Quiet in the Atlantic; Two Disturbances for Hawaii to Watch

By: Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2015

The tropics have fallen silent the past two days, with no named storms anywhere on the planet. It's not unusual to see a quiet period for tropical cyclones in July, which lies before the climatological peak months of August, September, and October in the Northern Hemisphere (a tropical cyclone is the generic term for all tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes/typhoons). The tropical cyclone-free period will likely be short lived, though, as Invest 90E, located in the Eastern Pacific about 1,050 miles southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Monday morning, may develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. This system is something residents of Hawaii should keep an eye on. Satellite loops show the disturbance has good degree of spin, but heavy thunderstorm activity is limited due to dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The system is on a trajectory that will likely take it within 300 miles of Hawaii this weekend, but the latest SHIPS model forecast shows that late this week 90E will encounter higher wind shear, cooler ocean temperatures, and drier, more stable air. These conditions should cause significant weakening as 90E approaches Hawaii. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 40% and 70%, respectively. Hawaii should also watch a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This wave was moving westwards, and should arrive in the vicinity of Hawaii by Tuesday next week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 40%, respectively.


Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two in the Bay of Bengal as seen on Monday afternoon, July 27, 2015, from the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gave top winds of 30 mph to the system, which was nearly stationary. Image credit: NASA.

In the Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 2, which is bringing heavy rains to portions of India and Bangladesh along the coast of the Bay of Bengal. Tropical depressions embedded within India's monsoon rarely grow into strong tropical storms, but can be prodigious rain makers. India's monsoon has been 12% below normal in rainfall as of July 22, so the country could use more rainfall--though perhaps not in the concentrated manner a monsoon tropical depression typically delivers, causing dangerous flooding rains. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is not classifying this system as a tropical depression yet.

In the Western Pacific, all looks to be quiet until at least this Saturday, when both the European and GFS models predict a new tropical depression could form about 500 miles east of the Philippines.


Figure 2. Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis for 8 am EDT Monday, July 27, 2015, from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows plenty of dry air dominating the tropical Atlantic. Two tropical waves over the Eastern Atlantic were apparent, with no signs of development.

African tropical wave-watching season has begun
In the Atlantic, it's the time of year when we need to start watching the regular procession of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. About 85% of all major hurricanes in the Atlantic get their start as an African tropical wave, so these potential trouble-makers are important to track and monitor. We do have several solid tropical waves with decent spin and moisture that have pushed off the coast of Africa over the past few days, but these tropical waves face a rugged path ahead of them if they want to develop into tropical depressions. Wind shear off the coast of Africa is not prohibitive--a moderate 10 - 20 knots--but a massive area of dry, dusty air--a Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) outbreak common for this time of year--is dominating most of the tropical Atlantic, from the coast of Africa into the Central Caribbean. This dry air will make it difficult for any tropical waves to spin up into tropical depressions over the Eastern Atlantic. If something does manage to form, it will likely be short-lived, if it attempts to move very far west. High wind shear of 20 - 40 knots dominates the Caribbean, and is expected to stay strong for at least the next five days. The ensemble runs of the GFS and European models--done by running the models at lower resolution and varying the initial atmospheric conditions slightly to generate an "ensemble" of twenty potential weather situations (fifty for the European model)--do have a few of their 20 - 50 runs that develop a tropical depression from one of these African tropical waves later this week. However, none of these solutions have the storm that develops making it as far west as the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the operational high-resolution versions of our three top models for predicting genesis of tropical cyclones--the GFS, European, and UKMET models--do not show anything developing this week. NHC did not highlight any suspected areas of development over the next five days in their 8 am Monday Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook.


Figure 3. Latest radar image out of Tampa, Florida.

Heavy rains in Florida from Gulf of Mexico low
A low pressure system has formed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Florida, and will drift toward the Florida coast today, bringing 1 - 3" of rain with a few high spots of 3 - 5" over Central Florida over the next few days. The Tampa radar is estimating that this low has already brought 6+ inches of rain to the coast near Tampa, Fort Myers, and Naples. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is keeping this system from developing. While a number of members of the GFS and European ensemble model forecast do show this system developing, none of the operational versions of our reliable models for predicting genesis of tropical cyclones show development over the next five days. We should keep an eye on this system over the next few days, but I am not expecting it to develop.

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory will be providing updates by about 4 pm EDT on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday this week.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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417. LongIslandBeaches
4:24 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Quoting 405. Patrap:

Storm totals




I see 10+" readings. In ~4 days... pretty impressive. Not to mention some sexy 16+" spots in the GOM. Send some my way, please? UNL says we're D1 (Moderate Drought) with no rain forecast for the next 5 or so days.
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416. LongIslandBeaches
4:14 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Quoting 356. nrtiwlnvragn:

With some luck East Central Florida may make up it's yearly rainfall deficit when the trough crosses over to the Atlantic.










Would you (or anyone else) clue me in as to where I might find these graphical illustrations of temperature and rainfall versus average?

TIA
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415. indianrivguy
4:08 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Quoting 392. Patrap:

Nary a rain drop over Fla atm.

Doom, small "d" is kinda postponed.


Orlando will still have epic flooding...
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414. HurriHistory
3:17 PM GMT on July 28, 2015

Pat, this system caused very heavy rains and wind gusts to 30-MPH along the south east coast as well.
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413. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:16 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
412. rmbjoe1954
3:12 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
I will pay attention to those African waves on or after August 7th-
There is no reason only that that is when SAL should decline as a factor against development of these storms. But when they track close to the Carib , GOM, or SE CONUS, that's when we should start hoping nothing bad develops and impacts property and lives.
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411. HurriHistory
3:12 PM GMT on July 28, 2015

Rex, this storm was a major cat.-4 WInds of 60-MPH were felt as far south as the Miami area.
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410. weathermanwannabe
3:06 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Whatever is out there (the weak low on the Gulf side) and no low off the SE coast yet per the surface charts, it ain't pretty and one sheared mess with Florida "in the middle" between the two ends of the trof.
Not sure that the Gulf area is going to "cross-over" to the Atlantic side; this is one big area having trouble on both sides of the peninsula with any organization because of the high shear levels.





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409. ricderr
3:04 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
A massive El Nino is STILL growing: Ten year high will cause prices of everything from chocolate to coffee to rocket but WON'T bring relief to California, forecasters say
Forecast says El Nino conditions are likely to last another nine months
US set to experience wetter-than-normal conditions along Gulf Coast
Peru declared a pre-emptive state of emergency ahead of floods
By MARK PRIGG FOR DAILYMAIL.COM
PUBLISHED: 17:17 EST, 27 July 2015 | UPDATED: 18:07 EST, 27 July 2015

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In California, they're counting on it to end an historic drought; in Peru, they've already declared a pre-emptive emergency to prepare for devastating flooding.
Experts say El Nino is set to be the largest in well over a decade - and will increase the price of coffee, chocolate and sugar.
The latest forecasts reveals the effect is still growing, and could survive the winter.
Scroll down for video

+2
The US National Oceanic and Atmosopheric Administration has detected warmer than average water surface temperatures around the equator of the Pacific Ocean (shown above) which indicates the arrival of El Niño
WHAT IS EL NIÑO
El Niño is caused by a shift in the distribution of warm water in the Pacific Ocean around the equator.
Usually the wind blows strongly from east to west, due to the rotation of the Earth, causing water to pile up in the western part of the Pacific.
This pulls up colder water from the deep ocean in the eastern Pacific.
However, in an El Niño, the winds pushing the water get weaker and cause the warmer water to shift back towards the east.
This causes the eastern Pacific to get warmer.
But as the ocean temperature is linked to the wind currents, this causes the winds to grow weaker still and so the ocean grows warmer, meaning the El Niño grows.
This change in air and ocean currents around the equator can have a major impact on the weather patterns around the globe by creating pressure anomalies in the atmosphere.
However, they say a competing weather pattern known as 'the blob' could stop it bringing desperately needed relief to California.
That pool of incredibly warm ocean water was a major player in the weather over western North America this past winter.
A strong ridge of high pressure was parked over the region, keeping things warm and dry from California to Alaska.
The wintertime pattern has been so domineering that West Coast meteorologists dubbed it the 'ridiculously resilient ridge' and believe it could cancel out the effects of el Nino.
But the Capital Weather Gang's Matt Rogers told the Washington Post the North Pacific warm pool is a powerhouse right now and could prove hard to overcome, especially if El Niño turns out to be weaker than predicted.
'The positive SST feedback from that warm pool would likely get outweighed by tropical forcing from an El Niño if we see a strong or super El Niño hold through the winter just based on past performance,' Rogers said.
Looking back through previous events, he has found that global weather patterns — in particular, the North Atlantic Oscillation and Indian Ocean temperatures — are not quite matching up with previous strong events like the ones in 1997-1998, which throws a lot more uncertainty into the forecasts that are calling for a very strong El Niño.
Rogers says if El Niño ends up being weaker than predicted, 'then the warm pool could influence bigger Alaska ridges like the last two winters,' which would mean another painfully dry rainy season for California.


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408. K8eCane
3:03 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Quoting 406. centex:

Shear looks pretty bad 40-50. The eastern gulf a little better but not favorable at this time. As the Gulf system drifts west it may find more favorable conditions in a few days. Give them credit for being persistent.


Shear forecast to decrease here
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407. Patrap
3:02 PM GMT on July 28, 2015



SYNOPSIS 2015072800

P11L

29N, 82W (Using 62W to help center a quasi-stationary pouch)
700 hPa

ECMWF: Change from yesterday (come into agreement with GFS): Although ECMWF still tracks toward the NE, P11L now moves slowly, staying closer to the US coast rather than racing off toward the ENE. Quickly weakens when caught by a midlatitude trough on Day 5. ECMWF continues to develop another circulation over Florida in a few days, but it is weak.

GFS: The 96-hour position is now a little farther off the coast than in ECMWF. Also weakens when the trough arrives. GFS also depicts another weak circulation, although it is just west of Florida by 120 hours.
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406. centex
3:00 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Quoting 404. hurricanes2018:



we need to watch this low off the southeast coast line!!
Shear looks pretty bad 40-50. The eastern gulf a little better but not favorable at this time. As the Gulf system drifts west it may find more favorable conditions in a few days. Give them credit for being persistent.
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405. Patrap
3:00 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Storm totals

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404. hurricanes2018
2:54 PM GMT on July 28, 2015


we need to watch this low off the southeast coast line!!
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403. K8eCane
2:54 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Quoting 398. Patrap:

With the High moving out to the Nw, we have to watch the Low for a west to Nw drift.






Everybody has been watching every move it makes for days. Nothing new here
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402. Patrap
2:54 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
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401. Patrap
2:53 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
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400. rmbjoe1954
2:51 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Thanks for the blob alert, Gro.

There is only a slim chance for rain here at my location - just 20%- for the day.
But since you've called the blob alert I am sure we will be drowning in rain through the remainder of the week and this weekend as the GOM low crosses the peninsula.
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399. hurricanes2018
2:50 PM GMT on July 28, 2015



we have a new low off the southeast coast right now!!!
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398. Patrap
2:49 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
With the High moving out to the Nw, we have to watch the Low for a west to Nw drift.



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397. tmgwaves
2:48 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Patrap- it's been raining almost nonstop at my house in FL since 4AM. We've gotten 12" since Friday and still falling.
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396. Patrap
2:48 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
I usually hold my breath thru Aug and Sept, thus the blue skin tint.
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395. Sfloridacat5
2:46 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
I'm watching the activity in the GOM to see if it drops a little further south an affects my area later today. I've got a pretty nice mushroom farm growing in the back yard. lol
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394. hydrus
2:45 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Quoting 392. Patrap:

Nary a rain drop over Fla atm.

Doom, small "d" is kinda postponed.
July is not a big month for Fl in the TC department anyway...August may have something.
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393. RickWPB
2:44 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Scott,

I had a Live Oak that got some minor damage from H. Wilma. It had an opening in the 'V of the trunk' that let some water in. I never noticed this. 9 years later it started to rot inside and I saw water coming out near the bottom of the trunk during heavy rains. I had to have one of my favorite tree removed. Too bad as it was providing some good shade on the front of my house. When they cut it down they said it had rotted 30% inside.

After the rains stop and the tree dries up, I suggest having an arborist look at patching the opening if you want to save the tree.

Quoting 357. StormTrackerScott:



That tree that broke off is a Water Oak so when it rains too much they just fall over. Shook the house around 3 AM this morning. My neighbor had one fall over last month after a day we had over 2.50" of rain. Over 20" since June 1st at my location.
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392. Patrap
2:42 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Nary a rain drop over Fla atm.

Doom, small "d" is kinda postponed.
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391. hydrus
2:42 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Quoting 388. Sfloridacat5:



Could be. I've got 86 degrees with the sun shining after 4 straight days of cloudy weather with occasional heavy showers.
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390. LargoFl
2:41 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Quoting 383. Grothar:

OK, OK, it's a blob, with a semi-blob off the coast of GA.


oh oh..we got the official blob Alert now!!
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389. hydrus
2:40 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
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388. Sfloridacat5
2:39 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Quoting 386. hydrus:

May destabilize things and get some strong storms.


Could be. I've got 86 degrees with the sun shining after 4 straight days of cloudy weather with occasional heavy showers. Humidity is still ridiculous. I can only stay outside for about 2 minutes because it's so hot.
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387. Patrap
2:39 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
O I hope not'

But as to our just coming around to N and Nest winds here, that denotes the system has trended a lil stronger as the Southerly flow we had,is now N to Neast.

One to watch with one eye for now.

: )
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386. hydrus
2:38 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Quoting 336. Sfloridacat5:

First morning in a while that the day has started with sunshine here in Fort Myers .
May destabilize things and get some strong storms.
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385. Grothar
2:31 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Pat, it looks like you may get a little action later this week.

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384. ColdInFL
2:30 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Link
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383. Grothar
2:29 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
OK, OK, it's a blob, with a semi-blob off the coast of GA.

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382. Patrap
2:28 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015



GULF OF MEXICO...

NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES THE GULF BASIN THIS
MORNING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION. WHILE PROVIDING A GENERALLY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...A SURFACE WEAKNESS IN THE FORM OF A 1013 MB
LOW CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N83W AND SURFACE TROUGHING
EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N86W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 83W-87W WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY NOTED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF CONTINUING TO PROVIDE MARGINAL LIFTING DYNAMICS FOR THE
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N84W WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD.
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381. Patrap
2:17 PM GMT on July 28, 2015


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380. K8eCane
2:11 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Quoting 376. indianrivguy:



I dunno... pines have a deep tap root.. sometimes as deep as is tall... only a SERIOUS wind would "snap" them off at the tap root.. they don't just lay over like an Australian pine that has no tap root... even water oaks have a minimal tap root.. mostly in mature trees they are lateral systems that can be affected by wet soil...


Thats true...but pine ( with its deep root) is what will be unexpected
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379. islander101010
2:09 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
gfs best i can tell no longer takes ne gulf clouds out to sea. also to note i it has a large tropical wave leaving w. africa 150hrs
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378. hurricanes2018
2:09 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
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377. hurricanes2018
2:04 PM GMT on July 28, 2015


do we have a low off the southeast coast to
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376. indianrivguy
1:59 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Quoting 355. K8eCane:




Ive been telling you guys for days that there is going to be a tree problem, esp pine


I dunno... pines have a deep tap root.. sometimes as deep as is tall... only a SERIOUS wind would "snap" them off at the tap root.. they don't just lay over like an Australian pine that has no tap root... even water oaks have a minimal tap root.. mostly in mature trees they are lateral systems that can be affected by wet soil...
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375. islander101010
1:58 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
the group of clouds n.e gulf dont seem to be in a hurry to go anywhere.
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374. AdamReith
1:57 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Quoting 362. SouthTampa:

It will make for some nice firewood for the winter. A good mix of hardwoods and pine makes for a nice hot crackling fire.
Won't that mix also make for a coked-up chimney? My chimney sweep people told me never to burn pine--too much resin.
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373. hydrus
1:54 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
GFS long range has a system forming and moving west.

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372. LargoFl
1:47 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Quoting 371. sporteguy03:


In Central Florida west of Orlando we are getting showers with little lightning if at all which is unusual. Ever since this front stalled the weather has not been the norm.
yes what we are getting isn't normal,especially here on the gulf coast whew.
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371. sporteguy03
1:38 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Quoting 358. LargoFl:

Im sorry I don't agree,this isn't our usual rainy season kind of storms,those usually come in the afternoon and really in no way approach the kind of rainfall amounts we're getting here around tampa bay,this is an unusual event without some tropical system sitting over us..flooding all over the place...my guess is we will be breaking rainfall records if this keeps up.

In Central Florida west of Orlando we are getting showers with little lightning if at all which is unusual. Ever since this front stalled the weather has not been the norm.
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370. Naga5000
1:30 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Quoting 350. StormTrackerScott:

The 12.48" so far for July has caused one of my Oak Trees to break off and water is coming out of the tree no lie!




Laurel or Live Oak? The Laurels that were planted in the 50's and 60's around Central Florida are all starting to reach their maximum life span. I had to get a 30 footer removed recently.
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369. ncstorm
1:26 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
00z UKMET





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368. ncstorm
1:23 PM GMT on July 28, 2015




Later..work calls..
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367. ncstorm
1:20 PM GMT on July 28, 2015
Quoting 364. BahaHurican:

Morning nc .... I guess they are looking at that trough and thinking something will spin up from it?


I didnt read their analysis of how they think it will happen as they are now a paid website and I limit myself to one paid weather subscription a year but I would agree with you as well..
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About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather