El NIño’s Long-Awaited Grand Performance Is On Its Way to California


By: Bob Henson , 6:07 PM GMT on March 02, 2016

After a crushingly dry February, it looks as if early to mid-March is likely to bring California some of the serious moisture it needs from the 2015-16 El Niño event--and perhaps some unwanted flooding and mudslides. Long-range models are increasingly confident that the low-latitude jet stream that’s been dodging the California coast for weeks will finally plow into the state over the next 10 to 15 days, hauling copious amounts of Pacific moisture inland with it. The last few runs of the GFS and ECMWF models have become especially bullish on the development of one or two atmospheric rivers (ARs) heading into California over the next week or two. Roughly 30% to 50% of annual precipitation in the West Coast states occurs from just a few AR events per year.

The first significant storm should plow into northern and central California this coming weekend, followed by a stronger series of storms affecting most of the state during the following week. The 0Z Wednesday operational run of the GFS model doused parts of the central and northern California and Sierra Nevada with 10” to 20” of precipitation over the ten-day period ending at 7:00 pm EST Friday, March 11. The GEFS and ECMWF ensembles, though less dramatic than individual runs, still paint a very wet picture for the state. It remains unclear how far into southern California the biggest rains and mountain snows will extend. The outlook for very heavy precipitation is a bit more confident from central California all the way north to Washington. Already, some California reservoirs are releasing water: though this may seem odd while the region is still in drought, it’s a long-employed strategy to help reduce the odds of flooding when torrential rains are predicted.

The stormy weather is coming just in time for the close of the El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign being conducted by NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory. The project includes flights from a NOAA Gulfstream IV hurricane-hunting aircraft, as well as hundreds of radiosonde and dropsonde launches profiling the remote Pacific atmosphere. An extra week has been added to the project’s flight schedule, which will now run through March 10. See our blog post from January 12 for more on this project.


Figure 1. The 7-day forecast for precipitation from 12Z (7:00 am EST) Wednesday, March 2, 2016, through Wednesday, March 9. Another round of intense precipitation may also affect California late next week, just beyond the range of this forecast. Image credit: NOAA/WPC.


With a little help from the MJO
The Madden-Julian Oscillation can be credited, at least in part, for the precipitation prospects over California. This recurrent cycle of tropical showers and thunderstorms has an active phase that has recently pushed eastward to the eastern Pacific, with a suppressed phase on the opposite side of the global tropics, over the Maritime Continent. Acting in tandem with the state of El Niño itself, the active MJO phase will enhance the moisture available to be drawn from the tropics into the subtropics, where the juicy air can be entrained into midlatitude storms and any atmospheric rivers approaching California. By later in March, when the active phase has moved to the Maritime Continent, a suppressed phase should follow on its heels over the eastern Pacific. “This could temper the favorable intraseasonal/seasonal state that drives California precipitation,” said Michael Ventrice (The Weather Company). As a result, West Coast rains and mountain snows may well decrease again in the latter half of March, at least for a week or two.


Figure 2. Integrated water vapor transport (IVT) projected to be heading toward California by the 00Z Wednesday GFS model run at 00Z Sunday, March 6 (7:00 pm EST Saturday). IVT incorporates the amount of moisture in the atmosphere as well as how quickly it’s moving. The channel of moisture heading toward central California includes IVT of greater than 750 kg/m/s. IVT is used by many researchers and forecasters to identify and track the evolution of atmospheric rivers. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.


The flop that was February in California
Only a month ago, there was good reason for drought-stricken Californians to believe that the state was on its way to at least partial recovery after four years of punishing drought. Several major storms had pushed snowpack just above the seasonal average in the crucial Sierra Nevada range, which supplies about a third of the state’s water supply through snowmelt. The hope was that February and March would consolidate these early gains with at least a few more wet-but-not-damaging storms.

Then came February--a disappointingly dry month for any winter, much less an El Niño one. The month was dominated by an upper-level ridge that blocked Pacific storms and allowed temperatures to hit record levels beneath clear, sunny skies. It wasn’t quite the winter-long Ridiculously Resilient Ridge that marked the last couple of years, but it was enough to tamp down the modest precipitation surpluses across many areas. Most parts of the state got only a paltry 10-20% of average precipitation in February, as noted by Jan Null (Golden Gate Weather Services). Four major cities--San Diego, Los Angeles (Downtown), Sacramento (Executive Airport), and San Jose--saw their warmest February on record. By month’s end, the Sierra snowpack had dwindled to 85% of its typical water equivalent for the date.

What’s especially striking is how the November-to-February period turned the West Coast precipitation pattern typical of strong El Niño events on its ear. Seattle gets about twice the moisture of Los Angeles between November and February in an average year--roughly 21” vs. 10” (see Figure 3). Strong El Niño events tend to boost LA’s rainfall substantially, with little effect on Seattle’s. This time around, Los Angeles netted just 4.54” from November through February, while Seattle racked up an amazing 32.91”. In fact, by some measures, Seattle is having the wettest winter in its history, and even more heavy rain is on the way (see Figure 1 above). WU weather historian Christopher Burt takes a closer look at the precipitation to date across California in his latest post.


Figure 3. November-February precipitation totals for Seattle, San Francisco, and Los Angeles for each of the El Niño seasons classified as “strong” or “very strong” by NOAA since 1950. Image credit: Christopher Burt.


What kept the rain away?
It’s not uncommon to get a two- or three-week break between winter storms over California, especially toward the south, but the duration of the February mini-drought in the midst of a powerful El Niño was a puzzler for experts and everyday Californians alike. Data gathered throughout the month by NOAA’s field project may help shed light on what happened. One obvious factor: a change in the equatorial showers and thunderstorms (convection) that typically lead to El Niño impacts on a broader scale. Instead of the convection shifting to the eastern tropical Pacific, as is typical during a strong El Niño, most of the storminess in February was centered over the central Pacific. The downstream effects of this dislocation likely played a role in the West Coast ridging and the dearth of major California storms.


Figure 4. Sea surface temperatures (relative to seasonal average) for February 15, 1998 (top) and February 15, 2016 (bottom). Image credit: NASA.

Along with the displaced convection, the west-to-east gradient in sea-surface temperature across the tropical Pacific has been substantially weaker than it was during other strong El Niño events of modern times. The eastern tropical Pacific has been plenty warm: sea surface temperatures in the crucial Niño3.4 measuring region were 3.1°C (5.6°F) above average in the week of November 18. That’s the warmest weekly departure in NOAA records going back to 1990. What’s been absent, for the most part, is the horseshoe-shaped region of cooler-than-average water that typically cradles the west end of the El Niño equatorial warming, extending from Indonesia toward the northeast and southeast (see Figure 4, top, from February 1998). “These anomalies just never materialized, perhaps due to the background warming trend, or some other currently unknown reason,” said Klaus Wolter (NOAA/ESRL).

Likewise, the east-to-west trade winds across the tropical Pacific have not weakened or reversed as much as in previous strong El Niño events. “In January 1983 and 1998, it was very cool west of the Date Line, especially in the Northern Hemisphere,” pointed out Kevin Trenberth (National Center for Atmospheric Research). “This year it’s at least 1°C warmer. The gradients along the equator are much less. So the reversal in the trade winds is nowhere near as extensive or as strong as it was in those two events.”

All of these factors have thrown sand in the cogs of the El Niño machine, cutting back on its ability to synchronize ocean and atmosphere across the tropical Pacific. “Every El Niño has its own character and gets modulated by other effects,” Trenberth noted. Despite its idiosyncrasies, the El Niño machine of 2015-16 is far from broken right now. Although the West Coast response to this El Niño hasn’t followed the playbook, many other parts of the world have seen prototypical El Niño conditions over the last few months. These include:

Drought, fires and severe air pollution over Indonesia late last year
—A reduced summer monsoon over India, plus catastophic autumn rains in far southeast India (both consistent with El Niño)
Increasing heat and drought across northeast Brazil, along with significant drought relief over the hard-hit Sao Paolo region
—The exacerbation of a severe multiyear drought in southern Africa
—Warmer-than-average winter temperatures across Canada and the northern U.S. (in fact, virtually all of the contiguous U.S. saw a warmer-than-average winter)
—Wet conditions and enhanced severe weather across the Gulf Coast and Florida


Figure 5. The mean value of model-generated departures from average precipitation for each month from November through April during strong El Niño events. The maps are based on an ensemble of 130 simulations of weather from 1979 to 2014. Image credit: Andrew Hoell, NOAA/ESRL.


It’s the whole wet season that counts
Ever since last autumn, when it became clear this El Niño was likely to be among the biggest on record, experts warned not to expect an entire winter chock-full of heavy rain over California. Seasonal forecasts from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center trended toward a wet winter, to be sure, but they were amply caveated with the small but real chance that precipitation could wind up below average. The importance of El Niño’s strength in determining the California outcome was highlighted in a paper published this winter in Geophysical Research Letters. To get around the problem of small sample size, lead author Andrew Hoell (NOAA/ESRL) and colleagues classified each winter from 1979 to 2014 based on its Niño3.4 temperatures through that period. Then they simulated the weather over that 35-year period a total of 130 times, using three different models primed with the actual evolution of SSTs, sea ice, greenhouse gases, and ozone. The resulting ensemble thus offered 130 different takes on how a given series of El Niño events might influence California rain and snow.

Not too surprisingly, strong El Niño events are most likely to make California wet. During a strong event, the study found that Northern California is roughly five times more likely to get a winter with 150% of average precipitation, with a near-zero chance of getting less than 50% of average. The less intuitive outcome is that moderate and weak El Niños showed only a small (and less reliable) ramp-up in average precipitation. In southern California, the effect of a strong El Niño was even greater: for such events, the models showed a near-zero chance of getting less than 75% of normal November-to-April precipitation.

If it were to stay most dry in southern California this March and April, that near-zero chance would become a reality. However, it appears that March is just as climatologically likely as any other month to produce a bumper crop of rainfall relative to average across the region during a strong El Niño (see Figure 5 above). There is still plenty of room for a “Miracle March” to boost the entire water-year outlook, as this month just might manage to do.

We’ll be back with our next post on Friday.

Bob Henson


Figure 6. Panorama of the scanning X-Band radar installed in San Francisco in support of the NOAA 2016 El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign Image credit: Francesc Junyent, CSU/CIRA.


Figure 7. Participants confer at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder at a daily forecast briefing for the NOAA 2016 El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign. Image credit: Barb DeLuisi.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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259. Xulonn
2:24 PM GMT on March 04, 2016
.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
258. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:19 PM GMT on March 04, 2016
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
257. weathermanwannabe
2:04 PM GMT on March 04, 2016
Good Morning. It is crystal clear from all the recent global heat records-anomalies of the past few years (and now continuing into Jan-Feb 2016) that we have crossed the rubicon into a rapidly warming world at this point. That will have huge consequences around the world in terms of water shortages, crop failures, migration issues and political unrest over the next few decades. This bigger question is how mankind will rise, or fall, to the challenge of climate change in this modern world context.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
256. barbamz
12:37 PM GMT on March 04, 2016
WFP says 16 mln face hunger in southern Africa, emergency looms
Source: Reuters - Fri, 4 Mar 2016 11:55 GMT
JOHANNESBURG, March 4 (Reuters) - Almost 16 million people face hunger in Southern Africa because of a drought exacerbated by an El Nino weather pattern and that number could climb to almost 50 million, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) said on Friday. ...

U.S. sends elite disaster experts to respond to Ethiopia drought
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Thu, 3 Mar 2016 19:05 GMT
NAIROBI, March 3 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - The United States is sending an elite team of disaster experts to respond to Ethiopia's worst drought in 50 years, it said on Thursday. ...
"The worst impacts of this drought still lie ahead," USAID said in a statement. "The scale and severity of this crisis is expected to far outstrip available resources."
Ethiopia's spring rains started in late February but many farmers do not have seeds. ...


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
255. MahFL
12:25 PM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 248. plantmoretrees:



Sweet ride! Kona bikes used to be made right here in whatcom county, wa.


I have a Marin like this one, I don't ride it currently though :(
And yes it is pink !

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
254. vis0
11:39 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 207. BaltimoreBrian:



bwi, what a wonderful, superior response! :) I do have a Trek bike, which I ride a lot, but sometimes I love roaring on my Ducati too. Is your snow sticking yet?
Hey Dakster, Nativesun, baltimorebrian, SassyBamaRebel   (okay last name added cause i like how it sounds)

look you like bikes SOOOO much here is a BMW, well for Dyslexics like me for most others a BWM (BikeWashingMachine), whats that Washi115? ...ah... quarters go in the pocket of the captain?

LookawaytoloweraGW.gif
 

apology misplaced Nativesun in aniGIF.

Tried to upload a 5MB aniGIF but my image sites are acting up...probably think they'll get an OSCAR.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
253. yonzabam
11:16 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Excellent Guardian article here, on the recent flood of annual and monthly global temperature records. Apparently, February 2016 is set to blow January out of the water as the greatest monthly temperature anomaly on record.

As this is the second year of a record El Nino, you'd be excused for thinking that El Nino is responsible for the great majority of the extra heat. But, rather worryingly, it might not be.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
252. vis0
6:41 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 223. justmehouston:


Well ..I'm gonna need your number then ...
Look, if something were up in our area the people on this blog would be commenting about it....

this i thought i posted with comment# but the site it was hosted on shut for upgrade VENTING:: Of the other 2 sites i use one reached its kb limit (time to spring clean) and other also upgrading. It took me 90 mins to find another aniGIF hosting site (allows over 1mb of file.)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
251. HurricaneHunterJoe
6:36 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 247. PedleyCA:



That is about an Inch for here...


Let's keep our fingers crossed!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
250. Dakster
6:35 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
I won't ride motorcycles any more... Although I admit that the polaris slingshot is looking rather nice.

Problem for me with two or three wheeled motorized vehicles is that ice and snow (except for this year) are typically on the roads expect for June - August. So it really means a lot of money invested for only a few months of being able to ride.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
249. plantmoretrees
6:26 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 111. BaltimoreBrian:

I highly recommend the Ducati Streetfighter. Fuel efficient, fun, and under $14,000. I have one. So should you. Click picture to expand.






Trying to picture what my wife would do if I rolled home on one of those…..









Well I guess I'll stick with the pedal power, better for my health :-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
248. plantmoretrees
6:17 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 140. bwi:



I highly recommend the Kona Big Rove. Zero fossil fuel, totally badass, and under $1,400. No smelly fumes, no stupid noise. I have one. So should you.



Sweet ride! Kona bikes used to be made right here in whatcom county, wa. Now china, although they did just open a large showroom/trials course in Bellingham. Always liked my 1989 Trek 990 mtn bike, put road slicks on it and biked to school n work the 7 yrs I lived in town%u2026rain or shine. Have a serious full suspension GT mtn bike now but am always happy to let a nephew or friend ride it while I school them on the trail with the old road warrior.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
247. PedleyCA
6:04 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 245. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Still saying rain for Sun/Mon for Soo Cal




That is about an Inch for here...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
246. swflurker
6:03 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
If it's gets real bad, your welcome to stay at my house. Might be a drive, but it should be safe.


Quoting 232. pureet1948:



I know. It might be a major event.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
245. HurricaneHunterJoe
6:00 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Still saying rain for Sun/Mon for Soo Cal

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
244. plantmoretrees
5:58 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 237. vis0:

almost can read yer comment problem is Bucsboltsfan wont share ...gimmmeee!! :- P.

WHERE is SAR2401? since the surprise nado outbreak in Bama-south have not seen a post by sar2401.



Oh no, I hope he's OK. I was going to write sar in for prez…that is if you run as his veep vis0. I can almost see the campain photo shot of him with his AK47, shirtless, radar dog at his side, how could he loose?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
243. pureet1948
5:30 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 241. vis0:


Its one of those somethings that in not being tightly wrapped like a classic LOW or negative tilting trough-LOW therefore  it receives very little attention since its shown in a static image but  if one views an AniGIF of that period via  WxModels, one knows lives are changed in that the LOW stalls or trains over them.






Lives to the east of the Houston metro, anyway.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
241. vis0
3:56 AM GMT on March 04, 2016

Quoting 221. pureet1948:




Well, it sure seems to be something. This storm system is making our local experts very, VERY nervous. Look at this from Eric Berger's Houston WX blog:

NEXT WEEK

Beginning Monday we’ll see a lot more moisture flowing in off the Gulf of Mexico, which should increase clouds. A slight chance of rain on Monday will give way to better chances on Tuesday and then for much of the rest of next week. It’s still too early to say how much rain, but I think 1 to 2 inches are likely, with some areas seeing more than that. Potentially several inches more. We’ll have to keep an eye on this pattern as it turns much more wet and perhaps unsettled.

No kidding. They're convinced we're going to have the worst storm system to drift over SE Texas since the Memorial Day floods:


THE DEEPENING OF A STRONG UPPER TROF AROUND THE BAJA TO MAKE FOR AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED
MODELS NOT BACKING OFF ON THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP CLOSED
LOW OVER NRN MEXICO AS THE TROF MOVES SLOWLY EAST. HOWEVER THE TWIST
WITH THESE RUNS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY JOG/RETROGRADE
OF THIS LOW AROUND MID WEEK. ALONG WITH THE OVERALL SLOWER TIMING
OF SAID SYSTEM...THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF CONCERNS WITH THE LONG RANGE.
THAT BEING SAID...WILL CONTINUE WITH ELEVATED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A WIDE OPEN GULF AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES (GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET
ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA). THE POTENTIAL PROBLEM(S) ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN SYSTEM ITSELF WILL HOPEFULLY BE SORTED OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. 41

Make of this what you will and call me in the morning.



Its one of those somethings that in not being tightly wrapped like a classic LOW or negative tilting trough-LOW therefore  it receives very little attention since its shown in a static image but  if one views an AniGIF of that period via  WxModels, one knows lives are changed in that the LOW stalls or trains over them.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
240. pureet1948
3:41 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 228. Bucsboltsfan:



Some rain. I think Houston had seen rain before.


Rain we've seen before Bucsboltsfan. The kind of floods we've been getting---not since I'VE lived here.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
239. Patrap
3:35 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
238. justmehouston
3:25 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 237. vis0:

almost can read yer comment problem is Bucsboltsfan wont share ...gimmmeee!! :- P.

WHERE is SAR2401? since the surprise nado outbreak in Bama-south have not seen a post by sar2401.



That's what I was thinking too ...not since Alabama storms, hope all is well with him and his family
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
237. vis0
3:09 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 198. wunderkidcayman:

Can someone please respond to me I want to make sure that my comment are indeed making it through
almost can read yer comment problem is Bucsboltsfan wont share ...gimmmeee!! :- P.

WHERE is SAR2401? since the surprise nado outbreak in Bama-south have not seen a post by sar2401.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
236. justmehouston
3:06 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Anyone seen or heard from sar? He's usually on here and there and havent seen him?
Slow time of the posting season I guess?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
235. pureet1948
2:58 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 234. Barefootontherocks:

An SPC risk area delineated on day 5 or 6 once in a while does not bear fruit, but it always bears watching - especially in Spring.
:)
No telling at this point. Stressing over weather I understand much, because you can't do anyting about it except try to arrange your life so you will stay safe.

Your met IS stressing... stressing the potential s/he is watching for next week.
:)

Later, ladies and potatoes.


Well, I do hope it STAYS potential and not reality. Over and out.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
234. Barefootontherocks
2:54 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 227. justmehouston:



And our rain chances at this time are 40%. Yes, need to watch but nothing to stress about right now, watch.
For the last two weeks I have been watching a pattern of storms on Tuesday that continue to move down the week to Saturday, as Saturday approached severe was posted for Tuesday (that's the one that you mention now)
An SPC risk area delineated on day 5 or 6 once in a while does not bear fruit, but it always bears watching - especially in Spring.
:)
Quoting 232. pureet1948:



I know. It might be a major event.
No telling at this point. Stressing over weather I understand much, because you can't do anyting about it except try to arrange your life so you will stay safe.

Your met IS stressing... stressing the potential s/he is watching for next week.
:)

Later, ladies and potatoes.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
233. pureet1948
2:47 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 227. justmehouston:



And our rain chances at this time are 40%. Yes, need to watch but nothing to stress about right now, watch.
For the last two weeks I have been watching a pattern, storms on Tuesday that continue to move down the week to Saturday, as Saturday approaches storms get moved to Tuesday (that's the one that you mention now)



I'm not stressed, but the pro mets seem to be. And when they're stressed....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
232. pureet1948
2:45 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 226. Barefootontherocks:

Not necessarily on that map, but SPC sees Day 4-8 convective outlook sees a severe risk for your area next week Tuesday. Bears watching.


I know. It might be a major event.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
231. BaltimoreBrian
2:42 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 229. Articuno:

Already down to 32 degrees down here. I had a feeling it'd get to freezing and below quicker than anticipated..
Where in MD? Temperature fallen from 35.8° to 32.7° in Federal Hill since 8 p.m. Light steady snow.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
230. justmehouston
2:38 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 229. Articuno:

Already down to 32 degrees down here. I had a feeling it'd get to freezing and below quicker than anticipated..


I dont think that Houston saw 32F this year. We never really got much cold, rainy weather that we usually have in Feb.
I missed it, tried to enjoy the evenings that got into the 40's though.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
229. Articuno
2:37 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Already down to 32 degrees down here. I had a feeling it'd get to freezing and below quicker than anticipated..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
227. justmehouston
2:30 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 226. Barefootontherocks:

Not necessarily on that map, but SPC sees Day 4-8 convective outlook sees a severe risk for your area next week Tuesday. Bears watching.


And our rain chances at this time are 40%. Yes, need to watch but nothing to stress about right now, watch.
For the last two weeks I have been watching a pattern, storms on Tuesday that continue to move down the week to Saturday, as Saturday approaches storms get moved to Tuesday (that's the one that you mention now)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
226. Barefootontherocks
2:26 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 214. pureet1948:



What am I seeing?
Not necessarily on that map, but SPC sees Day 4-8 convective outlook sees a severe risk for your area next week Tuesday. Bears watching.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
225. Dakster
2:18 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 207. BaltimoreBrian:



bwi, what a wonderful, superior response! :) I do have a Trek bike, which I ride a lot, but sometimes I love roaring on my Ducati too. Is your snow sticking yet?


I have a trek too and Volt for a vehicle. Most of the time no messy fumes other than being behind a gas car.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
224. pureet1948
2:18 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 223. justmehouston:



Well ..I'm gonna need your number then ...

Look, if something were up in our area the people on this blog would be commenting about it. There would be responses to your postings with some "need to check it out" kind of responses. 1-2" isnt really anything, and there is nothing, and I mean nothing, (and FYI even though I have been following this blog for many, many years) that indicates anything approaching Memorial Day rain/flooding event.

The people on this blog are special, and that is why I return. Sit back, read and study what is being posted, believe me, if something was up in our area we'd be reading about it.




Then, in that case, they would be more concerned about hail, high winds, and perhaps a small tornado threat, right?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
223. justmehouston
2:04 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 221. pureet1948:




Well, it sure seems to be something. This storm system is making our local experts very, VERY nervous. Look at this from Eric Berger's Houston WX blog:

NEXT WEEK

Beginning Monday we%u2019ll see a lot more moisture flowing in off the Gulf of Mexico, which should increase clouds. A slight chance of rain on Monday will give way to better chances on Tuesday and then for much of the rest of next week. It%u2019s still too early to say how much rain, but I think 1 to 2 inches are likely, with some areas seeing more than that. Potentially several inches more. We%u2019ll have to keep an eye on this pattern as it turns much more wet and perhaps unsettled.

No kidding. They're convinced we're going to have the worst storm system to drift over SE Texas since the Memorial Day floods:


THE DEEPENING OF A STRONG UPPER TROF AROUND THE BAJA TO MAKE FOR AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED
MODELS NOT BACKING OFF ON THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP CLOSED
LOW OVER NRN MEXICO AS THE TROF MOVES SLOWLY EAST. HOWEVER THE TWIST
WITH THESE RUNS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY JOG/RETROGRADE
OF THIS LOW AROUND MID WEEK. ALONG WITH THE OVERALL SLOWER TIMING
OF SAID SYSTEM...THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF CONCERNS WITH THE LONG RANGE.
THAT BEING SAID...WILL CONTINUE WITH ELEVATED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A WIDE OPEN GULF AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES (GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET
ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA). THE POTENTIAL PROBLEM(S) ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN SYSTEM ITSELF WILL HOPEFULLY BE SORTED OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. 41

Make of this what you will and call me in the morning.







Well ..I'm gonna need your number then ...

Look, if something were up in our area the people on this blog would be commenting about it. There would be responses to your postings with some "need to check it out" kind of responses. 1-2" isnt really anything, and there is nothing, and I mean nothing, (and FYI even though I have been following this blog for many, many years and I still struggle to keep up sometimes)) that indicates anything approaching Memorial Day rain/flooding event.

The people on this blog are special, and that is why I return. Sit back, read and study what is being posted, believe me, if something was up in our area we'd be reading about it.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
222. BayFog
2:02 AM GMT on March 04, 2016

Front pulled up stationary over the central Bay Area this afternoon, but hardly a drop of rain in the absence of cold air dynamics aloft. Next upstream system for tomorrow will bring light to moderate warm orographic rain ahead of the big show Saturday. Strong low level jet aligned perpendicular to the coast ranges and the Sierra will bring in heavy ppt if the forecast is correct, combining cold air dynamics plus strong upslope forcing.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
221. pureet1948
1:58 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 216. justmehouston:



Nothing



Well, it sure seems to be something. This storm system is making our local experts very, VERY nervous. Look at this from Eric Berger's Houston WX blog:

NEXT WEEK

Beginning Monday we’ll see a lot more moisture flowing in off the Gulf of Mexico, which should increase clouds. A slight chance of rain on Monday will give way to better chances on Tuesday and then for much of the rest of next week. It’s still too early to say how much rain, but I think 1 to 2 inches are likely, with some areas seeing more than that. Potentially several inches more. We’ll have to keep an eye on this pattern as it turns much more wet and perhaps unsettled.

No kidding. They're convinced we're going to have the worst storm system to drift over SE Texas since the Memorial Day floods:


THE DEEPENING OF A STRONG UPPER TROF AROUND THE BAJA TO MAKE FOR AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED
MODELS NOT BACKING OFF ON THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP CLOSED
LOW OVER NRN MEXICO AS THE TROF MOVES SLOWLY EAST. HOWEVER THE TWIST
WITH THESE RUNS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY JOG/RETROGRADE
OF THIS LOW AROUND MID WEEK. ALONG WITH THE OVERALL SLOWER TIMING
OF SAID SYSTEM...THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF CONCERNS WITH THE LONG RANGE.
THAT BEING SAID...WILL CONTINUE WITH ELEVATED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A WIDE OPEN GULF AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES (GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET
ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA). THE POTENTIAL PROBLEM(S) ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN SYSTEM ITSELF WILL HOPEFULLY BE SORTED OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. 41

Make of this what you will and call me in the morning.




Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
220. BayFog
1:54 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Like a lot of phenoms in climate, there's usually an atmospheric reaction lag to El Nino SST conditions.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
219. pureet1948
1:52 AM GMT on March 04, 2016



As far as flooding rains go, I'd say Arkansas is more in that danger than SE Texas, if this rain accumulation model is anything to go by.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
218. BaltimoreBrian
1:50 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Eric, I'm surprised the deviation from normal increased so much in February. El Niño hasn't been increasing in strength.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
217. BayFog
1:49 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 167. TimSoCal:

[ATMOSPHERIC RIVER enters, stage left]


It would be nice to see a confluence with another feeder from near Hawaii or off Mexico.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
216. justmehouston
1:48 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 214. pureet1948:



What am I seeing?


Nothing
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
215. Webberweather53
1:46 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
I think we're gonna need a bigger graph. So much for that "pause". Smh...


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
214. pureet1948
1:45 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 209. pureet1948:

Here's GFS for those of you who missed it:




What am I seeing?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
213. PedleyCA
1:45 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 212. BayFog:


Long fetch of moisture feeding into a merged jet headed for the California coast this weekend.

Bring it.....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
212. BayFog
1:38 AM GMT on March 04, 2016

Long fetch of moisture feeding into a merged jet headed for the California coast this weekend.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
211. PedleyCA
1:33 AM GMT on March 04, 2016

77.2F here today, normal 69/45 waiting for the wetness.....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
210. BaltimoreBrian
1:31 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Quoting 192. dabirds:

Xulonn, was wondering as we approach equal day/night hours, what is the /- in summer/winter @ 8.5? I'm guessing about an hour or so?

Cloudy and cool in S C IL this afternoon, about 40 for high, just under 30". Had some light rain earlier. 50's & 60's in forecast after mid 40s tomorrow, but after weekend, only about one 24 hr period w/out a chance of rain. Guess some of that Pac moisture combines w/ Gulf, but if it's warmer, don't really care. Expect at least one more snow though.
At latitude 8.5 the difference between the longest and shortest days of the year is 59 minutes.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
209. pureet1948
1:23 AM GMT on March 04, 2016
Here's GFS for those of you who missed it:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather