An Avalanche of New Models for Severe Weather Prediction

By: Bob Henson , 6:33 PM GMT on July 18, 2015

Not so long ago, forecasters at NOAA had just one high-resolution computer model to tell them where thunderstorms might erupt later in the day. Now there’s a whole cornucopia of models that project how storms will evolve, hour by hour, at fine scale. It’s a bit like having a large network of friends and family to consult when you’re making a big personal decision, instead of asking just one person for a single opinion that might steer you right or wrong. Processing all those viewpoints does take some time, though. Forecasters practiced using the array of new guidance during May and early June as part of the 2015 Spring Forecasting Experiment at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) in Norman (see my posts of May 5 and May 21).

Here’s one reason why predicting specific thunderstorms has remained such a challenge: traditional computer models simply aren’t fine-grained enough to explicitly portray individual showers and storms. Instead, they use convective parameterization, where a model takes favorable large-scale conditions as a cue to place showers and thunderstorms (convection) inside model grid cells that may be 10 or 20 miles wide. In contrast, “convection-allowing” models have grid cells that are 6 miles wide or less, which means a single large thunderstorm can emerge naturally across multiple grid cells instead of being artificially implanted by the model within each cell. This allows for a much more realistic portrayal of thunderstorms, with chunky blobs replaced by finely detailed filaments and bands (see Figure 1).


Figure 1. A little over a decade ago, operational forecasters might have used a model-generated forecast of 3-hour precipitation (left image, at 40-km resolution) to gain insight into thunderstorm development. Advances in computing power and modeling have allowed for higher resolution, explicit modeling of showers and thunderstorms, and more frequent time steps within the model. At right: simulated radar reflectivity from a numerical model with 4-km grid resolution and hourly forecast output. Image credit: Greg Carbin, NOAA/SPC.


This year's forecasting experiment called on 18 different model configurations, issued as often as once per hour, with resolutions mostly between 1 and 4 km. Most of these models were run multiple times in ensemble mode, with small variations in the starting-point data designed to mimic the uncertainty in initial observations. All this added up to a bounty of model-generated guidance.

The main job in the forecasting experiment was to issue short-term probabilities for the likelihood of tornadoes, severe hail, severe wind, and "significant" severe hail and wind (2" diameter hailstones or 65-knot winds). SPC already estimates such odds for the current day and the following two days, but this experiment tested more frequent probabilities, issued several times a day for periods spanning 1 to 4 hours. The new convection-allowing models provided ample raw material for this task. A variety of forecasters from the public, private, and academic sectors, including participants from across the United States as well as from Australia, Canada, England, and Hong Kong, convened at the testbed to evaluate the new guidance. “Part of what makes this experiment special is the diversity of the participants,” said Adam Clark (NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory), one of the experiment’s lead planners. “It’s designed to mix folks together who typically don’t interact much as part of their regular jobs. The different perspectives make things fun, engaging, and interesting, and most importantly help foster new ideas and directions for future research.”


Figure 2. Ariel Cohen (left), from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, was among the participants in the 2015 Spring Forecast Experiment. Image credit: NOAA.

The task facing all this talent was to see how much value they could add to an automated short-term outlook derived from the ensembles. Of course, there’s not nearly enough time to scrutinize every model run. “We could look at individual ensemble members, but that gets a little cumbersome,” said Greg Carbin, warning coordination meteorologist at the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC). “The more important questions are: What’s the model spread? Where do the models agree and disagree? What’s the character of storms within the ensembles? We issued forecasts based on all this information, then determined how well the forecasts verified.”


Figure 2. An experimental forecast, issued seven hours in advance, for the likelihood of any type of severe weather in a one-hour period (6:00 - 7:00 pm on May 19, 2015), based on probabilities generated by model ensembles. Colored circles show the percentage likelihood of at least one severe report within a 25-mile radius of any point. Colored icons show the actual severe weather that occurred: red = tornado, blue = severe wind, green = severe hail, and green triangle = “significant” severe hail, or at least 2” in diameter. Image credit: Greg Carbin, NOAA/SPC.


Carbin saw encouraging signs this spring in the ensembles’ ability to provide insight into storm mode, such as whether a day will feature potentially tornadic supercells. On May 19, forecasters used the model output to place parts of north Texas in a 2-to-5 percent tornado risk (the odds that a tornado would occur in the next hour within 25 miles of a given point). “This was a day with some uncertainty in tornado potential, especially south of the Red River,” said Carbin. “There was a robust signal in the ensemble data that short-track, but intense, rotating storms were likely. Our experimental forecast for total severe threat, based almost entirely on the ensemble information, verified very well.” (See Figure 2, above, for an example.)

James Correia (NOAA), SPC’s liaison to the testbed, also came away from this spring’s test with some cautious optimism. “As in years past with multiple ensembles, we always get multiple answers. I fully expected to get 60+ answers from 60+ members. I think we learned, again, that we need to go beyond probability to really hear what the ensembles are telling us.” For example, the high-resolution models often produce high values of updraft helicity, an indicator of storm rotation. But there aren’t enough fine-scale observations to confirm that storms are in fact producing that much helicity. In this sense, said Correia, “the ensembles are showing us what’s possible but not necessarily probable.”

Along with providing more confidence and lead time on the biggest, most dangerous outbreaks, ensembles may help get a handle on what some meteorologists call “mesoscale accidents”. This informal term refers to localized severe events that develop against the grain of mesoscale conditions that seem to be unfavorable for a significant event. “Mesoscale accidents are common in at least one or two members of an ensemble and can give forecasters a heads-up that something 'unexpected' has a small, but non-negligible, chance of occurring,” Correia said. “Knowing when and how to trust such a signal or classify it as noise is a challenge.” Getting familiar with the quirks of each model is a crucial step, but many models are so fresh on the scene that their idiosyncrasies aren't yet fully known.

MPAS: The future of multiday storm modeling?
Along with drawing on a new wealth of same-day model guidance, forecasters at the 2015 Spring Forecasting Experiment also test-drove output from a newly configured model that provides what was once thought to be either pointless or impossible: explicit modeling of showers and thunderstorms up to five days in advance.

The Model for Prediction across Scales (MPAS) is being developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (atmospheric component) and Los Alamos National Laboratory (ocean component). As its name implies, MPAS can operate on a variety of scales in both space and time. It uses an innovative grid: unlike the standard array of grid cells carved out by latitude and longitude, MPAS uses a hexagon-based grid called an unstructured Voronoi mesh (think of the pattern on a soccer ball). This eliminates problems like the narrowing of grid cells closer to the poles. The MPAS grid also allows for a near-seamless tightening of resolution where it’s most desired, such as over the deep tropics to depict hurricane development.


Figure 3. The honeycomb-like structure of MPAS (left) eliminates many of the challenges of model grids based on latitude and longitude. Each day in May 2015, MPAS was run with a grid-cell spacing of 3 km across most of North America (right; 3-km cells lie within the 4-km contour), with the resolution tapering off at greater distances from the continent. Forecasts were continued with a slightly different configuration for the PECAN field experiment in June and early July. Image credits: MPAS/Bill Skamarock, NCAR.


For the 2015 experiment, the atmospheric component of MPAS was run daily with a top resolution across a circle centered on North America of 3 kilometers (about 2 miles) between grid cells, surrounded by a concentric mesh with progressively lower resolution (see Figure 3). The result was a total of nearly 7 million grid cells covering the Northern Hemisphere. In the real world, each day’s convection shapes how the next day's will evolve, so the point of this MPAS test wasn’t to determine exactly where a particular thunderstorm would be in 120 hours. Instead, the idea was to employ MPAS’s skill at modeling larger-scale features in order to gauge what types of convection to expect over the next five days--squall lines, supercells, etc.--and where the heaviest activity might be focused.

Like any fine-scale model, MPAS includes much more realistic topography and land use than that found in a traditional, coarser model. Also, MPAS appears to capture the diurnal cycle of convection especially well, which is vital for multiday prediction. In a couple of cases, MPAS gave several days’ notice of where a large tornadic supercell was likely to emerge and track. (See Figure 4.)


Figure 4. Five days in advance, MPAS predicted that a band of strong updraft helicity (an index of potential storm rotation and severe weather) would emerge around Wichita Falls, TX, to near Tulsa, OK, on May 16, 2015 (left). A supercell ended up producing multiple tornadoes and very large hail close to that track (right). A second area of severe weather predicted for south-central Kansas ended up smaller and further to the northeast. Image credits: NCAR (left), NOAA/SPC (right).


According to Bill Skamarock, who leads the MPAS project at NCAR, this appears to be the first time that any model on Earth has carried out such high-resolution forecasting of showers and thunderstorms out to five days on a daily basis. “We have been pleasantly surprised as to how consistent, plausible, and even correct the longer-term forecasts from MPAS have been,” said Louis Wicker (NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory). Wicker and Skamarock are collaborating with Joseph Klemp (NCAR), Steven Cavallo (University of Oklahoma), and Adam Clark (NOAA) on post-experiment analysis. One test is to see how the MPAS results compare to the predictions from a traditional large-scale model (GFS) with an embedded finer-scale model (WRF).

“What an opportunity to see what a global model can do at convection-allowing scales!” said NOAA’s James Correia. "We learned that convection is at the beck and call of the larger-scale features…no surprise there. But to see a model predict mesoscale convective systems a few days out and be 'close' is always very encouraging.”

According to Skamarock, much work remains to be done on how best to assimilate radar, satellite, and other data into the starting-point analyses of each MPAS run. Depending on the forecast goal, it’s an open question whether it makes more sense to put resources into an MPAS-like system versus a full set of shorter-range, convection-allowing models. But MPAS may be just the first of its kind. Skamarock pointed to the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, where global model resolution has been steadily rising in line with Moore’s Law. The current high-resolution version of the flagship ECMWF model has a 16-km resolution covering the globe. If you extend the ECMWF progress from the 1980s to the year 2030, you end up with a global model that boasts 2.5-km resolution. According to Skamarock, "We are not that far from the point where we can run global models at convection-resolving scales."

Bob Henson



The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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656. georgevandenberghe
6:35 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 647. Climate175:




Long ago in a land far far away
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
655. Neapolitan
5:39 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 607. StormTrackerScott:

So true Ryan have already seen the headlines this morning.
You have? I've yet to see a single headline anywhere attributing this weekend's record SoCal rainfall to climate change. Since you've "already seen" them, I'm sure you won't mind sharing them with us. TIA.

Personally, though, I'm with Maue and you. That is, I'm convinced that this summer's multiple recordbreaking heat waves in the US, Europe, and Asia--and the ongoing unprecedented California drought, and the unheard-of rainfalls in Oklahoma and Texas and Illinois and Indiana and Ohio, and the crazy heat and forest fires in Alaska and Siberia, and the disappearing Arctic sea ice, and the fact that precipitation records for several SoCal locations were smashed beyond recognition this weekend, and so on and so forth--have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that 2015 is likely to be the warmest year ever in the recorded history of mankind. It's clearly all just coincidence...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
654. TimSoCal
4:19 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 645. Gearsts:

Send it here, we'll take it.


We will also take more tropical moisture here in SoCal.
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653. Patrap
4:15 PM GMT on July 20, 2015

West Antarctica,October 2014 NASA

The world’s most famous climate scientist just outlined an alarming scenario for our planet’s future

By Chris Mooney July 20 at 10:37 AM

James Hansen has often been out ahead of his scientific colleagues.

With his 1988 congressional testimony, the then-NASA scientist is credited with putting the global warming issue on the map by saying that a warming trend had already begun. “It is time to stop waffling so much and say that the evidence is pretty strong that the greenhouse effect is here,” Hansen famously testified. Since then, he has drawn headlines for accusing the Bush administration of trying to muzzle him, getting arrested protesting the Keystone XL Pipeline, and setting forward the case for why carbon dioxide levels need to be kept below 350 parts per million in the atmosphere (they’re currently around 400).

Now Hansen — who retired in 2013 from his NASA post, and is currently an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s Earth Institute — is publishing what he says may be his most important paper. Along with 16 other researchers — including leading experts on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets — he has authored a lengthy study outlining an scenario of potentially rapid sea level rise combined with more intense storm systems.

It’s an alarming picture of where the planet could be headed — and hard to ignore, given its author. But it may also meet with considerable skepticism in the scientific community, given that its scenarios of sea level rise occur more rapidly than those ratified by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its latest assessment of the state of climate science, published in 2013.

“We conclude that 2°C global warming above the preindustrial level, which would spur more ice shelf melt, is highly dangerous,” note Hansen and his co-authors. 2 degrees Celsius is a widely accepted international target for how much the world should limit global warming.

The research is slated to appear this week in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, an open-access journal published by the European Geophysical Union in which much of the peer review process, in effect, happens in public — a paper is uploaded, and then other scientists submit comments on it, and then the authors respond.

The research takes, as one of its starting points, evidence regarding accelerating ice loss from some parts of the planet’s ice sheets, especially West Antarctica. One of Hansen’s co-authors on the new paper, Eric Rignot of NASA, was the lead author of a 2014 study suggesting that, as one NASA press release put it, the decline of West Antarctica could now be “irreversible.”


more:,...
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652. sporteguy03
4:12 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 650. Gearsts:

Convective feedback?

I would think if any low were to develop it would left behind piece of energy at the tail end of the front. Where that energy is located is key is it in the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic? That could be why the models are showing two systems which might really only be one. Of course proximity to land is important too.
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651. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:10 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
650. Gearsts
4:08 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 649. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Model guidance are actually potentially showing 2 storms. One on either side of Florida. And with 28-31 degrees Celsius water temps , and a favorable upper level environment, they have the potential to strengthen significantly. The culprit behind this setup, is an upper level frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley and the Northeast U.S.. This front should exit the east coast and gulf coast by Wednesday and Thursday, and become nearly stationary by Friday and Saturday. This scenario will set us up for at least one cyclone, maybe 2 on either side of Florida, near the panhandle, and near the Bahamas.
Convective feedback?
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649. tiggerhurricanes2001
4:05 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 639. washingtonian115:

Looks like Danny will be coming back for revenge this year xD.lol I want it to form on the gulf side of Florida....Tired of dealing with storms up here.Already had enough dealing with our unusual thunderstorms.

And looks like no snowball will be thrown on Capital Hill today as temperatures will be in the upper 90's with humidity making it feel like 105-110 degrees outside.Yesterday D.C reached 98...we could surpass that today.

Model guidance are actually potentially showing 2 storms. One on either side of Florida. And with 28-31 degrees Celsius water temps , and a favorable upper level environment, they have the potential to strengthen significantly. The culprit behind this setup, is an upper level frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley and the Northeast U.S.. This front should exit the east coast and gulf coast by Wednesday and Thursday, and become nearly stationary by Friday and Saturday. This scenario will set us up for at least one cyclone, maybe 2 on either side of Florida, near the panhandle, and near the Bahamas.
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648. Gearsts
4:04 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
647. Climate175
4:03 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
646. AdamReith
4:02 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 639. washingtonian115:

And looks like no snowball will be thrown on Capital Hill today as temperatures will be in the upper 90's with humidity making it feel like 105-110 degrees outside.Yesterday D.C reached 98...we could surpass that today.
I hope Inhofe gets a heat rash.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
645. Gearsts
4:01 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 639. washingtonian115:

Looks like Danny will be coming back for revenge this year xD.lol I want it to form on the gulf side of Florida....Tired of dealing with storms up here.Already had enough dealing with our unusual thunderstorms.

And looks like no snowball will be thrown on Capital Hill today as temperatures will be in the upper 90's with humidity making it feel like 105-110 degrees outside.Yesterday D.C reached 98...we could surpass that today.
Send it here, we'll take it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
644. Patrap
4:01 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Hurricane Gloria

Event Overview
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
643. AdamReith
4:00 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 639. washingtonian115:

Looks like Danny will be coming back for revenge this year...
No-o-o-o-o!!

Danny knocked out my power for two days!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
642. Climate175
3:57 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 639. washingtonian115:

Looks like Danny will be coming back for revenge this year xD.lol I want it to form on the gulf side of Florida....Tired of dealing with storms up here.Already had enough dealing with our unusual thunderstorms.

And looks like no snowball will be thrown on Capital Hill today as temperatures will be in the upper 90's with humidity making it feel like 105-110 degrees outside.Yesterday D.C reached 98...we could surpass that today.
This will help cool down.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
641. hydrus
3:53 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 640. Patrap:


remember that one...i flew away..:)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
640. Patrap
3:50 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
639. washingtonian115
3:49 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Looks like Danny will be coming back for revenge this year xD.lol I want it to form on the gulf side of Florida....Tired of dealing with storms up here.Already had enough dealing with our unusual thunderstorms.

And looks like no snowball will be thrown on Capital Hill today as temperatures will be in the upper 90's with humidity making it feel like 105-110 degrees outside.Yesterday D.C reached 98...we could surpass that today.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
638. TCweatherman
3:34 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Tropical trouble next week?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
637. Patrap
3:34 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
The outflow boundaries from the Coastal Storms are heading N and may bring us some relief early today. Hopefully

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636. Gearsts
3:29 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 633. JRRP:

wave in Africa
Looks like a TD.
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635. blooflame
3:28 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
I'm curious - is MPAS related to FIM? FIM, from my reading, uses an 'isocahedral' grid which has hexagonal shaped tiles, with a few pentagonal ones, but I don't remember them varying in size like those pictured.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
634. Patrap
3:27 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 630. Skyepony:

Looks like eastbound I-10 at the Arizona/California border will be closed a while. There was some people lucky not to die in that flood induced bridge collapse.



That would be this EAS event we saw yesterday evening here.

Quoting 482. Patrap:

073  
WGUS55 KPSR 200021  
FFWPSR  
CAC065-200315-  
/O.NEW.KPSR.FF.W.0007.150720T0021Z-150720T0315Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ  
521 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
SOUTH CENTRAL RIVERSIDE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...  
 
* UNTIL 815 PM PDT  
 
* AT 513 PM PDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT INTERSTATE 10  
AT EAGLE MOUNTAIN ROAD HAS BEEN CLOSED...DUE TO A BRIDGE COLLAPSE.
 
THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING ALONG INTERSTATE 10 FROM EAGLE  
MOUNTAIN ROAD INTO DESERT CENTER DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH DOPPLER  
RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWING 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN THE  
WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY INDICATING MORE STORMS  
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THESE STORMS COULD CAUSE  
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THE AREA.  
 
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
DESERT CENTER.  
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE  
WARNED AREA.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.  
 
DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.  
 
STAY AWAY OR BE SWEPT AWAY. RIVER BANKS AND CULVERTS CAN BECOME  
UNSTABLE AND UNSAFE.  
 
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD  
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.  
 
PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU  
CAN DO SO SAFELY.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3384 11531 3344 11530 3343 11568 3384 11566  
 
 
 
MP  
 
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
633. JRRP
3:22 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
wave in Africa
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632. Sfloridacat5
3:17 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Once the temperature reaches 80 degrees inside the house (with high dewpoints), I start to become very uncomfortable and I have difficulty sleeping at night.

I have friends that live in San Antonio, Texas that don't use any AC. At about 7 pm in the evening, the temperature can be in the low 90s inside their house. The only time I wasn't miserable was from about 5am to about 12 pm, after that it was pure torture.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
631. hydrus
3:14 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 628. Skyepony:

There is three northern Indiana reservoirs that are at record levels and not but a foot or two from their spillways. They protect the towns of Wabash, Peru and Logansport from extreme flooding.
Yep..Seems like whenever there is a Nino, the cental regions of the U.S. suffer epic flooding..1993 flood comes to mind..1951 and 1973 were bad too...1844 was not documented well, but was severe....Link

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
630. Skyepony (Mod)
3:13 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Looks like eastbound I-10 at the Arizona/California border will be closed a while. There was some people lucky not to die in that flood induced bridge collapse.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
629. tlawson48
3:08 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
The part of Maine I grew up in had a slightly different method for dealing with summertime temperatures, we called it a "woodstove". :)

Not uncommon to get up in mid July at 0500 in the morning to 41F and made the mistake of leaving all the windows open the previous night and it would be freezing cold and damp inside the house. Light up the stove for a few hours to drive the chill out. Days like that would probably only top out at 68F to 70F anyway.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
628. Skyepony (Mod)
3:04 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
There is three northern Indiana reservoirs that are at record levels and not but a foot or two from their spillways. They protect the towns of Wabash, Peru and Logansport from extreme flooding.
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627. Patrap
3:01 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
626. georgevandenberghe
3:01 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 593. BahaHurican:

TREES. In the Bahamas we used to rely on the persistent easterlies and the shade of large trees to make it through this. Additionally the older folk got up early and did as much of the physical tasks as possible, and stayed out of the noonday and afternoon sun afap.


My DC metro home was built in 1919 (front half) and is designed for good air circulation (uuhh a problem in winter). I might try this when the kids are out of the house.

The house above the street has a rock pit for several feet below the entire basement and a grate in the basement to draw in the cooler air.. also built in 1919.

My ancient decaying car at FSU did not have AC. I did have it in my apartment.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
625. islander101010
3:00 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
cmc is showing something trying to get going just east of georgia and north fl.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
624. Patrap
2:51 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Audubon Park tied the July 19th record of 100F yesterday here, and it was AWFUL.


We had a Mothership roll thru round 9pm last night and dropped us to 79F and It felt like fall to me.


Record Report

Statement as of 11:30 PM CDT on July 19, 2015

... Record high temperature set at Slidell...

a record high temperature of 99 degrees was set at Slidell
today. This breaks the old record of 98 set in 1980.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
623. Patrap
2:47 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Indeed hydrus, She had a litter of 8 June 6th, or D Day.

She had 5 the night of Isaac here in Aug 2012. So this is it for Her.

She a good Momma too.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
622. AdamReith
2:46 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 593. BahaHurican:

TREES. In the Bahamas we used to rely on the persistent easterlies and the shade of large trees to make it through this. Additionally the older folk got up early and did as much of the physical tasks as possible, and stayed out of the noonday and afternoon sun afap.
In Houston, everyone had attic fans. We closed the windows on the sunny side of the house and opened them on the shady side. My family couldn't afford a window AC unit until I was 10.

It was bloody miserable from mid-May thru September. It's no accident that none of us kids were conceived during those months. ;^)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
621. hydrus
2:44 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 606. Patrap:



Most likely mopping up behind Miss Nola Roux's 6, 6 week old German Shepherd Puppies.


I know what your going through..For example, we had a litter of 11 in 1995..The Mother weighed 195 lbs in a box of 1 lb pups. They grow huge quick, as does the task of cleaning the muck. Heat index was 105 here yesterday. The hottest in a few years.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
620. Patrap
2:43 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Had a nice lunch meeting with wunderblogger Koritheman and another here in New Orleans yesterday.
Kori is a cool cat and really smart on weather, esp the tropics.


Meteosat 0 degree Imagery Infrared 10.8 Color AFRICA
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
619. CaribBoy
2:43 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 615. barbamz:


This is really locking bad, CaribBoy. Are those trees and shrubs dead or will they become green again once you get enough rain?


Yes, the drought is really bad this year compared with 2013/2014. And I don't see an end anytime soon.

The trees are definitely struggling, and many lost all their leaves. But they are still alive, and should become green again if we get some good rains during the coming fall. But if we don't and must wait until mid 2016 for decent rainfall, some may die.

El Nino is the main culprit.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
618. JustDucky251
2:39 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 616. rmbjoe1954:



That really shows the Carib is closed for business.


For now. Caribbean has been getting less and less destructive. Another 2-3 weeks should show possibilities.
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617. unknowncomic
2:37 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Nice spin on that Africa wave.

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616. rmbjoe1954
2:35 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 614. Patrap:




That really shows the Carib is closed for business.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
615. barbamz
2:34 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 613. CaribBoy:




At least the sal is gone for now... could allow some light and quick showers.
The webcams have been upgraded to improve quality and definition.

This is really locking bad, CaribBoy. Are those trees and shrubs dead or will they become green again once you get enough rain?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
614. Patrap
2:30 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
613. CaribBoy
2:25 PM GMT on July 20, 2015






At least the sal is gone for now... could allow some light and quick showers.

The webcams have been upgraded to improve quality and definition.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
612. CaribBoy
2:21 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
The drought is really severe now.. possibly unprecedented. Only 2.5mm in St Martin so far this month, and 10mm here.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
611. StormTrackerScott
2:20 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 609. Patrap:

All the Worlds weather now takes place in a Warmer, more WV laden atmosphere.

Good obs fo a "tweeter".

: )


Super Strong El-Nino will continue to allow storms that form in the E-Pac to continue to impact Cali/SW US thru September at times given this sea surface signature.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
610. Patrap
2:18 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
609. Patrap
2:16 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
All the Worlds weather now takes place in a Warmer, more WV laden atmosphere.

Good obs fo a "tweeter".

: )
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
608. StormTrackerScott
2:14 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 605. Patrap:


This used to be a forest. Photograph: Richard Ellis/Corbis

America must lead the climate change fight or our leadership record is toast

More prosperous countries have the largest carbon emissions and poorer countries bear the consequences


The atmosphere is warming. Ice is melting. Droughts are worsening; seas are warming, rising and acidifying. We’re past theory and well into measurement on those points. Pope Francis recently observed that “[n]ever have we so hurt and mistreated our common home as we have in the last 200 years.” The matter of climate change is urgent, and it commands a moral dimension.

The United States has an especially strong responsibility to respond to this, the moral issue of our age. We have long been viewed globally as an exceptional country, with the world’s most powerful economy and military and a government that provides basic freedoms for its citizens. An American failure to lead on climate change will imperil our special status and dampen our global power to lead.

Climate change is causing irreparable harm to people who can least afford to respond. While upper-income societies can pay a greater share of their wealth for essentials as scarcity increases, marginal societies must go without. Their struggles – for water, farmland and fisheries – will be desperate, generating instability and conflict.

The US Department of Defense’s Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) repeatedly raises this key threat. The 2010 QDR concluded that “[w]hile climate change alone does not cause conflict, it may act as an accelerant of instability or conflict, placing a burden to respond on civilian institutions and militaries around the world.” Four years later, the 2014 Review was just as straightforward in its warnings.

The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment echoes what our military and diplomatic leaders are saying about the dangers of climate change: “climate change can indirectly increase risks of violent conflicts in the form of civil war and inter-group violence by amplifying well-documented drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks.”

A world of heightened competition, conflict and instability will lead to more human suffering, and open the door to greater instability and extremism.

As the country that generated the most wealth in the carbon economy, as the world’s most profligate emitter of carbon and as the essential nation upon which the world counts for leadership, we have a moral obligation to respond. America cannot avoid ownership of this challenge.

We are in a period of consequences. Yet we are in a period of political crisis at home. Carbon polluters are calling the tune in Congress; the present Republican party is unwilling or unable to stand up to the polluters; and a massive propaganda effort is churning full-steam to deny the carbon problem. The Obama administration has in the face of congressional dysfunction moved forward with new carbon pollution limits for power plants, and we applaud its efforts. But if we are to be seen as credible in the eyes of a world ravaged by the effects of climate change, Congress will need to step in and build upon those efforts to produce further reductions in emissions. And we will need to encourage international efforts to reach a climate agreement like those slated for Paris this year.

If you believe, as we do, that the world needs America – if you believe, as we do, that America is the essential and exceptional nation – then getting climate right matters. A world fouled and changed by carbon pollution, in ways many in Congress foresaw but ignored, will not believe it has much need for the example America claims to offer. As Pope Francis said, “Those who will have to suffer the consequences of what we are trying to hide will not forget this failure of conscience and responsibility.”

Failing to lead at this moment of necessity will soon and long darken the lamp America holds up to the world. And the tide that has quietly sustained us could begin to shift.



Is that the MDR only thing missing is the dust in the background.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
607. StormTrackerScott
2:14 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
So true Ryan have already seen the headlines this morning.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 11h11 hours ago
Even tho there's a strong El NIno & remnants of a hurricane, SoCal & SW monsoon rains are mostly due to climate change. #tomorrowsheadlines
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
606. Patrap
2:02 PM GMT on July 20, 2015
Quoting 602. BahaHurican:

Lol... where were you when I needed this last week? :-)


Most likely mopping up behind Miss Nola Roux's 6, 6 week old German Shepherd Puppies.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather