marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 145 am PST Sat Nov 17 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
High pressure ridge axis remains just west of the pz5 and northern pz6 waters near 131w and is combining with a low pressure trough from the California coast to the Oregon and Washington coasts to produce relatively strong north to northeast winds up to 30 knots west of point St George as per latest 0548z ascat-b pass. These conditions are expected to diminish to 20 kt or less while lifting slowly N Sat and Sat night as the ridge shifts N and by sun mainly light winds are expected across most of the offshore waters. Mainly light winds will then continue across the pz6 waters into Mon. Farther north, a first cold front will move slowly across the pz5 waters Tue and Wed, followed by another stronger front approaching the pz5 waters from the W Wed night. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF look to be in reasonable agreement across the eastern Pacific through Monday night. For the new wind grids used the 00z GFS 10 meter winds through Mon night except intitially used the higher first sigma layer winds to more closely match the ascat winds.
By Wed the ECMWF forms a weak low off the coast of northern California along the front while the GFS is not showing this system. Most of the other guidance agrees better with the ECMWF so for now will lean more towards the ECMWF across the offshore waters after Monday night. For wind grids will use the GFS winds through Monday night, then transition to the ECMWF. Current forecast looks reasonable and will continue to carry no warnings across the offshore waters.
For wave height grids, will use a 50/50 blend of the 00z wavewatch and 00z ECMWF wam through Tue night and then shift to 00z wam Wed into Wed night as the 00z ECMWF is used for winds.
Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster Bancroft. Ocean prediction center.