National Weather Service Lake Charles Louisiana
30 mins ·
...LIFE THREATENING SITUATION ALONG THE SABINE RIVER...
Estimates of 16 to 18 inches of rainfall over the last 3 days on Toledo Bend Reservoir has produced SIGNIFICANT runoff and will result in ALL TIME RECORD FLOODING.
Please stay up to date with the latest river forecasts, flood/flash flood warnings and follow all evacuation orders!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
249. washingtonian115
2:55 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
It's already 71 degrees and its 9:50 am in the morning! This isn't spring like at all!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
248. ACSeattle
2:54 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 239. Xulonn:

When did Joe Bastardi start believing in evidence?

JB gives us all the news that's print to fit.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
247. AtHomeInTX
2:43 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
We've been fortunate in my little corner of se tx. Still haven't checked my gauge this morning but main line of storms set up just to my west last night. Our heaviest rain was 3 inches in about and hour yesterday evening. Raining lightly now. Someone was asking about the rivers, I believe. Sabine at deweyville is in major flood. Should crest at record level 34.4 on the 20th. Take care everyone.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
246. NativeSun
2:42 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 241. ricderr:

before nerves get a little frayed....let's all sing together.......




slip slidin away......slip slidin awayayayay.....we once had an el nino but now it's slip slidin away
I would check with STS, before singing such songs. I just wish we would get some of the rain they are getting, hasn't rained here in a few weeks now, but we are getting a lot of wind from the low in Mexico, and the Atlantic High.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
245. ricderr
2:42 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 244. ricderr:

NWSVerified account ‏@NWS 36m36 minutes ago
Strong #ElNiño on decline. Likely to transition to neutral by summer @NWSCPC http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mon itoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html …



did you notice the wording there.....BY SUMMER
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
244. ricderr
2:41 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
NWSVerified account ‏@NWS 36m36 minutes ago
Strong #ElNiño on decline. Likely to transition to neutral by summer @NWSCPC http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mon itoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html …
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
243. ricderr
2:40 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h3 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
El Nino will collapse much faster than 1998 as OLR and SLP in Tropical Pacific favor strong pos SOI next month
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
242. ricderr
2:40 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h3 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Lower pressure and increased convection off NW Australia first signs of evolving La Nina, ENSO 3.4 should reach 0 by July, -.5C by Sep
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
241. ricderr
2:37 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
before nerves get a little frayed....let's all sing together.......




slip slidin away......slip slidin awayayayay.....we once had an el nino but now it's slip slidin away
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
240. NativeSun
2:33 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 163. chasSoCal:

AG Loretta Lynch Testifies: Justice Department Has ‘Discussed’ Civil Legal Action Against Climate Change Deniers
Link

No idea if this accurate, interesting though.
What a bunch of nut jobs.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
239. Xulonn
2:24 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Quoting 210. luvtogolf:
JB putting out on Twitter that EL Nino going to crash faster than '98. Using evidence that is believable.
When did Joe Bastardi start believing in evidence?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
238. LuckySD
2:23 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
237. Skyepony (Mod)
2:23 PM GMT on March 10, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Category 6™

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather