Kids, Cars, and Heatstroke: A Lethal Summer Mix

By: Bob Henson , 3:21 PM GMT on July 02, 2015

Any child’s death is heartbreaking, but there is something uniquely poignant about the way in which dozens of U.S. youngsters die each year: trapped in an oven-like vehicle on a quiet summer day. “That pain is every day. It’s always there,” one grief-stricken mother told CNN seven years after she inadvertently left her 9-month-old baby in her car. Close to 400 children have died across the nation over the last decade in this tragic way.

You don’t have to live in Phoenix or Houston for your car to become a death trap in summer heat. Jan Null (Department of Meteorology & Climate Science,San Jose State University) discovered how easy it is for a vehicle to heat up when it’s getting the intense solar radiation of summertime. Formerly a lead forecaster for the National Weather Service in the San Francisco Bay area, Null was interviewed by media in 2001 after a baby’s death in San Jose on an 86°F day. “Out of scientific curiosity, I started casually tracking temperatures in my own vehicles and was startled at not only how hot the readings were but also how rapidly they rose,” he recalled. He soon joined forces with two Stanford University Hospital doctors, Catherine McLaren and James Quinn, to carry out a more thorough analysis that was published in Pediatrics in 2005. The take-home finding was that full sunlight hitting a dark sedan boosted interior temperatures by more than 6°F every 10 minutes, even when outdoor temperatures were in the 70s. The paper concluded: “Even at relatively cool ambient temperatures, the temperature rise in vehicles is significant on clear, sunny days and puts infants at risk for hyperthermia. Vehicles heat up rapidly, with the majority of the temperature rise occurring within the first 15 to 30 minutes. Leaving the windows opened slightly does not significantly slow the heating process or decrease the maximum temperature attained.”


Figure 1. Even when temperatures outside are only 80°F, sunshine entering a closed vehicle can push the temperature to 109°F in just twenty minutes. After an hour, the car’s interior air can reach a blistering 123°F. Cracking windows does not reduce the ability of the air to reach such high temperatures. The sunshine entering the car rapidly heats up surfaces (the dashboard or steering wheel can reach 180 – 200°F on an 80°F day). These surfaces, in turn, heat up the interior through convection and conduction as well as by longwave radiation, in much the same way that an asphalt parking lot sends heat upward. An hour’s worth of warming is depicted in this QuickTime animation. Image credit: GM and Jan Null.

Null is passionate about providing good scientific information to advocates, policymakers, and emergency responders about how hot cars can get and the circumstances that lead to children dying in vehicles from heatstroke. His website noheatstroke.org includes a set of frequently updated statistics that bring home the problem vividly. Of the 637 such deaths recorded from 1998 to 2014, just over half involved children who were “forgotten,” many of them left in a vehicle by a parent or caregiver rushing to work in the morning. Maps that show the location of each incident from year to year make it abundantly clear that latitude is no protection: 2014 saw deaths in Michigan New York, and Connecticut, and 2015 has already seen a confirmed death in northern Idaho. Perhaps surprisingly, Null reports that only 20 states have laws regarding leaving children unattended in vehicles.


Figure 3. Geographic distribution of heatstroke deaths involving children and vehicles, 1998 – 2014. Image credit: Jan Null.

Here are Null’s safety recommendations:

Never leave a child unattended in a vehicle—not even for a minute!
—If you see a child unattended in a hot vehicle, call 911.
—Be sure that all occupants leave the vehicle when unloading. Don't overlook sleeping babies.
—Always lock your car and ensure children do not have access to keys or remote entry devices. Teach children that vehicles are never to be used as a play area.
—If a child is missing, always check the pool first, and then the car, including the trunk.
—Keep a stuffed animal in the carseat, and when the child is put in the seat, place the animal in the front with the driver. Or place your purse, briefcase, or cell phone in the back seat as a reminder that you have your child in the car.
—Make "look before you leave" a routine whenever you get out of the car.
—Have a plan that your childcare provider will call you if your child does not show up for school.

For a look at how heat affects the human body, check out our latest WU infographic (excerpted at the bottom of this post).


