Fewer but Stronger Global Tropical Cyclones Due to Ocean Warming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:36 PM GMT on July 23, 2015

Global ocean temperatures hit their warmest levels in recorded history last month. Since hurricanes are heat engines which extract heat energy from the oceans and convert it to the kinetic energy of the storms' winds, we should be concerned about the potential for hurricanes to be stronger as a result of global warming. Indeed, the observed 0.3°C (0.5°F) warming of Earth's oceans over the past 30 years has made more energy available to hurricanes, says a new study published in May in Nature Climate Change by Florida State hurricane scientist James Elsner and the deputy director of the National Typhoon Center in South Korea, Namyoung Kang. The researchers found that this extra heat energy has led to a change in both the frequency and intensity of global tropical storms and hurricanes. Using a new mathematical framework to categorize all global tropical cyclones with wind speeds of at least 39 mph over the past 30 years, the authors showed that the observed warming of Earth's oceans during that time period has led to an average increase in wind speed of about 3 mph (1.3 m/s) for each storm--but there were 6.1 fewer named storms globally each year because of the warmer oceans. A typical year has about 85 named storms globally, so this represents about a 7% decrease in the number of storms.


Figure 1. One of the most spectacular images ever captured of a tropical cyclone from space: Category 5 Super Typhoon Maysak as seen from the International Space Station at approximately 6 pm EDT Tuesday March 31, 2015 (just after dawn local time.) At the time, Mayask had top winds of 160 mph as estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and a central pressure of 905 mb, as estimated by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Image has been brightened and flipped 180 degrees. Image credit: Terry W. Virts.

Why fewer storms, but the strongest ones getting stronger?
More moisture is evaporated from a warmer ocean surface, resulting in water vapor concentrating in the lower atmosphere. Since moist air is less dense than dry air, this creates greater instability, leading to stronger updrafts in developing storms and more intense tropical storms and hurricanes. However, this low-level moisture is not effectively transported to high altitudes, resulting in warmer and drier conditions aloft and stronger high pressure in the middle and the upper troposphere. This high pressure aloft forces thunderstorm activity to concentrate in time and space, resulting in fewer tropical cyclones--but the increased moisture at low levels allows more efficient intensification once a tropical storm is spawned. "Thus tropical cyclone intensity increases at the expense of tropical cyclone frequency", the authors wrote. In an interview at sciencedaily.com, Kang said, "In a warmer year, stronger but fewer tropical cyclones are likely to occur. In a colder year, on the other hand, weaker but more tropical cyclones." Many climate models also predict fewer but more intense tropical cyclones in a future warmer climate--for example, Knutson, T. R. et al., 2010, "Tropical cyclones and climate change", which projected intensity increases of 2 - 11% by 2100. The "official word" on climate, the 2013 IPCC report, predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions. The 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment found that "the intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Impacts
While it is good news that warming of the oceans may potentially lead to fewer hurricanes, this will probably not decrease the total amount of hurricane damage if the strongest storms get stronger. Damage done by a hurricane increases by somewhere between the second and third power of the wind speed, so just a 10 mph increase in winds can cause a major escalation in damage. According to Pielke et al., 2008, over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of U.S. hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth.) This study also found that hurricane damages in the U.S. were doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, due to the increases in wealth and population. If we add in an increase in the frequency of the strongest storms, combined with storm surges that will be riding inland on top of ever-increasing sea levels due to global warming, the damage math for coastal regions gets very impressive for the coming decades.

References
Nam-Young Kang, James B. Elsner, "Trade-off between intensity and frequency of global tropical cyclones", Nature Climate Change, 2015; DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2646

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns, my 2013 blog post

The Atlantic remains quiet
High wind shear and dry, sinking air continue to dominate the tropical Atlantic, and none of the reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation show a tropical depression or tropical storm forming over the next five days. However, the models are showing that the remains of an old cold front extending from Florida's Gulf Coast to the waters offshore of North Carolina could serve as the focus of the development of a low pressure area capable of transforming into a tropical storm, early next week. Anything that does form along this front would move northeastwards, out into the open Atlantic, and not be a significant threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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432. Jedkins01
9:23 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
000
FXUS62 KTBW 241954
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...A WET WEEKEND IS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE AREA...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA...A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SPRAWLED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND A LOW NEAR THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE TOUGHED DOWN TO FL AND THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE - HIGH
PRESSURE RADIATED OUTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...A FRONTAL TROUGH
STRETCHED FROM MO/AR THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES TO ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID
ATLANTIC RIDGED THROUGH THE STRAITS BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
CUBA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THE CANADAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO QUEBEC...FLATTENING
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND HELPING TO MAINTAIN AND
DEEPEN THE TROUGH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO FL. THE FRONTAL
TROUGH SETTLES IN ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF FL WHILE THE
SURFACE RIDGE RESIDES SOUTH OF THE KEYS.

THE RIDGE STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND THE TROUGHING...SURFACE AND
ALOFT...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A
DEEP AND VERY MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL PWAT VALUES
ALL RUN ABOVE 2 INCHES AND CONTAIN A SWATH OF HIGHER VALUES...UP TO
2.4 INCHES...THAT SETTLES IN WITH THE TROUGH. THIS MOISTURE ALONG
WITH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH 4-6 INCH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THESE AMOUNTS AND AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THE FLOODING THREAT. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE DRIFTING DOWN INTO THE AREA HAVE EXPANDED THE
FLOOD WATCH EASTWARD AND ALSO SOUTH...AS FAR SOUTH AS
SARASOTA...DESOTO...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
CONTINUE TO RUN WARM...IN THE WEST FLOW. HOWEVER THE HIGHS STAY
BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE RAIN AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE H500 TROF EXTENDING BACK
SOUTHWEST ALONG A SURFACE TROF AND A BAND OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALONG THE SURFACE TROF SMALL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TO THE EAST. THIS WET PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH RAINY PERIODS EXPECTED THAT WILL
EXACERBATE FLOODING PROBLEMS INTO NEXT WEEK. BY LATE TUESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE MOISTURE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEPING THE FOCUS ON
CENTRAL FL. THE FORECAST REFLECTS ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRECIP
OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUED CHANCE POPS SOUTH.
WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA... TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL.


&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
431. LargoFl
8:09 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
430. intampa
7:44 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 408. ColoradoBob1:



You left out the part where we overthrew their government in 1954 , because of :
Drum roll please !

The Oil Business.
people tend to overlook that dont they... big oil just doesnt seem to have the worlds best interest at heart
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
429. Kenfa03
7:35 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 422. DeepSeaRising:



Better to push Iran back to one year for breakthrough time than the two months they are at now than to abandon a deal, attack Iran and let the cards fall where they may. Remember when we attacked Iraq and Cheney said it'd be over in weeks not months? What could possibly go wrong? Well see Iraq for those answers. Barak Obama had a mandate to get out of Iraq. Why ISIS had the vacuum they did to thrive. Listening to the American people is not always a wise thing to do for a president.

Thanks
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
428. washingtonian115
7:35 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
We really,really need a storm in the open Atlantic to track that's Kinda like Bill(2009)...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
427. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
7:34 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
426. Neapolitan
7:29 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Not sure whether these might have been posted already, but this is an HDR image from the Hutchinson, Kansas, tornado on July 13th:

Click for larger image:

(Image courtesy of Hans Mast w/ Dietrich Mast)

And, as a bonus, this image of the same tornado taken from the unusual perspective of a passing airplane:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
425. Patrap
7:29 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Iraq’s Government, Not Obama, Called Time on the U.S. Troop Presence
By Tony Karon @tonykaronOct. 21, 2011



In one of his final acts in office, President Bush in December of 2008 had signed a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the Iraqi government that set the clock ticking on ending the war he’d launched in March of 2003. The SOFA provided a legal basis for the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq after the United Nations Security Council mandate for the occupation mission expired at the end of 2008. But it required that all U.S. forces be gone from Iraq by January 1, 2012, unless the Iraqi government was willing to negotiate a new agreement that would extend their mandate. And as Middle East historian Juan Cole has noted, “Bush had to sign what the [Iraqi] parliament gave him or face the prospect that U.S. troops would have to leave by 31 December, 2008, something that would have been interpreted as a defeat… Bush and his generals clearly expected, however, that over time Washington would be able to wriggle out of the treaty and would find a way to keep a division or so in Iraq past that deadline.”
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
424. Jedkins01
7:27 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 322. FLWeatherFreak91:

Major event for sure. I live in Odessa along 54 and I've had some standing water in my yard for the past 10 days or so. As of right now, water is about 3 inches from the slab of my house and about to come into the garage. It's "only" rained 2.5" here so far today, and I'm afraid if these rainfall totals come to fruition there will be a lot of homes flooding in this area. My three acre lot has literally been completely submerged twice since I moved here in the mid 90s- in December 1998 and in Feb of 2005. The way the yard looks right now, I'm expecting the third by Monday :/


Geeze man, that doesn't sound good, you might want to consider getting sand bags, no joke, the NWS has extended rain chances to above normal through the entire forecast period in response to model guidance trending towards above average rainfall. They originally had drying by Monday or Tuesday but guidance is quickly heading away from that, especially the euro which has areas of low pressure and 15-25 inches across West Central Florida over the long term. While it's too early to buy into such an event, just the fact it's showing such an insane forecast for us is cause for concern. Even the GFS which isn't nearly as bullish as the euro still has 5-10 inches of rain, and all the other major models out there go nuts on rainfall totals.

Btw I've had 2.14 in Central Pinellas so far today, we didn't really get any training, just one really intense band of heavy thunderstorms with incredible downpours blew through with 3 hours of steady rain and a few small passing downpours after. I couldn't believe how heavy the rain accumulated already considering how fast the line was moving. It came through around 11 AM-12 noon yet the street lights came on because the rain was so heavy.

Stay safe and stay dry, tomorrow and maybe even Sunday will likely be worse than today, so be prepared to leave in case things get out of control flooding wise at your place.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
423. weathermanwannabe
7:24 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Another new article (speaking of renewable energy vs. fossil fuels):

http://news.sciencemag.org/chemistry/2015/07/cool -new-material-could-make-fuel-cells-cheaper


It’s not enough for a new alternative energy technology to work. It also has to be cheap enough to compete with traditional fossil fuels. That’s been a high hurdle for devices called solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) that convert fuels—such as methane and hydrogen—directly to electricity without burning them. But now researchers report that they’ve come up with a new recipe for making key components in one type of SOFC more cheaply, which could sharply lower its overall cost.

The change nearly doubled the power output produced by a single hydrogen SOFC, the researchers report in the current issue of Science. Not only that, but the new cells also matched the output of oxygen ion–conducting cells. What's more, the new BZY cells work best at about 500°C, the sweet spot temperature targeted by the fuel cell industry.

O’Hayre and Haile caution that the new advance won’t revolutionize the SOFC industry overnight. Thus far, O’Hayre’s group has produced just individual cells. Commercial devices, by contrast, work by wiring many such devices together into what’s known as a fuel cell “stack” that generates more power. If future BZY-based SOFC stacks work as well as the individual devices, then it could finally produce the tipping point the fuel cell industry has been looking for.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
422. DeepSeaRising
7:19 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 418. Kenfa03:


I guess this went over my head. Would you make mind elaborating?


Better to push Iran back to one year for breakthrough time than the two months they are at now than to abandon a deal, attack Iran and let the cards fall where they may. Remember when we attacked Iraq and Cheney said it'd be over in weeks not months? What could possibly go wrong? Well see Iraq for those answers. Barak Obama had a mandate to get out of Iraq. Why ISIS had the vacuum they did to thrive. Listening to the American people is not always a wise thing to do for a president.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
421. Patrap
7:17 PM GMT on July 24, 2015



Investors could lose $4.2tn due to impact of climate change, report warns

Private investors stand to lose $4.2tn (£2.7tn) on the value of their holdings from the impact of climate change by 2100 even if global warming is held at plus 2C, a report from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has warned.

If firm action is not taken at the forthcoming climate change talks in Paris and the Earth’s temperature warms by a further 5C then investors are facing losses of almost $7tn at today’s prices, new research shows.

This is more than the total current market capitalisation of the London Stock Exchange with impacts on company holdings that will come not just through extreme weather damage but also through lower economic growth.


The report argued that financial regulators should properly recognise “systematic environmental risk”. It also called for a proper carbon price to be established as well as a tough new climate change treaty to be agreed in Paris.

The latest assessments of the rising risks posed to the global financial system lends enormous new weight to those who are already arguing that companies must be made to disclose their carbon emissions.

“Investors currently face a stark choice. Either they will experience impairments to their holdings in fossil fuel companies should robust regulatory action on climate change take place, or they will face substantial losses across the entire portfolio of manageable assets should little mitigation be forthcoming,” said Brian Gardner, the editor of an EIU report, entitled The cost of inaction: recognising the value at risk from climate change.

The $4.2tn figure is roughly the equivalent to the value of the world’s publicly listed oil and gas companies or the annual gross domestic product of Japan, the world’s third largest economy.


Nick Robins, co-director of the Inquiry into the Design of a Sustainable Financial System at the UN Environment Programme said that financial markets are not treating the threat posed by climate change seriously enough. “We wouldn’t get on a plane if there was a 5% chance of the plane crashing,” he said. “But we’re treating the climate with that same level of risk in a very offhand, complacent way.”

The EIU concludes that there are widespread opportunities for investors to reduce their exposure to environmental risk – one way is to invest in projects that finance a transition to a lower carbon economy.

But it also believes that climate change is likely to represent “an obstacle” for many asset owners and managers to fulfil their fiduciary duties to act in the best interests of those who lend their cash to invest.

According to estimates by the Asset Owners Disclosure Project, only 7% of asset owners calculate the carbon footprint of their investment portfolios and only 1.4% have an explicit target to reduce it.

Bank of England warns of huge financial risk from fossil fuel investments

The EIU follows warnings from the Bank of England about the financial risks posed to fossil fuel companies if global climate action renders their reserves of oil, coal and gas worthless. On Thursday, a report from the London assembly warned that the city was particularly vulnerable to financial risks posed by climate change because its economy is particularly well-connected globally.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
420. nrtiwlnvragn
7:16 PM GMT on July 24, 2015






Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
419. hydrus
7:16 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
418. Kenfa03
7:12 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 397. ACSeattle:


Yes, much better to rain bombs on a country of 80 million. A war in the Middle East. What could possibly go wrong?

I guess this went over my head. Would you make mind elaborating?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
417. ColoradoBob1
7:11 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
From Neven's site -




The whole Arctic is adrift, Eli. MODIS images show the last large intact expanses of thick ice have broken away from the northeast Canadian archipelago. The 2 large blocks of thick ice are moving and the east block is shattering. There's going to be nothing left but shattered mobile ice. The thickest ice in the Arctic has been pulverized.

This doesn't bode well. One more hot summer after this one and little will remain in September.

-Geroge aka FishOutofWater


Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
415. HurrMichaelOrl
7:09 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 402. FOREX:

I just had a long and detailed discussion with my Tropical Crystal Ball and here are the findings. "No Major tropical system to affect the Gulf until 2019."

I truly would not be surprised if that indeed proves to be the case at this point.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
414. gulfbreeze
7:09 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 407. Naga5000:



Iranians are actually very open to the West and Western culture. Where do you get this stuff from? Take your misconceptions elsewhere, throwing liberal around like its a bad word is just childish.
With the +10 we know who the Liberals are!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
413. ColoradoBob1
7:05 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
410. HimacaneBrees

If the Iranians had done the same to us , trust me, you'd remember what happened in 1954.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
412. ncstorm
7:05 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
12z Euro





Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
411. Misanthroptimist
6:56 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 406. ColoradoBob1:

Quoting 390. HimacaneBrees:

A three word history of the oil business -

BOOM and BUST

The words "the oil" while topical in your response are superfluous historically. ;-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
409. weathermanwannabe
6:55 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 407. Naga5000:



Iranians are actually very open to the West and Western culture. Take your misconceptions elsewhere, throwing liberal around like its a bad word is just childish.


The Arab Spring was/is very real in terms of the younger generations living in the Middle East (that have not been radicalized by the religious right-conservatives in their own countries) today. Tons of Iranians studied here in America from the 70's through the 80's (courtesy of the cushy relationship between the Shah and America) and many decided to stay in the US (many being able to convert from student visas to residency ones because of advanced degrees in engineering and other fields where US tech employers were hungry for qualified workers). Many of those students who went back actually have fond memories of the US and would like to see normalized relations.

However (and tying it back to weather-climate change), one of the primary reasons for US involvement in the Middle East has been because of Western oil dependence. American energy independence, the end of oil from Middle Eastern reserves in the coming decades, and "hopeful" transitions toward more renewable energy sources will change the geo-political dynamics of the past 40 years going into the future. I have not read the Iran-US deal so I cannot comment, intelligently, on whether it is good or bad political slogans aside...............
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
408. ColoradoBob1
6:45 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 401. HimacaneBrees:

No bombs have to be dropped.. Normal Liberal BS though. More concerned over 80 million Iranians, that more than likely 99.5% of which HATE Americans, than the impacts that this deal could have on US citizens. The Ayatollah has already stated that they will not follow or listen to what the US has to say. I bet ya'll don't believe that "All Lives Matter" either. What a crock.

Enough... Not saying anymore about it. My entire point with my post was that WE DO NOT NEED A Major HURRICANE IN THE GULF!!!!! I'm out.


You left out the part where we overthrew their government in 1954 , because of :
Drum roll please !

The Oil Business.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
407. Naga5000
6:42 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 401. HimacaneBrees:

No bombs have to be dropped.. Normal Liberal BS though. More concerned over 80 million Iranians, that more than likely 99.5% of which HATE Americans, than the impacts that this deal could have on US citizens. The Ayatollah has already stated that they will not follow or listen to what the US has to say. I bet ya'll don't believe that "All Lives Matter" either. What a crock.

Enough... Not saying anymore about it. My entire point with my post was that WE DO NOT NEED A Major HURRICANE IN THE GULF!!!!! I'm out.


Iranians are actually very open to the West and Western culture. Where do you get this stuff from? Take your misconceptions elsewhere, throwing liberal around like its a bad word is just childish.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
406. ColoradoBob1
6:41 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 390. HimacaneBrees:

A three word history of the oil business -

BOOM and BUST
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
405. JRRP
6:39 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
see u later
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
404. FOREX
6:39 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 401. HimacaneBrees:

No bombs have to be dropped.. Normal Liberal BS though. More concerned over 80 million Iranians, that more than likely 99.5% of which HATE Americans, than the impacts that this deal could have on US citizens. The Ayatollah has already stated that they will not follow or listen to what the US has to say. I bet ya'll don't believe that "All Lives Matter" either. What a crock.

Enough... Not saying anymore about it. My entire point with my post was that WE DO NOT NEED A Major HURRICANE IN THE GULF!!!!! I'm out.
You are correct.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
403. stoormfury
6:38 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
very robust tropical wave with a 1013mb low at 11N 20W moving west. may not survive the atlantic journey with all that dry and stable air abound.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
402. FOREX
6:37 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
I just had a long and detailed discussion with my Tropical Crystal Ball and here are the findings. "No Major tropical system to affect the Gulf until 2019."
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
400. ColoradoBob1
6:35 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Investors could lose $4.2tn due to impact of climate change, report warns

Investments in fossil fuel companies face serious risk from global warming, research by the Economist Intelligence Unit shows

Private investors stand to lose $4.2tn (£2.7tn) on the value of their holdings from the impact of climate change by 2100 even if global warming is held at plus 2C, a report from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has warned.

If firm action is not taken at the forthcoming climate change talks in Paris and the Earth’s temperature warms by a further 5C then investors are facing losses of almost $7tn at today’s prices, new research shows.

This is more than the total current market capitalisation of the London Stock Exchange with impacts on company holdings that will come not just through extreme weather damage but also through lower economic growth.


Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
399. HimacaneBrees
6:23 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Wow.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
398. ColoradoBob1
6:21 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 393. VAstorms:



Also cooling it with fresh not salt water that sinks below the salt water.


Sorry, the fresh water isn't sinking. It's one reason the sea ice is growing around Antarctica.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
397. ACSeattle
6:13 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 390. HimacaneBrees:

The last thing needed in the GOM this summer is a major hurricane. It will shut down the few rigs that are still drilling. Not to mention if it destroy's or damages rigs like Katrina, Rita or Ike did. Thousands of people have already lost their jobs over the past year with no let up to the "bear" oil market in sight. This ignorant Iran deal isn't going to help matters any either. Over the past few months I've seen guys that have been with companies more than 40 years forced into retirement to cut labor costs...

Conoco Phillips just terminated a 3 year contract on 1 of our drillships. They are still paying 440 mill of the contract or an amount equal to 2 years of the day rate. If they are willing to pay that much and not even use the rig then you have wonder just how bad it really may get.....

Yes, much better to rain bombs on a country of 80 million. A war in the Middle East. What could possibly go wrong?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
396. Kenfa03
6:11 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 390. HimacaneBrees:

The last thing needed in the GOM this summer is a major hurricane. It will shut down the few rigs that are still drilling. Not to mention if it destroy's or damages rigs like Katrina, Rita or Ike did. Thousands of people have already lost their jobs over the past year with no let up to the "bear" oil market in sight. This ignorant Iran deal isn't going to help matters any either. Over the past few months I've seen guys that have been with companies more than 40 years forced into retirement to cut labor costs...

Conoco Phillips just terminated a 3 year contract on 1 of our drillships. They are still paying 440 mill of the contract or an amount equal to 2 years of the day rate. If they are willing to pay that much and not even use the rig then you have wonder just how bad it really may get.....

Lot of people taking pay cuts and losing jobs in Texas.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
395. weathermanwannabe
6:08 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
The big retro-grading Gulf ULL (now moving West from the Yucatan area) is helping with
the baroclinic shower activity around Florida by getting out of the way (thus less colder-dry
sinking air) in favor of the frontal bounty over Florida and related moisture now moving into
the Eastern Gulf:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
952 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 12Z KTAE sounding confirms a northwesterly flow regime with a
very moist column. The PW is well above normal at 2.15 inches.
Surface analysis shows a cold front neat Atlanta. This front will
continue to slip south toward the forecast area today, possibly
reaching into our northern zones.
The latest CAM guidance suggests
this could limit afternoon convective coverage across our
northeastern zones below what we have been advertising and we made
a slight adjustment there. The main message today is that
convective coverage will be high. Once again, we will be faced
with a threat of isolated wet microbursts that could prompt
warnings for damaging straight-line winds. SPC has us in a
marginal risk for severe.

																	
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
394. Naga5000
6:05 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
How increasing CO2 heats the oceans

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
393. VAstorms
6:04 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 375. bwi:



Absolutely, near the ice sheets, which seems to be happening both near Greenland and Antarctica! Of course warming continues apace at the tropics, which is why Hansen et al predict a higher chance of superstorms between the cold freshwater-ish pools and the superheated tropics.

Overall, sea surface and sub surface temps increase, land ice melt will add lots of localized complexity.


Also cooling it with fresh not salt water that sinks below the salt water.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
392. jholmestyle
6:03 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 350. ricderr:

I wonder if the warm water off the west coast will prevent the rains that el nino will hopefully bring this winter. Don't think those warm waters were there in 97.

no they weren't there in 97.....as for california rains......looking at NOAA's long range predictions.....southern through central california look like they'll be above average in rainfall.....they're calling for normal in the northern regions however...they're also calling for above average temps...which i'm not so sure bodes well for their snow pack


Shouldn't be a big problem due to the elevation of their mountain range. That does however spell worriesome news for us here in Washington state, as that sounds like a rerun of this past year of rain, not snow falling.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
391. ColoradoBob1
6:01 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 385. PedleyCA:


YIKES....



Buckle yer chin strap.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
390. HimacaneBrees
6:01 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
The last thing needed in the GOM this summer is a major hurricane. It will shut down the few rigs that are still drilling. Not to mention if it destroy's or damages rigs like Katrina, Rita or Ike did. Thousands of people have already lost their jobs over the past year with no let up to the "bear" oil market in sight. This ignorant Iran deal isn't going to help matters any either. Over the past few months I've seen guys that have been with companies more than 40 years forced into retirement to cut labor costs...

Conoco Phillips just terminated a 3 year contract on 1 of our drillships. They are still paying 440 mill of the contract or an amount equal to 2 years of the day rate. If they are willing to pay that much and not even use the rig then you have wonder just how bad it really may get.....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
389. ColoradoBob1
5:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Wildfires threaten villages across the Balkans

Kovac said unusually high temperatures were responsible for the extent and ferocity of the fires.

"We are speaking of a complete meteorological contrast. Last year we were hit by floods, and this year we are dealing with high temperature and wildfires. Both of them have caused damage to an enormous extent," she said.


Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
388. vis0
5:56 PM GMT on July 24, 2015

Quoting 93. ncstorm:

Good article on LiveScience about the Atlantic Ocean being the second largest ocean on Earth

33,400,000 square miles (86,505,603 square kilometers)

The world's second largest ocean, the Atlantic Ocean covers about 21 percent of Earth's surface. Separating North and South America from Europe and Africa, the Atlantic Ocean is the youngest of the world's present-day oceans, having formed in the Jurassic Period (about 200 million to 150 million years ago), according to the International Geology Review.

Located in the northern area of the Atlantic Ocean is the Bermuda Triangle, with its three points touching upon Miami, Bermuda and Puerto Rico. Also known as "the Devil's Triangle," the Bermuda Triangle is believed to be responsible for the mysterious disappearance of more than 50 ships and 20 airplanes over the past century, according to the U.S. Navy.

The Greek philosopher Plato wrote about a mythical island called Atlantis, located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, on which lived a powerful empire that had been created by Poseidon, the God of the Sea.

reply at my zilly pg cmmnt#22 THERE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
387. vis0
5:54 PM GMT on July 24, 2015

Quoting 93. ncstorm:

Good article on LiveScience about the Atlantic Ocean being the second largest ocean on Earth

33,400,000 square miles (86,505,603 square kilometers)

The world's second largest ocean, the Atlantic Ocean covers about 21 percent of Earth's surface. Separating North and South America from Europe and Africa, the Atlantic Ocean is the youngest of the world's present-day oceans, having formed in the Jurassic Period (about 200 million to 150 million years ago), according to the International Geology Review.

Located in the northern area of the Atlantic Ocean is the Bermuda Triangle, with its three points touching upon Miami, Bermuda and Puerto Rico. Also known as "the Devil's Triangle," the Bermuda Triangle is believed to be responsible for the mysterious disappearance of more than 50 ships and 20 airplanes over the past century, according to the U.S. Navy.

The Greek philosopher Plato wrote about a mythical island called Atlantis, located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, on which lived a powerful empire that had been created by Poseidon, the God of the Sea.


Quoting 90. JeffMasters:



That's a good point, but the paper was about global tropical cyclones, of which the Atlantic makes up only about 10% of the activity. In addition, the period of study was 30 years, so the past 8 years of relative inactivity in the Atlantic doesn't show up as much as you might expect.

Jeff Masters
my reply on my zilly pg cmmnt#23
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
386. Greg01
5:54 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 383. Naga5000:


You never invite me over for iced tea.


Good thing - I think he serves it at room temperature ;-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
385. PedleyCA
5:52 PM GMT on July 24, 2015

Quoting 370. ColoradoBob1:

Paul Beckwith: Can global sea level rise 7 meters by 2070?

Beckwith comments on the new Hansen paper-

13 min video
YIKES....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
384. MaineGuy
5:52 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 333. ColoradoBob1:



I posted this not so much as what was being said, as who was saying it.

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch think it’s going to get a lot worse.

Hardly a group of granola crunchers.



This is what will kill off denialism once and for all. As the big reinsurers start to redline entire vulnerable regions, and the Pentagon takes global warming into account, and investment banks start treating it as a known and accepted risk, the ideological objections will be swept aside. It's inevitable. Hopefully the process happens quickly enough.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
383. Naga5000
5:51 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Quoting 364. Neapolitan:

I know, right? Just last evening I poured myself a nice, cold iced tea, then sat the drink on the table in my hot dining room and forgot about it for a few hours. But when I remembered it and went back, it was still there, just as cold and crisp as it was when I had poured it hours earlier! Conduction no longer exists! Who knew?!


You never invite me over for iced tea.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
382. unknowncomic
5:51 PM GMT on July 24, 2015
Shear 10 days out. Still other issues-SAL and stable air.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather