Typhoon Nangka Brings Torrential Rains to Japan

By: Bob Henson , 7:11 PM GMT on July 16, 2015

Extreme rainfall is dousing much of Japan in the wake of Typhoon Nangka, which made landfall at 11:07 pm Thursday local time (10:07 am EDT Thursday) near Muroto City, on the south coast of the island of Shikoku. Nangka came ashore as a minimal typhoon, with sustained winds of just 75 mph. However, its shield of rich moisture is colliding with Japan’s mountains and a preexisting stationary front, making floods and mudslides the main hazard to contend with. At least two deaths have been reported from Nangka thus far. Radar-estimated rainfall rates are topping 3”/hour in some locations, and a total of 521 millimeters (20.51”) had fallen by late Thursday at the village of Kamikitayama, south of Osaka. Up to three feet of rain could fall in some locations, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Nangka’s trek over the Japanese mountains will leave it in a weakened state as it arcs northeastward as a tropical storm. A second landfall—perhaps as a weak tropical storm or depression--is possible in northern Japan on Sunday morning local time, as Nangka recurves sharply toward the east. This path will keep much of Japan in the southeastern quadrant of the storm, with rains pushing into the northern islands of Honshu and Hokkaido, although the amounts should decrease as Nangka weakens. “Sediment disaster alerts” for potential mudslides are in effect along the south coast of Japan, including the Tokyo region. For more on Nangka, including precipitation outlooks by region, see the detailed weather.com post by Nick Wiltgen and Jon Erdman. At the bottom of this post is an animated loop of Nangka’s approach to Japan as captured by Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite.

On the heels of Nangka is Tropical Storm Halola, now located about 170 miles west-southwest of Wake Island. Halola has weakened over the last 12 – 24 hours, thanks to moderate westerly shear (15 – 20 mph), but conditions will support restrengthening as Halola begins bending around a strong ridge to its north and wind shear decreases. There is model disagreement over Halola’s eventual track next week: the 0000 GMT Thursday run of the ECWMF model keeps Halola moving westward to Japan’s latitude, while the last several GFS runs have consistently recurved Halola before it has a chance to threaten Japan. There is plenty of time for track forecasts to evolve over the next few days.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Enrique (left) and Hurricane Dolores (right), as of 1830 GMT (2:30 pm EDT) on Thursday, July 16. Image credit: NOAA.

Dolores to send moisture into southwest U.S.
Hurricane Dolores continues churning through the Northeast Pacific as a Category 3 storm. At 11:00 am EDT, the center of Dolores was located about 240 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Peak sustained winds were just above the Cat. 3 threshold, at 115 mph. Dolores is moving steadily northwest at about 7 mph. As it encounters colder waters and greater wind shear, Dolores should begin to weaken by Friday, if not sooner.

Dolores’s southern (weaker) eyewall passed over tiny Socorro Island, about 370 miles west of Mexico’s west coast, on Wednesday. According to weather.com, an automated weather station reported winds of 80 mph, with gusts to 114 mph. There were no immediate reports of damage from the island, which hosts a small naval station. Officers there could be excused for some nervousness during a major El Niño event. In September 1997, during the onset of the last El Niño that was comparable in strength to the current one, Category 5 Hurricane Linda became the Northeast Pacific’s strongest tropical cyclone on record. Linda passed just south of Socorro Island (the only land area affected by the storm), putting the island in its northern eyewall while packing winds of 150 knots (more than 170 mph) and a central pressure of 905 mph. Some damage to meteorological equipment was reported.

Models are now in general agreement that Dolores will continue moving west-northwest and weaken before it has a chance to recurve toward the Pacific coast (although I would not be surprised if the cyclone holds together longer than usual for such a system). A moisture plume now extending from Dolores across southern Baja California is expected to push into the southwest U.S. by this weekend. Precipitable water—the amount of moisture above a given spot—is projected to climb as high as 2” over the lower Colorado Valley by Friday night. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is calling for a slight chance of rainfall exceeding the local flash flood guidance values across central Arizona on Friday and Saturday.

Further west, Tropical Storm Enrique is doggedly clinging to life. Although little convection is evident, RapidScat data from the International Space Station continues to indicate tropical storm force winds, according to the National Hurricane Center. NHC projects Enrique to become a depression by Thursday night and a remnant low by Friday night.

Bob Henson



Video 1. Infrared imagery from Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite shows the evolution of Typhoon Nangka as it makes landfall on Japan’s south coast. Image credit: NWS Ocean Prediction Center, via #GRPG.






The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 256 - 206

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

256. Envoirment
3:49 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Nevermind.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
255. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:41 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
254. FLWeatherFreak91
3:31 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Quoting 242. sanflee76:


You guys are getting pounded on the west coast! Looks like a similar pattern today so again not expecting much here in E CFL.
It seems to be clearing up a little faster today than yesterday, so if we get enough heating over here along the west coast we might see a more robust seabreeze form and spark convection on the east coast later in the afternoon :) But even if that doesn't happen, you guys still got plenty of rain within the past week to hold you over
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
253. BayFog
3:27 PM GMT on July 17, 2015


Besides being remarkably persistent, the moist upper outflow of Enrique is flowing into a convergent belt around Dolores. While the belt looks dry on the vapor loop, this is deceptive in that it's only reflecting the subsidence of the upper convergence. The convergence may actually be contributing to an enhancement of the humidity of the mid and lower levels around Dolores which may prolong its existence. Meanwhile, a significant upper trough over western Canada is digging south over the Great Basin, with a strong offshore wind component coming off the associated jet. This is setting up an unusual easterly flow that might well keep Dolores from moving east as it moves over the coastal waters of California
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
252. flbeachgirl
3:27 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
It's pouring on Longboat Key again this morning. I practically needed a HumVee to get off the island after work yesterday, so if this keeps up it should be equally as fun (not!) this afternoon.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
251. LemieT
3:25 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
As is typical with most tropical systems, as soon as the NHC pays it any attention, it quickly deteriorates. We all know 93L won't make it (although I wish it would), but it's at least good to see a healthy looking wave so early in a strong El Nino year. Maybe there is hope for at least one good storm in the MDR later in the season.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
250. ncstorm
3:24 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
MDR was shut down by some WU members but "mother nature" had other ideas..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
249. ProgressivePulse
3:20 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
I guess at least I am surprised to see an invest in the MDR. Something to do for a bit anyway. It is my belief that if anything were to survive long enough and make it North of the Caribbean, it's chances of becoming something to look at increase markedly.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
248. BayFog
3:13 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
DURING THE WEEKEND...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE MUGGY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING HURRICANE DELORES IS
PROGGED TO GET DRAWN INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HOW
MUCH EFFECT THIS HAS ON OUR AREA DEPENDS ON HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST
THIS MOISTURE TRAVELS. THE GFS BRINGS THE MOISTURE INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR
DISTRICT...PERHAPS ONLY CLIPPING MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES
WITH RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF TAKES IT FARTHER
NORTH AND EARLIER WITH RAIN POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE DISTRICT
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

This will be another test for the ECMWF to see if it's able to discern an unusual event against the other models as it did with Sandy. If it verifies, no need to look at the other models.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
247. tiggerhurricanes2001
3:04 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Anyone have link to ASCAT data???
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
246. Patrap
3:03 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
This post is brought to you by a paid member.

No advertising or Humor is intended.




SYNOPSIS 2015071700

93L .. P07L (NHC: 10% 2-day / 20% 5-day)
11N, 35W
925 hPa

Interestingly, 700 hPa had the best depiction of v700 in the Hovmoller diagram (especially for ECMWF), but the best depiction of a circulation was down at 925 hPa.


ECMWF: Just a trough with unorganized OW up at 700 hPa. Down at 925 hPa, P07L is the easternmost of at least three tiny OW maxima in the analysis. By 12 hours, P07L has grown a little, has a CL-trough intersection, and a circulation. However, as much larger P06L moves in from the east, 93L/P07L quickly dissipates.

GFS: With a faster phase speed than in ECMWF, 93L is able to outpace the approaching P06L. Tracks to the WNW. Pouch TPW decreases after 36 hours, and deep vertical shear increases after 72 hours as 93L approaches the Caribbean. Dissipates south of Puerto Rico after 108 hours.

UKMET:

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -5.6 0.0 v700 36h
GFS -8.0 1.2 v700 108h
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
245. islander101010
2:57 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
last sunday i looked at the forecast for the british open of golf i remember it saying fair weather windy fri and sat. no mention of foul weather. well the weather has been nasty. this morning thunder and lightning postponed it and now they are saying it could be very windy this afternoon. unpredictability why this tournament is the best of all of them
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
244. LargoFl
2:55 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
955 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...

.UPDATE... PARTS OF THE COASTAL AREA FROM PINELLAS COUNTY NORTH
RECEIVED 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND MORE IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED VALID UNTIL 8PM THIS
EVENING. A STATIONARY FRONT APPEARS TO BE DRAPED OVER THE GULF SOUTH
OF THE PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA WITH CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTION ALONG IT. OVER N FL AND S GA WINDS ARE MOSTLY FROM THE
NORTH WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING INDICATES PW OVER 2 INCHES WITH WESTERLY FLOW TO
500 MB AND NORTHERLY ABOVE. NEIGHBORING SOUNDING AT TAE NORTH OF THE
FRONT HAS A LOWER PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE REST OF TODAY AND SLOWLY
PROPAGATING INLAND WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES. THE
FORECAST PACKAGE WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ONGOING SITUATION.
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.


&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
242. sanflee76
2:27 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Quoting 239. tampabaymatt:



St. Pete Beach. More rain coming in.

You guys are getting pounded on the west coast! Looks like a similar pattern today so again not expecting much here in E CFL.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
241. Thrawst
2:23 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Nice little wave for Mid-July. Hopefully we can get a decent cape verde season going. Always fun to track, especially if they are fishies.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
240. hurricanes2018
2:22 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
239. tampabaymatt
2:21 PM GMT on July 17, 2015


St. Pete Beach. More rain coming in.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
238. hurricanes2018
2:18 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
237. tampabaymatt
2:18 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
What St. Petersburg looks like this morning:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
236. hurricanes2018
2:15 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
invest 93L is weaking right now notting much to watch here right now!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
235. ILwthrfan
2:02 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Quoting 222. SouthTampa:

I do wonder why this happens. It seems that this phenomenon is not unique.
Atmosphere is typically most unstable over oceans during the diurnal maximum, which is opposite for land based convection that reaches it's optimal energy availability during diurnal minimum or "peak heating of the day". 

LINK http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~swsyangg/diurnal.html
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
234. etxwx
1:58 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Perhaps this is applicable to weather warning sirens...
Scientists Investigate The Power and Meaning of the Human Scream
Excerpt: “In terms of potential applications, our findings could be used to improve the way we design alarm sounds. The same way a bad smell is added to natural gas to make it easily detectable, adding roughness to alarm sounds may improve and accelerate their processing.”
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
233. JrWeathermanFL
1:44 PM GMT on July 17, 2015




Well starting tomorrow I'll be gone to the mountains for 2 weeks so I better look at all the imagery I can
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
232. islander101010
1:23 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
93l=early august in Miami
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
231. weathermanwannabe
1:05 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Looking at the TWO below, and the long dry road (ahead), NHC is right on the money with relatively low chances of tropical development. There are 4 major impediments to tropical development ahead for 93L; a) not enough moisture along with it to "carry out" of the ITCZ (this is a stand alone wave will little support); b) a drier environment ahead; c) higher shear to the West; and d) marginal SSTs as it gains latitude (the recent SAL retreat will still require several more weeks of additional SST heating further North in the Atlantic as we head into mid-August).

I would not hold my breath on development of 93L but an impressive mid-July effort.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
230. wunderweatherman123
1:03 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
good sign to see healthy waves. don't expect anything out of the MDR until at least August 10th given a) strong el nino b) cold amo pattern and c) once again for the 4th straight season extremely low vertical instability.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
229. barbamz
1:02 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Dozens flee homes as wildfires rage in Greece, PM urges calm
ATHENS | By Yannis Behrakis, Fri Jul 17, 2015 1:45pm BST, Reuters
Dozens of Athens residents fled their homes on Friday as wildfires fanned by strong winds and high temperatures burned through woodland around the Greek capital, sending clouds of smoke billowing over the city. ...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
228. LargoFl
1:00 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
843 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...FLOOD WATCH FOR COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PINELLAS TO LEVY COUNTIES...

.HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE EXPECTED TODAY.

FLZ050-139-142-148-149-180000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.A.0002.150717T1243Z-150718T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PINELLAS-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-
COASTAL PASCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. PETERSBURG...CLEARWATER...LARGO...
CEDAR KEY...YANKEETOWN...CRYSTAL RIVER...HOMOSASSA...
HERNANDO BEACH...BAYPORT...PORT RICHEY...HUDSON
843 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF FL AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN FL...COASTAL CITRUS...
COASTAL HERNANDO...COASTAL LEVY AND COASTAL PASCO. IN WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...PINELLAS.

* UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING

* .HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE EXPECTED
TODAY. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST HAVE RECEIVED FROM 6 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SOME AREAS ALONG THE COAST
MAY RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
227. FrostyNaples
12:59 PM GMT on July 17, 2015


Underdog for sure.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
226. ricderr
12:55 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions could be
marginally conducive for some slow development of this disturbance
through the weekend before becoming less conducive early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 perce
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
225. ricderr
12:54 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
224. ricderr
12:53 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
223. ricderr
12:53 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
222. SouthTampa
12:51 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Quoting 214. tampabaymatt:



You're right. All of the storms are dissipating the second they get over land. I don't understand why that's happening, but a similar thing happened yesterday and the day before, which limits the high rainfall totals to areas on the coast.
I do wonder why this happens. It seems that this phenomenon is not unique.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
221. ricderr
12:50 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
found this map last year.............

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
220. ricderr
12:47 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
ok folks.....we have an invest and this blog is dead..........let's get to moving and see some activity

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
219. weathermanwannabe
12:23 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
218. weathermanwannabe
12:20 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Here is WV loop as related to 93L; again, surprised at how much moisture is out there along with the wave this time of the year. However, I have been noting recently that notwithstanding the prognosis for a low number year due to El Nino, that the African wave train will be very healthy this year due to plenty of rain in the Sahel:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
217. tampabaymatt
12:13 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
216. weathermanwannabe
12:13 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Further East, the E-Pac appears to be priming again and a nice looking wave out in the Eastern Atlantic (now designated as 93L) . I am actually surprised at how "high" the axis of this wave is. We don't always see African Easterly waves moving above 10N this early in the year. Also noting that shear is relatively low where the axis is now but the wave is headed towards higher shear over the next two days. but I will say this; amazing how much the wave has helped to clear out the SAL. I would be more worried about this wave if this was late August:






Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
215. SFLWeatherman
12:12 PM GMT on July 17, 2015

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
214. tampabaymatt
12:10 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Quoting 210. intampa:

in the meantime in riverview,on the east side of the bay, the sun is out. when you look at the radar the storms arent making far over land. a little shower here about 6 am but seems like over here we are still going to get just drizzle and more mold and mushrooms.


You're right. All of the storms are dissipating the second they get over land. I don't understand why that's happening, but a similar thing happened yesterday and the day before, which limits the high rainfall totals to areas on the coast.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
213. hurricanes2018
12:09 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
wow invest 93L IS HERE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
212. weathermanwannabe
12:05 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
Good Morning Folks. While Nangka has been downgraded to what essentially amounts now to a tropical depression, rain is still falling on Japan and the parallel path of the storm/remnants along the west coast of Japan will amount to more rain and flooding. Per the latest blog from Mr. Henson, two deaths occurred as of yesterday, will check later from Japanese news sources as to any updates on the situation and flooding issues. As you can see from the latest images below, the storm has dried out considerably which is good news; hopefully this trend will continue. Will note that the core of the storm appears to remain right on the Western coast of Japan this morning as opposed the further West over the open water as depicted in the track plot.  Once a storm has significant interaction with land (and the mountains of Japan in this case), the projected post-interaction track is more difficult to ascertain; some  storms are able to recover and some are not:




Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
211. GeoffreyWPB
12:04 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
93L...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
210. intampa
11:47 AM GMT on July 17, 2015
Quoting 195. LargoFl:


in the meantime in riverview,on the east side of the bay, the sun is out. when you look at the radar the storms arent making far over land. a little shower here about 6 am but seems like over here we are still going to get just drizzle and more mold and mushrooms.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
209. GeoffreyWPB
11:45 AM GMT on July 17, 2015
From the Miami NWS Disco...

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NORTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH THE
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS
RESULTING IN A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. MOISTURE IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEAN FOR MID
JULY...WITH PW IN THE 1.75-2.00 RANGE. BROAD SCALE CONVERGENCE
WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY ALONG WITH MESOSCALE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...AND WITH HEALTHY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE,
AM EXPECTING THE TRANQUIL MORNING TO TURN TO A STORMY AFTERNOON
FOR MANY LOCALES. A FEW TSTORMS COULD EVEN DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING.

HIGH RES MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH
THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WITH THE HIGHER COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN
THE FLOW PATTERN.

HRRR SHOWS ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AND INTO THE INTERIOR WITH IMPACTS BEING ISOLATED
STREET FLOODING IN TYPICAL (ALTHOUGH NOT THIS YEAR) SOUTH FL
RAINY SEASON STYLE. GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
208. GeoffreyWPB
11:42 AM GMT on July 17, 2015
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions could be
marginally conducive for some slow development of this disturbance
through the weekend before becoming less conducive early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
207. tampabaymatt
11:37 AM GMT on July 17, 2015
Quoting 200. Jedkins01:



Some areas have had 2-4 inches in my county in just a couple hours!

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
520 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

FLC103-171045-
/O.CON.KTBW.FA.Y.0065.000000T0000Z-150717T1045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PINELLAS FL-
520 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
645 AM EDT FOR SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY...

AT 516 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE HEAVY RAIN DUE
TO THUNDERSTORMS FALLING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. DOPPLER RADAR
ESTIMATES THAT A SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BETWEEN INDIAN ROCKS BEACH AND
DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG...
AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 630 AM EDT.

REPORTS OF LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM AROUND
THE SAINT PETERSBURG VICINITY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CLEARWATER...LARGO...PINELLAS PARK...SEMINOLE...SAINT PETERSBURG...
DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG...ST. PETERSBURG...ST. PETE BEACH...BAY
PINES...SOUTH HIGHPOINT...RIDGECREST...WEST AND EAST LEALMAN...HARBOR
BLUFFS...FEATHER SOUND...GANDY...GULFPORT...TREASURE ISLAND...KENNETH
CITY...SOUTH PASADENA AND MADEIRA BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 2798 8282 2796 8272 2794 8272 2784 8259
2784 8262 2782 8260 2773 8263 2772 8270
2773 8269 2775 8272 2774 8274 2775 8277
2783 8276 2779 8279 2783 8280 2782 8283
2784 8283


I just checked the gauge, I can't get the exact amount, but we've had a about 2.80 so far here, and about 1.5 of it fell in only 20-30 minutes. We've definitely made up for getting missed by everything yesterday. I think rainfall estimates are even a bit low today as well, radar estimate says I've had between 1 and 2 but I'm nearly at 3 inches.

Hopefully these cells will start making better penetration inland too so areas from Tampa east get in on the action as well. Some of these cells have a surprising amount of lightning for this time of pattern, lightning was insane earlier from that cell that brought flooding around here.


The storms that are progressing towards Hillsborough look to be weakening, but maybe I'm wrong on that. I haven't received anything yet today. 0.43" on Wednesday and 0.55" yesterday, so I'm waiting for my turn to get pummeled with a few inches. Maybe it's still to come today.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
206. BahaHurican
11:26 AM GMT on July 17, 2015
Quoting 204. ncstorm:

Good Morning..








With forecast models looking like that, not so much ...
:-/
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 256 - 206

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

Top of Page

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather