Moisture at Last for California; Severe Storms, Heavy Rain for TX/LA/AR/MS

By: Bob Henson , 6:57 PM GMT on March 07, 2016

Rain lovers across central and northern California--and snow lovers across the Sierra Nevada--were equally pleased at the storminess that enveloped the region over the last several days. Multiday rainfall totals of 1” to 4” were widespread across the Bay Area, with larger amounts toward the north and at higher elevations. Several points along the Coast Range racked up 10” to 12” totals. Snowfall was also generous across the Sierra Nevada mountains to the east (see below). All told, the weekend storms gave a big boost to a region that had gotten only scant precipitation during February--usually one of the wettest months of the year, and often a prodigiously stormy month during strong El Niño events, such as the one now in place. The precipitation wasn’t as abundant toward Southern California, but even this drought-scarred area got an encouraging dose of precipitation during the weekend and into Monday morning.


Figure 1. Webcam photo of snow atop Frazier Mountain in far northern Ventura County, CA, on Monday morning, March 7, 2016. Image credit: NWS/Los Angeles.


Figure 2. WunderMap interactive radar shows a line of intense thunderstorms moves across the San Diego/Tijuana area at around 9:15 am PST on Monday, March 7, 2016.


Thunderstorms raged off the southern California coast on Sunday night, producing ample lightning and paving the way for a dark and stormy Monday morning over coastal Southern California. Several potent lines of thunderstorms moved across the region’s coastal metropolitan areas, bringing lightning, hail, and brief heavy rain. Severe thunderstorm warnings were in effect for most of San Diego County as one line approached.

Sierra snowpack clawing its way back toward average
The crucial Sierra Nevada snowpack, which stores about a third of the water used by Californians, has improved over the last few days. As of Sunday, March 6, the Sierra Nevada had pushed back above its long-term average values for accumulated precipitation in the water year to date, starting July 1 (see Figure 3). A good portion of that moisture has run off or melted off, helping to replenish downstream reservoirs and aquifers. The actual amount of water held in the snowpack--the snow water equivalent--is between about 75% and 85% of average for the wet season to date, according to daily analysis from the California Department of Water Resources. With several storms still in the pipeline over the next few days, that percentage is likely to climb.


Figure 3. Precipitation totals for the three regions of the Sierra Nevada from July 1 through March 6 (green bars), compared to the last four years (tan, grey, yellow, and red bars) and to average long-term values for the same period. Image credit: Jan Null, Golden Gate Weather Services.

L.A. still lacking; Seattle still soaked
Even after this weekend’s storms, Southern California remains on the low side when it comes to 2015-16 winter precipitation. As of midnight Sunday night, Los Angeles had racked up 0.64” for the month, with another half inch or so on Monday morning. Yet the total through Sunday night of 5.64” remained far below the average wet-season total to date (October 1 – March 6) of 11.61”. As of midnight Sunday, San Diego had garnered just 0.33” of rain this month. That left its total since October 1 (3.91”) almost 7” below the average rainfall received by this point in the year. Additional rain on Monday will help, but it appears that the bounty of heavy rain over the next week-plus will be aimed primarily north of the LA-San Diego area, with the possible exception of another weekend storm around Friday/Saturday. On the plus side, there remains a chance of additional rain heading toward the region over at least the following week or so, as more impulses travel along the subtropical Pacific jet stream.

Most folks in Seattle would probably be happy to see the El Niño rain belt focusing further south. The winter of 2015-16 is already the wettest in Seattle’s 123-year weather history--an utterly unexpected result during a strong El Niño year--and the downpours show no sign of abating. As of Sunday night, Sea-Tac Airport had racked up 39.44” of moisture in the wet season that began on October 1, 2015. Measurable rain has occurred at Sea-Tac on each of the first seven days of March. The only time March began in Seattle with a longer streak of rain was March 1-8, 1919. That record appears likely to tumble, as there is rain in Seattle’s forecast every day this week.


Figure 4. The 500-mb forecast from the 12Z Monday run of the GFS model, valid at 72 hours (12Z or 7:00 am EST Thursday, March 10), shows a deep, slow-moving upper low centered over southern Texas, with a strong, warm ridge over the northeast U.S. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.

Severe weather, heavy rain still heading for south-central U.S.
The powerful upper jet plowing across California this weekend will soon carve out an unusually deep upper low extending far south into Mexico. Near-record low temperatures (especially cool daytime highs) can be expected across northern Mexico, with snow falling atop some of the higher Sierra Madre peaks. The upper low will help channel copious amounts of tropical moisture northward into the south-central U.S., setting the stage for a multi-day period of torrential rain and severe weather. With the atmosphere so moist at all levels, and with upper- and lower-level winds all blowing more or less from the south, this doesn’t look like a classic spring outbreak with isolated supercell thunderstorms. Instead, we’re likely to see many clusters and lines of intense storms dumping extremely heavy rain, with some severe weather embedded in the mix. Short-lived circulations and brief tornadoes may crop up as the storms multiply, making for a tough week for local forecasters. As of midday Monday, the NOAA Storm Prediction Center was not highlighting any areas of significant severe weather for the next several days, another sign that most of the storms are unlikely to be especially destructive. For most areas, SPC is dubbing the event a “long duration-low probability tornado risk.”


Figure 5. Convective outlooks issued by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center as of midday Monday, valid for the 24 hours until 6:00 am CST on (left to right) Tuesday, March 8; Wednesday, March 9; and Thursday, March 10.


The very moist air mass expected to flow into the south-central states will approach or exceed precipitable water records for March at some locations. Together with the powerful upper low, this means the potential for extreme rainfall, gradually spreading from Texas and Arkansas into Louisiana and Mississippi as the week unfolds. The details will depend on how each night’s showers and thunderstorms evolve; it’s likely that the zones of highest rainfall will get shunted southeastward each day as rain-cooled air pushes a surface front in that direction. When all is said and done by week’s end, we may see totals of more than a foot of rain in some locations, with widespread 6-12” amounts.

Bob Henson


Figure 6. 7-day precipitation forecast for the period from 12Z (7:00 am EST) Monday, March 7, though Monday, March 14, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.



The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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189. georgevandenberghe
8:11 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Quoting 159. DeepSeaRising:

Storms SE of Houston to intensify quickly, maybe producing short live tornadoes. Where will that southern branch build in. Going to be impressive when it does. We should go ahead and say it. This is not normal.


Not unexpected for a very strong El Nino year.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
188. vis0
6:29 PM GMT on March 08, 2016

Quoting 174. Patrap:

ZOOM the radar here, and then refresh the page and tell me what happens.

would like to try it  but being on a slow connection i'm lucky if i see the upper half of 2 radar images though have tried used the SAVE SETTINGS feature, lower left under ANIMATE with the drak gray framing?
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187. StormTrackerScott
6:12 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Quoting 154. JRRP7:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
Combined SST + Atmospheric analogs for February concur with a change to -ENSO by June, agreeing with models.


For everytime I have heard someone mention a analog forecast only to be verified as wrong down the road I would be one rich man. If I were him I would throw analog's out the window as there appears to be a unique situation unfolding later this year and signs are already showing up across the Globe especially across the Indian Ocean which is exhibiting characteristics of another surge in El-Nino coming this Summer.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
186. vis0
6:12 PM GMT on March 08, 2016

Quoting 119. StormTrackerScott:



So is the cold pool. You can somewhat make out what could be another warm pool getting itself together underneath the dissipating cool pool. I don't know if many are aware that what is stopping us from going to La-Nina is because of what's happening across the Indian Ocean as anomalous westward moving currents across the Indian Ocean seems to be setting the stage for another +IOD down the pike. What we maybe witnessing is history in the making as you can see signs all over the Globe pointing toward a possible CFS win.

I can say I haven't seen anything like this in my lifetime.
(this was not the original reply, i made the error in typing it up on the WxU comment area and it froze. i really had a nice well formatted opinion this is 78% of that)
Now let me post what the opinion of others (italicized) might say plus my comment;
Since its the spring barrier portion of the year most WxModels overdue to one side or the other (Niño v Niña)
The CFS seems to go towards not just creating more ghost storms (sit down Hawaiian Octopus) than most other WxModels and also more edge of extremes storms/WxPatterns (there another WxU blog name)The last 2 months has had errors in the ENSO readings...
(had 1 more reason others might state but it was lost from my thoughts when FFox froze)
 
What i see is that with aGW influencing extremes in weather and the CFS MODEL runs are then fitting into WHEN the weather & aGW are blending (biosphere linking up) to the point that it creates that NEW uncharted weather patterns therefore knowing what ENSO created in the past still will be the more frequent output but some years will not fit at all and that is where CFS looks better. Therefore those that read or make a living from ENSO statistics (readings) will notice that what appear as errors might be but do not be surprised that its aGW forcing what was once considered background noise and now becomes more influential noise
Its not that the CFS is better than others under “normal” (Your Great Grandfathers weather) weather conditions but that with added ingredients that cause extreme weather as what is warming up a planet does, be it GW or aGW then CFS will predict a more closer to the real outcome.
Now in my mind (theories i've come up with NOT FACT, yet)  i figure of every 11 years and eventually ~44 yrs AT THIS PRESENT 11 (x4) = ~44years years cycle/phase of the Sun and Earth’s Magmasphere...
("Magmasphere", word i created and i state it uses its magnetic spiral motions to influence weather and climate, the warmer the planet the more viscous thus more opportunities to spin up long term weather.motions towards either extreme as dry-wet, hot-cold,  "etc - cte"    yet all leaning towards a warmer planets climate)  
...interactions we’ll see 3 to 4 years per cycle and/or 9 to 11 years per phase where the CFS would have better predicted EXTREME ENSO events.
You know why i say “...CFS would have better...” ‘cause as the CFS is improved to match the Euro it won’t be able to create these extreme scenarios in turn not predict aGW extreme effects on weather.
My advice (hey where did everyone go) to NOAA/NASA when you gals and guys improve the CFS use today's version to predict when you see extreme conditions near ENSO.
As to the ENSO corrections mentioned yesterday weird how 2 plus kind of a 3rd ENSO readings are all adding errors or could it be something else its reacting to not yet understood by todays formulas
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
185. StormTrackerScott
6:09 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Downwelling Kelvin Wave appears to be happening near the Dateline as cooler subsurface waters begin to vanish. This is going to be interesting going forward and the CFS may have a huge win with its forecast if this keeps up. Eric Blake's twitter page has this animated and wow just watch how the cool subsurface waters go poof!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
184. Patrap
5:33 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
This is one LONG NWS discussion fer sure.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1022 am CST Tuesday Mar 8 2016


(snip... )


Short term...

Strong onshore flow will persist through the day as a low pressure
system continues to slowly move into Texas and a ridge of high
pressure remains parked over the eastern Seaboard. This strong
onshore flow of 15 to 20 miles per hour will continue to pump a deep layer of
Gulf moisture into the forecast area...with mixing ratios rising
from 11 g/kg this morning to 13 g/kg by this evening. Precipitable water values
will also increase a good half an inch through the day. This
moisture will continue to keep mostly cloudy skies in place
through the day...and will also allow temperatures to remain very
mild with daytime highs rising back into the middle to upper 70s.
These warmer temperatures at the surface...combined with a
complete erosion of the cap aloft and improving lapse rates of
around 6.0 c/km should allow cape values to climb to around 1000
j/kg this afternoon. Once the convective temperature in the upper
70s is reached this afternoon...some scattered convection should
develop. Moisture convergence and forcing aloft should be most
significant over the northwest part of the County Warning Area...and have high
end chance of around 50 percent in place for this area this
afternoon. There is some directional and speed shear in place...so
a few strong to possibly severe storms could form. The highest
risk of storms will be closer to the Atchafalaya basin.

Little change in the ongoing pattern is expected for
tomorrow...and a general repeat of the same conditions is
expected with higher rain chances over the western third of the
County Warning Area. The biggest change from today is that severe parameters look
a bit more favorable...especially for areas west of the Interstate
55 corridor including metropolitan Baton Rouge and the river parishes.
Model soundings indicate that total shear values around Baton
Rouge could exceed 100 knots and storm relative helicity values
could exceed 300 m2/s2. Additionally...lapse rates look to be
slightly steeper and cape values could be closer to 1500 j/kg
during the afternoon hours. A few supercell type thunderstorms
could be possible during the afternoon hours on Wednesday for the
far western zones. Farther to the east...directional shear will
still be impressive...but overall instability and speed shear
values will be much lower. Thus...the threat of severe
thunderstorm development will be significantly lower for the
Mississippi Gulf Coast. A more marginal risk is expected for metropolitan
New Orleans. Temperatures will once again easily climb into the
middle and upper 70s on Wednesday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
183. Astrometeor
5:32 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Quoting 161. Xyrus2000:



A peak total eclipse will occur over the continental US next year. Greatest extent will be in western Kentucky but the path of totality will pass by Nashville. So if you want to get your country and bluegrass on while saying hi to the king and enjoying an astronomical phenomena, head to Nashville August 21st. :)

Path Of Eclipse


Nashville is still very ignorant of what's going to happen next year. All hotel rooms in Hopkinsville, KY, for example, are already booked for that week. My mother is planning to quit her job so she can devote her full time to astronomy, including the eclipse. We talked yesterday and she reminded me that "you meteorologists are going to be under pressure to get the forecast right that day."

She even bought a couple of websites already. Nerd.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
182. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:32 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
181. ndscott50
5:28 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
I wanted to see if anyone had an idea related to flooding frequency and trends by state. I am doing some research for a contractor where an element of their business relates to repair of transportation infrastructure from flooding. I am trying to determine the frequency of floods by state and if there is any trend up or down. I am currently looking at the number of federal disaster declarations by state that involve flooding since 2000 and the number since 2010 (to pick up the trend). For the trend I was thinking percent of floods from 2000 to 2016 that occurred since 2010.
I am uncertain that this approach to the trend really captures it. It may be too small of a timeframe. Does anyone have any ideas about how to approach this frequency and trend of floods by state issue? Any thoughts would be appreciated.

If you are interested in the data:
States with most federal floods since 2000 – KY (24), MO (23), NE, TN, WV (21), AR (20)

States with least federal floods since 2000 – ID, IN (0), SC, MD, IL (1)

States with highest percentage of floods since 2010 – CO, WY, SC (100%), MT (83%), NC (80%), SD (71%), IA, NM (70%)

States with lowest percentage of floods since 2010 – VA, DE, IL, MD, ID, IN (0%), OH (8%), HI (16%), PA (22%)

Overall there have been 512 federal flood declarations since 2000. 222 (43%) of those have been in 2010 or later.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
180. Patrap
5:28 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
179. weathermanwannabe
5:26 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
The jet has pushed up into Texas quite a bit from this morning:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
178. 62901IL
5:20 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Quoting 164. dabirds:

Heard peak will be around Carbondale, IL. Gearing up for big tourist influx down there to view it.


Yeah...I cannot wait!

Also, $pringfield issued a Flood Watch. Who among y'all thinks I'll get one too?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
177. Patrap
5:18 PM GMT on March 08, 2016


NOAA Storm Prediction Center

An Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight
Severe storms will continue moving east-northeast across central and eastern Texas and vicinity today. Another round of severe storms is forecast to develop beginning later today and expanding overnight -- mainly across Texas and most particularly from the Hill Country eastward to encompass much of the Texas coastal area.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
176. nymore
5:16 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Quoting 169. Patrap:

The Solar Eclipse can been seen LIVE on the intranets.

We have that capability ...,

"Gee"


Experiencing something on the internet and experiencing it live in person, yea almost the same thing. Rolls eyes walks away shaking head.

On the weather front warm 40f and drizzle with foggy conditions, snow melting nicely
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
175. weathermanwannabe
5:15 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Here are the morning's wind and tornado reports; gives us an idea where the worst weather is headed as the afternoon progresses; obviously a little glitch with the NWS radar mosaic (the t-storms are still there):

South Plains sector loop



today Reports Graphic


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
174. Patrap
5:11 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
173. Patrap
5:09 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
What you IT radar guys can do for me, is to fix the radars like they used to be.

Today, if one refreshes a wu radar in zoom, it auto defaults back to the default view one sees on the Home page.

That really cramps the style when trying to roll radars with TVS warnings LIVE.

Maybe try and work on dat issue.

Thanx
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
172. LargoFl
5:06 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
171. smog00
5:05 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Good article.

Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
170. Patrap
5:05 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Why the "coding breaux's" at wunderground keep adding that "s" after http in the radar tabs,....you know, your not really fooling anyone are you?


Storm totals so far

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
169. Patrap
5:03 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
The Solar Eclipse can been seen LIVE on the intranets.

We have that capability ...,

"Gee"
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
168. Patrap
5:01 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
2016, the Year the AGW forcing's dole out those Record PWATS globally.





Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
167. LindyVirginIslander
5:00 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Quoting 147. justmehouston:

Just a nice, overcast, cool, drizzly morning so far for me.
Wasn't raining yet on my drive in but Houston drivers were acting like it was ..saw two accidents on my six mile jaunt.
Anyone figure out a way that we can find sar? We need a WU search and rescue team for occasions like this.


Hi there

Check your email, okay

-L
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
166. ChiThom
4:55 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
It's not a record, but 68° in Chicagoland, right now, is way above normal (44°). I'm going out to take some pictures of the flowers!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
165. yonzabam
4:49 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Quoting 159. DeepSeaRising:

Storms SE of Houston to intensify quickly, maybe producing short live tornadoes. Where will that southern branch build in. Going to be impressive when it does. We should go ahead and say it. This is not normal.


It is now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
164. dabirds
4:49 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Quoting 161. Xyrus2000:



A peak total eclipse will occur over the continental US next year. Greatest extent will be in western Kentucky but the path of totality will pass by Nashville. So if you want to get your country and bluegrass on while saying hi to the king and enjoying an astronomical phenomena, head to Nashville August 21st. :)

Path Of Eclipse
Heard peak will be around Carbondale, IL. Gearing up for big tourist influx down there to view it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
163. dabirds
4:46 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Already 63 in S C IL, dew pt is 52, 29.95" & S wind gust around 30, prob 10-15 avg. 68 high forecast as clouds arrive and slow heating. Rain supposed to start around midnight here if last night's TV runs to be trusted.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
162. Xyrus2000
4:40 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Quoting 143. ACSeattle:


So, if AGW is true then there could not possibly have been spells of above average temperatures around Greenland in 1908? Is this what you are saying? Seriously?


Yes, I do believe that is what he/she is implying. I rank that statement at about 2.5 facepalms.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
161. Xyrus2000
4:37 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Quoting 110. LargoFl:

ABC......Get ready for a total solar eclipse when the moon obscures the sun, darkening the skies and casting a spectacular shadow.

The bad news: Chances are you're one of the billions of people who won't have a front-row seat to the spectacle in the sky this week. ...tonight Tuesday

A total solar eclipse will be visible to people in parts of southeast Asia, while people in parts of Alaska, Hawaii, Guam and American Samoa will be able to enjoy a partial solar eclipse, according to NASA.



A peak total eclipse will occur over the continental US next year. Greatest extent will be in western Kentucky but the path of totality will pass by Nashville. So if you want to get your country and bluegrass on while saying hi to the king and enjoying an astronomical phenomena, head to Nashville August 21st. :)

Path Of Eclipse
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
160. RitaEvac
4:25 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
I've got a dewpoint at 70, we are primed and ready to go.

Coast is under coastal flood warning with tides coming over low lying roads such as on Bolivar Rd and west Galveston Bay near Seabrook such as Toddville Rd might have issues
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
159. DeepSeaRising
4:23 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Storms SE of Houston to intensify quickly, maybe producing short live tornadoes. Where will that southern branch build in. Going to be impressive when it does. We should go ahead and say it. This is not normal.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
158. justmehouston
4:21 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Okay, was trying to quote Pat and WU didnt like it

Was mentioning that I am listening to KPRC950 out of San Antonio and they mentioned earlier about hearing sirens ...

They are pretty nonchalant about the severe weather in the area
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
157. Patrap
4:19 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 1018 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 943 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 932 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 927 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 922 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
TORNADO WARNING     AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 916 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 912 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 859 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 851 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 836 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 827 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 826 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 802 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 756 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 750 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 746 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 743 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 737 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 725 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
156. Patrap
4:17 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Orleans Parish


Coastal Flood AdvisoryIssued: 3:55 AM CST Mar. 8, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 6 am Wednesday to 6 PM
CST Thursday...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a coastal
Flood Advisory... which is in effect from 6 am Wednesday to 6 PM
CST Thursday.

* Coastal flooding... all Gulf coastal areas from the mouth of the
Atchafalaya River to the Mississippi-Alabama state line are
expected to experience tides up to 2 feet above normal levels.

* Timing... early morning Wednesday and again late Wednesday
through Thursday.

* Impacts... little to minor impacts early Wednesday. Minor flooding
of low lying coastal raodways and areas normally subject to
coastal flooding during abnormal high tides outside protection
levees late Wednesday through Thursday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
155. RitaEvac
4:17 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Cells increasing on Houston radar

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
154. JRRP7
4:07 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
Combined SST + Atmospheric analogs for February concur with a change to -ENSO by June, agreeing with models.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
153. Azman67
3:53 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Cali still needs a huge amount of water!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
152. JRRP7
3:53 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
151. elioe
3:41 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Foehn wind forecast to Finland next week.

Welcome spring, even if temporary! I can't wait for the snow to melt, and a good bicycle riding season to begin.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
150. nrtiwlnvragn
3:40 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
GOES East Rapid Scan Visible
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
149. Seattleite
3:39 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Tomorrow looks to be an interesting weather day: floods, winds, snow and rain oh my! On another note, me thinks the NWS is a little depressed over our record rainy weather... it's still raining and rain is forecast the rest of the period. Oh and no thunder on my birthday =(, but it was great anyway, thanks for the birthday wishes!

An excerpt from the Seattle NWS Discussion:

AS HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THERE IS MUCH TO TALK ABOUT WHEN IT COMES TO THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THIS BEING A VERY WET AND WINDY SYSTEM...THUS...THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT HAVE ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE COAST. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE THAT THESE WINDS MAY ALSO BE PRESENT FOR NORTHERN INLAND AREAS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME MODELS SEEM CONTENT TO KEEP HIGHER SPEED WINDS IN THAT AREA OUT OVER THE WATER. WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DAY SHIFT CAN REVISIT WITH FRESH DATA. SPEAKING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FLOOD WATCH...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH QPF VALUES OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...SO LOOKS LIKE THOSE NEW FLOOD VALUES FOR THE SKOKOMISH ARE ABOUT TO BE MADE USEOF. AS IF THAT WAS NOT ENOUGH...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING SOME SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAINS AS IT PASSES THROUGH ALSO. RIGHT NOW...EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RIGHT AROUND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR AND LIFTING SNOW LEVELS BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY PROVE A LIMITING FACTOR. THAT SAID...WILL OPT TO WAIT ON ISSUING ANYTHING IN THIS VEIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WORTH KEEPING IN MIND IF MAKING ANY PLANS FOR THOSE AREAS. LASTLY...THE COUPLING OF THIS PASSING STRONG LOW AND HIGH TIDE MAY MAKE FOR INTERESTING SURF/TIDAL ISSUES. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP MOIST GOING INTO THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY ...GIVING A BRIEF RESPITE IN RAIN THAT LOOKS TO EXTEND INTO LATE MORNING...MAYBE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. SMR

.LONG TERM...BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER TROUGH JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LOOKS TO GET DRAWN UP INTO THE PAC NW BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CANADIAN COAST...RESULTING IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A WET WEEKEND...SURPRISING ABSOLUTELY NO ONE. MODELS DO START TO DIVERGE HERE THOUGH. THE ECMWF...IN WHAT IS STARTING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE SADISTIC...KEEPS THE LOW SPINNING OFF THE CANADIAN COAST SENDING WAVE AFTER WAVE OF PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...PUSHING THE LOW THROUGH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY AND BRINGING A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR NEXT TUESDAY. SMR

Sadistic models eh? I bet Arkansas might agree...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
148. HouGalv08
3:30 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
At the big airport in Houston at work. Rain has started---the first wave of just how much?
Guess we will know by Thursday evening.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
147. justmehouston
3:25 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Just a nice, overcast, cool, drizzly morning so far for me.
Wasn't raining yet on my drive in but Houston drivers were acting like it was ..saw two accidents on my six mile jaunt.
Anyone figure out a way that we can find sar? We need a WU search and rescue team for occasions like this.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
146. JRRP7
3:12 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
145. Qazulight
2:52 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Quoting 94. Gearsts:

Is difficult say what i want because my english sucks and it looks like i'm 4.
Pero no estoy enojado, era mas como comentario sarcastico para admitir que tienes razon aunque no entendiste bien lo que dije. Cada vez que yo escribo algo en el blog tengo que usar a google para corregir la majoria de los disparate que yo escribo.


Keep on hammering at it. There are no final exams, and you only get better. You probably have an advantage because you are forced to be efficient with your words.

I might recommend a fun book, it might help, it might not, but the book is fun no less.

http://www.amazon.com/Thing-Explainer-Complicated -Stuff-Simple/dp/0544668251/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid =1457448627&sr=8-1&keywords=thing+explainer

Written by the author of XKCD.

https://what-if.xkcd.com/146/
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
144. HaoleboySurfEC
2:51 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Agree with sentiment wholeheartedly.

Quoting 141. ACSeattle:


You contribute much valuable information to this blog.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
143. ACSeattle
2:48 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Quoting 138. Sandy82579:

Global warming in 1908, oh my:

http://www.aol.com/article/2016/03/07/iceberg-tha t-sank-titanic-estimated-to-be-100-000-years-old/2 1324242/?intcmp=hplnws

"Unusually warm temperatures is one hypothesis for why the breakaway occurred around 1908." - 4th paragraph.

So, if AGW is true then there could not possibly have been spells of above average temperatures around Greenland in 1908? Is this what you are saying? Seriously?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
142. LuckySD
2:46 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Big line of storms with lots and lots of rain.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
141. ACSeattle
2:44 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Quoting 94. Gearsts:

Is difficult say what i want because my english sucks and it looks like i'm 4.
Pero no estoy enojado, era mas como comentario sarcastico para admitir que tienes razon aunque no entendiste bien lo que dije. Cada vez que yo escribo algo en el blog tengo que usar a google para corregir la majoria de los disparate que yo escribo.

You contribute much valuable information to this blog.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
140. Qazulight
2:42 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Quoting 76. KoritheMan:



You posted a graph showing the February AMO spanning 66 years then claimed there was a correlation just because SSTs were cool then and inactive seasons followed. If you were to use that as evidence of your claim in any academic setting, you'd be torn asunder.

Correlation does not imply causation


Actually, there is a whole branch of. . . Science? . . .Business? that uses correlation. It is known as Big Data. The idea is that there are no samples taken, rather everything is measured. One of the slogans is "N equals All"

I am not say that the original poster has a point. Just saying the old, Correlation does not mean Causation meme does not have the touch stone value it did have.

Additionally, humans use correlation, or inductive reasoning regularly. Robert Cialdini in his book Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion provides examples how and why we must use inductive reasoning which is pretty much based on correlation. He also shows the pitfalls and how these short cuts are used and abused.

https://pdfbooksfreedownload.wordpress.com/2014/1 2/03/download-influence-the-psychology-of-persuasi on-pdf-ebook/

I recommend every person that ever thinks of debating on the internet, or walking into Walmart read the book and study it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
139. hydrus
2:39 PM GMT on March 08, 2016
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather