Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 ktwc 292141
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
241 PM MST sun Mar 29 2020
Synopsis...another weak system will pass through the region
today into Monday, but will be dry. By Tuesday, temperatures will
rise into the 80s for many locations with continued dry weather.
This will continue through the rest of the week.
Discussion...partly sunny to mostly cloudy conditions this
afternoon with high clouds moving across the areas. Even with the
cloud cover afternoon temperatures were running 5 to 10 degrees
warmer than Saturday.
Less cloud cover tonight under westerly flow aloft as a weak
shortwave trof moves across the state. Monday will have less
cloud cover with high temperatures similar to what occurred today.
Much warmer on the last day of the month, but the question is how
much warmer. Increasing cloud cover may keep afternoon temperatures
from reaching their potential per increasing low level thickness
values. For now I went with what I inherited but wouldn't be
surprised to see some locations end up being a couple of degrees
warmer than forecast.
For the remainder of the work week into next weekend, several
weather system will pass by to our north, kicking up a breeze from
time to time with little day-to-day change in high temperatures.
Aviation...valid through 31/00z.
Broken-overcast clouds at or above 20k ft mean sea level thru 31/01z, then clearing from west
to east with few-scattered clouds at or above 20k ft mean sea level by 31/04z. Southerly/southwesterly surface
wind at 10-18 kts and gusts to around 25 kts thru 31/02z. Surface wind
diminishing aft 31/02z, with surface wind generally less than 10 kts
thru the remainder of the forecast period. Aviation discussion not
updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...dry weather will continue across most the area
the next 7 days, with the exception of a slight chance of showers in
the White Mountains next weekend. Expect slightly below normal
temperatures through Tuesday, then temperatures will warm to 3-5
degrees above normal Wednesday into next weekend. Afternoon relative
humidity values will fall into the 8-15% range most of this week.
Breezy southwest winds will continue across eastern areas into the
early evening hours tonight, with afternoon northwest breezy winds
in the upper Gila River valley on Monday. Some elevated winds are
also possible during the middle of the week.