What to Expect from El Niño: North America

By: Bob Henson , 3:16 PM GMT on July 28, 2015

We’re now well into the ramp-up phase of what promises to be one of the top three El Niño events of the last 60-plus years. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Niño3.4 region--an area straddling the eastern tropical Pacific--are the most widely accepted index for the oceanic evolution of El Niño. NOAA announced in its weekly ENSO update on Monday (see PDF) that Niño3.4 SSTs were running 1.6°C degrees above the seasonal average for the week ending Monday. While this is down slightly from a peak of 1.7°C the week before, Michelle L’Heureux reminds us in NOAA’s ENSO Blog that minor weekly variations aren’t worth getting too worked up about. The latest value still keeps the current El Niño in the “strong” category (Niño3.4 SSTs at least 1.5°C above average). Unusually warm waters now extend from the South America coast westward to the International Date Line in a classic El Niño signature (see Figure 1), with widespread above-average SSTs at least partially related to El Niño extending northward across much of the northeast Pacific. For much of 2014, the atmosphere failed to respond to several brief warmings of the eastern tropical Pacific, but now both ocean and air are locked into the synchrony that builds and sustains the strongest El Niño events. Westerly winds bursts continue to kick up across the tropical Pacific, pushing warm water downward and eastward in the form of lumbering, downwelling Kelvin waves that push toward the shores of South America, where they act to suppress the normal upwelling of cooler water.


Figure 1. Sea surface temperatures for the week ending July 22 were more than 1°C above average from the eastern tropical Pacific northward through much of the northeast Pacific, with pockets of 2 - 4°C above average evident near the equator. Image credit: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.


Figure 2. Precipitation departures from average for the period November through March for the five events characterized as “strong” (SSTs in the Niño3.4 region of at least 1.5°C above average for at least three overlapping three-month periods). The final two events, 1982-83 and 1997-98, are characterized by Jan Null as “very strong,” with SST departures of more than 2.0°C above average. Image credit: Jan Null, Golden Gate Weather Services, from data and graphics generated by NOAA/ESRL/PSD and CIRES-CU.



The only El Niño events in NOAA's 1950-2015 database comparable in strength to the one now developing occurred in 1982-83 and 1997-98. A single pair of cases is a thin framework on which to build any projections of what El Niño may bring across North America this winter. However, three other episodes since 1950 are rated as “strong” (Niño3.4 readings topping the SST threshold of +1.5°C for at least three overlapping three-month periods). Many of the far-flung atmospheric responses to El Niño become more reliable the stronger the event, so it’s wise to look especially closely at these cases, rather than simply averaging across all El Niño events.

Later this week, Jeff Masters will take a look at the global consequences of El Niño for weather and climate. In today’s post, we’ll focus on North America, which has some of the world’s clearest tie-ins to El Niño--not surprisingly, since we’re located just north of the oceanic heart of the phenomenon.

Drought-easing rains for California? Likely, but not certain
Some of the keenest interest in El Niño lies with Californians, who are suffering through Year 4 of an extreme drought that’s left Sierra snowpack in tatters and pushed statewide average temperatures far above anything on record over the last few months. The state needs a very wet winter just to get soil moisture back to near-normal levels, and a good deal more than that to bring California’s reservoirs and groundwater close to their long-term average. "It takes years to get into a drought of this severity, and it will likely take many more big storms, and years, to crawl out of it," said NASA’s Jay Famiglietti at an American Geophysical Union talk last December.

Like other strong El Niño events, this one will almost certainly last just one winter. But at least for the coming wet season, it holds encouraging odds of well-above average precipitation for California. During a strong El Niño, the subtropical jet stream is energized across the southern U.S., while the polar jet stream tends to stay north of its usual winter position or else consolidate with the subtropical jet. This gives warm, wet Pacific systems a better chance to push northeast into California. During 1997-98, downtown San Francisco scored its largest number of days with measurable rain (119) and its second wettest rainfall season (47.22”) since records began in 1849, coming in behind only 1861-62 (49.27”). The 1982-83 event was the fifth wettest in San Francisco annals, with a wet-season total of 38.17”. In downtown Los Angeles, the 1982-83 and 1997-98 seasons came in as fifth and sixth wettest, respectively, with 31.25” and 31.01”. Records began in L.A. in 1877.

Californians will need to be patient, as the biggest drenchings from a strong El Niño can take till the midwinter peak of the wet season to arrive (December can actually be drier than average). The 1997-98 season didn’t produce much more than sporadic storms until January in northern California and February over the state as a whole. The story was similar in 1982-83, which brought California its biggest storms after New Year's. This was before regular monitoring of El Niño, so scientists and the public didn't even know that a wet winter was in the cards. Jack Williams, who founded the USA TODAY weather section when the newspaper debuted in 1982, has said he doesn't recall writing a single article about El Niño in the winter of 1982-83. Things were different in 1997-98, when ocean monitoring systems caught the development of El Niño months ahead of its U.S. impact and word spread widely through traditional media and the burgeoning World Wide Web (and via Chris Farley in a brief but unforgettable “Saturday Night Live” skit).

With hopes for drought relief running so high in California, it can’t be stressed enough that El Niño shifts the odds but doesn’t guarantee the roll of the meteorological dice in any particular winter. On the plus side, the heavy rains that often accompany a strong El Niño don’t necessarily translate into major flooding damage. That threat hinges largely on the timing, intensity, and location of individual storm systems, which can cause problems during La Niña or El Niño alike.


Figure 3. A luxury home in the Orange County suburb of Laguna Niguel slips down a hillside eroded by heavy El Nino generated rains earlier on March 19, 1998. Two homes and seven condominiums were destroyed in the slide. Image credit: Vince Bucci/AFP/Getty Images.


Milder and drier a good bet for Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, western Canada
The altering of the polar and subtropical jet stream tracks fostered by El Niño can leave a big chunk of North America in the lurch, with relatively tranquil weather that tends to be warmer and drier than average. Unusually mild weather can overspread most of Canada---1998 was the nation’s warmest year on record, though 2014 didn’t pan out that way)---and the mildness often extends across the northern tier of US states from Washington to the Great Lakes. (The winter of 1997-98 was the second warmest in U.S. history.) It won’t necessarily be bone-dry in normally damp places like Washington or British Columbia, but anything less than average precipitation wouldn’t be good news for that region, which has seen wildfires taking advantage of a warm winter with little snowpack followed by a very dry spring. Cliff Mass (University of Washington) does cite one potential benefit to the Pacific Northwest this winter: “Big windstorms avoid strong El Niño years. Similar to vampires and garlic.”

Rockies snowfall: The south usually wins out
Thanks to the jet-shifting effects noted above, snowfall tends to be below average in the Northern Rockies and above average in the Southern Rockies during strong El Niños. The north-south split extends to Colorado, where northern resorts such as Steamboat Springs typically lose out to areas like the San Juan and Sangre de Cristo ranges across the southern part of the state. Along the populous Front Range from Denver to Fort Collins, El Niño hikes the odds of a big snowstorm, especially in the spring and autumn. About half of Boulder’s 12” – 14” storms occur during El Niño, and the odds of a 20” or greater storm are quadrupled during El Niño as opposed to La Niña. See this UCAR writeup for more detail.

Rainy and cool across the Gulf Coast
According to NOAA, the single most reliable El Niño outcome in the United States, occurring in more than 80% of El Niño events over the last century, is the tendency for wet wintertime conditions along and near the Gulf Coast, thanks to the juiced-up subtropical jet stream. (The same upper-level jet also tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by fostering subsidence and stable air and boosting the upper-level wind shear that inhibits tropical cyclone formation). Severe weather is often associated with El Niño during the winter months across the southeast fringes of the nation, a finding reinforced in a 2015 study led by John Allen (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) that we discussed in a March post. The study found that the risk of tornadoes across south Texas and Florida is roughly doubled during El Niño. Florida's worst outbreak on record occurred on February 22-23, 1998, during the intense 1997-98 El Niño. A total of 12 tornadoes killed 42 people, mainly in a swath running along Interstate 4 through central Florida.


Figure 4. A resident of a Kissimmee, Florida, residential complex picks up some of her belongings from what is left of her home after a tornado leveled her house and ripped through the neighborhood on February 23, 1998. Image credit: Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images.


A dry pocket in the Midwest
One fairly localized but distinct product of El Niño is a tendency for drier-than-usual winters across the lower Midwest, especially in the Ohio Valley. A typical winter brings a stream of low-pressure centers approaching the lower Midwest from either the southwest or northwest. The split stream favored by El Niño tends to push these lows either well north or well south of the Ohio Valley, leaving the area with better-than-usual odds of relatively mild temperatures and light precipitation during the core of winter.

What about the Northeast US?
Some of the bigger snowstorms on record for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast have accompanied El Niño events, but the influence of El Niño is highly conditional on other factors. The blockbuster El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 pushed temperatures across the entire Midwest and Northeast well above average, yet the ”Megapolitan” snowstorm of February 10-12, 1983, pummeled big cities along the East Coast with widespread 1-to-2-foot amounts. The most destructive winter weather event of 1997-98 was actually a multiday ice storm that paralyzed Montreal and parts of far northern New York and New England for days. And the infamous Snowmageddon of 2009-10 (see Figure 5) occurred during a moderate El Niño. One crucial element is the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a semi-cyclic atmospheric pattern that describes whether the flow from eastern North America to Europe is a strong, west-to-east channel (a positive NAO) or a more wavy, variable path (a negative NAO). Heavy snow during El Niño becomes much more likely along the eastern seaboard when a negative NAO predominates. Winter hasn’t been especially kind to the northeast U.S. and eastern Canada over the last few years, with frequent negative NAO periods leading to major winter storms and intense cold buffeting the region more than one might expect in a warming climate. In a follow-up post to this one, we took a closer look at the imminent face-off between a powerhouse El Niño and the recurrent tendency over the last few years toward cold and snow in parts of the Northeast.


Figure 5. Walkers struggle through the snow in front of the U.S. Capitol Building on February 6, 2010, in Washington, DC. The blizzard that came to be known as Snowmageddon dumped 20” to 35” of accumulations from the Washington area into southern New Jersey, paralyzing the region and snapping power lines. Image credit: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images.


Villain or welcome guest?
When all is said and done, a strong El Niño can actually be a net benefit to the US economy. A detailed analysis by climatologist Stanley Changnon, published in 2004 in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, estimated that U.S. weather associated with the big 1997-98 El Niño event led to direct losses of about $4 billion but direct gains of around $19 billion. Moreover, Changnon reckoned that hundreds more lives were saved by the lack of intense winter cold than were taken by El Niño-related storminess. Seth Borenstein and Frank Bajak make a good case in an AP story that the United States is one of the largest beneficaries of El Niño relative to other parts of the globe.

Based on NOAA data and analyses, Jan Null (Golden Gate Weather Services) has created an handy graphical guide to U.S. temperature and precipitation effects from weak, moderate, strong, and very strong El Niño and La Niña events, including composites as well as individual Nov-Mar seasons. Looking these over will give you a good sense of where El Niño’s fingerprints are crystal clear or on the muddy side. You’ll also find helpful writeups on NOAA’s ENSO Blog outlining typical U.S. El Niño impacts, including entries by Mike Halpert (June 2014) and Tom Di Liberto (June 2015).

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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420. FOREX
3:02 AM GMT on August 27, 2015
TWC tropical expert just stated the convective blowup with Erika is meaningless due to the extreme disorganization of the system.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
419. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:20 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 365. JustDucky251:



At the risk of sounding dumb, What is a Kelvin wave and how are they convectively coupled or suppressed?

Nah, that's not a dumb question at all.

Atmospheric kelvin waves are essentially analogous to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that so many people talk about; that is, eastward-propagating atmospheric features that affect rainfall patterns near the equator across the globe. There are two phases to atmospheric kelvin waves, the convectively-coupled phase and the convectively-suppressed phase. As their names would suggest, convectively-coupled kelvin waves are associated with anomalous upper-level divergence (air that pulls apart in the upper levels of the atmosphere) which leads to enhanced rainfall and an increased chance of tropical cyclone development. Convectively-suppressed waves are associated with upper-level convergence (air that collides in the upper levels of the atmosphere), which leads to suppressed rainfall and a lowered chance of tropical cyclone development.

The chart below tracks these kelvin waves. Note the convectively-suppressed kelvin wave passing across the eastern Atlantic, Africa, the Indian Ocean, and the westernmost West Pacific. Note the convectively-coupled kelvin wave pushing across the East Pacific and West Atlantic.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
418. TxnFla
7:40 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 404. cRRKampen:


Before you chastise, check out the arrogance of stupidity, formally known as the Dunning-Kruger effect.

And please teach yourself something else. It is the total distinction between arrogance and possessing knowledge.

This ain't 'humor': Many in nation tired of explaining things to idiots.

We have nothing to learn about 'human nature'. We seen absolutely all the shite of it during the climate change 'debate'. The 'human nature' that you seem to mean needs to be kicked and whipped - some sense into it. Al Gore's enlightening ways and movie did not work, there's that disgusting 'human nature' for you.

(edited DK link to point to English text)


Thank you for the D-K link. I found it very interesting. But you contradict its import with your following statement that we have "nothing to learn about human nature"!! Also, adding an 'e' to an expletive does not lessen its vulgarity or rudeness. The "arrogance of stupidity" pales in comparison to the arrogance of thinking you know everything. Your comments are often informative and worthwhile, but may I recommend Dale Carnegie's famous book How to Win Friends and Influence People? I've never used the 'ignore' funtion, but I may have to reconsider that in your case. Reasonable discussion is one thing, your diatribes and angry attitude are in a different category. This is the first comment I've made on WG, so please forgive my unfamiliarity with the format. I've been a lurker here since the days of TampaSpin and StormyW and used to love all the different input but have been very put off in recent years by the increasing bullying by the AGW acolytes on what is supposed to be a tropical weather blog. Thank you to all the many commenters who post without threats and vulgarities.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
417. ACSeattle
6:58 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 416. cRRKampen:


True. Though less convenient for back of the envelope calcs on vibrations.
I replaced a sense of wonder by a (somewhat consciously subdued) sense of awe wrt maths and to me the solutions to x^2 + 1 = 0 are real..

Only if you write it as x^2+(1,0)=(0,0)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
416. cRRKampen
5:19 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 415. ACSeattle:


You can kick "i" to the curb, if you like. i=(0,1) and (a,b)(c,d)=(ac-bd,ad+bc)

True. Though less convenient for back of the envelope calcs on vibrations.
I replaced a sense of wonder by a (somewhat consciously subdued) sense of awe wrt maths and to me the solutions to x^2 + 1 = 0 are real..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
415. ACSeattle
4:37 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 386. cRRKampen:


Will continue to use complex numbers including the imaginary unit to calculate on waves with, though :)

You can kick "i" to the curb, if you like. i=(0,1) and (a,b)(c,d)=(ac-bd,ad+bc)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
414. Grothar
4:36 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 407. RitaEvac:

Keep an eye south of Louisiana in the coming days


I have been.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
413. canyonboy
4:13 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
My 2 cents. If we can't police ourselves any post with name calling should be removed. Can't we all just get along?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
412. LargoFl
4:06 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
411. Neapolitan
3:44 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 394. K8eCane:





You come across as condescending in a big way, to which i immediately shut down to anything you have to say. If you were really interested in educating and not looking like a member of mensa to everyone else, you wouldnt do that.
While you might consider yourself highly educated in climate science, you have much much much to learn about human nature
I long ago realized that there is literally no way for a person to exhibit knowledge they possess that someone less knowledgeable won't interpret as arrogance or condescension, so I no longer worry about them. But I will let you in on a secret: when I meet people who know more than I do--and that happens a lot--I don't waste time mulling over how mean they are; instead, I seek to level the playing field by learning as much as I can, as quickly as I can so we can become peers. That's an avenue that's open to anyone and everyone, and I truly wish more people would travel that route.

Cheers...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
409. MahFL
3:35 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 407. RitaEvac:

Keep an eye south of Louisiana in the coming days


The Euro has a tropical low in the Big Bend area on Sunday.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
408. MahFL
3:33 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 384. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looks like it is going to go west into the Caribbean regardless of development or not. Hopefully, it will bring some rain for the islands that need it.


I like the BAMD, it always has any storm coming over my house, well almost everyone...which of course never happens...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
407. RitaEvac
3:32 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Keep an eye south of Louisiana in the coming days
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
406. Thrawst
3:31 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Upper level low of doom headed straight for my island chain! Bring me some storms :$


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
405. K8eCane
3:30 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 399. MahFL:



Many still do though, especially Republican politicians in the USA.



I have NO doubt that its real. I have doubts about the research until i do further investigation into the subject. I paid it no attention until it caught my attention on the blog and since then, Ive educated myself somewhat. If that makes me a denier, then I guess Im a denier. But I know Im a doubter, and thats really all that matters. I despise condescention though, probly something from childhood. As far as Im concerned they know nothing and thats a fact.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
404. cRRKampen
3:30 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 394. K8eCane:





You come across as condescending in a big way, to which i immediately shut down to anything you have to say. If you were really interested in educating and not looking like a member of mensa to everyone else, you wouldnt do that.
While you might consider yourself highly educated in climate science, you have much much much to learn about human nature

Before you chastise, check out the arrogance of stupidity, formally known as the Dunning-Kruger effect.

And please teach yourself something else. It is the total distinction between arrogance and possessing knowledge.

This ain't 'humor': Many in nation tired of explaining things to idiots.

We have nothing to learn about 'human nature'. We seen absolutely all the shite of it during the climate change 'debate'. The 'human nature' that you seem to mean needs to be kicked and whipped - some sense into it. Al Gore's enlightening ways and movie did not work, there's that disgusting 'human nature' for you.

(edited DK link to point to English text)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
403. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:29 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
402. MahFL
3:29 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 396. Climate175:

ISS will be going over Invest 94L in a couple hours.


More like 6 hours, and it will be dark by then over 94L.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
401. weathermanwannabe
3:28 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 389. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It looks like the GFS and ECMWF are coming into agreement of the Bermuda High building back in over Florida next week as we try to return to a more typical summer time pattern here with a southeast wind flow. Now that I said that I probably jinxed us and we'll remain in the troughiness.


It's going to be a "troffy" season this year with the El Nino and lower frontal trajectories so it will boil down to timing, as usual, if any CV storms actually develop into hurricanes on the way towards Conus. This issue is whether we will have any long-track storms this year and that is s big unknown.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
400. Climate175
3:27 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Small burst of convection.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
399. MahFL
3:24 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 368. JustDucky251:



... That Global Warming is real cannot be doubted...


Many still do though, especially Republican politicians in the USA.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
398. islander101010
3:23 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
by declaring 94 an invest no doubt nhc. think there is a decent shot at 94 turning into a name. looking out there 94 is the only thing out there. they like that. see what happens
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
397. FLwolverine
3:23 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 379. MrNatural:



The Greenland ice shelf is melting faster than predicted. Would someone that doubted the conservative predictions of this ice melt be a denier? Absolutely not. Doubters and deniers are not the same. Doubters are questioners that are seekers. They believe that more information may be needed to be accurate. One should never question a doubters search for the truth. Many times, deniers are folks that make decisions without a solid basis for their decsion.
Don't get tangled up the words. If the person doubted the conservative estimates for some valid reason (not just a blatant statement that it can't happen!) AND was willing to change their opinion based on the facts on the ground, then that person is a doubter not a denier, just as Xyrus and you both said. The test in distinguishing deniers from doubters is that deniers rarely (if ever) will answer the question: what would it take for you to accept that climate change is happening, that humans are responsible, that the results will be bad? Go ahead, try the experiment, ask someone who says they are just a doubter. The answer will define them.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
396. Climate175
3:21 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
ISS will be going over Invest 94L in a couple hours.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
395. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:21 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Just to clarify.

doubt
to be uncertain about; consider questionable or unlikely; hesitate to believe.
2.
to distrust.
3.
Archaic. to fear; be apprehensive about.
verb (used without object)
4.
to be uncertain about something; be undecided in opinion or belief.
noun
5.
a feeling of uncertainty about the truth, reality, or nature of something.
6.
distrust.
7.
a state of affairs such as to occasion uncertainty.
8.
Obsolete. fear; dread.
Idioms
9.
beyond the shadow of a doubt, with certainty; definitely.
Also, beyond a doubt, beyond doubt.
10.
in doubt, in a state of uncertainty or suspense:
His appointment to the position is still in doubt.
11.
no doubt,
probably.
certainly:
There is no doubt an element of truth in what you say.
12.
without doubt, unquestionably; certainly.

denial
noun
1.
an assertion that something said, believed, alleged, etc., is false:
Despite his denials, we knew he had taken the purse. The politician issued a denial of his opponent's charges.
2.
refusal to believe a doctrine, theory, or the like.
3.
disbelief in the existence or reality of a thing.
4.
the refusal to satisfy a claim, request, desire, etc., or the refusal of a person making it.
5.
refusal to recognize or acknowledge; a disowning or disavowal:
the traitor's denial of his country; Peter's denial of Christ.
6.
Law. refusal to acknowledge the validity of a claim, suit, or the like; a plea that denies allegations of fact in an adversary's plea:
Although she sued for libel, he entered a general denial.
7.
sacrifice of one's own wants or needs; self-denial.

doubting is being unsure whether even if you have done the research, maybe you don't have the clarity just yet or claim something 100% truth yet, but overtime will definitely yield a result. Ever heard the saying giving the benefit of the doubt?

denialism is a form of willful ignorance, you deny something is happening when in reality it is happening, basically you have a problem, but you choose not to believe it. For example alcoholics refuse to believe they are alcoholics, but you can quite clearly see they drink everyday or have an eye-opener and it impacts their judgement. Something along those lines.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
394. K8eCane
3:16 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 390. Neapolitan:

To which of Xyrus's points are you disagreeing? That those who doubt science because of their own lack of knowledge and understanding are deniers? That doubters--aka skeptics--can be convinced by evidence, but that deniers won't be? That there is a lot of scientific evidence in regards to climate science? That Google research can address most of the doubts a person might have? Or that people here in this forum can help?

At any rate, I'd be curious to hear about any of the "many" energy input/output sources climate scientists haven't taken into consideration. That is, what are the "gaps" of which you speak? Also, while I agree that we're not yet completely sure of the precise percentages each factor contributes to warming, I'm not sure how that correlates with Xyrus'






You come across as condescending in a big way, to which i immediately shut down to anything you have to say. If you were really interested in educating and not looking like a member of mensa to everyone else, you wouldnt do that.
While you might consider yourself highly educated in climate science, you have much much much to learn about human nature
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
393. JustDucky251
3:12 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 390. Neapolitan:

To which of Xyrus's points are you disagreeing? That those who doubt science because of their own lack of knowledge and understanding are deniers? That doubters--aka skeptics--can be convinced by evidence, but that deniers won't be? That there is a lot of scientific evidence in regards to climate science? That Google research can address most of the doubts a person might have? Or that people here in this forum can help?

At any rate, I'd be curious to hear about any of the "many" energy input/output sources climate scientists haven't taken into consideration. That is, what are the "gaps" of which you speak? Also, while I agree that we're not yet completely sure of the precise percentages each factor contributes to warming, I'm not sure how that correlates with Xyrus' comment.


I apologize for not being able to give a thorough answer at this time because I am in the middle of an exhibit move. I will, however, work up a proper response and would be glad to discuss the issue with you on a civil basis when I have time. It is a fascinating subject and worthy of discussion, but unfortunately not for the next few weeks. I like to have time when I am discussing interesting topics.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
392. Climate175
3:09 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
391. LostTomorrows
3:07 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Who else thinks that the system racing well east of Nova Scotia is being totally ignored? Is that the one models were picking up on a ways back?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
390. Neapolitan
3:03 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 368. JustDucky251:



I would like to respectfully disagree. There are many sources of energy gain or loss that have not been fully integrated into the very complex programs analyzing Global Warming. As a physicist, I have looked at many of the articles and have noted that there are gaps. That Global Warming is real cannot be doubted. The sources of the warming are still too complex for us to be absolutely sure, with our relatively short data history, to be absolutely sure of the percentages which each factor contributes.
To which of Xyrus's points are you disagreeing? That those who doubt science because of their own lack of knowledge and understanding are deniers? That doubters--aka skeptics--can be convinced by evidence, but that deniers won't be? That there is a lot of scientific evidence in regards to climate science? That Google research can address most of the doubts a person might have? Or that people here in this forum can help?

At any rate, I'd be curious to hear about any of the "many" energy input/output sources climate scientists haven't taken into consideration. That is, what are the "gaps" of which you speak? Also, while I agree that we're not yet completely sure of the precise percentages each factor contributes to warming, I'm not sure how that correlates with Xyrus' comment.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
389. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:02 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 373. weathermanwannabe:

94L will probably not develop into a tropical storm but it is a good "test" wave to get an idea of potential track set-up (ridging wise) for the peak period waves and in terms of trade-wind speeds..............Currently moving at 15 knots which is about right in terms of a favorable speed for stacking up for subsequent waves.
It looks like the GFS and ECMWF are coming into agreement of the Bermuda High building back in over Florida next week as we try to return to a more typical summer time pattern here with a southeast wind flow. Now that I said that I probably jinxed us and we'll remain in the troughiness.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
388. Barban
3:01 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
What effects will this strong El Nino have on the rest of the world's weather?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
387. Climate175
3:00 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 385. Bucsboltsfan:

We are pretty much at the start of the CV season. With El Niño in place, it will be interesting to see how 94l responds. Could give us an indication of whats ahead.
Basically anywhere from late July to the middle of August is the start of Cape Verde, but Nature can start it anytime it wants, Chantal formed in early July.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
386. cRRKampen
2:59 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 350. Xyrus2000:



In Goddard's world, imaginary physics is the best physics and goes hand in hand with his imaginary math.

Will continue to use complex numbers including the imaginary unit to calculate on waves with, though :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
384. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:58 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 369. FrostyNaples:

The BAMS is over zealous with this one!


Looks like it is going to go west into the Caribbean regardless of development or not. Hopefully, it will bring some rain for the islands that need it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
383. Climate175
2:51 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
382. Climate175
2:50 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
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381. weathermanwannabe
2:46 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
RAMMB floater images; getting ready to pass below the Cape Verde islands today. We often see some of these waves fizzle once they get out past the CV Islands...................Friday or Saturday should give us a better idea of what happens to this wave. It does not have much moisture support in the ITCZ so it will really have to bump up convection over the next 5 days to stand a chance at further development IMHO:






Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
380. canyonboy
2:45 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Wednesday 07/29
90° | 66°
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
20% / 0.01 in
Thursday 07/30
89° | 66°
Chance of Rain
Chance of Rain
30% / 0.06 in
Friday 07/31
87° | 64°
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
20% / 0 in
Saturday 08/01
87° | 64°
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
10% / 0 in
Sunday 08/02
88° | 64°
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
0% / 0 in
Monday 08/03
90° | 66°
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
0% / 0 in
Tuesday 08/04
91° | 65°
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
0% / 0 in
Wednesday 08/05
89° | 63°
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
0% / 0 in
Thursday 08/06
87° | 61°
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
0% / 0 in
Friday 08/07
85° | 60°
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy

Check out our August lows in inland Orange County CA. Almost no AC so far this year, just the whole house fan which I highly recommend. It one of those things that you wonder how you lived without once you install it. Drops the attic and house temp to 68 by morning and the house stays relatively cool all day with the blinds and windows closed. Previously I used the poor man's AC, i.e., box fan in the attic access hatch. :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
379. MrNatural
2:43 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 354. Xyrus2000:



Unless someone can actually back up their doubt with something more than ideology and ignorance, then they're a denier. And that's not just with climate science, but any science. A doubter, when presented with evidence, will change their position. A denier will not, no matter how much evidence is presented.

There is A LOT of scientific evidence in regards to climate science. I'm quite sure that any doubts you may have can be easily addressed with a couple of google searches, but if there is something specific on your mind I'm sure the people here can help you find your way. :)


The Greenland ice shelf is melting faster than predicted. Would someone that doubted the conservative predictions of this ice melt be a denier? Absolutely not. Doubters and deniers are not the same. Doubters are questioners that are seekers. They believe that more information may be needed to be accurate. One should never question a doubters search for the truth. Many times, deniers are folks that make decisions without a solid basis for their decsion.
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378. ncstorm
2:43 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
06z GFS Ensembles..







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377. Climate175
2:43 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Invest 94L
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376. georgevandenberghe
2:37 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 297. Xyrus2000:



It does get hot to be sure, but the kicker is the humidity. It's basically a swamp and there isn't a whole lot of wind in the summer unless a front moves through. Average temps in the upper 80's in July, with an average relative humidity around 60-70%. Moist.




Here in DC though we do get fronts a few times in July and August and significant drying behind them. We get about 35 days above 90F in an average year. The kicker is you can grow most warm season crops through summer here in DC.

The 3F difference between DC and TLH summer average temperatures made a huge difference. TLH gets very few breaks most summers, just steady heat on and on and on. Tomatoes and corn decline in these conditions and I couldn't get them after July.. new plantings grew weakly in August but did not produce. Peppers, eggplant, watermelons, sweetpotatoes and cantaloupes did fine all summer although cantaloupes also failed in August on because of root knot nematodes.. that wasn't a temperature problem. Squash, tomatoes, corn and beans pretty much failed to thrive in August.

Lima beans were a striking contrast. They like steady warmth but have a heat limit and produced very little in TLH. They were reliable for me when I lived in suburban DC metro most years from 1972-2009, then in the extreme warm summers of 2010-2012 they failed in DC also with the same problem.. pod set failure.

2014 was a normal to cool summer and a great bean year. (The kids like beans).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
375. vis0
2:33 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Original title:: Could it be nahhhhhh or...(-TropwxFornation, )
aniGif::
image host
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
374. Grothar
2:32 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
It is hard to see the I. It is between 10N and 15N and a little to the west.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
373. weathermanwannabe
2:30 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
94L will probably not develop into a tropical storm but it is a good "test" wave to get an idea of potential track set-up (ridging wise) for the peak period waves and in terms of trade-wind speeds..............Currently moving at 15 knots which is about right in terms of a favorable speed for stacking up for subsequent waves.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
372. ncstorm
2:27 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Good Morning all..

Nice view of 94L and Africa..

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
371. K8eCane
2:26 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
Quoting 354. Xyrus2000:



Unless someone can actually back up their doubt with something more than ideology and ignorance, then they're a denier. And that's not just with climate science, but any science. A doubter, when presented with evidence, will change their position. A denier will not, no matter how much evidence is presented.

There is A LOT of scientific evidence in regards to climate science. I'm quite sure that any doubts you may have can be easily addressed with a couple of google searches, but if there is something specific on your mind I'm sure the people here can help you find your way. :)

Thanks for the info but you have said nothing that changes my stance, although Im sure you are very intelligent.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
370. nrtiwlnvragn
2:25 PM GMT on July 29, 2015
NOAAs "corrected" looks even better


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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather