Record Ocean Temperatures Threaten Hawaii's Coral Reefs

By: Jeff Masters , 7:34 PM GMT on July 24, 2015

Record warm sea surface temperatures in Hawaii's waters threaten to bring a second consecutive year of record coral bleaching to their precious coral reefs this summer. According to NOAA, ocean temperatures in the waters near and to the south of the Hawaiian Islands were 1 - 2°C (1.8 - 3.6°F) above average in June, which was the warmest these waters have been since record keeping began over a century ago. With the waters surrounding Hawaii expected to warm to their highest values of the summer by September, and likely remain 1 - 2°C above average, NOAA's Coral Reef Watch has placed the islands under a Coral Bleach Watch, and their experimental coral bleaching forecast gives a 50 - 90% chance that Hawaii will experience "Level 2" thermal stress this summer--the highest category of danger, likely to result in widespread coral bleaching and mortality. The record warm ocean temperatures are due to a strong El Niño event that is pushing large amounts of record-warm water into the Central Pacific, in combination with the steady rise in ocean temperatures due to global warming. Mass coral die-offs commonly occur during strong El Niño events; the United Nations Environmental Program found that 16% of the worlds coral reefs were effectively lost during a nine-month coral bleaching episode associated with the 1997 - 1998 record-strength El Niño event. With this year's El Niño event likely to be almost as strong as the 1997 - 1998 one, coral reefs are going to take a beating again.


Figure 1. NOAA's experimental coral bleaching forecast gives a 50 - 90% chance that Hawaii will experience Satellite Bleaching Alert Level 2 thermal stress this summer--the highest category of danger, likely to result in widespread coral bleaching and mortality. El Niño conditions have produced an extremely warm band of water from the central equatorial Pacific to the South American coast, and Level 2 thermal stress has already been reached in the Gilbert, Phoenix, and Northern Line Islands in Kiribati, as well as in Micronesia, the Howland and Baker Islands, and to the east in the Galápagos.


Figure 2. Unusually warm waters are also in place along the northern coast of Cuba and in the Bahamas, and NOAA's experimental coral bleaching forecast gives about a 70% chance coral reefs in these waters will experience Satellite Bleaching Alert Level 2 thermal stress this summer--the highest category of danger, likely to result in widespread coral bleaching and mortality.

Second consecutive year of severe coral bleaching in Hawaii
Hawaii's reefs are already reeling from their worst coral bleaching event in recorded history in 2014, when record warm ocean temperatures caused 50 - 70% of the corals sampled in Northeast Oahu's Kāneʻohe Bay to bleach. When the sea surface temperature is 1°C warmer than the highest monthly mean temperature corals usually experience, coral polyps will expel the symbiotic algae that live in their tissues, exposing the white skeleton underneath, resulting in a white "bleached" appearance. Death can result if the stress is high and long-lived. In Hawaii's waters, corals cannot tolerate water temperatures above 83°F (28.3°C) for multi-week periods without suffering bleaching. Corals typically recover from mild bleaching, gradually recovering their color by repopulating their algae. However, if the bleaching is severe or prolonged, individual polyps or whole colonies will die. With Hawaii likely to undergo a second consecutive year of record warm waters and coral bleaching in 2015, widespread mortality in many of Hawaii's coral reefs is possible, particularly around the Big Island.


Figure 3. During June 2015, the ocean areas near and to the south of Hawaii were at their warmest levels since record keeping began in 1880. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) .

Could a hurricane help?
When hurricanes and tropical storms churn the waters, they upwell large amounts of cooler waters from the depths that can cool the surface waters, potentially reducing the thermal stress on coral reefs. The heavy rains from the storm can also potentially cause cooling. This occurred in the Virgin Islands in 2010, when Hurricane Earl and Hurricane Otto helped relieve a potentially dangerous coral bleaching episode (Figure 4.) So, should Hawaii hope for a hurricane this September to help save its coral reefs? Well, be careful what you wish for. Hurricanes cause damage to reefs. Following Tropical Storm Iselle, which hit the Big Island of Hawaii on August 7, 2014, with 60 mph winds, researchers at the University of Hawaii, Hilo documented that one coral reef on the Big Island (the Wai`ōpae tide pools) suffered physical damage from pounding waves that broke up to 18% of the coral colonies of one species of coral with long slender branches--cauliflower coral. Other corals suffered lesser damage, 0 - 10% breakage. In addition, these corals were subjected to sewage contamination due to damage of cesspools and septic tanks.


Figure 4. Mean daily temperatures (on left Y-axis) with standard error collected at reef-depth (26'-58') monitoring sites on St. John US Virgin Islands, and total daily rainfall (on right Y-axis) from August through October 2010 from Newfound, Haulover, Tektite, Yawzi and Mennebeck Reefs in the Virgin Islands. Image credit: Rafe Boulon, Resource Management Chief, Virgin Islands National Park.

Long term outlook for world's coral reefs: bleak
The large amount of carbon dioxide humans have put into the air in recent decades has done more than just raise Earth's global temperature--it has also increased the acidity of the oceans, since carbon dioxide dissolves in sea water to form carbonic acid. The oceans are acidifying faster than at any time in the past 300 million years. Corals have trouble growing in acidic sea water, and the combined effects of increasing ocean temperatures, increasing acidity, pollution, and overfishing have reduced coral reefs globally by 19 percent between 1950 - 2008. Another 35 percent could disappear in the next 40 years, even without the impact of climate change, according to a report released in October 2010 by the World Meteorological Organization and the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Coral expert J.E.N. Veron, former chief scientist of the Australian Institute of Marine Science, had this to say in an excellent interview he did with Yale Environment 360 in 2010: "the science is clear: Unless we change the way we live, the Earth's coral reefs will be utterly destroyed within our children's lifetimes...Reefs are the ocean's canaries and we must hear their call. This call is not just for themselves, for the other great ecosystems of the ocean stand behind reefs like a row of dominoes. If coral reefs fail, the rest will follow in rapid succession, and the Sixth Mass Extinction will be upon us--and will be of our making."


Figure 5. An example of coral bleaching that occurred during the record-strength 1997-1998 El Niño event. Image credit: Craig Quirolo, Reef Relief/Marine Photobank, in Climate, Carbon and Coral Reefs

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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1099. Grothar
4:27 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
This is a good close-up loop. It is investy but not blobby looking yet.

Link
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1098. Grothar
4:22 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Very little. Just enough for the geckos. Not a drop yesterday or today.



Quoting 1073. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Gro-
Have you been getting rain down there?






Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1097. DVG
3:31 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
I know Alex formed in the Atlantic in 2004, but before doing so, it was a severe thunderstorm over Tampa. I had a six o'clock flight out, and didn't leave until after 11pm. Sitting in the concourse I saw one of the most spectacular lightning shows I've ever seen. At the gate I was offered a view of the radar from the computer. After it reached TS status, it provided some pretty impressive clouds over NE Fla. I have pictures. ( I also have a picture of Katrina's first outer band of clouds from a plane over the VAB in Titusville the day before it struck south Fla )
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1096. Sfloridacat5
3:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
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1095. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1094. SouthTampa
3:26 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1086. Patrap:

It is a cute lil baby low atm.


And nothing more. Looking east from the 4th floor of All Children's Hospital over the bay: clouds are moving fairly rapidly SW-NE, there is very little wind and light rain. Gray day here...
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1093. weathermanwannabe
3:25 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Regardless of development issues (with high shear and proximity to land being the main impendiment IMHO), it's a very good blob watch for us today:


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1092. rmbjoe1954
3:20 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1076. StormTrackerScott:



Any rain by you lately? Melbourne is near 10" for July already and most of this has come in the last 10 days.




Hi Scott-

We seem to be back to normal although stats show St.Lucie is 5-6 inches below where it should be.
It's great to be near normal.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1091. Patrap
3:20 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Long term outlook for world's coral reefs: bleak

The large amount of carbon dioxide humans have put into the air in recent decades has done more than just raise Earth's global temperature--it has also increased the acidity of the oceans, since carbon dioxide dissolves in sea water to form carbonic acid. The oceans are acidifying faster than at any time in the past 300 million years. Corals have trouble growing in acidic sea water, and the combined effects of increasing ocean temperatures, increasing acidity, pollution, and overfishing have reduced coral reefs globally by 19 percent between 1950 - 2008. Another 35 percent could disappear in the next 40 years, even without the impact of climate change, according to a report released in October 2010 by the World Meteorological Organization and the Convention on Biological Diversity.

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1090. Patrap
3:19 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
920 am EDT Monday Jul 27 2015

Discussion... clouds cover much of the area and numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms are moving onshore in the Tampa Bay area.
Other showers are moving onshore around Fort Myers. Areas from Tampa
Bay south continue in a Flood Watch today along the coastal counties
from Pasco County south to Lee County. 2 to 4 inches of rain is
possible in the watch area with locally higher amounts. This morings
sounding shows moderate cape and precipitable water at 2.25 with southwest winds up
to 700 mb and east to northeast above. Low pressure just offshore
over the Gulf west of the Nature Coast is creating an easterly flow
over areas north of Tampa Bay keeping showers offshore for now. But
as the low gradually migrates northeast the showers will develop
northward bringing more rain to the Nature Coast. Rain amounts will
be greater where showers are more persistent. Shower activity will
clear over the land but persist over the Gulf coastal waters
tonight. Increasing west to southwest winds over the coastal waters
will generate seas that will create rip currents at area beaches
today.

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1089. StormTrackerScott
3:16 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1083. FLWeatherFreak91:

I wouldn't say it's "well" organized since it's still very ovular.


It's a closed circulation. Very well organized at low levels. Upper levels a different story.
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1088. K8eCane
3:16 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1081. weathermanwannabe:


I can only rely on the CIMMS charts for shear issues and the most recent 24 hour tendancy in the Eastern Gulf (already posted below) is for shear to increase (as opposed to decreasing).




Thats in the eastern Gulf. How about off southeasst coast where this may go
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1087. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:15 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1080. StormTrackerScott:

This is a well organized system atleast at low levels. If shear wasn't in the 20 knt range then we might have a rapidly developing system.


no rapid dev scott just some rain maybe some gusty breezes at times in daytime heat affect after passage over fla then maybe a different monster will come
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1086. Patrap
3:15 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
It is a cute lil baby low atm.

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1085. NativeSun
3:15 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1054. annabatic:


You're going to have to be more specific. I found articles about the lion fish invading the reefs around the Bahamas, the detrimental effect on the traditional species and fisheries, and I imagine people there are upset about it. And, as mentioned by Dr. Masters and known to any marine biologist, coral reefs provide an important habitat for diverse marine species.

Your comment makes you sound, dare I say it, "crabby".
Hi annabactic, the lion fish is an invasive species to the Bahamas and South Florida, but is not overtaking the reefs and killing all the native juvenile fish. South Florida has the same reef fish as found in the Bahamas and yes the people in the Bahamas need to learn to eat the Lionfish as they are very tasty. As far as the reefs being effected by the higher ocean temps caused by this strong Nino, this is not a permanent problem and they will recover in time. This is one of the problems caused by strong Nino's along with the death of millions of fish in other parts of the world.
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1084. HurricaneAndre
3:14 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1080. StormTrackerScott:

This is a well organized system atleast at low levels. If shear wasn't in the 20 knt range then we might have a rapidly developing system.


I really believe that this is a 30mph invest at this time.
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1083. FLWeatherFreak91
3:14 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1080. StormTrackerScott:

This is a well organized system atleast at low levels. If shear wasn't in the 20 knt range then we might have a rapidly developing system.


I wouldn't say it's "well" organized since it's still very ovular.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1082. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:13 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1069. StormTrackerScott:

How this isn't an invest is beyond me.


its just getting going by give em a little time see how it performs next 6 hrs or so
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1081. weathermanwannabe
3:12 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1065. K8eCane:



You wont happen to know if that shear is forecast to weaken any time soon, would you?

I can only rely on the CIMMS charts for shear issues and the most recent 24 hour tendancy in the Eastern Gulf (already posted below) is for shear to increase (as opposed to decreasing).
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1080. StormTrackerScott
3:11 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
This is a well organized system atleast at low levels. If shear wasn't in the 20 knt range then we might have a rapidly developing system.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1079. Patrap
3:10 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
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1078. Sfloridacat5
3:07 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1072. FLWeatherFreak91:

I'm in between Holiday and Odessa and picked up just over 9"


Yeah, lots of heavy rain amounts out there. Some of the heaviest rainfall in my area has fallen where there aren't any official reporting stations. Reports of 10"-15" is pretty common out towards to beach extending down into nothern Collier County around here.

But our official reporting station down town (Page Field) has "only" picked up around 3" since Friday. But just little South of the city (South West Regional Airport and areas just south of there), 8-15" has been reported.
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1077. HurricaneAndre
3:06 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Who thinks we have 94L. I think so. It sure looks good right now.
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1076. StormTrackerScott
3:04 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1073. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Gro-
Have you been getting rain down there?




Any rain by you lately? Melbourne is near 10" for July already and most of this has come in the last 10 days.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1075. nrtiwlnvragn
3:03 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
10 years since Hurricane Katrina:
Progress in hurricane modeling, prediction, decision support, and coastal resilience


Excerpt:

On Tuesday, July 28, NOAA Administrator Dr. Kathryn Sullivan will hold a special briefing at the U.S. Department of Commerce Library in Washington, D.C., to mark a decade of science progress since the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, which remains the most active on record.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1074. StormTrackerScott
3:03 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1071. Patrap:

This is a surface chart.







This low is really spinning now. As this comes ashore tomorrow there is going to be some pretty remarkable rainfall amounts from Tampa to Orlando as that band off Tampa reforms over land tomorrow.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1073. rmbjoe1954
3:03 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1064. Grothar:

It looks unlikely anything very strong could develop in the Gulf. I would expect very heavy rain as the system crosses to the NE and then development is more likely. These systems are not unusual and very common during this time of year. Before we could track these lows, we just thought we were getting heavy rainstorms. Before, after getting one of these, all we said was, "Wow, where did that come from?"




Hi Gro-
Have you been getting rain down there?

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1072. FLWeatherFreak91
2:59 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1047. Sfloridacat5:

Some of the heavier rainfall totals

Rainfall reports past 72 hours ...

Hillsborough County...
4 se Odessa 7.46 in 0823 am 07/27 28.15n/82.55w
greater Northdale 0.4 ENE 7.06 in 0700 am 07/27 28.11n/82.51w

Lee County...
southwest Florida internatio 8.30 in 0753 am 07/27 26.54n/81.75w
Bonita Springs 3.1 NW 8.11 in 0700 am 07/27

Manatee County...
1 WNW Bradenton 8.95 in 0830 am 07/27 27.49n/82.59w

Pasco County...
2 NE Holiday 11.28 in 0819 am 07/27 28.21n/82.72w
Port Richey 7.84 in 0804 am 07/27 28.27n/82.73w
pithlachascotee 7.56 in 0715 am 07/27

Pinellas County...
Tarpon Springs 5.6 E 8.99 in 0700 am 07/27 28.14n/82.66w
S-551 8.89 in 0745 am 07/27 28.05n/82.71w
Tarpon Springs 8.77 in 0800 am 07/27 28.14n/82.66w
2 E Palm Harbor 8.18 in 0824 am 07/27 28.09n/82.72w
2 SSE Tarpon Springs 8.00 in 0804 am 07/27

Sarasota County...
1 N Laurel 8.99 in 0818 am 07/27



I'm in between Holiday and Odessa and picked up just over 9"
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1071. Patrap
2:58 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
This is a surface chart.




Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1070. DCSwithunderscores
2:44 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
EUROPE'S HIGHEST RAILWAY STATION - NEW RECORD WARMEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time warmest temperature at the site of Europe's highest railway station, Jungfraujoch, Swizterland, of 13.6 C / 56.5 F was set on July 21, 2015. The elevation of Jungfraujoch railway station is 3454 meters / 11332 feet.
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1069. StormTrackerScott
2:36 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
How this isn't an invest is beyond me.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1068. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:35 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1057. weathermanwannabe:

It boils down to shear on this one; if shear dropped, I could see something spin up relatively quickly but NHC is cognizant of the shear issues. However, it's still tying; notice the new swirl just to the SW of Cedar Key (I was down there this past weekend). Multiple swirls all morning, in various locations, tying to find a groove:


cyclonic signature evident rainfall threat high
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1067. flbeachgirl
2:33 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
SW winds at 25mph and steady rain on Longboat Key .
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1066. StormTrackerScott
2:27 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1057. weathermanwannabe:

It boils down to shear on this one; if shear dropped, I could see something spin up relatively quickly but NHC is cognizant of the shear issues. However, it's still tying; notice the new swirl just to the SW of Cedar Key (I was down there this past weekend). Multiple swirls all morning, in various locations, tying to find a groove:




Winds are getting more breezy out of the South here NW of Orlando.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1065. K8eCane
2:25 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1057. weathermanwannabe:

It boils down to shear on this one; if shear dropped, I could see something spin up relatively quickly but NHC is cognizant of the shear issues. However, it's still tying; notice the swirl just to the SE of Cedar Key (I was down there this past weekend):




You wont happen to know if that shear is forecast to weaken any time soon, would you?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1064. Grothar
2:24 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
It looks unlikely anything very strong could develop in the Gulf. I would expect very heavy rain as the system crosses to the NE and then development is more likely. These systems are not unusual and very common during this time of year. Before we could track these lows, we just thought we were getting heavy rainstorms. Before, after getting one of these, all we said was, "Wow, where did that come from?"

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1063. weathermanwannabe
2:24 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1061. 19N81W:

Ya I can see it in the sky here in Cayman.....we were supposed to get some rain today/tonight sadly its being absorbed by the dust...you can see the layer...it looks like a high overcast but its dust...
I think the SAL has the ability long term to turn the caribbean into an ever increasing arid climate.
If it was in the Pacific they wouldnt be as active regardless of El Nino....the sal has a much higher impact than we think.




I feel really bad for you folks rain-wise; it has been very dry in the Caribbean for the past two months. You folks will actually need a tropical storm or two to bring down some the rain deficits and cool you down (or at least a several healthy tropical waves).
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1062. LargoFl
2:23 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
MON JUL 27 2015

...FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PASCO
SOUTHWARD TO LEE COUNTY...

.SATURATED SOILS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF FLOODING FOR
COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PASCO SOUTHWARD TO LEE.

FLZ050-149-151-155-160-162-165-249-251-255-260-26 2-265-272000-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-150728T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PINELLAS-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND PASCO-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND SARASOTA-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. PETERSBURG...CLEARWATER...LARGO...
PORT RICHEY...HUDSON...TAMPA...APOLLO BEACH...WESTCHASE...
BRADENTON...ANNA MARIA ISLAND...VENICE...SARASOTA...ENGLEWOOD...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...CAPTIVA...SANIBEL...
DADE CITY...ZEPHYRHILLS...BRANDON...PLANT CITY...
SUN CITY CENTER...PARRISH...LAKEWOOD RANCH...MYAKKA CITY...
NORTH PORT...BABCOCK RANCH...FORT MYERS...LEHIGH ACRES
356 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF FL AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN FL...COASTAL CHARLOTTE...COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH...COASTAL LEE...COASTAL MANATEE...COASTAL PASCO...
COASTAL SARASOTA...INLAND CHARLOTTE...INLAND HILLSBOROUGH...
INLAND LEE...INLAND MANATEE...INLAND PASCO AND INLAND
SARASOTA. IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...PINELLAS.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* IF POSSIBLE...CLEAR DRAINAGE SYSTEMS OF ANY DEBRIS WHICH MAY
BECOME CLOGGED IN FLOODING RAINS.

SATURATED SOILS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF FLOODING FOR
COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PASCO SOUTHWARD TO LEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

$$
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1061. 19N81W
2:22 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Ya I can see it in the sky here in Cayman.....we were supposed to get some rain today/tonight sadly its being absorbed by the dust...you can see the layer...it looks like a high overcast but its dust...
I think the SAL has the ability long term to turn the caribbean into an ever increasing arid climate.
If it was in the Pacific they wouldnt be as active regardless of El Nino....the sal has a much higher impact than we think.

Quoting 1005. weathermanwannabe:

And finally: shear all over the Atlantic MDR and a huge SAL outbreak 



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1060. hydrus
2:21 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1024. NativeSun:

I was, and we had a lot of damage, but I still want to see another Andrew. Helps remove a lot of the trash.
That comment was not directed at you, but since you took time to type a response, I would just as soon find an alternative to removing whatever trash it is your referring by some other means. Destroying everything makes more trash, an even encourages trash to take hold.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1059. sporteguy03
2:21 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1052. weathermanwannabe:



Here is part of the link that is a good summary of current conditions we are discussing:

In theory, if clusters of showers and thundershowers can develop in the same place as the low-pressure center and persist, it could eventually develop into at least a tropical depression.

However, in reality, winds in the upper atmosphere are expected to remain hostile for development. The National Hurricane Center had been highlighting an area from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to off the Southeast coast for possible subtropical or tropical development during the next five days. They dropped that highlight early Sunday morning and have not reintroduced it.


What I posted is explaining why the satellite appearance appears better. Chances are still low for development but not impossible.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1058. LargoFl
2:21 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1057. weathermanwannabe
2:19 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
It boils down to shear on this one; if shear dropped, I could see something spin up relatively quickly but NHC is cognizant of the shear issues. However, it's still tying; notice the new swirl just to the SW of Cedar Key (I was down there this past weekend). Multiple swirls all morning, in various locations, tying to find a groove:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1056. HurricaneAndre
2:17 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1053. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

XXL/INV/XX


This could be an invest at this time. Maybe.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1055. LargoFl
2:16 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1054. annabatic
2:16 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1027. NativeSun:

Wrong.

You're going to have to be more specific. I found articles about the lion fish invading the reefs around the Bahamas, the detrimental effect on the traditional species and fisheries, and I imagine people there are upset about it. And, as mentioned by Dr. Masters and known to any marine biologist, coral reefs provide an important habitat for diverse marine species.

Your comment makes you sound, dare I say it, "crabby".
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1053. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:11 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
XXL/INV/XX

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1052. weathermanwannabe
2:09 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Quoting 1050. sporteguy03:



As expected, a weak area of low pressure developed at sea level along that stationary front over the weekend, and weak low pressure also formed in the upper levels of the atmosphere over that same area. Both have been drifting over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, west of the Florida peninsula, since they developed. This setup is helping to boost the formation of showers and thunderstorms, and it's reducing (but not eliminating) upper-level shearing winds otherwise hostile for developing tropical cyclones.




Link


Here is part of the link that is a good summary of current conditions we are discussing:

In theory, if clusters of showers and thundershowers can develop in the same place as the low-pressure center and persist, it could eventually develop into at least a tropical depression.

However, in reality, winds in the upper atmosphere are expected to remain hostile for development. The National Hurricane Center had been highlighting an area from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to off the Southeast coast for possible subtropical or tropical development during the next five days. They dropped that highlight early Sunday morning and have not reintroduced it.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1051. Sfloridacat5
2:08 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Heavy rain has moved back into my area just S.E. of Fort Myers. We'll be topping 10" for a 3 day total here on the south side of town (South West Regional Airport) in a hour or so.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1050. sporteguy03
2:05 PM GMT on July 27, 2015


As expected, a weak area of low pressure developed at sea level along that stationary front over the weekend, and weak low pressure also formed in the upper levels of the atmosphere over that same area. Both have been drifting over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, west of the Florida peninsula, since they developed. This setup is helping to boost the formation of showers and thunderstorms, and it's reducing (but not eliminating) upper-level shearing winds otherwise hostile for developing tropical cyclones.




Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1049. weathermanwannabe
2:04 PM GMT on July 27, 2015
Here is the skinny from Tally NWS looking to the South:


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Northeast surface flow and a drier than average airmass for this
time of year will persist across the area today with a notable
exception across the southeast big bend. A weak and elongated area
of low pressure will remain across the Florida peninsula.
The
southeast big bend will remain close enough to the deep moisture for
showers and thunderstorms to be likely again this afternoon, but
elsewhere a dry day is expected with afternoon high temperatures in
the mid 90s.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather