.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Low pressure over the central waters will move east while another low pressure near the Great Lakes will will move east toward the northern waters in the short term. Another low pressure will form over the southeastern states and move east across the southern waters in the extended period. Latest satellite images show mainly clear skies over the southern waters but fairly cloudy with intense lightning over the Baltimore Canyon. The images also show a band of very intense lightning approaching the mid Atlantic and southeastern states. Latest NCEP weather map has low pressure 1014 mb over the delmarvawith its warm front stretching east across. Weakening high pressure 1026 mb just northeast of the region extends a weak ridge south and lies just east of the Baltimore Canyon. Pressure gradient is currently relaxed over the waters.
Seas are relatively small across the region and they range between 3 and 6 ft over the southern waters and 6 to 9 ft over the central and northern waters with a peak at 12 ft over the central waters. Nww3 model generally fits the seas pattern but slightly underdone on the peak value over the central waters. Ecmwfwave is also close to the observed seas and is in a good agreement with nww3 in the short term on keeping relatively higher seas over the central waters and gradually shifting peak values to northern waters. Will use wna for seas in the short term then blend with wam in the extended period.
Models GFS/ecmwfhr/ukmethr/NOGAPS/CMC have initialized well the general surface synoptic features with small differences mainly on the actual position of the low center over the waters. Even with these small differences, the models agree well in the short term on increasing winds to gale force threshold over the northern waters. There are also some differences on the timing and track of the low pressure that will approach the waters from the southwest in the extended period. CMC has low pressure moving farthest north across the central waters while GFS and ecmwfhr have low across the southern waters with ecmwfhr slightly north of GFS path. Ukmethr has it moving along the southern edge of the forecast region. Otherwise, models agree that winds will be elevated again in the extended period. Will use GFS in the short term and then ecmwfhr in the extended period.
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The latest model guidance indicates that a warm front currently across the northern and central nt2 waters will move north tonight. Low pressure is still expected to form along the front by Sunday night, then move east of the offshore waters by late Monday. Still expect minimal gale conditions ahead of the warm front by Sunday night across portions of the nt1 waters. Low pressure will then move off the southeast coast of the United States by Tuesday night and move across the southern nt2 waters Tuesday night and Wednesday. The low should be strong enough to produce some storm conditions over the southern nt2 waters by Wednesday. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF look to be in reasonably good agreement across the western Atlantic through late Wednesday.
After Wednesday as the low moves east of the offshore waters, the ECMWF keeps the low farther south than the GFS. The latest Canadian model is in better agreement with the ECMWF, so for now will favor the ECMWF solution after late Wednesday. For wind grids will use the GFS winds through late Wednesday, then transition to the ECMWF. Current warnings look reasonable and few changes should be needed on the next offshore waters forecast.
By Tuesday night and Wednesday the ECMWF wam is showing slightly higher seas than the nww3 across the southern nt2 waters as the low moves through. For wave he