Typhoon Chan-hom Heads for China; Invest 96E a Threat to Hawaii

By: Jeff Masters , 4:22 PM GMT on July 07, 2015

Category 1 Typhoon Chan-hom is headed westwards towards China, where it is expected to make landfall on Friday or Saturday. Chan-hom passed just north of Guam on Sunday, bringing sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 62 mph, to Andersen Air Base; a 3-day rainfall total of 13.83" was recorded. Satellite images show that Chan-hom is a large storm with a prominent eye, and it is expected to take advantage of moderate wind shear and very warm ocean waters and intensify into a Category 4 storm by Thursday.


Figure 1. Triple trouble in the Pacific. From left to right: Tropical Storm Linfa in the South China Sea, Category 1 Typhoon Chan-Hom, and Category 3 Typhoon Nangka. Image was taken by the JMA MTSAT-2 satellite at 0230Z on July 7, 2015. Typhoon Nangka is expected to intensify to Category 5 strength and pass near the uninhabited island of Agrihan in the Northern Mariana Islands on Thursday. Nangka could threaten Japan 8 - 10 days from now as a weaker storm. Tropical Storm Linfa hit the Philippines' northern island of Luzon over the weekend, and is expected to make landfall in China on Thursday as a tropical storm. Image credit: NOAA Viz Lab.

Forecast for Chan-hom
Chan-hom will be steered by a strong ridge of high pressure towards the west-northwest through Thursday, when the typhoon will pass near Miyakojima in the Miyako Islands of Okinawa Prefecture, Japan. Chan-hom is then likely to make landfall in Mainland China north of Taiwan on Friday afternoon or Saturday morning. However, landfall in China is not a sure thing, as a strong trough of low pressure is expected to turn the typhoon northwards as the center nears the coast on Friday. A potential worst-case scenario would be if Chan-hom turns northwards just before hitting the coast, and passes just offshore and very close to Shanghai as a Category 1 or stronger typhoon. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the storm could then potentially bring a significant storm surge to China's most populous city (14 million people.) The majority of Shanghai lies less than 2 meters (6.6 feet) above sea level, and the city is very vulnerable to flooding from storm surge and the heavy rains of typhoons. Shanghai is very important economically--about 14% of China's freight goes through the city. The models are divided in how they handle the trough of low pressure that Chan-hom will encounter late this week, and it is too early to say how much concern we should have for this worst-case scenario. According to 2011 New York Times article, engineers have stretched hundreds of miles of levees along the Yangtze River where it meets the sea in the city. The lowest of those levees were built to withstand a one-in-1,000-year storm surge, and defended Shanghai against the highest tidal surge in modern times, which came during Typhoon Winnie of 1997.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Invest 96E.

Invest 96E a threat to Hawaii
Hawaii needs to watch Invest 96E, located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big Island. Satellite loops show that 96E is close to tropical depression status, with a pronounced low-level spin and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is light, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, near 27.5°C. The 8 am EDT Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Friday, and ocean temperatures would cool to a marginal 26°C. These conditions should prevent rapid intensification of 96E. Our two most reliable track models, the GFS and European models, show 96E coming within 200 miles of the Hawaiian Islands on Friday. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 90%. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 96E on Wednesday afternoon.

Hawaii has seen an unusual amount of hurricane activity over the past three years. Tropical Storm Flossie passed with 100 miles of the islands in 2013, and an unprecedented three hurricanes in one year passed within 200 miles of Hawaii in 2014. This included Hurricane Iselle, which made landfall on the Big Island on August 8, 2014 as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds--only the second recorded landfall of a tropical storm on the Big Island. Warmer than average ocean temperatures have made this action possible--ocean temperatures along the track of Invest 96E are about 2°F above average, similar to what was seen in 2014.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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420. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:39 AM GMT on July 09, 2015
Quoting 289. tampabaymatt:



The graphic you posted shows a bullseye of PWAT around NE FL, yet you mention that weather in the Tampa Bay area is going to get interesting next week. From what I can tell in looking at the models, rainfall chances in Tampa into next week are going to increase, but doesn't appear to be anything out of the ordinary for this time of the year. The GFS shows some high rain totals for the nature coast, but this is well north of Tampa proper. Can you help me understand how you expect this back door cold front to impact Tampa beyond the usual high rain chances for July?
Simple the front doesn't come through, it stalls most likely over north FL. and ahead of the front is where the moisture pools in, in fact the GFS model has been consistently showing a meso high diving down south along a trough of low pressure that develops off the East Coast. Also, the flow is going to be more onshore and the weakness created by the trough will allow moisture to be drawn up from the Western Caribbean as a tropical wave approaches by the middle of next week.



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
419. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:05 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
418. Neapolitan
3:59 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 409. cytochromeC:



74,000 years ago we went down to possibly 2000 homo sapiens, as we know from the bottleneck in the mtDNA.
So, we just about went extinct in the past.

That's what some say. If the Toba Catastrophe Theory is correct, it shows that mankind has no special rights to this revolving rock; we vary from the millions of species that have gone extinct before us only in the amount of luck we've found from time to time.
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417. barbamz
3:58 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
New video of that Framersheim-downburst yesterday a little south of me (see post #267) has emerged, and I really cannot hide this from your attention. Quite like an eyewall experience, at least for some seconds, or not?

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416. weathermanwannabe
3:58 PM GMT on July 08, 2015

http://www.stripes.com/blogs/pacific-storm-tracke r/pacific-storm-tracker-1.257110/typhoon-11w-nangk a-12-1.356158


11:15 p.m. Wednesday, July 8, Guam time: Nangka’s forecast track has edged slightly more northwest; Joint Typhoon Warning Center now projects Nangka to pass 136 miles northeast of Saipan early Thursday afternoon. And JTWC sees Nangka diminishing to 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts as it curve north, 200 miles south of Iwo Jima at about midnight Monday Japan time.

Saipan and Tinian remain under typhoon watch and tropical storm warning, according to Guam’s National Weather Service. A typhoon warning remains in effect for the northern Marianas islands of Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan. Guam and Rota remain safely out of harm’s way for the moment.


9:30 p.m. Wednesday, July 8, Guam time: The good news, if there is such a thing regarding tropical cyclones: It appears now as if Nangka will just miss out on becoming the fourth super typhoon of the season. It’s now forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to peak at 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts starting early Thursday morning. Still a powerful storm, to be certain.

Now, the bad news: Nangka’s track has shifted west-northwest and is now projected to pass 122 miles northeast of Saipan about midday Thursday. Close enough that Guam’s National Weather Service has issued a tropical storm warning for Saipan and Tinian, which both also remain under typhoon watch. A typhoon warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and the Alamagan islands in the northern Marianas.

The good news for Iwo Jima: As Nangka passes north of the 20th parallel, it’s forecast to start diminishing, and should be packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts as it comes within 200 miles south of the island about 3 p.m. Monday.

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415. tornadodude
3:56 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Video of tornado in Italy a few moments ago
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414. weathermanwannabe
3:52 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
As a reference point...........A little confusing pulling up individual loops and images of a single storm without knowing what else (the other two) is in the neighborhood:

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413. Kenfa03
3:50 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 356. Naga5000:



Who said anything about "humans perishing"? There will certainly be an increase in situations that could directly lead to increases in the probability of human death. Seems like you are being...coy.

Did not intend to sound coy. Concerned about future for my family.
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412. ILwthrfan
3:50 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
LINFA CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE...


CHINA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION


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411. pablosyn
3:49 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
WOW...this is the MJO with some part in Brazil:


Interesting systems... extratropical of course, but still interesting...
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409. cytochromeC
3:47 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 369. Neapolitan:

Whoever said anything about humans perishing? Tens of millions--well, okay, hundreds of millions--will almost certainly die from the direct and indirect effects of climate change, as millions already have. But as a species, we're not going anywhere.

If the complete extinction of our species is the sole criterion for determining whether we need to do something about climate change, I'd say we have nothing to worry about.


74,000 years ago we went down to possibly 2000 homo sapiens, as we know from the bottleneck in the mtDNA.
So, we just about went extinct in the past.
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408. weathermanwannabe
3:47 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
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407. ricderr
3:45 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
from NOAA....

Figure 2 shows the 5 and 95 percent confidence limits of U.S. hurricanes during El Niño. During El Niño, we are 90% confident that the probability of no hurricanes making U.S. landfall is somewhere between 17 and 24 percent. The probability of exactly one U.S. hurricane given an El Niño is between 45 and 58 percent, and the probability of two U.S. hurricanes during El Niño lies between 25 and 31 percent. Based on the historical data, there is no chance of more than 2 U.S. hurricanes during El Niño.

Here only empirical data is used to determine return frequencies of major U.S. hurricanes. Figure 5 shows that during an El Niño, the probability of at least one major U.S. hurricane is about 23 percent. The probabilities for at least one major U.S. hurricane during the other two phases are much higher: 58% for neutral conditions and 63% during a cold event. The United States is much more likely to see a major hurricane during neutral or cold events than during El Niño

Here we quantitatively relate the impacts of warm (and cold) sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to the number of hurricanes making landfall in the United States. Whether or not an El Niño event is identified during the early summer, as it was in 1997, the potential for a major outbreak of U.S. hurricanes in an El Niño year is significantly decreased. The chance of a major U.S. hurricane is reduced as well.
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406. weathermanwannabe
3:42 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Here is the latest from China on the Typhoon situation:

SHANGHAI - Shanghai plans to suspend all passenger trains along the coast on Friday and Saturday as Typhoon Chan-Hom approaches, the Shanghai Railway Bureau said on Wednesday.

It is forecast that Typhoon Chan-Hom will begin to affect the Yangtze River Delta on Thursday. It could make landfall in Zhejiang province on Saturday morning, according to the latest meteorological advisory.

Meanwhile, 15 counties in South China's Guangdong province have issued a yellow alert for another approaching Typhoon, Linfa, closing elementary and middle schools.

Linfa is expected to hit the coast of Fujian and Guangdong provinces on Wednesday night.

As of 12 pm, Typhoon Linfa's center is in the South China Sea about 280 km southeast of Shantou City in Guangdong province. It is forecast to move northwest at a speed of 10 km per hour.

Rainstorms are expected in the eastern parts of Guangdong province from Wednesday to Thursday.

China has a four-tier color-coded weather warning system, with red representing the most severe weather, followed by orange, yellow and blue.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
405. JustDucky251
3:42 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 393. BahaHurican:

Re: vaccination

I think it's real easy to be anti vaccination in a society where the vast majority of the most horrible transmitted diseases have been virtually eliminated by them. Why vaccinate against polio, e.g., when there's no one left to catch it from? To put it another way, there are a lot fewer anti vaccination criers in non-developed countries ...


Unfortunately this is not true. Not long ago (months) a crew of vaccinators was killed because locals had been convinced that vaccines were part of a government plot to kill them. In other places, Pakistan for instance, there are religious taboos against introducing anything foreign into the body and this includes vaccines. Ask the WHO about resistance.
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404. tornadodude
3:40 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
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403. pablosyn
3:39 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 368. StormTrackerScott:



Looks atleast 90 to 100 knts.


I agree with you. To me is 80 knots at least...but not 100 knots.

Just to remember...look Odile:


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402. Patrap
3:39 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Local Severe Alert for Italy

Statement as of 2015-07-08 07:30:00 GMT, valid until 2015-07-08 07:30:00 GMT

Description: Extreme high temperature

Cities affected: Verona, Italy; Vicenza, Italy; Padova, Italy; Istrana, Italy; Treviso S. Angelo, Italy; Venice - San Nicolo, Italy; Venice, Italy; Padova Airport, Italy

Today's Extremes

Country Highs

102 F Cagliari
100 F Decimomannu
100 F Sigonella
99 F Amendola
96 F Falconara
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
401. hurricanes2018
3:38 PM GMT on July 08, 2015



Typhoon Chan-hom winds 105 mph on july 8 2015 at 11:20am
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
400. tornadodude
3:37 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Storm chaser I know from Italy says there is a violent tornado associated with this supercell headed towards Venice.

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398. georgevandenberghe
3:31 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 358. ACSeattle:


So, you're willing to sacrifice the entire human race on your NO BIG GUB'MINT altar. Interesting.


Well that's one way to reduce the size of Government.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
397. hurricanes2018
3:30 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some
development of this system is possible this weekend and early next
week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

wow!!! maybe the next storm to watch
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396. Gearsts
3:29 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Chance for a TC over the Atlantic MDR are very low but i do agree that closer to the US they are higher but compared to average they are still below normal.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
394. StormTrackerScott
3:27 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 392. Gearsts:

Read my comment again.


If this doesn't change the how in the heck are we going to get anything atleast in the Eastern Caribbean. NW or SW Caribbean will have a chance due to some off shoots of these MJO pulse and its possible we could see a cross over from the E-Pac down the road other than that the C & Eastern Caribbean is looking dull.
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393. BahaHurican
3:24 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Re: vaccination

I think it's real easy to be anti vaccination in a society where the vast majority of the most horrible transmitted diseases have been virtually eliminated by them. Why vaccinate against polio, e.g., when there's no one left to catch it from? To put it another way, there are a lot fewer anti vaccination criers in non-developed countries ...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
392. Gearsts
3:23 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 389. StormTrackerScott:



Again False info???????

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 8m8 minutes ago
30-day-averaged shear in the Caribbean is now the strongest on record (CFSR began in 1979).

Read my comment again.
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391. pottery
3:23 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 326. indianrivguy:



One has to wonder about chemistry changes, ie PH, and CO2 saturation levels that are accelerating, and nutrient loading. Sargassum is a macro-algae and responds to N and P.

If there is an "up side", it will be that there is a Massive industry waiting to get started.
Scoop all the weed up, wash it and compress it into fertiliser, for growing food.

It's crammed with Phosphorus, Calcium, and much else.
It will require washing first, which will need plenty fresh water.
Guyana can handle that.

What say the blog ?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
390. Gearsts
3:22 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 386. StormTrackerScott:



No true. The higher Sea Surface profile and lowest shear are near the US and have been all Summer. Its just a matter of time before we start seeing something cut off near the Bahamas.

This image has been the same since May. Again lowest shear is near the US. info is true my friend not false.


Quoting 386. StormTrackerScott:



No true. The higher Sea Surface profile and lowest shear are near the US and have been all Summer. Its just a matter of time before we start seeing something cut off near the Bahamas.

This image has been the same since May. Again lowest shear is near the US. info is true my friend not false.


FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND
LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2015
We continue to foresee a below-average 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. A moderate to
strong El Niño is underway, and the tropical Atlantic remains cooler than normal. We
are still calling for a below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major
hurricane landfall.
Philip J. Klotzbach
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
389. StormTrackerScott
3:19 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 381. Gearsts:

Chance of seeing a major tc closer to the US are not higher this year, that information is false STS.


Again False info???????

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 8m8 minutes ago
30-day-averaged shear in the Caribbean is now the strongest on record (CFSR began in 1979).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
388. hurricanes2018
3:17 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Typhoon Chan-hom

Typhoon Chan-hom
Last Updated Jul 8, 2015 12 GMT
Location 21.0N 131.7E Movement WNW
Wind 105 MPH

winds went up to 105 mph
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
387. islander101010
3:14 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
so one little chart with a line tells you the water temps. from 20 w to 80 w.??? thats a big chunk of this world. the sun gets directly over those mdr regions now. it will warm up quick
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386. StormTrackerScott
3:13 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 381. Gearsts:

Chance of seeing a major tc closer to the US are not higher this year, that information is false STS.


No true. The higher Sea Surface profile and lowest shear are near the US and have been all Summer. Its just a matter of time before we start seeing something cut off near the Bahamas.

This image has been the same since May. Again lowest shear is near the US. info is true my friend not false.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
385. JohnLonergan
3:11 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 282. Neapolitan:

Anti-vaxxers can indeed be lumped in with climate change deniers and those who don't support evolution inasmuch as such people tend to reject logic, evidence, and empirical science and instead base their opinions on the shaky and unstable scaffolding of ideology, superstition, conspiracy theory, and bog-standard ignorance. Blog "science" is not real science; any thinking adult should know that...


Interesting and timely Lewandowski, Cook et al have just published a sequel to Recursive Fury, the following is an excerpt from a post at HotWhopper:

Recursive Fury reborn as Recurrent Fury

Today, a new version of Recursive Fury has been published. It has the title Recurrent Fury. The work has been expanded. The paper describes two additional pieces of research that confirm the original analysis. It's also got two extra authors, Professor Scott Brophy of Hobart and William Smith Colleges, and Professor Elisabeth Lloyd of Indiana University. The two new authors were quite independent of the original work and were asked to validate the original study, which they did.

Unlike the original, this new expanded version is anonymised, and only mentions blogs by name in Table 2 (see below). Instead of quoting comments, the new version paraphrases.



The paper describes three studies:

Study 1: Thematic analysis, which is the original Recursive Fury. The authors analysed blog articles and comments having conspiratorial themes related to LOG12. This was a depth analysis, which produced 172 items for the research. The researchers grouped these into categories based on that in the literature on conspiracy ideation. They also identified a new classification, which they called "Unreflexive Counterfactual Thinking".

Study 2: Recreating classifications. In this work, the blogosphere was examined again and a whole lot of additional items were added. These were combined with a subset from Study 1, and the larger set of 508 items were classified into groupings of like conspiratorial thinking. The aim here was to test that the classifications were robust. That is, if the final classifications from this larger study was similar to that in Study 1, it would support the original analysis. And it did.

Study 3: Blind test of conspiracist criteria. In this study, PhD students wrote scholarly criticisms of the moon-landing paper (written especially for this study by PhD students who were unknown to the authors). These were mixed in with the conspiratorial comments. Then a different lot of people classified the items in the combined set according to the conspiracy criteria. The purpose here was two-fold. It provided another independent test of the classification of the conspiratorial items. Plus, by comparing scholarly criticisms with conspiratorial comments, it showed that there was a difference between conspiratorial comments and scholarly criticism. This is despite the fact that the PhD students who wrote the scholarly criticisms were asked to be as sharply critical as possible of LOG12, the original paper. In other words, they were asked to nasty more than nice :)

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
384. Patrap
3:09 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 159. Xandra:

From Climate Central:

Two Maps Show Greenland’s Sudden Melt Season Onset

It appears that Greenland’s melt season is making up for lost time.

After a cool spring kept Greenland’s massive ice sheet mostly solid, a (comparatively) warm late June and early July have turned half the ice sheet’s surface into liquid, well outside the range of normal for this time of year.

Despite the ice sheet’s remote location, its slushy fingers reach across the globe, influencing sea levels and how fast the Gulf Stream current moves. As temperatures rise, its influence could grow larger as major summer melt events become regular occurrence. Recent warming has already contributed to ice loss in some areas previously thought to be stable and sped the trip of some glaciers into the sea.

Read more >>



Daily surface mass balance estimates of the Greenland ice sheet. Red indicates losses.
Credit: Polar Portal

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
383. JRRP
3:08 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
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382. BahaHurican
3:08 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
BTW islander, good to see you got keyboard problem solved... :-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
381. Gearsts
3:07 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 375. StormTrackerScott:



Chances of seeing that across the MDR this year i suspect are around 20% chances much higher closer to the US even as far north as the MId Atlantic.
Chance of seeing a major tc closer to the US are not higher this year, that information is false STS.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
380. LAbonbon
3:06 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Just noticed this is the first day in a while without heat advisories of some sort issued for the Pacific Northwest. Bet that's welcome news for the folks up there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
379. sar2401
3:06 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 366. BahaHurican:

I expect we will continue to see development in non-MDR regions as has been the trend the last few seasons.
I think we'll still see some development in the MDR come September and October. Even the worst looking season manages to crank out a storm or two from the MDR when there's a window of opportunity. It's just doubtful we'll see much in the near future.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
378. BahaHurican
3:06 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 372. frank727:



If I can point my finger at one equation I would most likely be banned.
It would be interesting if you have an idea to share that's different from what has been proposed so far. The shear can be attributed to developing el Nino conditions, but there's still a lot of room for thoughts about the dryness and stability.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
377. weathermanwannabe
3:04 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 330. BahaHurican:

Good morning. It has been pretty hazy here the last few days ...


Notwithstanding the typical June-July SAL issues, once it retreats a bit, the SST's will bump up several degrees across the Central Atlantic MDR. I will note that we have had a pretty consistent pattern of African waves lately and precipitation in the Sahel region (below) has been pretty good lately also. Just noting that we will probably have an active Cape Verde wave train this year. However, what happens once they start moving across the Central Atlantic is another issue; there is not much instability in the Central Atlantic and plenty of dry air (and potential shear) to worry about. If the last few years are any indication, we may not get any hurricanes that actually form from waves before reaching the Antilles again............................Been a long time, regardless of Enso phase, that we saw a hurricane barrel through the Lesser Antilles due to dry stable air and/or fast moving trades.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
376. Patrap
3:03 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 368. StormTrackerScott:



Looks atleast 90 to 100 knts.


pssst'

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2015 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 22:24:24 N Lon : 118:08:37 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 960.4mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 4.2

Center Temp : -44.5C Cloud Region Temp : -64.0C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 65km
- Environmental MSLP : 1001mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.0 degrees



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
375. StormTrackerScott
3:01 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 365. Patrap:

I always prepare for a Major, as it is the only hedge bet I can make on calamity.






Chances of seeing that across the MDR this year i suspect are around 20% chances much higher closer to the US even as far north as the MId Atlantic.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
374. opal92nwf
3:01 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 325. 69Viking:

Seems we have another blocking High over the Southeast, oh joy, hot and dry again!



Luckily it shouldn't completely stop pop up seabreeze storms in our neck of the woods.
_________________________________________________ ________________________

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1049 am EDT Wednesday Jul 8 2015

Near term [through today]...
with deep layer high pressure in place, another warm day is on
tap for the region. Expect high temperatures to reach well into
the 90s, with highest values over southeast Alabama and SW Georgia.
Seabreeze climatology for northeast flow favors the Panhandle coast for
convection this afternoon.
Local ecam guidance supports this with
highest probability of precipitation centered on Panama City. Have adjusted forecast probability of precipitation
slightly towards this solution, and lowered probability of precipitation for Tallahassee.

&&

Previous discussion [634 am edt]...

Short term [tonight through friday]...

Stacked high pressure over the southeast will limit convection to
sea breeze thunderstorms.
Probability of precipitation will only be 3o percent on Thursday
and 20 percent on Friday. Limited storms will keep temperatures hot with
highs in the middle 90s and lows in the 70s. Heat indices will be
above 100 both days.



Long term [friday night through wednesday]...

Deep layer ridging will remain in place through the weekend
limiting probability of precipitation to the 20-30 range. Starting Monday troughing will
build in from the northeast bringing increasing rain chances early
next week.
Highs will be in the middle to upper 90s, with heat
indices of 102-106 each day. Lows will be muggy in the middle 70s.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
373. Patrap
3:00 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
The MDR produces the wave train, and I only worry in August and Sept when they reach this area.

Thats where the meatball meats da sauce.


Ones locale matters greatly.



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
372. frank727
3:00 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 318. Neapolitan:

Fair enough. So to what do you attribute all the shear and dry air? The atmosphere doesn't do things because it feels like it; it responds to multiple stimuli. So in your opinion, what might those stimuli be?


If I can point my finger at one equation I would most likely be banned.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
371. StormTrackerScott
3:00 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
Quoting 366. BahaHurican:

I expect we will continue to see development in non-MDR regions as has been the trend the last few seasons.


Yup, SW Atlantic/Gulf regions or anything over 20N should be of interest.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
370. nrtiwlnvragn
3:00 PM GMT on July 08, 2015
UKMET lights up.......


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather