Florida poised for a substantial soaking

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:03 PM GMT on May 18, 2009

An area of showers and thunderstorms is over the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, in association with a trough of low pressure. The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models continue to forecast that this disturbance will develop into an extratropical low by Tuesday. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it lifts northwestward over Florida. Up to nine inches of rain may fall over Florida by Friday (Figure 1), thanks also to a cold front expected to move over the state over the next two days. The exact timing and location of the rains over Florida are still uncertain, as the GFS model predicts development of the low over the Bahamas, while the ECMWF and UKMET models predict development over South Florida. At present, it appears wind shear will be too high to allow the extratropical storm to transition into a subtropical or tropical storm. However, if the storm's center emerges into the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week, wind shear may be low enough to allow a transition to a subtropical storm (10% chance).

Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet (Figure 2), which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.


Figure 1. Forecast precipitation amount between 8am EDT Monday 5/18/09 and 8am EDT Saturday 5/23/09. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 2. Water levels in Florida's Lake Okeechobee were under the level that triggers conservation measures between January 2007 - August 2008. Tropical Storm Fay then filled up the lake, which has gradually declined in level since, reaching water shortage management levels again in May 2009. Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

There has been little change to the large upper-level cold low spinning in the mid-Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. The low may spin in place long enough over the next week to develop a warm core and be classified as a subtropical storm. It is unlikely that a subtropical storm forming that far out in the Atlantic this early in the year would pose a threat to any land areas, with the possible exception of Bermuda.

Climatology of early-season Atlantic tropical cyclones
Tropical storms are uncommon in the Atlantic before June 1, with only 26 named storms on record between 1851 - 2008. Five of these have made it to hurricane strength, and only one--Hurricane Able of 1951--made it to major hurricane status. Last year's Tropical Storm Arthur may be the deadliest May tropical cyclone on record. Though only a 40 mph tropical storm at landfall, Arthur killed five people in Belize and caused $78 million in damage. Three early-season storms have brought hurricane-force winds to land. The March 1908 hurricane swept through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, destroying at least 24 boats and causing damage to buildings on St. Bartholomew. Hurricane Able of 1951 brought sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph to the northern Bahama Islands, but caused little damage. Hurricane 2 of May 1908 hit North Carolina's Outer Banks as a Category 1 hurricane, but also caused little damage.

List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms
May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur
May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana
April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1
May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1
May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1
May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha
May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene
February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice
May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1
May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1
May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1
May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1
May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1
May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1
May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1
May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1
May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2
May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1
May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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2027. canesrule1
11:22 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
Quoting canesrule1:
I'll will try, just woke up still in the clouds:-)
WHO THE HELL ARE YOU TO BE USING MY ACCOUNT!!!
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2026. canesrule1
11:21 PM GMT on June 11, 2009
someone is using my account!!!Who the hell is using me account!!!
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2025. nchurricane
1:16 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
NHC extended there cyclone development watch circle and it now covers all of the bahamas and parts of Florida
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2024. nchurricane
1:13 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
good morning everyone
Cloudy with breezy conditions
gusts up to 25 on the coast here in NC
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2023. gordydunnot
1:06 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Little spin coming off N. Colombian coast headed nw towards sw Caribbean not much but this is where June storms normally come from. All surface buoys around S. Fl. east and west are rising or neutral.
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2022. southfla
1:06 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
New Blog
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2020. StormJunkie
1:02 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Morning all

UN-METEOROLOGICAL - very nice nrti :~)lol

Looks like the mess is simply going to stay a mess...
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2018. melwerle
12:58 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
well Berg is a party pooper. Nice way to kill the blog! :)

Morning Storm!
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2017. Cavin Rawlins
12:56 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191233
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
830 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS BECOMING
ABSORBED BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER FLORIDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELED. IN ADDITION...LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NON-TROPICAL
LOW OVER FLORIDA IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


well well, one part down.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2015. stillwaiting
12:54 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
right now its a broad area of low pressure over the FL area,just as predicted...if it can consolodate and fully close off we'll have the first named storm of 09....for now have fun tracking the many mid-level swirls embeded in the ULL rainbands,can see it now:COC here,COC there,COC's everywhere...don't fall for it be paitent or you'll and up going crazy tracking MLL's,lol.....for atleast the next 24hrs its just wait and see(a wet and windy one at that)......
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2014. 21N71W
12:49 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Morning All,
wow what a night here in the Turks and Caicos Islands: pouring rain for hours on end , lightning, thunder like you would not believe... flooding in some parts...
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2013. stillwaiting
12:48 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
rainy,cool and a bit gusty 15-20mph here in srq this morning.......somethings brewing in the gulf!!!!....anyone have any guesses on docs next blog posts name???......."Chances of a STS effecting FL becoming more likely"....I think he'll go w/something along those lines....
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2012. Ossqss
12:47 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Discussion link

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2011. eye2theskies
12:46 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Morning all... No rain here in Ft Myers since around 6ish last night. 72 and muggy, and the clouds are pretty impressive to the north. Looks like they're working their way back south.
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2010. HurricaneTampaBay
12:45 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Hello Everyone. I'm new, and I like to chase storms.

Windy here in Saint Petersburg, gusts
of 25-35 mph easily.
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2009. weathermanwannabe
12:42 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Good Morning All.......Very complex weather pattern around Florida this morning....My guess?...The dominant low is clearly (on the loops) deepening just off-shore of SW Florida, but, I'm not so sure about any significant development (other than a wind/gradient/rainmaker) given the proximity to land/almost over land right now and the significant dry air being sucked in on the West side....However, it does look like it is breaking off from the Trof so steering currents, and, shear levels if it can maintain over water at some point will determine the outcome....The moist Atlantic side may "save it" vs, the very dry/cool Gulf side which may prevent it from developing into anything tropical......JMHO
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2008. IKE
12:42 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Quoting docrod:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191233
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
830 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS BECOMING
ABSORBED BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER FLORIDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELED. IN ADDITION...LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NON-TROPICAL
LOW OVER FLORIDA IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Just as I suspected...bye-bye 90L.

GOM low has a chance. Whether it's classified or not, doesn't really matter.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2007. docrod
12:40 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191233
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
830 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS BECOMING
ABSORBED BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER FLORIDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELED. IN ADDITION...LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NON-TROPICAL
LOW OVER FLORIDA IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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2006. G35Wayne
12:39 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
bring on the tropicanes!
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2005. nrtiwlnvragn
12:37 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Excerpts from the 00Z Model Diagnostic Discussion

DEEP CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GFS/CANADIAN OUTRUN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND LOOK UN-METEOROLOGICAL AS THEIR SURFACE LOW OUTPACES ITS UPPER LEVEL PORTION...MOVING WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE IT COULD EVOLVE INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS 500 HPA/SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS REACH MINIMAL CRITERIA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO /40C DIFFERENCE/ LATE TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS CONSIDERED A LOW
PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME...KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION THROUGH THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS/DISCUSSIONS ISSUED BY TPC AND FORECASTS FROM OPC.

WEAK LOW MOVING FROM NORTHEAST OF CUBA/THE BAHAMAS INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY...

PER COORDINATION WITH TPC...WILL HAVE A SECOND SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE BAHAMA CHAIN
INTO THE TREASURE COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. OCEAN TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TOO COOL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT UPON THE FINAL LEG OF ITS JOURNEY
INTO THE SUNSHINE STATE FROM THE BAHAMAS...AND IT IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2004. WarEagle8
12:37 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
My joints are telling me something is brewing ....I am west of Tampa near the GOM on the w coast of FL.
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2003. stillwaiting
12:25 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
now that there's a bone-a-fide ull in the SEGOM...we'll have to see if it can consoldate its convection towards a center. and completely cut off from the front....STS????
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2001. MahFL
12:25 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
JAX afd.
..."MODELS SHOWS CUT-OFF MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
FL TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE W WHILE AT SFC LOW PRESSURE S OF THE
AREA MOVES INTO THE SE GULF TO POSSIBLE LOW JUST OFF THE E COAST
OF FL WILL MOVE WWD AS WELL"

So thats kind of saying low pressure and a low and a mid and an upper level low. All players in the overall synoptics.
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2000. KendallHurricane
12:18 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
anyone have any ideas to throw out here in regards to 90L i have heard its rip and that its going to be subtropical ?????? any predictions ???????
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1999. canesrule1
12:16 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Quoting KendallHurricane:
no problem just have a little consistency :)
I'll will try, just woke up still in the clouds:-)
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1998. nrtiwlnvragn
12:16 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Quoting IKE:
Still no 6Z GFDL or HWRF runs...a chance 90L, where it was, is RIP.


Not yet.... sometimes they don't run the models on an invest at 06Z, they did it a few times last year. When they post an invest.delete you will know its RIP.
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1997. KendallHurricane
12:15 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Quoting canesrule1:
sorry haven't smelled the coffee yet, not going crazy though, don't know why I would say TD by this afternoon, my bad.
no problem just have a little consistency :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1996. DaytonaBeachWatcher
12:15 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
llc = low level circulation
coc = center of circulation (usually not at the surface, otherwise it would be referred to as the llc)

Surface low = just that a low at the surface
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1995. hurricanemaniac123
12:12 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
What's the difference between the LLC, COC, and surface low?
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1994. TheCaneWhisperer
12:12 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Morning All. It's going to be a long rainy week here in FL

24hr forecast

48hr forecast

72hr forecast
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1993. canesrule1
12:12 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Quoting KendallHurricane:
then why did you say it was going to be a td by the end of today??????
sorry haven't smelled the coffee yet, not going crazy though, don't know why I would say TD by this afternoon, my bad.
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1992. KendallHurricane
12:11 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
any ideas on the low just south of key west and the one coming off the west central coast of florida near st pete.
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1991. canesrule1
12:10 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
000
AXNT20 KNHC 191053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST
ABOUT 10 KT. THE POSITION OF THE WAVE AT 19/0600 UTC HAS BEEN
PUSHED TO THE EASTWARD IN ORDER TO APPEAR TO AGREE MORE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE WAVE'S
REPRESENTATION IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS OF YESTERDAY SHOWS THAT IT WAS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AND NOT
EASY TO DISCERN IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHERN LIBERIA COAST NEAR 4N7W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 26W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S47W. ISOLATED AND
DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT SOUTH FLORIDA-
TO-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO-TO-SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT NOW HAS MOVED INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO TAMPA FLORIDA TO APALACHEE BAY
OF FLORIDA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE OPEN
GULF WATERS ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CUBA/BAHAMAS-TO-SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH THAT SPENT 3 TO 4 DAYS IN
NEARLY THE SAME LOCATION FINALLY HAS MOVED EASTWARD. THE TROUGH
NOW EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.
THE TROUGH HAS BEEN PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND THAT NOW THAT IS RELATED TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN
THE EASTERN AND WESTERN ENDS OF THE ISLAND.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WHOLE SCENARIO OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IS DEVELOPING
COMPARATIVELY MORE AND MORE EACH DAY. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS
FORMED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A 1010 LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS CURRENTLY IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RAGGED ISLAND
RANGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RANGE FROM THE WATERS BETWEEN
ANDROS ISLAND AND SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS...
AND FROM THE TURKS ISLANDS TO LONG ISLAND/RUM CAY/CROOKED ISLAND.
THE SAME DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 31N52W. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
31N54W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 34N49W
AND 31N46W. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS ALONG 31N46W 22N50W 18N60W
18N65W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 18N65W...TO NORTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE RAGGED
ISLAND RANGE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CUTS ACROSS
THE TOP OF THE AREA OF THE FRONT.

$$
MT
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1990. connie1976
12:10 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
I am so glad that I didn't have to take my oldest to school in the rain.....now, it can go back raining...lol....it's very dark outside....
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1989. KendallHurricane
12:09 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Quoting canesrule1:
I am not going to take it out of the question, but i don't think they are going to send the HH
then why did you say it was going to be a td by the end of today??????
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1988. canesrule1
12:08 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Quoting stoormfury:
recon is on standby should the system show improve signs of organisation
I am not going to take it out of the question, but i don't think they are going to send the HH
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1987. KendallHurricane
12:07 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Quoting stoormfury:
recon is on standby should the system show improve signs of organisation
i really dought that recon will go in there today unless something really really big happens
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1986. canesrule1
12:07 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Quoting Funkadelic:
hey all... I am back again ( I was Ny mets) I changed my account. So I look forward to bringing people updates as hurricane season approaches us. I am living in Deerfield beach florida, and the sky is black but no rain yet...

By the way is it possible florida may see a tropical cyclone this week? I see 90L is confusing.
Same here in miami, black clouds and now rain, welcome back and good morning by the way.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1985. IKE
12:06 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Still no 6Z GFDL or HWRF runs...a chance 90L, where it was, is RIP.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1984. stoormfury
12:06 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
recon is on standby should the system show improve signs of organisation
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1982. canesrule1
12:04 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Quoting stoormfury:
it appears from recent sat pics that the low over florida is getting better organise and will soon engulf 90L
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1981. AstroHurricane001
12:03 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Hmm, there appears to be an abnormally warm loop of warm surface water in the Gulf Stream south of Nova Scotia, located near 39N, 64W. Maximum water temperature is about 30C (86F). If a tropical storm passes over that while it's still intact, there could be some strengthening.
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1980. IKE
12:03 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Listed as 1008 mb's(west coast low), on the NCEP fronts.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1979. stillwaiting
12:02 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
It is very interesting what is happening over Florida this morning, not to mention the approaching 90L.

Yesterday a low formed off the coast of Pinellas county and moved across the state out over the Atl off the coast of Melbourne around midnight last night. Now this morning the same low is back over central Florida (just south of Orlando and mostly in Polk Co) and is moving WSW back towards the central W Fl Coast. You can see this clearly on radar, and it's what's providing the West side of the state with the northerly breeze, and the east side with the southerly breeze... and all the moisture. I imagine that as this area of low pressure continues to slide westward that it will pull 90L up to the NW as well. Hopefully that low south of Orlando will be able to stay together as it heads back towards Tampa and develops heavier rain from afternoon heating.


the axsis of the ull is just north of key west area and is now finally starting to stregthen as it drifts ENE and then retro-grades back west possibly gaining some tropical charicteristics and a warm core,IMO....now would be the most likely time period for 90l to intensify as ULL conditions are more favorable then ever!!!!..today and tomorrow will be extremely wet over the Fl peninsula...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1978. stoormfury
12:01 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
it appears from recent sat pics that the low over florida is getting better organise and will soon engulf 90L
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1977. IKE
12:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009
Off of the west coast of Florida. I imagine they'll relocate 90L there or designate it 91L.

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather