Category 2 Typhoon Chan-hom Makes Landfall 80 Miles From Shanghai, China

By: Jeff Masters , 4:21 PM GMT on July 11, 2015

Typhoon Chan-hom made landfall in the Chinese island city of Zhoushan, Zhejiang Province, about 80 miles south-southeast of Shanghai, at 4:40 p.m local time Saturday, reported the official Chinese news agency. At landfall, Chan-hom was a Category 2 storm with winds of 100 mph, making it the strongest typhoon to pass within 100 miles of Shanghai in at least the past 35 years. Since Shanghai was on the weak (left) side of the typhoon, the city did not see strong winds. The strongest winds at Shanghai Pudong Airport on Saturday were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 56 mph. The city of Shipyu, located about 150 miles south of Shanghai, reported sustained winds of 74 mph at 2 am Saturday local time. Over a million people were evacuated in advance of Chan-hom, and I expect that considerable storm surge damage will be reported. Chan-hom has made its closest approach to Shanghai, and late on Saturday morning was headed north-northeast at 10 mph towards Korea. With cool waters of 21 - 22°C in front of it and high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots expected, Chan-hom should rapidly weaken, and make landfall on Monday morning local time in North Korea as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds.


Figure 1. People gather to see huge waves as Typhoon Chan-hom comes near Wenling, in east China's Zhejiang province on July 10, 2015. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.


Figure 2. Typhoon Chan-hom as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at approximately midnight EDT Friday, July 10, 2015 (04 UTC Saturday.) At the time, Chan-hom was a Category 2 storm with winds of 100 mph. Image credit: NASA Worldview.

Links
The new Japanese Himawari satellite has some spectacular imagery of Chan-hom (Sector 4 in Band 3=visible, and Sector 6 in Band 13=IR.)
Chan-hom satellite imagery from NOAA/NESDIS.
Weather radar from China.
Chan-hom weather radar loop from Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School.


Figure 3. Surface winds in the tropical Pacific at 11 am EDT Saturday July 11, 2015, revealed the presence of five tropical cyclones, one ex-tropical storm (Ela near Hawaii), and one tropical depression about to form (97E.) Image credit: earth.nullschool.net.

Hyperactive Pacific; Quiet Atlantic
The exceptionally warm surface waters in the tropical Pacific, in combination with the activity of a strong phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), has led to the formation of a remarkable simultaneous five tropical cyclones (tropical cyclones is a catch-all phrase to describe all tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes/typhoons.) On Saturday morning, the most dangerous of these appeared to be Category 2 Typhoon Nangka, which is expected to move northwards and affect Japan by Friday. The other storms besides Chan-hom (none of which are likely to affect any land areas through Wednesday): Tropical Depression 5-E, which formed 265 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico on Saturday morning, and is expected to move the west-northwest, parallel to the coast; Tropical Storm Halola, located in a remote portion of the Pacific about 555 mi Southwest of Johnston Island; and Tropical Depression Two-C, located about 515 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii, and headed northwest, away from Hawaii. Another tropical disturbance (Invest 97E), located about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, was close to tropical depression status, and will likely be a tropical depression on Sunday. 97E will head westwards towards Hawaii, but is not likely to survive the long trek there.

The Atlantic remains quiet, and is dominated by high wind shear and stable dry air. None of our reliable genesis models are showing tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next five days, though an area of low pressure expected to form off the coast of North Carolina on Sunday will bear watching for development as it heads northeastwards out to sea early in the week.

There will be a new post by Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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752. Michelle Schlachta , Community Manager (Admin)
10:32 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 430. LAbonbon:

Mods-I think I hit a flag in error again. Went to plus Largo's post #418, and think I may have hit the flag instead.

Any chance of having the flag button moved away from the plus button (maybe swap it with that other 'eye' button)?
No problem - the flag has been removed from that comment.
751. ricderr
3:39 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
i know that some like to comapre this enso event with '97.......but looking at the eq pacific tao.......i couldn't find a july 97 to comapre with this years july....but i found a september 97 graph....and you can compare where we are now and what we have to get to in september...and i just can't see it happening.....

current TAO





september 1997 TAO



as you can see there is a huge difference in anomalies that we're going to have to climb too

in july '97 close to this date we were at a 1.8c anomaly, 0.3c higher than where we are now....and by september it had climbed 4 points to a 2.2 anomaly

if we could expect the same rise of 4 points we would see a strong reading of 1.8 and if it could hold it then this event would go down as strong......but no way a super el nino

now the driver of this event of course is the current kelvin wave.....and i think comparing this years KW to '97's is important...and it's important to note...that the enso 3.4 region traverses from about 170 degrees eastward to 120 degrees....when we look at this year....we can see that throughout the 3.4 area...the anomaly at all depths is no more than 2.0C above average until about 150 degrees.....when looking at the '97 kelvin wave...throughout the 3.4 area at depths the anomaly was from 3C to over 7C above average throughout the entire 3.4 region...as you can see from the '97 kelvin wave through september it moved east about 15 degrees and surfaced....if we could expect the same this year...that means less than a quarter of the 3.4 region could see anomalies greater than 3 c and the majority of the region would be less than a 2C anomaly





Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
750. Patrap
3:36 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Study: Melting Greenland ice sheet is rapidly slowing the Gulf Stream


The Northern Hemisphere winter of 2014-15 was the warmest on record globally, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But if you look closely at global temperature maps, it becomes clear that one area of the North Atlantic conspicuously bucked the trend, as it has during many years since 1970.

That region was, in fact, the coldest it has been since the dawn of instrument records, at up to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit colder than average. According to a new study, this cold pool may be an indicator of a dramatic slowdown in the Gulf Stream, which transports vast amounts of heat north from the equator to the pole, passing off the East Coast of the U.S. and into the North Atlantic.


If true, this is vindication for those who think global warming is likely to trigger so-called "tipping points" in the climate system, which, once set into motion, cannot be stopped. The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had judged that there is up to a 10% likelihood of a Gulf Stream shutdown before year 2100, though many climate scientists estimate this likelihood is even higher.

"Evidence is mounting that the long-feared circulation decline is already well underway," says co-author Stefan Rahmstorf, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, in a blog post for RealClimate.

The slowdown in this current, the study finds, is unprecedented in hundreds to perhaps as long as 1,000 years, and is most likely related to another tipping point, which is the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The influx of freshwater from the ice sheet is one of the main sources of freshwater inflow into the North Atlantic Ocean.

As it pours into the Atlantic, the freshwater is lighter and colder than heavier, salty water that typically occupies that area. It therefore tends to sit on top of the water column, accumulating over the years and interfering with the formation and sinking of dense, cold and salt-enriched waters. This chokes off the northward flowing Gulf Stream, slowing it down, and affecting ocean circulation downstream as well.

No new ice age, at least not yet...

While it's not anywhere close to the apocalypse that a rapid Gulf Stream shutdown was shown to be in the 2004 blockbuster disaster film The Day After Tomorrow, a rapid slowdown in this current would boost sea level rise rates along the highly populated Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the U.S. It could also bring much cooler conditions than is currently the norm to parts of northern Europe.

The study also calls into question many of the assumptions made by climate modelers in designing state of the art computer models, since the study shows that these models may be underestimating the speed and magnitude of ocean current trends in the North Atlantic. Most models show a progressive weakening of the Gulf Stream as global warming continues, but few have suggested it would be so significant, so soon.

Michael Mann, a coauthor of the study and director of the Earth Systems Science Center at Penn State University, told Mashable in an email:

Once again, we are learning that the climate model projections may be too conservative. In this case, the fact that the Greenland Ice Sheet is losing mass and contributing to freshwater runoff into the North Atlantic decades ahead of schedule may be the reason that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is weakening decades ahead of schedule as well.

The Gulf Stream is one part of a vast global undersea infrastructure known as the thermohaline circulation, also referred to as the "Global Conveyor Belt." This circulation, which extends from pole to pole and throughout every ocean, is powered by density differences in ocean waters in different areas of the world. If you disturb any part of this circulation, the entire thing is liable to have a major hiccup If you disturb any part of this circulation, the entire thing is liable to have a major hiccup, like an escalator with something stuck in its gears.

The study makes a strong case that we have already stuck that wrench in the ocean circulation's gears by melting more polar land ice, although it provides for the possibility that natural variability or other factors are also to blame for the post-1970 slowdown in the AMOC of which the Gulf Stream is a crucial part.

"[This is] Another reminder that uncertainty is not our friend when it comes to human-caused climate change. It appears to be cutting against us, rather than in our favor, once again," Mann said.

more,
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
749. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:33 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
748. weathermanwannabe
3:27 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
741. cRRKampen
11:00 AM EDT on July 13, 2015

I am leaning in the direction of the theories that the cold pool off of Greenland is contributing to a potential pile-up of warmer waters from the Gulf Stream off the US East Coast; may have helped 92L go tropical and with the snowfall issues this past winter in Boston:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
747. Patrap
3:18 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
746. southfla
3:17 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
@cRRKampen, thanks for the reply. Gulf Stream slow down was my suspicion, unfortunately.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
745. ColoradoBob1
3:17 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Smoke near the pole.



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744. ColoradoBob1
3:10 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Tropical peatland carbon losses from oil palm plantations may be underestimated
New study uncovers limitations in past carbon calculations, suggests improved strategies

Summary:
Peatlands — waterlogged, organic soils — have developed over thousands of years as carbon storage systems. In Southeast Asia, peat swamp forests cover about 250,000 square kilometers, a land area about the size of Michigan. Draining tropical peatlands for oil palm plantations may result in nearly twice as much carbon loss as official estimates, according to a new study.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
743. ColoradoBob1
3:03 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 661. NativeSun:

There still may be a blog, but the quality has really changed for the worst. I have a lot of people on ignore,


Right back at ya NS.

Eagles - Get Over It
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
742. Patrap
3:02 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
92L....on a Exodus to nowhere.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
741. cRRKampen
3:00 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Some posts questioning the cool spot south of Greenland. It is a persistent phenomenon of past years (check w/ the NASA/GISS charts).
A wrap-up of possible explanations:
What’s going on in the North Atlantic? and A hypothesis about the cold winter in eastern North America - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015 /03/a-hypothesis-about-the-cold-winter-in-eastern- north-america/#sthash.jgr30VLU.dpuf.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
740. georgevandenberghe
2:51 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 725. StormTrackerScott:



It's a strange ENSO and that cold pool near Greenland could lead to a early end to Summer across the East. Something to watch going forward. lots of unseen variables compared to other strong Nino's.


Not convinced that cold pool is large enough to change the circulation significantly. Course if I'm wrong it won't
be the first time.

Warmth persisting in the western Pacific even as it builds in the Eastern Pacific is a nonclassical El Nino evolution and suggests the possibility of a nonclassical winter response this winter. I've already declared
I expect a classical response so of course again I could be wrong.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
739. NCHurricane2009
2:46 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Atlantic tropics heating up very quickly this morning! Just posted a special update, I think 92L will be upgraded to Claudette later today....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
738. NNYer
2:44 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 710. ricderr:

Any guesses why there is such a strong cold anomaly signal south of Greenland this year ? It doest appear in other El Nino years that i could find in the Nesdis plots.



MELTING ICE


The persistent ridge over the Northeastern Pacific, which corresponds with a persistent trough over Eastern Canada, Northeast US, and the Northwest Atlantic. Been a bit cooler in my neck of the woods, at least up to the last couple days. On average though, cooler than recent normal.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
737. georgevandenberghe
2:41 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Actually drying out some in my DC metro location. Soil moisture is close to optimal rather than soggy.
But there is flash flooding to my southwest (200km) and it looks moist today through wednesday.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
736. tampabaymatt
2:36 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 713. sar2401:

The only thing the ECMWF shows is a 1005 mb low that somehow dropped intact all the way from Colorado to over south Louisiana. I can't imagine how that could produce 15" of rain for Tampa. Assuming any of this was true, there's a more likely low off North Carolina about to enter the Atlantic at the same time. With models 10 days out, things like total precipitation can get disconnected from the other parts of the model and show some weird results. If this was five days out and showed a developing low in the Gulf, then it might get interesting.




My guess is that one run of the Euro picked up on some sort of training event happening, and that’s what led to the 15” bullseye in that particular run of the model. There were some areas that showed 15” inches, and others about 10 miles north of those areas that showed 5” or 6”. As I noted earlier, the GFS is not showing anywhere near those totals for FL, but that doesn’t surprise me. I hope that we can see the next run of the Euro posted on here to see if there is any consistency.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
735. sar2401
2:34 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 690. yonzabam:



Good suggestion. So, just some photographic jiggery pokery, maybe.
If you click on his wedding video at the bottom of the page, you'll hear exactly the same birds singing that were singing in the "cloud" video. It's also the smoothest panning video I've ever seen for having supposedly been done on a cell phone. Maybe just a coincidence though.

EDIT: Looks like our boy Hector is also posting other videos on UFO conspiracy sites. This one is in Taxco, Mexico. Apparently Hector really gets around, although this video is not his best work. I'm sure there are others but this is enough for me to know what that "cloud" really was.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
734. cRRKampen
2:30 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 712. Naga5000:



Would you be okay if someone continuously posted that "tropical storms weren't real" day in or day out?
Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson devote a large portion of this blog to climate change and global warming, getting the facts right is an important issue. Why not question the people who when presented with facts day in and day out, not only by us, but by Dr. Masters and Dr. Hensen, reject those facts in favor of ideological bias? Why is it instead turned around like we are doing something wrong by posting information and correcting misinformation / disinformation?



Exactly...
There is a clear answer to that one, of course. Any newly interested person in the subject doing the google on climate change and whatever could be related, lands first on the vast array of echo chambers of climate revisionism. Then, many do not persevere to reach the actual science (& facts). Fortunately, some do, and they can be seen learning by the nanosecond.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
733. sar2401
2:26 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 721. Naga5000:



I agree. At least send one of the drones out there.
The NHC only has four Coyote drones and they don't have the range to fly from the coast to the developing storm. They have to be air dropped from an equipped C-130. The also don't have the ability to fly back to land and touch down at an airstrip. Once they're launched, the NHC waves goodbye to $22,000. If this was a developing storm threatening the coast, that would be one thing. Wasting a drone on this low isn't likely.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
732. cRRKampen
2:25 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 724. sar2401:

I don't think it's a matter of changing anyone's mind. If these anti-science posts are allowed to stand with no comment because the usual suspects are all on ignore, the hundreds of lurkers and newbies that read and never post may think there's some validity to the crazy stuff at the nutter's links. The whole "ice age in 2030" story that popped up in the last few days is a good example of something needs comment because it, at first glance, seems possible.

This is the reason I take potshots at climate revisionism sometimes (though I usually only give out my other reason for doing that: amusement in a worrying debate about a worrying subject, where part of the participants abuse others - I return that once a while).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
731. GeoffreyWPB
2:24 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
92L...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
730. sar2401
2:17 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 726. NativeSun:

Neither do most of the people on here. 92L should at least have a HH fly into it, just for a training mission if nothing else.
They fly lots of training missions. Flying 350 miles off the coast of North Carolina from Biloxi for what may or may not be a TC uses up more of their limited budget for not much return. The NHC can classify this a TD or TS for whatever short life it may have remaining without the need of aircraft.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
729. rmbjoe1954
2:15 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
It seems the Atlantic disturbance will turn into a storm after all.

We in Port St. Lucie can smell the wildfires out of Loxahatchee Fl this morning which means the winds are from the SW; that means we will get the afternoon T storms after all- hopefully all the way to the coast.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
728. nrtiwlnvragn
2:14 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
A lot of areas on the East Coast to see their warmest temperatures at this time of year:






Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
727. sar2401
2:13 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 722. Naga5000:



That's what I was looking for, thanks!
It's the Tropical Cyclone Plan of the Day (TCPOD, since everything needs an acronym) and you can find it here. You have to be careful about the date and time though, since sometimes it can be late and there's already a new TCPOD issued. Not today though. :-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
726. NativeSun
2:12 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 723. Bucsboltsfan:



The difference is that I don't have the science background to challenge someone who may posts things that on the surface looks compelling. I guess that's why I'll leave it up to you guys.
Neither do most of the people on here. 92L should at least have a HH fly into it, just for a training mission if nothing else.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
725. StormTrackerScott
2:10 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 708. southfla:

Quoting 652. StormTrackerScott:



2015 is much warmer west than 1997 and the warmer anomalies are more spread out as well. I would be concerned if i were you because this event is going to surpass 1997 as there is a rapidly 3rd Kelvin Wave developing beneath 180W and this will be what drives us past 1997 especially across nino 3.4. Remember 1997's heat was more concentrated this years event is massive and getting stronger ever week especially after we just had a record MJO & WWB. All this will do is cause sea surface anomalies to rise in dramatic fashion the next several week.



Any guesses why there is such a strong cold anomaly signal south of Greenland this year ? It doest appear in other El Nino years that i could find in the Nesdis plots.


It's a strange ENSO and that cold pool near Greenland could lead to a early end to Summer across the East. Something to watch going forward. lots of unseen variables compared to other strong Nino's.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
724. sar2401
2:10 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 716. Bucsboltsfan:



I get what you are saying. However, most anti agw are not going to change their minds, no matter what you say to them. I simply ignore them and don't let their trolling bother me.
I don't think it's a matter of changing anyone's mind. If these anti-science posts are allowed to stand with no comment because the usual suspects are all on ignore, the hundreds of lurkers and newbies that read and never post may think there's some validity to the crazy stuff at the nutter's links. The whole "ice age in 2030" story that popped up in the last few days is a good example of something needs comment because it, at first glance, seems possible.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
722. Naga5000
2:06 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 720. sar2401:

Or, more to the point, the NHC is not about to waste the gas on this one -

NOUS42 KNHC 131343
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON 13 JULY 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z JULY 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-049

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.


That's what I was looking for, thanks!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
721. Naga5000
2:06 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 719. washingtonian115:

It would be nice to have some information on what is going on in the storm.The HH proved last year again and again why they're needed.I'm sure Fay and Bertha wouldn't be deemed hurricanes without the information that was received from the planes.


I agree. At least send one of the drones out there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
720. sar2401
2:04 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 714. Naga5000:



Doesn't look like it:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small non-
tropical area of low pressure located about 350 miles east-northeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become better organized
overnight. Environmental conditions could allow for some
additional development today before becoming unfavorable on
Tuesday while the low accelerates northeastward away from the United
States. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Kimberlain
Or, more to the point, the NHC is not about to waste the gas on this one -

NOUS42 KNHC 131343
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON 13 JULY 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z JULY 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-049

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
719. washingtonian115
2:02 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 714. Naga5000:



Doesn't look like it:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small non-
tropical area of low pressure located about 350 miles east-northeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become better organized
overnight. Environmental conditions could allow for some
additional development today before becoming unfavorable on
Tuesday while the low accelerates northeastward away from the United
States. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Kimberlain
It would be nice to have some information on what is going on in the storm.The HH proved last year again and again why they're needed.I'm sure Fay and Bertha wouldn't be deemed hurricanes without the information that was received from the planes.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
718. Naga5000
2:01 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 716. Bucsboltsfan:



I get what you are saying. However, most anti agw are not going to change their minds, no matter what you say to them. I simply ignore them and don't let their trolling bother me.


You say "tomato", I say, "here is a link disputing that absurdity". :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
717. sar2401
2:01 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 705. LargoFl:

yes chances somehow went up to 40%,good thing they believe 92 wont affect the states,not yet anyway gee
It won't ever affect the United States. It's already accelerating northeastward into the Atlantic and has about 20 hours to develop before it hits much colder water and dies. It may even be a TD now by the look of it but, unless it really blows up, I suspect the NHC is going to let this one alone.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
715. islander101010
1:58 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
north atlantic entering a cool phase? sure looks it
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
714. Naga5000
1:58 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 707. washingtonian115:

I think 92L could be classified later today as T.D 2 or Claudette.Looks organized to me but then again I'm no expert :) but then again after what last years hurricanes looked like...Does anyone know if a aircraft investigation has been called?


Doesn't look like it:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small non-
tropical area of low pressure located about 350 miles east-northeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become better organized
overnight. Environmental conditions could allow for some
additional development today before becoming unfavorable on
Tuesday while the low accelerates northeastward away from the United
States. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Kimberlain
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
713. sar2401
1:54 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 659. Bucsboltsfan:



10 days out and we've seen those models be wrong so may times. 15" inches is a lot of rain without a tropical system. Heck, look at yesterday - nothing too extreme happened.
The only thing the ECMWF shows is a 1005 mb low that somehow dropped intact all the way from Colorado to over south Louisiana. I can't imagine how that could produce 15" of rain for Tampa. Assuming any of this was true, there's a more likely low off North Carolina about to enter the Atlantic at the same time. With models 10 days out, things like total precipitation can get disconnected from the other parts of the model and show some weird results. If this was five days out and showed a developing low in the Gulf, then it might get interesting.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
712. Naga5000
1:54 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 706. Bucsboltsfan:



Is it really supposed to be a science blog or a blog for weather enthusiasts? Dr. Rood's is most definitely a science blog.


Would you be okay if someone continuously posted that "tropical storms weren't real" day in or day out?
Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson devote a large portion of this blog to climate change and global warming, getting the facts right is an important issue. Why not question the people who when presented with facts day in and day out, not only by us, but by Dr. Masters and Dr. Hensen, reject those facts in favor of ideological bias? Why is it instead turned around like we are doing something wrong by posting information and correcting misinformation / disinformation?

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711. Pipejazz
1:51 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 706. Bucsboltsfan:



Is it really supposed to be a science blog or a blog for weather enthusiasts? Dr. Rood's is most definitely a science blog.

Well....
Understanding weather should relate to science or you could have visions of a great bearded giant blowing the wind around the sky. An analogy would be motorcycle enthusiasts not understanding the science of tire pressure and proceed to ride until that blow out on the freeway. RIP.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
710. ricderr
1:51 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Any guesses why there is such a strong cold anomaly signal south of Greenland this year ? It doest appear in other El Nino years that i could find in the Nesdis plots.



MELTING ICE
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709. ncstorm
1:51 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
00z Navgem Ensembles..

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708. southfla
1:50 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 652. StormTrackerScott:



2015 is much warmer west than 1997 and the warmer anomalies are more spread out as well. I would be concerned if i were you because this event is going to surpass 1997 as there is a rapidly 3rd Kelvin Wave developing beneath 180W and this will be what drives us past 1997 especially across nino 3.4. Remember 1997's heat was more concentrated this years event is massive and getting stronger ever week especially after we just had a record MJO & WWB. All this will do is cause sea surface anomalies to rise in dramatic fashion the next several week.



Any guesses why there is such a strong cold anomaly signal south of Greenland this year ? It doest appear in other El Nino years that i could find in the Nesdis plots.
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707. washingtonian115
1:48 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
I think 92L could be classified later today as T.D 2 or Claudette.Looks organized to me but then again I'm no expert :) but then again after what last years hurricanes looked like...Does anyone know if a aircraft investigation has been called?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
705. LargoFl
1:41 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Quoting 695. TCweatherman:

Code orange everyone, repeat code orange!!
yes chances somehow went up to 40%,good thing they believe 92 wont affect the states,not yet anyway gee
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704. ncstorm
1:40 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
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703. islander101010
1:40 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
need.numbers
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702. ncstorm
1:40 PM GMT on July 13, 2015
Good Morning all..

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather