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fxus63 kbis 291706 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1206 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2020

Update...

Issued at 1203 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2020

Updated hourly weather elements with latest obs and trends. No
changes needed to the forecast for today.



Update
issued at 1007 am CDT sun Mar 29 2020

The forecast for today remains on track. A beautiful Spring day
ahead with light winds, plenty of sunshine, and mild
temperatures.

Update issued at 618 am CDT sun Mar 29 2020

Latest satellite imagery shows a clear sky, except from Mandan
south to Selfridge where a mid level overcast condition continues
to slowly shift south. This is in association with a departing mid
level shortwave which will be near Lemmon, South Dakota by around
sunrise. Expect clouds to continuously decrease here with a clear
sky elsewhere.

&&

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 539 am CDT sun Mar 29 2020

Latest satellite imagery shows a mid level overcast condition from
Dickinson to Bismarck, and from Hettinger to Fort Yates. This is
in association with a 700mb shortwave now located over Dickinson
and is forecast to reach Lemmon, South Dakota by 12z Sunday. Thus,
expect the clouds to continue a southeast movement and should be
south of the border by sunrise. Otherwise, a decent amount of dry
air through the atmospheric column today. Heights rise as an
amplifying 700mb-500mb ridge builds across western and central
North Dakota. Winds will be light, with the best low level warm
air advection across the west, with generally a neutral temperature
advection across central North Dakota per 850mb temperature trends.
With ample sunshine today, highs will reach the upper 50s to around
60 west and central. The exception will be from The Turtle mountains
south through the James River Valley where highs will be around
50f. The mid/upper ridge shifts east tonight, allowing for a more
southerly low level flow with a clear sky continuing. Lows tonight
will range from the upper 20s east central to the lower and mid
30s elsewhere.

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 406 am CDT sun Mar 29 2020

Very interesting long term forecast. March will go out like a Lamb
and April will enter as a lion.

Monday will be our warmest day of the long term as low level southerly
flow and southwest flow aloft result in high temperatures in the lower
60s, except mid to upper 50s Turtle Mountains into the James River
Valley. Increasing low level moisture as southeasterly winds winds
draw up an increase in surface dewpoints, starting out around 25f
Monday morning, and increasing to 40f Monday evening. Expect winds
to range between 15 and 25 mph with plenty of sunshine. This warming
is out ahead of a significant upper low/trough that approaches
and enters British Columbia Monday/Monday night. A couple of leading
shortwaves via the southwest flow will move into western and central
North Dakota Monday evening/night for a chance of rain, mainly central
and north. The GFS shows a narrow strip of weak instability Monday evening
across the west, however, it appears this is where moisture/dewpoints
will be lowest per BUFKIT soundings. Despite some instability on
the Dickinson GFS BUFKIT sounding Monday afternoon, have opted to
leave out a mention of thunder for now based on the limited areal
coverage and overall convective elements.

On Tuesday, as the upper low makes its way into the northern rockies
Tuesday, it will send a potent cold front into western North Dakota
in the afternoon, then through central North Dakota Tuesday evening.
Rain will become likely as a band develops along and ahead of the
cold front. The GFS advertises around 400 j/kg of most unstable cape,
mid level lapse rates 7c to 8c/km, and 0-6km bulk shear between

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