U.S. Has its Warmest Winter on Record; Major Deluge Coming to TX, AR, LA

By: Jeff Masters , 5:31 PM GMT on March 08, 2016

The contiguous U.S. just experienced its warmest winter on record, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information on Tuesday, with the three-month meteorological winter period of December 2015 through February 2016 coming in tops for the 121-year period of record that began in 1895. Every state had above-average temperatures, and 36 states had a top-ten warmest winter on record. The most notable warmth was in the Northeast, where all of New England had their warmest winter on record. The record-warm U.S. winter was made possible by very warm conditions in December and February: December 2015 was the warmest December on record for the contiguous U.S., and February 2016 was the 6th warmest February. January 2016 was a bit cooler, ranking as the 33rd warmest January. NOAA will release its winter temperature rankings for the entire globe on March 17. I expect that we will see Earth set a new record for warmest winter on record globally, since December 2015 and January 2016 were the two warmest months in recorded history (expressed as a departure from average.) The record warmth is due to the steady accumulation of heat-trapping gases in Earth's atmosphere due to human activities, plus an extra approximately 10% bump in temperatures due to the slowly waning record-strength El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 1. State-by-state temperature rankings for the winter period December 2015 through February 2016. Every state had above-average temperatures, and 36 states had a top-ten warmest winter on record. The most notable warmth was in the Northeast, where all of New England had their warmest winter in the 121-year period of record. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Figure 2. State-by-state precipitation rankings for the winter period December 2015 through February 2016. Only two states had below-average precipitation, and ten states had a top-ten wettest winter on record. One state--Iowa--had their wettest winter on record. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.

Major deluge headed for Arkansas, Louisiana, and East Texas
A large low pressure system (a "cut-off" low) has separated from the jet stream, and will stay parked over the U.S./Mexico border region during much of the week. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will bring up plenty of warm, moisture-laden air from the tropics along the east side of the low, resulting in an extended period of very heavy rains over Arkansas, Louisiana, and East Texas this week. With rainfall amounts in excess of 7" expected over this region, flash flooding will be the main concern this week. By this weekend, when all of this rain has had time to flow into area rivers, expect to see several rivers crest at near-record flood levels. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are near average over the Gulf of Mexico, which will keep the amount of moisture available to this week's storms lower than would be the case if SSTs were unusually warm. However, the cut-off low has tapped into a moisture source in the deep tropics over the Eastern Pacific where SSTs are record warm. An "atmospheric river" of water vapor can be seen on satellite images extending from the record-warm waters south of Mexico directly into the Southern U.S. (Figure 3.) This warm, moist air will be very unstable, helping contribute to severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes over the Southern U.S. today through Thursday. As of noon EST Tuesday, one tornado had been reported in Texas, along with fourteen reports of severe thunderstorm winds.


Figure 3. Satellite-derived Integrated Water Vapor (the total amount of rain, in centimeters, that would result from condensing all water vapor in a column of air) as of 8:55 am EST March 8, 2016. Two "atmospheric rivers" of water vapor are seen affecting the U.S.--one from the Eastern Pacific flowing across Mexico into the Southern U.S., and one extending from the tropics past Hawaii towards the coast of California. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.


Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 3-day period ending 7 am EST Friday, March 11, 2016. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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225. vis0
9:54 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
CREDIT:: NOAA, NASA, University of Washington
D&T:: 201603-09;1845_-09;2035 (3 Hrs)
SAT IMG:: AniGIF, Blend of 3, final product not a public from any of the 3 aforementioned.
MORE:: See in the 1st image the purples, only colour left higher in my blended NOAA colurkey are the deep rich blues.
image host

 
ONE MORE THING:: In my next upload it'll be an interest rung anomaly or is it real of a cluster of lightning strikes seemingly moving together, i think it has to be a tower being hit by lightning or some graphic anomaly but if real WOW!.  In my next upload ~15 minutes from now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
224. JNFlori30A
4:38 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Quoting 214. RitaEvac:



Just goes to show that man has no capability to predict.....anything. Never has and never will. Can create all the technology in the world, the best minds in the world....and at the end of the day, the cards will fall as they may.
If it wasn't for all those dang variables!
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223. win1gamegiantsplease
4:34 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Quoting 190. weathermanwannabe:

I don't see any tornado warnings up in the Carolinas at the moment as noted below (only the one in LA).


There's definitely none in the Carolinas, they're testing (though maybe not related, this week is severe weather awareness week). Two straight days of 70 degree temps in the region and mostly sunshine.
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222. vis0
4:31 PM GMT on March 09, 2016

Quoting 202. georgevandenberghe:



Snowdrops bloom in January here in DC. This year I saw the first ones Dec 31 and was surprised because I thought they hadn't gotten enough chilling.

Daffodils are just starting here and this is about the time they usually start, second week of March.
If one looks close enough many leaves never fell off.    

Some leaves just turned "tree bark brown" (a drier version/colour of a brown leaf),  that is not good as the trees dormant period is like humans during REM sleep.  

Its when living things ..uh... have their red rest button IN THE BRAIN OR AURAs cyclical flow is reset by nature/gawd by "comparing" ones living energy to the higher" ethereal energy all around us (ya know that alpha-omega stuff, why auras are protected by a "humidity clause"). SIDE DISH OF RANT:: Remember those old TV** that had the red reset button in the back if pressed while ON you heard the sound of static racing through the TV.  Same in less complex animals (dogs-cats)...when?... when they also sleep but being less complex also when they shake their heads. Everything goes through this hence even rocks are alive, its that their self-soul-spirit is centered onto the complex planet, oops thought i was on my blog ah "leafing it in". Of course being we are complex Beings in a physical plane we can decide what we do and that means flow with nature (not as much fun) go against nature fun but very dangerous or pick a point somewhere in between, have fun but respect others including the planet
------------------------------------------------- -----------
**ya know without sar2401 how can we hear life stories as to serious weather of the covered wagon era?

Let me try::

i remember as a kid the winds RUSHING by me gust after gust the winds came from all angles (was standing too close to subway platform edge on 42nd st, NYC as subway cars passed by). The rains where pouring EVEN on a sunlit day (in that subway platform underground i happened to stand under the street grating, the puddles of rain from yesterday where being splashed by taxis down the street grating onto me)...see my adventure with water & rain isn't like sar2401.

BACK TO SERIOUS FLOODING and more???, take a deep breath shake off the WxU blog blues and thanks to those keeping watches & warnings up to date ...oh and thanks to Dr. Masters & Mr. Henson
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221. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:26 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
220. Skyepony (Mod)
4:25 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
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219. NativeSun
4:23 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Quoting 210. ILwthrfan:

The new 12Z GFS is once again shifting it's heavy rain axis to the east and south of previous forecast. Starting to look like I may not get drop out of this...:/


I hope it shifts really far to the East and South, we could use the rain here in Southeast Florida, and the Keys.
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218. ChiThom
4:23 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Quoting 202. georgevandenberghe:



Snowdrops bloom in January here in DC. This year I saw the first ones Dec 31 and was surprised because I thought they hadn't gotten enough chilling.

Daffodils are just starting here and this is about the time they usually start, second week of March.

You folks in DC are usually a couple weeks ahead of us in Chi-town. My daffodils are starting, too.

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217. BaltimoreBrian
4:22 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Just for ChiThom. Great bike too :)

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216. NativeSun
4:21 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Quoting 200. ChiThom:

It was 71° here today! Going from winter to spring. it was not needed this year. The winter that never was.

Snow drops in the mud...they usually come up through the snow.

Green machine getting up to 40 mpg since 1978, fun and powerful. BMW with original Luftmeister fairing. This is additional evidence of springtime in Chicagoland.
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215. NativeSun
4:16 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Quoting 199. ricderr:




hmmm...believes in it...or uses it as it fits their agenda
More liked addicted to it. Lets see what happens when this Nina takes hold.
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214. RitaEvac
4:10 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Quoting 212. bwi:



Interesting that a super El Nino was only able to deliver average precip to California. Maybe a fluke, or maybe that's what it takes these days.


Just goes to show that man has no capability to predict.....anything. Never has and never will. Can create all the technology in the world, the best minds in the world....and at the end of the day, the cards will fall as they may.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
213. vis0
4:08 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
its deja-vu deluge all over again

Its like a TS split into thirds  1-flow (yesterday), 2-rain (today-tommorrow) the 3-winds (tonite-tommorrow)
non of the TS characteristics working together all at once but in the end similar effects.

Remember the days when Tornado warning sirens where tested BEFORE any T-activity? Sure once every 22-34 yrs an outbreal hit early but now its becoming the "undesirable norm" (nice title for a follow-up to inconvenient truth?)
Now for some ~weird reason~ ...mayyyyyyyyyybe! aGW, ...tornadoes are happening earlier (TS -too) so we might have to begin the monthly state to state  T-sirens tests during Xmas....on a regular basis.
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212. bwi
3:56 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Quoting 203. Mediarologist:

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you: The Big El Nino Western Rain Event..




Interesting that a super El Nino was only able to deliver average precip to California. Maybe a fluke, or maybe that's what it takes these days.
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211. 62901IL
3:54 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Quoting 210. ILwthrfan:

The new 12Z GFS is once again shifting it's heavy rain axis to the east and south of previous forecast. Starting to look like I may not get drop out of this...:/




Don't worry, I get at least 2 inches.
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210. ILwthrfan
3:52 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
The new 12Z GFS is once again shifting it's heavy rain axis to the east and south of previous forecast. Starting to look like I may not get drop out of this...:/

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209. 62901IL
3:51 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
The Storm God isn't just Angry, he's Raging. 10 inches of Rain in Shreveport just spells trouble.

Here, in Carbondale, not even an inch yet. Flood watch does't start till noon now.
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208. LargoFl
3:49 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
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207. weathermanwannabe
3:49 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Models aside (which are actually getting pretty good in terms of short-term forecasting but still with an occassional blown forecast) are great tools but I would say, personally, that the satellite imagery is the best tool that we have; the models might drill down where the greatest impacts might be (and are not gospel) but you can certainly see the bad weather on the way from the overhead imagery and get a good idea of what you are dealing with (whether tropical lows, winter lows, or other large scale weather complexes)......... We would all be flying totally blind without the weather satellites.
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206. StAugustineFL
3:46 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Quoting 190. weathermanwannabe:

I don't see any tornado warnings up in the Carolinas at the moment as noted below (only the one in LA).


The tornado warnings in SC and NC are test warnings.
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205. LargoFl
3:46 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
204. Xyrus2000
3:46 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Quoting 162. elioe:



Australia will be habitable at least as long as there is an edible plant, that can be cultivated in the local climate; as long as the climate allows animal husbandry; and as long as there is mining. The main point is to have a livelihood available in the location.


Correction, Australia will be habitable only as long as it's climate can support the people willing to live there. When the climate it's too difficult to survive in and/or it becomes unprofitable, it will no longer be habitable. Businesses will leave, people will leave (those that can) and everyone else will die. It's happened all throughout human history.

Compared to that, heat waves are only a nuisance, as long as they are not intense enough to destroy the livelihood.

There is very little margin left for that. When people can't afford power/air conditioning and are suffering and dying due to extreme heat I'd hardly call that a "nuisance". Especially when it's getting worse.

Ps. I would really like to see Lake Eyre filled, would do good for the Australian climate. ( Generally, I love massive geoengineering projects. )

Geoengineering at best only addresses symptoms, not the causes. At worst, it introduces a whole new set of issues on top of the problems you were trying to solve in the first place. There are consequences to screwing around with the climate system and you better be damn sure of what you're doing. Otherwise you could spend decades or centuries trying to undo the damage.
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203. Mediarologist
3:40 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you: The Big El Nino Western Rain Event..

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
202. georgevandenberghe
3:30 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Quoting 200. ChiThom:

It was 71° here today! Going from winter to spring. it was not needed this year. The winter that never was.

Snow drops in the mud...they usually come up through the snow.

Green machine getting up to 40 mpg since 1978, fun and powerful. BMW with original Luftmeister fairing. This is additional evidence of springtime in Chicagoland.


Snowdrops bloom in January here in DC. This year I saw the first ones Dec 31 and was surprised because I thought they hadn't gotten enough chilling.

Daffodils are just starting here and this is about the time they usually start, second week of March.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
201. Neapolitan
3:27 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Quoting 168. NativeSun:

Yes lets do more damage to the atmosphere, if it isn't going to rain in your area, don't destroy it for somebody downwind that might also need it. If you take the moister out of the atmosphere in one area, what is going to replace it downwind?
Quoting 170. NativeSun:

O well, as they say, you can't control mother nature.
So...we *can't* control Mother Nature, or we *can*? Your answers appear to be in conflict with one another...
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200. ChiThom
3:26 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
It was 71° here today! Going from winter to spring. it was not needed this year. The winter that never was.

Snow drops in the mud...they usually come up through the snow.

Green machine getting up to 40 mpg since 1978, fun and powerful. BMW with original Luftmeister fairing. This is additional evidence of springtime in Chicagoland.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
199. ricderr
3:22 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Quoting 192. CaribBoy:



And of course, somebody still believes in the outlier Cfsv2.



hmmm...believes in it...or uses it as it fits their agenda
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
198. MonsterTrough
3:21 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Quoting 172. RitaEvac:

It's becoming more and more apparent that meteorologists are becoming model watchers and relying solely on them. And sadly, I myself am beginning to not pay too much attention especially when it comes down to supposedly big events that are not panning out consistently. Yes flooding and severe weather has taken place in other places, but this stuff has to start getting pinned down otherwise people are not going to pay attention in the future at all, and by then, something bad will happen.

TV mets? Same issue in Indy. 'This model, that model, this outlier model'. Science has gone bye bye.
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197. weathermanwannabe
3:17 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Very nasty looking stuff heading into the MS Valley region:



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196. weathermanwannabe
3:15 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
First report of the am; we should see the storm and possible tornado warnings start to move slowly to the East-NE into LA, AK and into MS over the next several hours:

last3hours Reports Graphic

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195. vis0
3:01 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Quoting 170. NativeSun:

O well, as they say, you can't control mother nature.
Quoting 173. Neapolitan:

The only people who say that are those unfamiliar with physics. We are, indeed, unintentionally controlling Mother Nature--and if you ask me, she doesn't appear to be very happy about it...
(reply to Qu170)
i prefer to use "influence" rather than control.
Any being that can create things outside of the natural process i.e. gasoline of which most of what creates it is stored in the strongest safes known to mankind.  Stronger that any federal vault, that safe is Earth's deep underground vaults of minerals and much of it in being in that "vault" allowed creatures "allergic" (to say the least, some interactions would be directly deadly not delay deadly as aGW) to those minerals to flourish as Humans.
Now once those dangerous to those that thrive on the planets surface escape or are extruded now one begins to influence the Natural flow of Earth, natural as in what flows on  the natural pace versus what flows on the humans "gimme gimme (quicker than immediately) pace.
 
Can humans try to control Nature, sure but the more one tries to control Nature the more Nature and her big brother gawd push back, not by some form of anger but by the laws of the sciences.  Both nature & gawd are unconditionally luving, that means TO ALL not just humans.  So lets stick to physics, nature. If one adds chemicals to nature that normally would not be flowing above ground then in nature unconditionally luving ALL nature via science creates reacts to protect ALL even if it kills a few, as in a few million Humans or they things they eat and nature through the laws of physics does this to protect the complex planet.    Again don't look too far, THINK if the planet that i full of fluids is warming for whatever reason one of the things that will take hold is mildew then mold. Those things being indestructible once in the blood stream as one has to then remove all of a body's fluids to take out all spores and i think we understand we need fluids to live and then there still could be a mold spore in ones brain as those fluids cannot be touched guess what humanity disappears not by some complex virus but silly old mold.  
 
OH WAIT BACK TO THE TIMES ARE LOCAL (underlined to better follow across, why Patrap enlarges as in an emergency squinting "ain't" good.)
 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 857 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 833 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 825 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 818 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 814 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     COLUMBIA SC - KCAE 900 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 900 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     WILMINGTON NC - KILM 900 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 758 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 858 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 753 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 739 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 724 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 722 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 715 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 714 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 711 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 653 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
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194. georgevandenberghe
2:56 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
When will I learn {facepalm}

Once again I get burned with a spring DC temp forecast under several days of sun. Models forecast the several days of sun under a high and pleasant 70s. Instead the airmass is heating up and we are looking at low 80s today and well into the 80s tomorrow!

Every spring heat wave except the ones in March 2012, looked like that.. nice five days out, hot verifying!

At least I don't do this for a living :-)
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193. georgevandenberghe
2:47 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
A question for Dr Masters and Henson.

How does the "atmospheric river" tapping into equatorial moisture southwest of Old Mexico, get across
the mountains there without having most of its moisture stripped? They do look impressive but moisture below 8K feet will get rained out.
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192. CaribBoy
2:47 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Quoting 187. ricderr:

gfdl is also showing moderate......





And of course, somebody still believes in the outlier Cfsv2.
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191. LuckySD
2:31 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Morning all. Crazy seeing all the rain still in the same places from yesterday. I could post the exact same radars I did yesterday and it would look like they haven't updated.

Record Report
Issued: 4:02 AM CST Mar. 9, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Shreveport...

a record rainfall of 5.12 inch(es) was set at Shreveport yesterday.
This breaks the old record of 2.15 set in 1905.

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190. weathermanwannabe
2:30 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
I don't see any tornado warnings up in the Carolinas at the moment as noted below (only the one in LA).
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189. ricderr
2:23 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
and the nasa model......la nina neutral


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188. vis0
2:21 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
NOTE TIMES ARE - LOCAL TIME
 
TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 818 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 814 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     COLUMBIA SC - KCAE 900 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 900 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     WILMINGTON NC - KILM 900 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 758 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 858 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 753 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 739 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 724 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 722 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 715 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 714 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 711 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 653 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 641 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 629 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
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187. ricderr
2:21 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
gfdl is also showing moderate......


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186. ricderr
2:21 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
and we talked about the NMME models being updated early this week....not sure they were shared....please allow me


the canadian model suggests a moderate la nina

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185. ricderr
2:18 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
and yes....tropics......this graph shows better that the cfsv2 is initializing at about 2.4c....while last weeks enso report showed the 3.4 region at 1.9

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
184. ricderr
2:15 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
147. TropicalAnalystwx13
5:53 AM GMT on March 09, 2016
5 +
The CFSv2 is apparently having initialization issues and should be thrown out. At this point, there is little question that the ongoing El Nino will have a quick demise as we progress toward the start of the 2016 hurricane season, and we could be looking at a La Nina by August. Ocean currents have already reversed, and a cool pool is becoming well established below the surface.

Cool ENSO years favor increased Atlantic activity in general, but that's one part of a larger puzzle.


i agree with your post but please allow me to be picky just a bit.....while i would agree that we'll be seeing la nina conditions in august....i'm not sure it will be officially declared
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183. weathermanwannabe
2:08 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Here are the storm reports from yesterday and nothing up yet this morning (but it looks very promising as daytime heating progresses). The rain totals look pretty unbelievable for this time of the year due to the lows and particularly the very slow moving ULL over Mexico (not your typical short-term frontal passage rain event):


Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop



yesterday Filtered Reports Graphic

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182. KoritheMan
2:03 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
I'm actually more concerned about today's severe potential for Louisiana than I am tomorrow. The GFS/NAM suggest the pseudo MCS shouldn't evolve until tomorrow as the main system slides eastward. In the meantime, with a 30 to 35 kt low-level jet and at least modest turning of the winds with height, we should be on the outlook for the possibility of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes today, since any storms that form likely won't have that much convective competition compared to tomorrow. The greatest concentration of this activity should occur around the Lake Charles area, possibly spreading eastward and northward a bit as well.
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181. MahFL
2:03 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Lake Shasta, CA continues to fill up :

68% of Total Capacity
90% of Historical Avg. For This Date.
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180. MahFL
1:56 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Flood emergency declared in Shreveport, LA. They have had 10 inches of rain and more forecast.
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179. weathermanwannabe
1:56 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
And finally, the highs for today; notice how the jet dip is allowing some cooler air from the North to dip down into the Northern mid-section of the US. However, not that pool of very cold polar air that we get in the middle of Winter; Spring is on the horizon:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

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178. MahFL
1:54 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Quoting 168. NativeSun:

Yes lets do more damage to the atmosphere, if it isn't going to rain in your area, don't destroy it for somebody downwind that might also need it. If you take the moister out of the atmosphere in one area, what is going to replace it downwind?


On the east side of CA the mountains squeeze out the rain, they have plenty of moisture in the mountains, it's in the valleys they need the rain.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
177. weathermanwannabe
1:43 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Interesting how the huge (anomalous) upper level low over Mexico has temporarily displaced the flow of the Pacific Jet; in the absence of this low, we would have a more normal El Nino type jet flow from the E-Pac, and across Mexico, towards the Northern Gulf Coast from the West-SW:



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
176. weathermanwannabe
1:36 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
And finally the skinny from WPC on the Texas/Mexico lows and impacts:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 AM EST Wed Mar 09 2016

Valid 12Z Wed Mar 09 2016 - 12Z Fri Mar 11 2016

...Flash flooding threat to continue for portions of southern plains and
lower/mid Mississippi valley...

...Severe thunderstorms possible today across western Gulf Coast states...

...Heavy rain possible for the Pacific Northwest and northern California...

A large and anomalous upper-level low will move slowly across northern
Mexico over the next couple days. East of this low, a plume of deep
tropical moisture will continue streaming northward into the southern
plains and the lower/middle Mississippi valley. This moisture will
interact with a couple frontal boundaries across the region to produce
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Due to the very slow movement of the
upper-level low, showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect many of
the same areas through Friday. Heavy rain falling over the same areas
repeatedly will lead to the threat of flash flooding for some areas.
Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a slight risk of
severe thunderstorms today across portions of the western Gulf Coast
states. Farther north, rain showers across the Midwest and Great Lakes
today will advance east into the Ohio valley and Northeast on Thursday
ahead of a cold front. Snow and sleet may fall across northern New England
Thursday evening into Friday morning.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
175. weathermanwannabe
1:33 PM GMT on March 09, 2016
Those lows (both upper and lower level) over Texas and Mexico keep pumping moisture from the E-Pac and Gulf, along with the Pacific jet, into the mid-section/US plains like a conveyor belt:

Lover Level-Low/Vorticity:



Upper Level Low:



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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather