Marine Weather for HS 102


marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 823 am PDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

Low pressure was W of the WA waters and is expected to move NE and into the NW WA later this morning. Prefer the ECMWF with regards to a track and depth of the system where it tracks somewhat further S with the low pressure today and then towards Vancouver Island later tonight. Will adjust seas higher over the WA waters today into tonight using the ECMWF wam through tonight which is higher than wwiii enp with associated seas and adjusting its output somewhat higher. There was a Jason pass at 11z although it missed area just W of the low pressure. Otherwise will not make any other changes to grids for the remainder of the forecast period.

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A high pressure ridge west of the pz6 waters continues to combine with a thermal trof over California to produce north to northwest winds up to 30 knots off of northern California with the strongest conditions west of Cape Mendocino. These conditions will diminish tonight and Friday and by Saturday winds up to 20 knots are expected west of Point Reyes. Winds will then increase again to 30 knots or so by Sunday night with the strongest conditions west of point St. George.

Farther north, one area of low pressure just north of the pz5 waters will weaken tonight while a second stronger low moves just north of the offshore waters Friday and Friday night. Winds up to 35 knots are still expected across the northwest portion of the Washington offshore waters Friday into Friday night. The low will then move inland Saturday. Northwest winds will then increase to 30 knots or so off the coast of Washington by Tuesday night as high pressure builds west of the offshore waters. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF look to be in reasonable agreement across the eastern Pacific through Tuesday. For wind grids will use the GFS 10m winds throughout with some minor edits. Current warnings look reasonable and few changes should be needed on the next offshore waters forecast.

For wave height grids will also use the enp version of the nww3 throughout the forecast period.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.


.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz900...outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale tonight.

.Pz6 California waters... None.


.Forecaster Rowland/nolt. Ocean prediction center.

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