And don’t forget about Fido!

Smokey the Wonder Dog (right) joins Bob in reminding you that a vehicle roasting in the summer sun can be dangerous to pets, too. Hundreds are believed to die around the country each year after being left in hot cars. At least 16 states have laws of various types that prohibit endangering a pet’s life by leaving it unattended in a parked car. As of July 1, police officers across the state of Washington can break into parked cars as needed to rescue pets, with limits on their liability for vehicle damage. The pet’s guardian can face a $125 fine.

The Humane Society offers these tips on how you can help if you see a pet in a parked car on a sunny summer day:

—Take down the car's make, model and license-plate number.

—If there are businesses nearby, notify their managers or security guards and ask them to make an announcement to find the car's owner.

—If the owner can't be found, call the non-emergency number of the local police or animal control and wait by the car for them to arrive.

The American Veterinary Medicine Association suggests: “Before you put your pet in the vehicle, ask yourself if you really need to take your pet with you--and if the answer is no, leave your pet safely at home.”

Have a happy and safe Fourth of July weekend, everybody!

Bob Henson

Figure 3 (below). An excerpt from “Heat and the Human Body,” the latest infographic from Weather Underground. The full version, created by WU’s Jerimiah Brown, can be found online.





European heat wave continues
Brutally hot conditions continued over Europe on Thursday, with the hottest temperatures shifted eastwards over Eastern France, the Netherlands, and Western Germany. The temperature in Maastrict, the Netherlands, hit 100.8°F (38.2°C), just missing the Netherlands' all-time hottest temperature record of 101.5°F (38.6°C), set on August 23, 1944 at Warnsveld.

According to Meteo France, on Wednesday, the high temperature at the official Montsouris station in Paris, France hit 103.5°F (39.7°C), the second warmest temperature ever measured there, and not far from Paris' all-time record of 104.7°F (40.4°C) set in July 1947. At least three stations in France set all-time heat records on Wednesday:

Boulogne-sur-Mer (station opened in 1947): 35.4°C (Previous record 34.8°C on 08/11/2003)
Dieppe (station opened in 1949): 38.3°C (Previous record 37°C on 07/09/2006)
Melun (station opened in 1947): 39.4°C (Previous record 38.9°C on 08/12/2003)

Three tropical cyclones in the Pacific
A Typhoon Watch is up for Guam for Typhoon Chan-hom, which is expected to pass very close to the island late morning U.S. EDT time on Saturday as an intensifying Category 2 storm. The NWS in Guam is putting out special advisories and local statements on the typhoon.

Chan-hom will be the second typhoon to affect the island this year; in May, the eye of Category 2 Typhoon Dolphin passed through the channel between the islands of Guam and Rota, bringing sustained winds of 84 mph, gusting to 106 mph, to Andersen Air Force Base on Guam. Dolphin knocked out power and damaged some homes, but the islands escaped serious destruction.

The Philippines are watching Tropical Depression Ten, which is expected to skirt the northern island of Luzon over the weekend as a Category 1 typhoon. In the South Pacific, a rare winter tropical cyclone, Raquel, is drenching the Solomon Islands.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 340 - 290

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7Blog Index

340. nonblanche
12:47 AM GMT on July 04, 2015
Quoting 294. sar2401:

Ah, if that's the case, time for you and the neighbors to start flooding the NV Public Utilities Commission with complaints. NVEnergy is mandated to provide reliable and safe power in its service area. Fluctuating line voltages provide neither. The last thing any regulated utility wants to see is the PUC on their back due to consumer complaints. This is especially true if any of the commissioners are trying to make a name for him or herself. Time for the community organizers to get to work. :-)


Got it. Might not work, as (especially with the "interesting" people who live down Soda Lake) a good many of the people especially outside the county seat boundaries prefer to stay "under the radar." :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
339. MahFL
9:04 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 311. sar2401:

I think the idea is that water would drip from the tree for long after the rain stopped, thus increasing the total precipitation. Of course, that only works if the leaf cover allows some of the precipitation through to begin with.


The precipitation over a tree is exactly the same as over grassland or concrete next to it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
338. TropicalAnalystwx13
5:42 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
This is the byproduct of a record-breaking MJO pulse:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
337. KoritheMan
5:37 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 327. Envoirment:



That's not really true. There's plenty of 26C+ water in large portions of the MDR in the caribbean and some east/north. From about 20-50W and 10-20N there's a lot of water less than 26C though. It's only July 3rd though. The MDR won't reach its peak until September-October and there have been El Nino years with -AMO that have had activty in the MDR. Most of 1987's activity that year was in the MDR, including Major Hurricane Emily which hit haiti/dominican republic as a category 3. Not to say there might not be much if any activity in the MDR, but just because we have a strengthening El Nino and unfavourable SSTs doesn't mean we can't see any activity there, as the MDR is still capable of producing a major.

Of course most of the activity will generally be in the sub-tropics, so the US particularly should be on the look out. Storms like Hurricane Betsy (1965), Hurricane Agnes (1972), Hurricane Bob (1991) & Tropical Storm Alberto (1994) have caused a lot of damage and destruction to the US during El Nino/-AMO years. Will be an interesting year.


I think people sometimes forget what anomalies mean. The MDR is still going to be warm enough to support tropical cyclogenesis by August and September.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
336. KoritheMan
5:30 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 318. StormTrackerScott:



One should remember the CFS & Euro do have a warm bias but still should give a really good indication where we are going. I was saying 1.8C for a max but I am changing that to 2.5C to 2.6C due to the fact we have the strongest WWB on record for July which will in turn cause a lot warming across the ENSO regions.


I'm conservative. 1.5 to 2.0C, and certainly no greater than that. I've seen WWBs fade before, but you and Eric probably know more about this topic than me.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
335. sar2401
4:58 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 333. LAbonbon:




Same pattern as yesterday, with all the energy staying in north Alabama. It would be nice if some of that would sag southward but that doesn't look like that's going to happen. Even BMX has given up on that idea, and now I only have a 20% chance of rain. The storms are going to cause flooding problems in north Alabama though as they train over the same areas.

EDIT: Geez, I did it again...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
334. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:56 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
333. LAbonbon
4:37 PM GMT on July 03, 2015


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
332. cRRKampen
4:30 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 310. maxcrc:

Netherlands temperatures were ever hotter than in August 1944, the fact is the hottest area of Netherlands has no stations right now, the title's holder doesn't exist anymore and Maastricht official station was moved to the airport which has a cooler microclimate.
For Paris, also in 1947 nobody cared to water the terrain, while now the terrain in the Observatory area is constantly watered, this is the only reason why the record was not beaten, although it was warmer in 2003 and in 2015 than in 1947.
For Belgium, it is even worse, the shelter used at Uccle before 1983 was in no standard condition and the temperature was proven to be overestimated by 2.0 to 2.2C, in this case also it is safe to calculate how in 2003, 2006 and 2015 higher temperatures than in 1947 were recorded
Nearly 100% of old heat records are overestimated , in the best cases by just a couple of degrees Celsius, in the worst cases by more than 10C (including some official US State records).

You may be quite right.
Unfortunately we can't (or: I won't) use this kind of musings to assess a temp record. Especially in the teeth of the ideological side to the CC debate.
But actually I don't really have to, because as climate change continues the old records will be smashed sometime soon anyway.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
331. Envoirment
4:29 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 328. StormTrackerScott:



Tweet was from actually Ryan Maue


The tweet highlights the cold water of less than 26C in the eastern tropical atlantic/eastern part of the MDR, but looking at the SST charts, half of the MDR is 26C or above, with 28-30C water in the Caribbean. If the entire MDR was below 26C then Levi's SST anomaly chart for it would likely be in the -1C or lower range:





Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
330. rayduray2013
4:23 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
BBC In Pictures: Lightning and Hail Storm Across N. England (last night)


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
329. Envoirment
4:22 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 317. KoritheMan:



Even considering my skepticism, 2.5C is a LOT more believable than some of the 4-5C numbers the ECMWF members were spitting out before.


The corrected version of the CFSv2 currently shows around 2C with some members going up to around 2.3C



That's the highest of the 3 versions and is more believable than the non-corrected version.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
328. StormTrackerScott
4:19 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 327. Envoirment:



That's not really true. There's plenty of 26C+ water in large portions of the MDR in the caribbean and some east/north. From about 20-50W and 10-20N there's a lot of water less than 26C though. It's only July 3rd though. The MDR won't reach its peak until September-October and there have been El Nino years with -AMO that have had activty in the MDR. Most of 1987's activity that year was in the MDR, including Major Hurricane Emily which hit haiti/dominican republic as a category 3. Not to say there might not be much if any activity in the MDR, but just because we have a strengthening El Nino and unfavourable SSTs doesn't mean we can't see any activity there, as the MDR is still capable of producing a major.

Of course most of the activity will generally be in the sub-tropics, so the US particularly should be on the look out. Storms like Hurricane Betsy (1965), Hurricane Agnes (1972), Hurricane Bob (1991) & Tropical Storm Alberto (1994) have caused a lot of damage and destruction to the US during El Nino/-AMO years. Will be an interesting year.


Tweet was from actually Ryan Maue
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
327. Envoirment
4:17 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 303. StormTrackerScott:



Dr. Phil Klotzbach states SST's aren't even 26C which is a threshold to get a tropical system going. We maybe hard pressed to get anything this year out of the MDR maybe the Caribbean too.


That's not really true. There's plenty of 26C+ water in large portions of the MDR in the caribbean and some east/north. From about 20-50W and 10-20N there's a lot of water less than 26C though. It's only July 3rd though. The MDR won't reach its peak until September-October and there have been El Nino years with -AMO that have had activty in the MDR. Most of 1987's activity that year was in the MDR, including Major Hurricane Emily which hit haiti/dominican republic as a category 3. Not to say there might not be much if any activity in the MDR, but just because we have a strengthening El Nino and unfavourable SSTs doesn't mean we can't see any activity there, as the MDR is still capable of producing a major.

Of course most of the activity will generally be in the sub-tropics, so the US particularly should be on the look out. Storms like Hurricane Betsy (1965), Hurricane Agnes (1972), Hurricane Bob (1991) & Tropical Storm Alberto (1994) have caused a lot of damage and destruction to the US during El Nino/-AMO years. Will be an interesting year.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
326. StormTrackerScott
4:11 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 324. Webberweather53:



It bothers me that NOAA chooses to infuse monthly SST anomalies into their tri-monthly ENSO forecasts, aside from the fact that the CFSv2 has piss-poor physics, it doesn't make any sense why they don't use ERSST here, it's about .3C lower than the CFSv2's initialization. The erroneously high initialization is only going to hurt this model's verification scores...


Either way a 2.5C or 2.6C ENSO will surpass 1997's event by a pretty decent margin. Also with this WWB being the strongest ever for July expect a pretty significant uptick to SST's come 3 to 4 weeks not 6 to 7 weeks as there is a 3rd downwelling kelvin wave rapidly organizing near the Dateline which should be stronger than the one we just witnessed a few weeks ago.

To see these number crushing 1997's number is just ridiculous especially since there is already a near Strong El-Nino base already laid out!

This WWB crushed 1997's June event by more than a full point. Amazing.

June 30th 9.32 vrs 8.14 on June 11th, 1997


Philip Klotzbach@philklotzbach Jul 1

June 28-30, 2015 have all had stronger westerlies in the central Pac than any other day in June since 1979. #ElNino
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
325. JNFlori30A
4:10 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Overcast skies out here in NW FL.. June gloom in July
Hope everyone has a safe and happy 4th!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
324. Webberweather53
4:06 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 317. KoritheMan:



Even considering my skepticism, 2.5C is a LOT more believable than some of the 4-5C numbers the ECMWF members were spitting out before.


It bothers me that NOAA chooses to infuse monthly SST anomalies into their tri-monthly ENSO forecasts, aside from the fact that the CFSv2 has piss-poor physics, it doesn't make any sense why they don't use ERSST here, it's about .3C lower than the CFSv2's initialization. The erroneously high initialization is only going to hurt this model's verification scores...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
323. JustDucky251
4:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 314. Skyepony:

Longest flight ever is about to land in HI.

The 4,000-mile leg from Nagoya, Japan, to Hawaii is not only the world's longest solar-powered flight both by time and distance, it also sets the record for longest solo flight by time.

Solar beats out jet fueled for longest solo flight..

The live feed and all is here. Should land in ~17mins..


Solarimpulse has landed - safely.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
322. Webberweather53
3:59 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 300. WeatherConvoy:

WOW JRRP!! That MJO looks scary STRONG


The TC outbreak in the Pacific is projecting onto the MJO, the amplitude & timing of this event is very similar to 2002... Any warming we see in the eastern Pacific that's a direct result of this WWB is about 6-7 weeks away given the phase speed & periodicity of the oceanic KW...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
321. LAbonbon
3:58 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 308. KoritheMan:

Bonnie, I dunno if you're still around at the moment, but I only logged on today because I wanted to ask you if you ever got your car fixed? I'm going to New Orleans in two weeks and I was hoping maybe we could meet up before then. :D

Hey, Kori. Yup, sure did. And then it went back in the shop...came out...and went back in again yesterday. Just shot you an email.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
320. HurrMichaelOrl
3:57 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
I had a narrow "jungle garden" on the side of my parents former house that had a huge weedy paper mulberry tree sprout in 2004 and reach 50 feet tall and at least as wide by 2013 right in the middle of the garden. I also had a really dense loquat tree on one end under which all sorts of tropical shrubs, bushes and other vegetation was planted. One time I did the rain gauge experiment during a heavy storm with almost an inch of rain falling in the open area of the yard. The gauge on the ground under all that tree cover in the garden measured less than half an inch during the same storm!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
319. whitewabit
3:55 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 314. Skyepony:

Longest flight ever is about to land in HI.

The 4,000-mile leg from Nagoya, Japan, to Hawaii is not only the world's longest solar-powered flight both by time and distance, it also sets the record for longest solo flight by time.

Solar beats out jet fueled for longest solo flight..

The live feed and all is here. Should land in ~17mins..


Safely o the ground !!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
318. StormTrackerScott
3:54 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 317. KoritheMan:



Even considering my skepticism, 2.5C is a LOT more believable than some of the 4-5C numbers the ECMWF members were spitting out before.


One should remember the CFS & Euro do have a warm bias but still should give a really good indication where we are going. I was saying 1.8C for a max but I am changing that to 2.5C to 2.6C due to the fact we have the strongest WWB on record for July which will in turn cause a lot warming across the ENSO regions.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
317. KoritheMan
3:52 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 316. StormTrackerScott:



Anytime you see a WWB stronger than 1997 and I mean crushing the June 1997 WWB that should really raise a lot of questions for some on here doubting this El-Nino's potential. Like I said last night we are witnessing the same forcing that occurred in June 1997 but instead we are seeing it in July 2015 with stronger forcing combine that with near Strong Base foundation already laid means the models are likely correct and we may very well surpass 1997's ENSO.

Notice the spread is becoming less and less. I suspect we max out @ 2.5C to 2.6C. CFSv2 has 3C but I think that value is a little high.




Even considering my skepticism, 2.5C is a LOT more believable than some of the 4-5C numbers the ECMWF members were spitting out before.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
316. StormTrackerScott
3:50 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 304. Skyepony:

Scott~ ESPI has been moving fast this past week. It always moves in steps but to see it fall to 0.24 had me wundering about the volatility and certainty of this taking to the atmosphere. With the MJO & those storms in the WPAC I'd expected a quick move but wow.. The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is now 1.07. Should be an interesting week to see how high it goes. It does seem to be lagging a super el nino but at this rate of rise by the end of the week it could be indicating for it.


Anytime you see a WWB stronger than 1997 and I mean crushing the June 1997 WWB that should really raise a lot of questions for some on here doubting this El-Nino's potential. Like I said last night we are witnessing the same forcing that occurred in June 1997 but instead we are seeing it in July 2015 with stronger forcing combine that with near Strong Base foundation already laid means the models are likely correct and we may very well surpass 1997's ENSO.

Notice the spread is becoming less and less. I suspect we max out @ 2.5C to 2.6C. CFSv2 has 3C but I think that value is a little high.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
315. HurrMichaelOrl
3:49 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 311. sar2401:

I think the idea is that water would drip from the tree for long after the rain stopped, thus increasing the total precipitation. Of course, that only works if the leaf cover allows some of the precipitation through to begin with.


I've done experiments with this and found that the total precipitation under heavy oak canopy can be between 1/5-1/3 less than in areas with no canopy. I have, on numerous occasions, placed a rain gauge in an open area and under canopy 10-20 feet away. I wanted to duplicate the results of the experiment a number of times of course. The effect is greatest when we have a brief burst of moderate to somewhat heavy rain. The water takes time to trickle through the canopy and make its way to the ground to accumulate. The tree must deflect a bit of the water, somewhat like a (very leaky) umbrella while some is held in the canopy to subsequently evaporate. Any drip through after the rain stops does not make up for the full difference.

When we have brief passing showers or heavy rain for, say, 2 minutes, it is usually still dry under the thick canopies of the trees around here, even though the ground surface and streets will be wet/damp. It will remain dry in the absence of further rain with no significant drip through, save for a few drops here and there.

During prolonged moderate/heavy rain, and torrential rain from thunderstorms that lasts a while, the effect is minimized, but still very much measurable in terms of significantly less rain in the gauge. This effect will depend on how thick the tree canopy is and will be lessened (obviously) under trees with fewer leaves/sparser canopies.

This has been of particular concern to me lately, since I keep my collection of delicate orchids in aluminum cages under an oak canopy, otherwise they would fry to a crisp under the hot sun anywhere else in the yard. A passing shower does nothing as far as watering, so I have had to water a lot lately.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
314. Skyepony (Mod)
3:44 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Longest flight ever is about to land in HI.

The 4,000-mile leg from Nagoya, Japan, to Hawaii is not only the world's longest solar-powered flight both by time and distance, it also sets the record for longest solo flight by time.

Solar beats out jet fueled for longest solo flight..

The live feed and all is here. Should land in ~17mins..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
313. KoritheMan
3:39 PM GMT on July 03, 2015

Quoting 312. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Wow you know what is interesting, is despite the placement of that High in the Western Pacific which would certainly cause subsidence in that area, there are still tropical systems firing off at will. Now mind you they do have some of the warmest waters in the world, a larger ocean basin than the Atlantic, and they don't have the SAL to deal with. And of course the factors of El Nino is an added bonus for them when it comes to TC development like if they really need it. :P Just an observation that's all...
Subsidence is often strongest on the eastern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The movement/future tracks of these cyclones suggest that are moving under the more diffluent southern portion of the ridge, meaning less dry air and greater upper-level ventilation.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
312. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:35 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Wow you know what is interesting, is despite the placement of that High in the Western Pacific which would certainly cause subsidence in that area, there are still tropical systems firing off at will. Now mind you they do have some of the warmest waters in the world, a larger ocean basin than the Atlantic, and they don't have the SAL to deal with. And of course the factors of El Nino is an added bonus for them when it comes to TC development like if they really need it. :P Just an observation that's all...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
311. sar2401
3:29 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 261. MahFL:



How would you get more rain fall in a rain gauge under a tree ?
I think the idea is that water would drip from the tree for long after the rain stopped, thus increasing the total precipitation. Of course, that only works if the leaf cover allows some of the precipitation through to begin with.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
310. maxcrc
3:29 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Netherlands temperatures were ever hotter than in August 1944, the fact is the hottest area of Netherlands has no stations right now, the title's holder doesn't exist anymore and Maastricht official station was moved to the airport which has a cooler microclimate.
For Paris, also in 1947 nobody cared to water the terrain, while now the terrain in the Observatory area is constantly watered, this is the only reason why the record was not beaten, although it was warmer in 2003 and in 2015 than in 1947.
For Belgium, it is even worse, the shelter used at Uccle before 1983 was in no standard condition and the temperature was proven to be overestimated by 2.0 to 2.2C, in this case also it is safe to calculate how in 2003, 2006 and 2015 higher temperatures than in 1947 were recorded
Nearly 100% of old heat records are overestimated , in the best cases by just a couple of degrees Celsius, in the worst cases by more than 10C (including some official US State records).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
309. cytochromeC
3:24 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 301. ricderr:

an excerpt from How Predictable is El Nino.......a peer reviewed paper out of princeton

A recent analysis of 12 statistical and dynamical models used for El Niño predictions
finds that at the long (1-2 years) and even medium (6-11 months) ranges there were
"no models that provided useful and skillful forecasts for the entirety of the 1997-
1998 El Niño" (Landsea and Knaff, 2000). Most of the models were wrong in predicting
the timing of the onset and/or demise of El Niño, and unable to predict the full
duration and even one half of the actual amplitude of the event. An earlier study by
Barnston et al (1999) reached similarly discouraging conclusions. As regards El Niño
of 2002, the forecasts again cover a very broad spectrum of possibilities (Kirtman
2002). Why is it so difficult to predict El Niño? How predictable is this phenomenon?



Obviously supers are rare, and the odds low, forecasts unpredictable.

That said, things are really robust, and increasing.
A strong even is likely, and the only question if this one is going to be a super.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
308. KoritheMan
3:23 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Bonnie, I dunno if you're still around at the moment, but I only logged on today because I wanted to ask you if you ever got your car fixed? I'm going to New Orleans in two weeks and I was hoping maybe we could meet up before then. :D
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
307. sar2401
3:23 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 285. Storms306:

It is nice. However, in VA its hard to get. Don't forget the legal aspects of it.
Aftermarket window tint laws are a crazy quilt from state to state. California, along with about 15 other states, are the most restrictive, only allowing films that allow 70% of the light to pass through. Right across the border in Nevada, you can have much darker film, allowing only 35% of the light to pass. What's legal in Nevada isn't in California, and you can get a ticket in California even if the car is registered in Nevada. Window tint installers will happily install illegal tints because you're the one who gets the ticket, not them. Know what your state law says and make the tint installer hang a VLT meter on a window and prove his tint is legal. If you get stopped, the police are going to use the same type of meter to see if you are legal.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
306. KoritheMan
3:22 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 197. LemieT:

As I have been affectionately calling it, Scott's El Nino is looking like it will shut down the MDR before it has a chance to awaken.


If anybody expected differently, they obviously don't know what a cold AMO means. We never needed El Nino for that.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
305. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:21 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 297. LargoFl:


Tropical Waves are lined up, but with no convection as the SAL prevails. Looking down the line the 51-member Euro ensembles is showing some kind of inverted trough or TUTT crossing FL. in about a week. Considering if we have 2 Highs in place, one over the Great Basin and the Bermuda High this setup is quite possible, all this will mean is enhanced moisture and higher rain chances. Also, from a tropical note this is the time of the year we need to watch out for trough splits off the East Coast as well.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
304. Skyepony (Mod)
3:20 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Scott~ ESPI has been moving fast this past week. It always moves in steps but to see it fall to 0.24 had me wundering about the volatility and certainty of this taking to the atmosphere. With the MJO & those storms in the WPAC I'd expected a quick move but wow.. The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is now 1.07. Should be an interesting week to see how high it goes. It does seem to be lagging a super el nino but at this rate of rise by the end of the week it could be indicating for it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
303. StormTrackerScott
3:18 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 297. LargoFl:




Dr. Phil Klotzbach states SST's aren't even 26C which is a threshold to get a tropical system going. We maybe hard pressed to get anything this year out of the MDR maybe the Caribbean too.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
302. StormTrackerScott
3:16 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 299. WeatherConvoy:

You can clearly see in the Atlantic the signature of an Negative AMO with a ridiculously colder than average Main development region in the tropical Atlantic. All tropical systems that do develop this year has to be North of 23 degrees North Latitude due to the strong trade winds and high wind shear. Also the SAL is anomalously strong AGAIN this year. Anyway I think in New England this winter it will be VERY interesting because of a potentially Super NINO and a Strong NEgative AMO.



Happy 4th Brandon!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
301. ricderr
3:14 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
an excerpt from How Predictable is El Nino.......a peer reviewed paper out of princeton

A recent analysis of 12 statistical and dynamical models used for El Niño predictions
finds that at the long (1-2 years) and even medium (6-11 months) ranges there were
"no models that provided useful and skillful forecasts for the entirety of the 1997-
1998 El Niño" (Landsea and Knaff, 2000). Most of the models were wrong in predicting
the timing of the onset and/or demise of El Niño, and unable to predict the full
duration and even one half of the actual amplitude of the event. An earlier study by
Barnston et al (1999) reached similarly discouraging conclusions. As regards El Niño
of 2002, the forecasts again cover a very broad spectrum of possibilities (Kirtman
2002). Why is it so difficult to predict El Niño? How predictable is this phenomenon?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
300. WeatherConvoy
3:13 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
WOW JRRP!! That MJO looks scary STRONG
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
299. WeatherConvoy
3:12 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
You can clearly see in the Atlantic the signature of an Negative AMO with a ridiculously colder than average Main development region in the tropical Atlantic. All tropical systems that do develop this year has to be North of 23 degrees North Latitude due to the strong trade winds and high wind shear. Also the SAL is anomalously strong AGAIN this year. Anyway I think in New England this winter it will be VERY interesting because of a potentially Super NINO and a Strong NEgative AMO.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
298. JRRP
3:10 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
297. LargoFl
3:05 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
296. Skyepony (Mod)
3:03 PM GMT on July 03, 2015

Raw: Damaging Earthquake in Western China
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
295. sar2401
3:01 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 291. Skyepony:

It was removed because of what was quoted. Had nothing to do with holocaust.
Because what was quoted violated what community standard? I won't get into an arguement with you here but that still doesn't make sense.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
294. sar2401
2:53 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Quoting 284. nonblanche:



Oh, it's all Fallon. The girl who helps us on the farm, her grandma lives way down the other end of town off Soda Lake Road, and she's been insisting one of the local electrical repair firms did something to her wiring because she wouldn't pay three grand to have upgrades done. "Gramma, no, it's all over town like this."
Ah, if that's the case, time for you and the neighbors to start flooding the NV Public Utilities Commission with complaints. NVEnergy is mandated to provide reliable and safe power in its service area. Fluctuating line voltages provide neither. The last thing any regulated utility wants to see is the PUC on their back due to consumer complaints. This is especially true if any of the commissioners are trying to make a name for him or herself. Time for the community organizers to get to work. :-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
293. Skyepony (Mod)
2:49 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Large earthquake in China Friday morning. 6.4 with atlest four stong aftershocks. Atleast 6 died. It's early though & over 3000 buildings were damaged or collapsed.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
292. StormTrackerScott
2:47 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Just to give you an idea of how strong this WWB is we have on today's update on the TAO RAW westerlies moving into Nino 3.4 not just anomalies but true westerly winds. Also notice the 2C anomalies spreading more and more into Nino 3.4. There is also another Downwelling Kelvin Wave rapidly organizing as near 7C anomalies are popping back up.



Yikes! Also notice the westward expansion beginning to occur.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
291. Skyepony (Mod)
2:43 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
Heavy rains in OH flooded out an underground oil tank in a residential area. The nearby wells are to be tested for contamination.

Quoting 283. sar2401:

That's weird. Why would your post have been deleted? I thought it was an honest mistake, but your comparison was apt in terms of a person saying they never knew anyone or their family with heat stroke. Must have been that "H" word. We are getting way too nervous about such things.

It was removed because of what was quoted. Had nothing to do with holocaust.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
290. StormTrackerScott
2:43 PM GMT on July 03, 2015
There really is no reason why we shouldn't equal or surpass the 1997/1998 ENSO. Just remarkable how strong this WWB is and the GFS keeps trending stronger further east with each update. Amazing!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 340 - 290

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7Blog Index

Top of Page

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather