Hurricane Dolores Hits Category 4 Strength

By: Bob Henson , 7:37 PM GMT on July 15, 2015

A pulse of rapid intensification late Tuesday and early Wednesday pushed Hurricane Dolores to borderline Category 4 intensity in the Northeast Pacific. Dolores’s peak winds surged from 85 mph at 3:00 pm EDT Tuesday to 130 mph at 3:00 am Wednesday, which translates to a leap from Category 1 to Category 4 status in just 12 hours. The rapid intensification leveled off this morning, with Dolores’s peak winds at 9:00 am EDT Wednesday holding at 130 mph. Dolores is now heading west-northwest at 6 mph on a track somewhat south of earlier predictions, which will keep the hurricane over warmer water for a longer period. Dolores has a well-defined eye surrounded by strong thunderstorms, although the coldest cloud tops around the eye have warmed somewhat over the last few hours. Dolores is currently over 29°C (84°F) water, and vertical wind shear is quite low (5 – 10 knots). Some additional strengthening is thus possible later today into Thursday, although Dolores may not reach Category 5 strength unless another rapid intensification cycle gets under way; such cycles remain difficult to predict. By Friday morning, the center of Dolores should be moving over SSTs cooler than 26°C, with a gradual weakening expected thereafter.


Figure 1. An image of Hurricane Dolores collected by the GOES-East satellite at 1445 GMT (10:45 am EDT) on Wednesday, July 15. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.


Figure 2. Infrared image of Hurricane Dolores from GOES-East, collected at 1800 GMT (2:00 pm EDT) on Wednesday, July 15. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.


Earliest trio of Category 4s on record for Northeast Pacific
Of the season’s first four named storms in the Northeast Pacific, only Carlos has fallen short of Category 4 strength. Dolores is the earliest occurrence of the season’s third Cat 4 system in this basin, beating out Hurricane Frank, which became a Cat 4 on July 17, 1992. Northeast Pacific records go back to 1949. (Thanks to Brian McNoldy, University of Miami/RSMAS, for this factoid). It’s also the first time that three of the first four named systems in the Northeast Pacific have all reached Category 4 intensity. Dolores’s record comes no major surprise, given the persistently favorable wind shear and very high sea-surface temperatures induced by a strong and still-intensifying El Niño event. As noted by Michael Ventrice (WSI), a very strong pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation has influenced the eastern tropical Pacific for the last few weeks, enhancing the upward motion that fuels hurricane development. This MJO event is now subsiding, but the presence of a strong El Niño continues to favor above-average activity in the Northeast Pacific.

Especially noteworthy with this El Niño is the northward extent of the unusually warm water off Baja California and the U.S. Pacific states, meeting up with the “blob” of warm water off the Canadian west coast that’s persisted for months (Figure 3). Even with these impressive anomalies, SSTs are still far too cool to support tropical development immediately off the California coast. However, the zone of SSTs greater than 26°C, which is considered the threshold for maintaining a tropical cyclone, now extends several hundred miles further north than usual. This lays the groundwork for any hurricane recurving toward the southwest U.S. to maintain its strength longer than usual, all else being equal. Of course, the particulars of any given storm (its strength, structure, upper-level support, etc.) will determine how much of an impact might result. Over the next few weeks, residents of southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico will need to keep tabs on any hurricanes whose track would take remnants in their direction, as the risk for heavy rain, flash flooding, and even tropical-storm force winds could be elevated by the presence of such warm SSTs upstream.



Figure 3. Sea-surface temperatures (top) and anomalies (bottom) over the northeast Pacific Ocean, averaged for the week ending on Monday, July 13. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.


A weakening Typhoon Nangka approaches Japan
Dry air has taken its toll on Typhoon Nangka as it continues moving north-northwest at about 15 mph toward Japan. As of 1500 GMT (11:00 am EDT) on Wednesday, Nangka was located about 430 miles south-southwest of Iwakuni, Japan, with sustained winds now down to around 90 mph. Although wind shear remains low along Nangka’s immediate path (10 knots or less) and SSTs are above 26°C (79°F), the typhoon has been ingesting dry air from the west, eroding the convection on the left side of the eye over the last few hours. A strong ridge to the northeast of Nangka should keep the hurricane on a north-northwest bearing until landfall on Saturday local time near the islands of Shikoku and western Honshu. This track would put some of Japan’s biggest cities on the more dangerous eastern side of Nangka, so the weakening trend is good news indeed. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Nangka to be a Category 1 storm at landfall. As noted by The Weather Channel’s Jon Erdman, heavy rains, high winds, and some power outages can be expected in the cities of Kyoto, Kobe, and Osaka, as Nangka comes ashore and encounters Japan’s mountainous islands. Further to the north, Tokyo may experience tropical-storm-level impacts. The north-northwestward path of the storm is nearly perpendicular to the coastline, which would maximize any coastal flooding from Nangka (a major storm surge is not expected, though).

Halola still on course for Japan
With top sustained winds of 85 mph, Typhoon Halola continues its steady trek west-northwest trek through the Northwest Pacific at about 17 mph. As of 11:00 am EDT Wednesday, Halola was located about 175 miles southeast of Wake Island. It now appears Halola will remain weak enough and far enough south of Wake Island to avoid major impacts there. Wind shear has kept Halola from strengthening as much as expected, but the shear should relax in a couple of days, which will give Halola a chance to intensify atop very warm SSTs. Halola could approach Japan next week, although the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest the typhoon will recurve before that point.

Elsewhere in the Pacific and Atlantic
The leisurely demise of Tropical Storm Enrique continues in the remote Northeast Pacific, about 1500 miles west of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Enrique’s top winds are 45 mph, and slow weakening is expected, with dissipation in the next couple of days.

There are no systems of interest in the Atlantic basin, and prospects are minimal for any tropical development there for at least the next several days.

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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238. cRRKampen
7:51 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Quoting 224. JrWeathermanFL:



And is this Claudette's remnants hitting the UK..? I'd bet not cause Claudette was in rough shape when she became post tropical, but im not 100% sure....



Claudette ain't that fast. Or, the Atlantic is big. Or, the circulation is summerly, Arctic Amplificated perhaps, sluggish.
Some of her tropical air may entrain into the warm sector of a disturbance that will finally reach Britain by Monday (GFS12z Oper. If I can detect the thing at all.)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
237. Gearsts
7:19 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago
30-day-avg shear in the Caribbean (6/16-7/15) is 26 m/s in 2015. This is 6 m/s higher than any other year since 1979
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
236. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
7:11 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
235. wxgeek723
7:10 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Quoting 230. Patrap:

4 Marines are among the dead in the incident.

Gone to rest,

Semper Fi'


4 Marines reportedly dead in shooting attack at Tennessee Navy facility





What the hell is wrong with people? Why does this keep happening?!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
234. Jedkins01
7:04 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Quoting 225. HurrMichaelOrl:

It is the height of the rainy season, and we are getting a shower. 0.05"-0.1" at most but I am thankful for that, it has been so dry here.


Never seen a pattern with a strong onshore flow like this with trough of low pressure overhead and deep tropical moisture producing numerous rounds of heavy showers all of which weaken just before reaching this area. Further inland over by your area, it makes since for them to weaken due to the rain cooled air, but I don't recall seeing this happen here before. Maybe if we already had 2-3 inches or more like areas further up the coast after several rounds, but not when we haven't had much.

I'm not sure what's going on that caused all these cells to fall apart before moving into Pinellas. Yesterday and the day before we had heavy thunderstorms when the coverage was less and the atmosphere less favorable, now we have multiple rounds of heavy convection approach us, and none of which make it here. Only on and off light to moderate rain all day.

Some areas north of me on the coast had serious rainfall totals, the radar is underestimating the rainfall rates too, as Hernando County airport has recorded over 3 inches of rain and it's in an area of 1 inch estimates, there is a rain gauge in southeast Pasco that's had over 5 inches in the 2 inch estimate color.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
233. HurrMichaelOrl
7:03 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Quoting 227. Bucsboltsfan:

Most of the Tampa Bay area have received .5-1" so far. Go north into Pasco, Hernando and there are pockets of 2-3" totals. Pretty dreary out there today.


This lack of sunlight is a welcome change to the scorching afternoons that have been the norm this summer so far, even more than usual. It is relatively cool out at the moment, and it almost feels refreshing.

My heart goes out to the victim's families involved in yet another shooting. Just horrible.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
232. LargoFl
6:56 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
243 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015

FLZ047-054-058-059-162015-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-OKEECHOBEE FL-ST. LUCIE FL-
INDIAN RIVER FL-
243 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE...
SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES UNTIL 415
PM EDT...

AT 240 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING DEVELOPING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A COLLISION WITH
TWO LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE DEVELOPING
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PALM
BAY...MELBOURNE...SEBASTIAN...VERO BEACH...FORT DRUM AND TREASURE
ISLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL
BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH FUTURE
DEVELOPING STORMS. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A
THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. OPEN
SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS... ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO
PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING.

STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
231. weathermanwannabe
6:54 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
We will stay on topic Pat; I suspect that most of us here enjoy this blog and weather watching over watching what people do to each other..............I bypass the news most nights in favor of TWC, History-Discovery Channel and PBS............................Condolences to the lost. Spent last night watching the PBS show on the Pluto mission and passed on politics and the news; hold my breath everyday on the way home from work waiting for my Wife to tell me what "bad" thing happened in the US or world during the day.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
230. Patrap
6:49 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
4 Marines are among the dead in the incident.

Gone to rest,

Semper Fi'


4 Marines reportedly dead in shooting attack at Tennessee Navy facility



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
229. LargoFl
6:45 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Quoting 228. whitewabit:



Sadly they are saying there are 4 dead including the shooter with 3 injured ..
gee thanks for the update!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
228. whitewabit
6:42 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Quoting 222. LargoFl:

news: someone in Chattanooga Tenn shot up an naval center there..one officer down, many shots fired.


Sadly they are saying there are 4 dead including the shooter with 3 injured ..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
226. pablosyn
6:35 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Pre Felicia:



ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dolores, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Cabo San
Lucas, Mexico, and on Tropical Storm Enrique, located well west of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about 600 miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Some slow development is possible early next week while this system
moves west-northwestward or northwestward at about 5 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Berg
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
225. HurrMichaelOrl
6:28 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
It is the height of the rainy season, and we are getting a shower. 0.05"-0.1" at most but I am thankful for that, it has been so dry here.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
224. JrWeathermanFL
6:16 PM GMT on July 16, 2015


And is this Claudette's remnants hitting the UK..? I'd bet not cause Claudette was in rough shape when she became post tropical, but im not 100% sure....

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
223. weathermanwannabe
6:15 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
WDPN33 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 53//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM SOUTHEAST
OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED 28 NM EYE. A 161226Z AMSU-B IMAGE
REVEALS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE LLCC AND SOME LOSS OF CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE AND THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 65 KNOTS DUE TO DVORAK ESTIMATES
AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE JAPANESE COASTLINE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE 10 KNOTS OF NORTHWESTERLY VWS IS PARTIALLY OFFSET
BY MODERATE DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING
THE STR AXIS TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
STR AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, DECAYING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
BY TAU 24, TY 11W WILL RE-EMERGE IN THE SEA OF JAPAN AND CONTINUE TO
DECAY DUE TO COOL SSTS AND HIGHER VWS. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST TURNING TO EASTWARD BY TAU 48, AS TY NANGKA ROUNDS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STR. FURTHER DEGRADATION OF THE SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR AS TY 11W TRACKS THROUGH THE TSUGARU STRAITS. ACCELERATING TO
THE EAST, TY NANGKA WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 DUE TO HIGH
VWS AND UNFAVORABLE OHC. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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222. LargoFl
6:14 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
news: someone in Chattanooga Tenn shot up an naval center there..one officer down, many shots fired.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
221. weathermanwannabe
6:13 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Here is the latest look for Nangka; the core of the current rains remain over the Southern end of Japan:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
220. ProgressivePulse
5:43 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Life in the central atlantic, is the world coming to an end or something?

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
219. Astrometeor
5:27 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Quoting 214. JrWeathermanFL:

But then all of Ela's ACE would count for the CPAC right? Since even though it was numbered in the EPAC, it was not given an EPAC name.


I would think you would split it..any ACE that occurs in the EPAC counts towards the EPAC, and any that occurs in the CPAC counts for the CPAC.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
218. wxgeek723
5:26 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Quoting 214. JrWeathermanFL:

But then all of Ela's ACE would count for the CPAC right? Since even though it was numbered in the EPAC, it was not given an EPAC name.


It's split. Whatever ACE was generated while Ela was in the East Pacific would go to the East Pacific ACE total (in this case zero) and the ACE generated when the storm was in the Central Pacific goes toward the Central Pacific ACE total. This goes for any storm that crosses basins, even if they were given a name from the East Pacific list.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
217. Patrap
5:25 PM GMT on July 16, 2015


SYNOPSIS 2015071500

P06L
9N, 0E/W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Weak wave-pouch. The only period P06L is a consistent pouch is not until 72-96, once P06L has moved over the Atlantic; otherwise it is just a wave with scattered tiny OW maxima. Pouch moisture increases and shear decreases over the period, but only modestly. P06L moves off the western edge of my working map after 108 hours.

GFS: Easier to track than in ECMWF, although the track is still erratic while over western Africa, which is common. Slower than in ECMWF. Moisture modestly rises for a few days while P06L comes off of Africa, then it decreases past 30W. Interestingly, while deep shear remains low, pouch shear increase a little. Becomes just a SW-NE oriented trough after 84 hours, and I stop tracking after 108 hours because it dissipates.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
216. JrWeathermanFL
5:20 PM GMT on July 16, 2015


That last wave's just kinda moistening everything up.

I think the wave in front could've used some of that ahead of it...



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
215. stoormfury
5:18 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
RapidScat showing a weaK low pressure near 10N 35W in an association with a well defined tropical wave.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
214. JrWeathermanFL
5:16 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
But then all of Ela's ACE would count for the CPAC right? Since even though it was numbered in the EPAC, it was not given an EPAC name.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
213. GeoffreyWPB
5:13 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Storms are blowing up fast....

... Significant weather advisory for frequent to excessive lightning
and 45 to 55 mph winds for northeastern Broward and southeastern Palm
Beach counties until 145 PM EDT...

* at 100 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
strong thunderstorm over Boca Raton... moving north at 10 mph.

* The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and
gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph. Lightning is the number one weather
related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no
protection. These winds can down small tree limbs and branches...
and blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe
building until the storm passes.

* Locations impacted include...
Boca Raton... Deerfield Beach... Boynton Beach... Delray Beach...
Highland Beach... Ocean Ridge... Lantana... Hillsboro Beach... Boca del
Mar... Hypoluxo... South Palm Beach... Gulf Stream... Briny Breezes...
Manalapan and fau south Campus.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
212. whitewabit
5:13 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
duplicate post
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
211. ricderr
5:12 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
here taz...this might help you.......

Interestingly, Ela began as Tropical Depression Four-E – a designation pertaining to the Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone basin – because the National Hurricane Center determined that it became a tropical cyclone just east of the 140-degree West longitude benchmark. By the time NHC issued its first advisory, though, the depression had already drifted over that invisible line into the Central Pacific basin, which is where it became a tropical storm and therefore took its name from the Central Pacific naming list and not the Eastern Pacific list. According to hurricane specialist Michael Lowry, this has happened three other times since 1949, including Lala in 1984, Iniki in 1992 and Lana in 2009.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
210. ricderr
5:10 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
agine Ela dos not cont has a E PAC name storm TD 4E may cont for the E PAC but it did not get named in tell the C PAC so there for Ela dos not cont has a E PAC name storm


here the cont for july


C PAC 3 name storms

E PAC 2 name storm if we get 2 more for july we will have 4 name storms for the E PAC


so i will keep saying where is 7 name storms comeing from ?? the E PAC and C PAC has there own name storms and there own cont for the moth of july



i guess that's a fight you will have to take up with the NHC....i'm going to go with their count however
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
209. Patrap
5:07 PM GMT on July 16, 2015


: )

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
208. whitewabit
5:04 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Quoting 207. LemieT:


Felt it at home. Living in St. Michael Barbados.


there have been three earthquakes a 5.3, 6.4, and 5.2
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
207. LemieT
4:59 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Quoting 185. WaterWitch11:

M 6.4 - 116km NE of Bathsheba, Barbados
Time
2015-07-16 15:16:31 UTC
Location
13.829°N 58.641°W
Depth
5.6 km

Felt it at home. Living in St. Michael Barbados.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
206. Camerooski
4:58 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Here in Fort Lauderdale, we are going through a very severe thunderstorm winds gusting to TS force… Flooding coming all the way up to my door, and the lightning is crazy! FINALLY SOME ACTION here in SE Florida.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
205. Tazmanian
4:52 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Quoting 202. ricderr:

Eastern North Pacific
Andres 01E (125, ACE= 19.13, May)
Blanca 02E (120, ACE= 20.7475, June)
Carlos 03E (80, ACE= 9.16, June)
Ela 04E (35, ACE= 0.3675, July)
Dolores 05E (*, ACE= 2.7825*, July)
Enrique 06E (*, ACE= *, July)


agine Ela dos not cont has a E PAC name storm TD 4E may cont for the E PAC but it did not get named in tell the C PAC so there for Ela dos not cont has a E PAC name storm


here the cont for july


C PAC 3 name storms

E PAC 2 name storm if we get 2 more for july we will have 4 name storms for the E PAC


so i will keep saying where is 7 name storms comeing from ?? the E PAC and C PAC has there own name storms and there own cont for the moth of july
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
204. pablosyn
4:49 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Quoting 200. Tazmanian:




7? where did 7? come from we olny had TD 4E wish dos not cont has a E PAC name storm we had 2 TS wish dos not count has a E PAC storm has they where in the C PAC so the olny two real storms we had this july in the E PAC are DOLORES and ENRIQUE and if we get 2 more be for the end of july that would make 4 name storms for july not 7 for the E PAC

Ekeka and Hali, and look...a record.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
203. GeoffreyWPB
4:45 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
... Significant weather advisory for frequent to excessive lightning
for northeastern Broward and southeastern Palm Beach counties until
115 PM EDT...

* at 1237 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
strong thunderstorm over Sea Ranch Lakes... or over
Lauderdale-by-the-Sea... moving north at 15 mph.

* The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning. Gusty
winds up 40 mph are also possible. Lightning is the number one
weather related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer
no protection. Seek shelter in a safe building until the storm
passes.

* Locations impacted include...
Fort Lauderdale... Pompano Beach... Boca Raton... Deerfield Beach...
Boynton Beach... Delray Beach... Tamarac... Lighthouse Point...
Lauderdale-by-the-Sea... Highland Beach... Lauderhill... Coconut
Creek... Oakland Park... Lauderdale Lakes... Wilton Manors... Hillsboro
Beach... Sea Ranch Lakes... Lazy Lake... Golden heights and Twin
Lakes.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
202. ricderr
4:45 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Eastern North Pacific
Andres 01E (125, ACE= 19.13, May)
Blanca 02E (120, ACE= 20.7475, June)
Carlos 03E (80, ACE= 9.16, June)
Ela 04E (35, ACE= 0.3675, July)
Dolores 05E (*, ACE= 2.7825*, July)
Enrique 06E (*, ACE= *, July)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
201. stormpetrol
4:40 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
200. Tazmanian
4:23 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Quoting 199. pablosyn:

Maybe Felicia and Guillermo. If more 2 storm forms before July ends, will break the 1985's record of 7 named storms formed in July.





7? where did 7? come from we olny had TD 4E wish dos not cont has a E PAC name storm we had 2 TS wish dos not count has a E PAC storm has they where in the C PAC so the olny two real storms we had this july in the E PAC are DOLORES and ENRIQUE and if we get 2 more be for the end of july that would make 4 name storms for july not 7 for the E PAC
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
199. pablosyn
4:18 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Maybe Felicia and Guillermo. If more 2 storm forms before July ends, will break the 1985's record of 7 named storms formed in July.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
198. GeoffreyWPB
4:18 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1019 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015

.UPDATE...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING 10-20% ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W
APPROACHING THE AREA,SEVERAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
AREA INCLUDING INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE AND SEA BREEZES WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MAIN DEVELOPMENT STARTING AROUND NOON AND THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

12Z SNDG (MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON CONDITIONS) CONVECTIVE INDICES
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH H50 TEMPS ABOUT NORMAL AND MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, IF SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 90S,
THE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH. HAIL IS LESS LIKELY GIVEN MID LEVELS HAVE WARMED SOME AND
LAPSE RATES BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED GIVEN APPROACHING UPR LVL
S/W. AGAIN, IT WILL ALL DEPEND HOW MUCH WE WARM UP. SO AMENDED HWO
AND GRIDS TO TRIM BACK A BIT THE THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORMS BUT STILL LEFT MENTION OF THEM IN THERE.

WATERSPOUTS POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG PERSISTING
BOUNDARY FROM MOUTH OF BISCAYNE BAY NE TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
BROWARD. BUT THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS DISRUPTING AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
197. AdamReith
4:15 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Quoting 151. weathermanwannabe:

Northern Hemisphere temperature extremes, both hot and cold, due to jet stream issues and prolonged blocking patterns is one of the consistently modeled "foot prints" expected during global warming periods. We will continue to see these type of heat events and record cold events (along with related precipitation issues) globally in the coming decades.
Dr. Jennifer Francis gives the short version:

Understanding the Jet Stream Changes

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
196. Gearsts
4:11 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
The North Pac (NW + NE) has already generated more ACE this year (254) than 2012 thru 2014 in the Atlantic (235).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
195. Patrap
4:10 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
194. ricderr
4:08 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Looks like a typical El Nino, with almost all of the Sierra above average, with only the smaller mountains like the Warners, Trinity Alps, Marbles etc. in the very northern part of the State normal.

I'll take it.



i think the concern will be the warmer than average temps....could limit snowpack
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
193. Patrap
4:05 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
From the 805 am EDT NHC Disco


DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA REACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 23N96W TO 20N96W. ALOFT...AN
ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND EXTENDS INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED CONVECTION S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-96W. A MID TO UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER E TEXAS WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE ACROSS
THE GULF TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS
OVER THE NW GULF SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN.
SURFACE RIDGING AND LIGHT FLOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
191. weathermanwannabe
4:00 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
In terms of the Florida Blob/Frontal remnant just off the Panhandle, shear is pretty high over this area but there is no upper level low adjacent to it that is either causing the convective flare-up or interfering with potential development. With no model support, it's a coin flip. If the convection persists for the next 24, and it festers there, anything could happen. Or, it could all dissipate and flare out by tonight:

The shear:


The "Look":


Upper Level:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
190. AdamReith
3:57 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Quoting 150. barbamz:

Recent heatwave killed 700 people in France
The Local (France) Published: 16 Jul 2015 10:36 GMT+02:00
The sweltering heatwave that hit France earlier this month was responsible for the deaths of 700 people, the Ministry of Health confirmed on Thursday.
The heatwave that hit France between the 29th of June and the 5th of July left 700 dead, the ministry announced on Thursday.
The figures were taken from the fact that there were seven percent more deaths registered in France during this period than at the same time last year.
Almost 3,600 people were hospitalized during the heatwave, while almost 1,500 people saw their local GP after suffering from the heat, the ministry added. ...


July heatwave caused 447 extra deaths in the UK
London Evening Standard, July 14, 2015
Hundreds more people died as temperatures hit a record high in Britain this month, official figures show.
A total of 9,205 fatalities were registered in the week ending July 3 — including 901 in London — compared with an average of 8,758 for the same period over the previous five years.
The extra 447 deaths across the country came in a week when Britain experienced its hottest July day on record, with temperatures reaching 36.7C (98F). ...


Nothing like the 70,000+ deaths in the 2003 European heat wave, but still bad.

Looks like they were more prepared for it this time--as well they should be from now on.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
189. Gearsts
3:52 PM GMT on July 16, 2015
Quoting 188. hurricanes2018:



here we go!!
Not really
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
188. hurricanes2018
3:50 PM GMT on July 16, 2015


here we go!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather