Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 ktsa 172244 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
544 PM CDT sun may 17 2020


concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through mid morning
tomorrow, with wind speeds becoming light overnight. MVFR ceilings
continue to look likely at xna/fyv/rog from mid to late morning
through the afternoon. Currently think that the MVFR ceilings will
remain east of bvo, but will keep a scattered mention due to the likely


Previous discussion... /issued 252 PM CDT sun may 17 2020/

northerly winds transporting drier air into eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas continued to spread southward behind the
departing cold front and low pressure system pushing eastward out
of Arkansas. At the same time...another closed low pressure system
currently centered over Iowa was slowly drifting southeast with
scattered cumulus clouds moving southward over northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas. Current thinking is for these clouds to
continue to move into the region this afternoon...and possibly
scatter out this evening for a period before filling in again over
parts of far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the
closed low continues its southeastward trajectory. In
response...low temps tonight could be held up slightly over these
locations. However...with the drier air and subsiding winds lows
in the low to mid 50s still look possible for most locations. Some
upper 40s will also be possible within the normal cool
spots...especially before cloud cover increases in far northwest

For the first half of the work week...the closed low is progged
make it near the Ohio River valley by Tuesday morning...while
another longwave trof moves onshore over the western Continental U.S..
between these two features...a ridge of high pressure is expected
to set up across the plains with upper level northwesterly flow
over the County Warning Area. This will allow for near seasonal average high
temperatures and cool overnight temperatures through Wednesday.
Also during this time...a surface boundary is forecast to
position itself near the Red River...which could allow for
isolated precip Tuesday/Wednesday. However...with uncertainty on
where exactly this boundary sets up and available moisture from
the north to easterly surface winds north of the boundary...will
hold off on adding pops to far southeast Oklahoma for now.

During the second half of the week...the low pressure system
having dropped southeast into the southeast U.S. Is forecast to
finally begin lifting northeast. This will allow for the ridge
over the plains to break down and the wave over the western Continental U.S.
To begin trekking eastward into the plains. The result for the
County Warning Area will be a warming trend into the weekend as southerly flow
transporting low level moisture returns to the region. Within the
more zonal/west southwesterly upper flow...a couple of vort maxes
look to push across the region with shower and thunderstorm
chances becoming possible Thursday into the weekend for the County Warning Area.


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations