marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 120 PM PDT Sat may 26 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
The 18z surface analysis indicated a warm front just west of the Washington offshore waters, with high pressure ridge centered west of the central California waters extending northeast to the Oregon waters. An ascat pass from around 1730z indicated several areas of 25 kt winds over the inner Southern California waters as well as the central California coastal waters which matches up well with model forecast fields.
The 12z models continue to be in very good agreement throughout with some differences appearing toward the very end of the forecast period. A trough will intensify along the northern and California coast the next few days, while the high pressure west of the area moves slowly east before weakening Monday and then reforming west of the Oregon/northern California waters later Monday and Monday night. Initially expect gales to be confined to the northern California coastal waters into tueday before expanding into the offshore waters and central California waters Tuesday night into eastly Wednesday night. Will use the GFS 10m winds through 00z Wednesday, the will use a 70/30 blend of 30m/10m GFS winds from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday. This will result in few changes to existing warning headlines. Looking ahead to the end of the week, the GFS is more progressive with a low approaching the Washington waters late Thursday and Thursday night. Will use the 12z ECMWF winds from 00z Thursday and beyond which looks to be a decent compromise.
.Seas...The 18z sea state analysis indicated that observed seas matched up well with the ECMWF wam and wavewatch. Will continue to use a 50/50 blend of wavewatch/ECMWF wam through 00z Thursday, then will transition to all ECMWF wam for the remainder of period.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. .Pzz825...Inner waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. .Pzz830...Inner waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.
.Forecaster kosier. Ocean prediction center.