Disturbance 91L more organized, but headed out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:18 PM GMT on May 28, 2009

An area of disturbed weather (91L), located about 250 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. QuikSCAT imagery from last night revealed a closed surface circulation, but top winds of only 20 - 25 mph.

The disturbance is over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream (25°C) and has wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until this evening, when the system will begin moving over waters too cold to support tropical cyclone development. The disturbance will track northeastward at 15 mph today, and and is not a threat to any land areas. In a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8am EDT this morning, NHC gave 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 91L.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida last week, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Equipment will also be provided to local shelters and other organizations working with flood victims. To help out, visit the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 2. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Images credit: NOAA.

Jeff Masters

90L Air Mass Mammas (rondpilot)
These are some air mass t-storms generated in part by the influence of storm 90L that has been bringing lots of rain to S. Florida this last week. This view is from 35,000 ft over Tampa, FL.
90L Air Mass Mammas
Spider Shock (earthlydragonfly)
Taken with a 16mm lense this was a huge bolt that reached across the sky... Enjoy Mark www.shockpic.smugmug.com
Spider Shock

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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132. stillwaiting
4:52 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Is that area east of the interstate a fire or???
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
131. MarcoIsland
3:48 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
new blog
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130. DaytonaBeachWatcher
3:42 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
It will move east but shear is abotu 40 kts inbetween and wont change much until it passes florida so i wouldnt think much of it. Course here in volusia county we dont need the rain it might bring with it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
129. 7544
3:40 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
now watching texas blob no 2 i think thats the the one the gfsx was showing yesterday and again today as maybe getting to flaLink
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128. Nolehead
3:39 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
morning everyone, will this low that is coming out of tx into the gulf turn into anything?? looks like it might if it has any time to sit still....
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127. presslord
3:35 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Cane and Pat have WU mail

www.portlight.org
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126. MarcoIsland
3:31 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Anyone taken a look at Key West radar this morning? Looks like a line of storms will hit SWFL later this afternoon.

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125. WxLogic
3:27 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Morning... well just in time for the HURR season.
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124. Patrap
3:27 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
I sent ya a wu-note,..
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123. presslord
3:25 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
from your lips to God's ears on the weather tomorrow...I just turned 50 in Marc...and am feeling every decade of it...
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122. CaneWarning
3:24 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
I wouldn't mind seeing TD1 become Ana. It gets one name out of the way and doesn't really make much of a difference to anyone near the storm.
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121. Patrap
3:20 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
LOL..

Is it a year or so many months?

Seems the weather will co-operate for yer Graduation event tomorrow.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
120. presslord
3:19 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Pat...you may only be a year younger than me...but you're a heck of a lot quicker....
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119. CaneWarning
3:15 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Quoting Patrap:


One hundred days which changed the lives of so many...


Thanks. Good story. I'm in.
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118. IpswichWeatherCenter
3:12 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Quoting StormW:


The projected path keeps it in the Gulfstream until late tonight/early tomorrow

Anyone want TD1 to stay in the Gulfstream?
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117. NEwxguy
3:11 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Thanks Storm, I assume its organized so well mainly due to the fact its sitting over the Gulf stream. And as far as any impact,its keeps us cool and damp for the next day or so
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116. Patrap
3:11 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Quoting CaneWarning:
I wasn't around when Portlight was started...is it a WU organization?


One hundred days which changed the lives of so many...
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115. TheCaneWhisperer
3:11 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Quoting BrandiQ:


Not for very long.


Agree.

A name is a name though and I guarantee it wasn't included in anyone's seasonal forecast.
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114. CaneWarning
3:09 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
I wasn't around when Portlight was started...is it a WU organization?
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113. Patrap
3:08 PM GMT on May 28, 2009


ESL by LSU
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111. Cavin Rawlins
3:08 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
We have tropical depression 1.

Tropical Update (Will be Updated)
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110. BrandiQ
3:07 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


NHC is forecasting a TS at 35kts (40.25mph)


Not for very long.
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109. Patrap
3:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Ivor van Heerden cites policy lapses in Abita Springs talk

by Benjamin Alexander-Bloch, The Times-Picayune
Thursday May 28, 2009, 8:10 AM

Embattled public scientist Ivor van Heerden, who led investigations into Hurricane Katrina levee failures and whose forthcoming termination has been announced by LSU, spoke in Abita Springs on Wednesday night, reiterating his often repeated rallying cry that the Army Corps of Engineers failed in its duty to protect the New Orleans area.

He warned that scientists must be more integrated in public policy if future disasters are to be mitigated.

"What happened in New Orleans wasn't the natural disaster; the natural disaster was the trigger. The real disaster was the man-made structure, " van Heerden said. "If the levees hadn't failed, we wouldn't be talking about Katrina."

Van Heerden also briefly discussed his forthcoming dismissal, which the dean of the LSU's College of Engineering informed him of last month.

His nontenured appointment as a research professor will end in May 2010. He has been stripped of his title as deputy director of the LSU Hurricane Center. He remains director of the LSU Center for the Study of Public Health Impacts of Hurricanes until his contract ends next year.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
108. NEwxguy
3:04 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
It may not have time to get to Anna,its approaching some very cold waters, unless it stays over the Gulf stream for a while
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107. Tazmanian
3:02 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Quoting sporteguy03:


Becoming a trend isn't it?




sure looks like it



see you all later
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106. conchygirl
3:02 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Our first TD of the season and fortunately going out to sea and hopefully NO one will be impacted.
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105. Tazmanian
3:01 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
91L sould be name bills



has 90L sould have been name ANNA

oh well
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
104. FatPenguin
3:01 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
I believe someone mentioned a few weeks ago that if we get a named system in May it would be three years in a row - first time on record for that.
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103. stillwaiting
3:01 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
WoW!!!Td#1
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102. sporteguy03
3:01 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Quoting Tazmanian:
so if TD 1 gets name be for may ends this will be the 3dr year in a row that we had a name storm be for june 1st

may 2008 had a may storm



may 2007 had a may storm




Becoming a trend isn't it?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
101. Tazmanian
3:00 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
so if TD 1 gets name be for may ends this will be the 3dr year in a row that we had a name storm be for june 1st

may 2008 had a may storm



may 2007 had a may storm


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100. Patrap
2:59 PM GMT on May 28, 2009

TD-1 Graphically
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99. Tazmanian
2:56 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
why i be WOW



from RIP last night too TD 1 today and may be a name storm well now


if this be comes a name storm this will be the 3 or 4th may in a row that we had a name storm be for june 1st
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98. CybrTeddy
2:56 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
This is why we never RIP systems..
TD-1 looks likely to be named today.
our season yet again started early, earlier than last year's Arthur.
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97. sporteguy03
2:55 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Flooded Daytona Beach

Photobucket
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96. CybrTeddy
2:54 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
000
WTNT31 KNHC 281449
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
PASSED TO THE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS YESTERDAY HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT
310 MILES...500 KM...SOUTH OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND AND ABOUT 635
MILES...1020 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
OVER COLDER WATERS BY SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.3N 71.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
94. TheCaneWhisperer
2:53 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


NHC is forecasting a TS at 35kts (40.25mph)


Looks like they plan on naming it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
93. Tazmanian
2:53 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
000
WTNT41 KNHC 281450
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCICATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SINCE ABOUT 04Z THIS MORNING
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE 25-26C WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 12Z WERE
T2.0 AND T1.5...RESPECTIVELY. AN AMSU PASS AT 1033Z HELPS TO PLACE
THE CENTER ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/15. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS BASIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AT LEAST THROUGH 36 HOURS...WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LOSE DEFINITION IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.

VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS LIGHT...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIVING
OFF THE NARROW GULF STREAM WATERS. AS LONG AS IT REMAINS THERE SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW THE SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE INITIAL SST
INPUT TO THE MODEL APPEAR TOO COLD. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...A LOSS OF CONVECTION...AND
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...IS EXPECTED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 37.3N 71.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 38.5N 68.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 40.2N 64.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 41.5N 60.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 43.0N 55.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 31/1200Z 46.0N 46.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
92. TheCaneWhisperer
2:53 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Quoting BrandiQ:


I dont think the waters are warm enough but you never know.


NHC is forecasting a TS at 35kts (40.25mph)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
91. sky1989
2:52 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
TD1 looks good. Shear is fairly favorable and thunderstorms are directly over the center. I would not be too surprised to see it strengthen fairly quickly until it reaches colder water temperatures tommorow.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
90. Tazmanian
2:51 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
and wed 91L was RIP





ooops
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
89. Tazmanian
2:50 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
its now on the nhc
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
88. nrtiwlnvragn
2:49 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
000
WTNT21 KNHC 281446
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1500 UTC THU MAY 28 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 71.0W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 71.0W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 71.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 38.5N 68.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 40.2N 64.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 41.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 43.0N 55.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 46.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.3N 71.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
86. CybrTeddy
2:47 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
On navy site.
01L.ONE, TRACK_VIS, 28 MAY 2009 1415Z.
If you can't see it, press ALL.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
85. BrandiQ
2:47 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Quoting Tazmanian:
dos it have time to be come a name storm


I dont think the waters are warm enough but you never know.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
84. Tazmanian
2:46 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
dos it have time to be come a name storm
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
83. BrandiQ
2:46 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


And the same ones you see drinking it up at the bar on the news with 40mph winds picking up.


Thats true too.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
82. Tazmanian
2:45 PM GMT on May 28, 2009
well it looks like we now have TD 1
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather